Early pick- take top TE or wait?

[himmystyles 29]

Picking 2nd in ppr 12 man; when mocking I often see Mark Andrews available for my 3rd round pick, along with Keenan Allen/pittman/aj brown/zeke/mont. I will go workhorse rb in 1st then either evans or fournette at 2 assuming no one else falls. 
 

do you guys think having a top tight end is worth that selection in the 3rd over the others? I sometimes see Kittle drop to 4th and back to me so that’s an option. 
 

Format is 1 qb 2 rb 2 wr 2 flex 1 te ppr with bonuses for yardage. Thanks! 

[weepaws 2,460]

Not me.  I don’t see a need to draft a te until the double digit rounds.  Like qbs and kickers and def.  

[Super Cubs 132]

as a Kelce owner I say go for it.  

[JOHN 316 7]

Of the 100+ best ball leagues I've drafted in Underdog, Kelce is going late 1st, Andrews mid 2nd and Pitts mid to late 3rd.  From this it seems obvious that most managers want an elite TE on their roster and not afraid of the opportunity cost being lost on elite RB's and WR's.

[AxeElf 787]

7 minutes ago, JOHN 316 said:

From this it seems obvious that most managers want an elite TE on their roster and not afraid of the opportunity cost being lost on elite RB's and WR's.

This is just more confirmation of the general ignorance of your average drafter, and the intense need for assistance from phantasy philanthropists like Axe Elf.

[Ray_T 591]

you are picking in round 3. 

Andrews has a #24 ADP so you are getting him a bit laterr than normal.

at this point in the draft if the Best TE on the board is scoring anywhere close to the best WR on the board, I think you take him.    and that seems to be the case with Mark Andrews.

I'm not a huge fan of his QB but at the same time he seems to have a connection with Andrews and the #1 WR has left town.  I think they will be going to the well with Andrews Early and Often.    I think a smart D works hard to take Andrews away and force them to beat you in other ways, but I still think he has a great year (assuming good health)

I dont mind the pick.

I also feel there is lots of good value at WR in the later rounds this year.  so if you are going to take the chance with a Top TE, now is the point.  if you dont take a TE here or in round 4 you might as well go with the Weepaws strategy and wait to the double digit rounds.

The advantage of taking a TE here is that you will get WR production from the TE position.   that will make up for any losses you have by waiting a round to select your first WR.

[weepaws 2,460]

1 hour ago, JOHN 316 said:

Of the 100+ best ball leagues I've drafted in Underdog, Kelce is going late 1st, Andrews mid 2nd and Pitts mid to late 3rd.  From this it seems obvious that most managers want an elite TE on their roster and not afraid of the opportunity cost being lost on elite RB's and WR's.

Can’t help them, te are best served in the double digit rounds. 

[jrokh 569]

On 8/16/2022 at 11:01 AM, himmystyles said:

Picking 2nd in ppr 12 man; when mocking I often see Mark Andrews available for my 3rd round pick, along with Keenan Allen/pittman/aj brown/zeke/mont. I will go workhorse rb in 1st then either evans or fournette at 2 assuming no one else falls. 
 

do you guys think having a top tight end is worth that selection in the 3rd over the others? I sometimes see Kittle drop to 4th and back to me so that’s an option. 
 

Format is 1 qb 2 rb 2 wr 2 flex 1 te ppr with bonuses for yardage. Thanks! 

If it was Kelce in the 3rd I could see it, but I wouldn’t grab anyone else that high. I like Ptts in the 5th if he lasts that long, which sounds unlikely by your own estimation.

[Ray_T 591]

what round is waller expected to go?  I like him at his ADP a lot more than I liked him last year.

 

[himmystyles 29]

I see Andrews available to me at beginning of third regularly. If I pass on him I end up with cmc/fournette/Pittman type setup or cmc/evans/Allen or pittman. Occasionally kittle falls to me in the 4th or 5th round. Just Have a feeling it will come down to Andrews or evans/Pittman/hill. 

[JOHN 316 7]

14 hours ago, Ray_T said:

what round is waller expected to go?  I like him at his ADP a lot more than I liked him last year.

 

In Underdog, Waller and Kittle are going in the 4th.......... Waller (51), Kittle (54)

[Ray_T 591]

I actually dont mind either.  

Waller in my opinion has the same upside he had last year.   his season was derailed by covid and an injury.

in addition anything that could go wrong for that team did.  the most significant of which........#1 WR gets arrested for DUI manslaughter (or whatever the Nevada equivalent is)

 

[Candygram4Mongo 8]

Last year I went through a bit of streaming hell. The pain of a zero at the TE spot is bad. 

This season, I have the 2nd pick in a 12 teamer.

At the 2-3 turn, I face that choice of Andrews or Pitts vs Deebo/Higgins/Pittman etc.

Most of the summer, I've been happy to wait, looking at Kmet and his huge target opportunity available in round 8-9.

I've mocked waiting on TE, and I've mocked grabbing Andrews at 2.11. Generally, I like the rosters with those top 15 WRs with late round upside TEs.

As of now, that is where I have settled.

My thoughts on each TE:

Kelce: Elite, but at age 33, with a shifting offensive personnel around him, he's got super high opportunity cost.
Andrews: If he is 85% of last year, he would be worth a pick at 3.2 for sure. With the RB issues persisting, and his being the #2 target after Bateman, the door is open.
Pitts: Such promise here. Talent meeting opportunity. An old Marotta at QB and a feeble offense is the concern.

These guys that have ADPs in rounds 5-8  I am not taking. They are drafted among all of the WR upside players, and with those possibly elite QBs.
They have high week-to-week variability, could score 14, or could score 3. It's hard to use the value of a mid round pick on these guys.
Waller: Is he hurt? Holding out? Adams and Renfrow will not leave a massive number of targets for the TE.
Kittle: Boom/bust king. Great but brittle.
DSchultz: Made the very most of the opportunity last year. Word is he is JAG, but I could see him repeating his top 5 finish.
Goedert: Decent talent, decent opportunity it what will probably be a strong offense. 
Hockenson: Has yet to live up to his draft value. Not interested.

Guys I'm interested in based on ADP:
Dawson Knox: Buffalo offense will offer many oppotunities. Big boom potential.
Ertz: High powered offense, should be involved heavily, at least until Hop comes back week 7.
Cole Kmet: My target.  Talented. Weak offense, but should get loads of looks. As lead TE, touchdowns should come.
Freiermuth: Had some great weeks, but poor offense and 3 capable WRs vying for targets.
Albert Okwuegbuna: Word is that he is super skilled. With Russ at QB, could get high value opportinities. He had some bad press during training camp, but could hit.

Later guys, who I may have to fall back on.  I'd predict that most of these guys will come with multiple dud weeks.
Njoku: Touted as a sleeper. I'm not sure what about his situation sets him apart than most of these other late round guys.
HHenry: Someone has to catch TDs in NE right?
Higbee: Same situation as last year. Probably same meh results.
Gesicki: Forever unmet potential. 
Hooper: Another guy some people love. He was great that one season in Atlanta. He's been pretty invisible since.
Engram: Maybe a change of scene and better coaching will help. Big time butter fingers.
Gerald Everett: I like this guy, just because he's now in the Chargers offense. Hot take: I see him with most likely top 10 from this group.
Tonyan: Could get some vacated Aaron Rodgers targets, but also could not.
Fant: Talented, in lousy situation.
Mo Allie Cox: Good for one boom week, and 12+ duds.
HHurst: 6th year breakout? Probably not.
 

 

[weepaws 2,460]

7 minutes ago, Candygram4Mongo said:

Last year I went through a bit of streaming hell. The pain of a zero at the TE spot is bad. 

This season, I have the 2nd pick in a 12 teamer.

At the 2-3 turn, I face that choice of Andrews or Pitts vs Deebo/Higgins/Pittman etc.

Most of the summer, I've been happy to wait, looking at Kmet and his huge target opportunity available in round 8-9.

I've mocked waiting on TE, and I've mocked grabbing Andrews at 2.11. Generally, I like the rosters with those top 15 WRs with late round upside TEs.

As of now, that is where I have settled.

My thoughts on each TE:

Kelce: Elite, but at age 33, with a shifting offensive personnel around him, he's got super high opportunity cost.
Andrews: If he is 85% of last year, he would be worth a pick at 3.2 for sure. With the RB issues persisting, and his being the #2 target after Bateman, the door is open.
Pitts: Such promise here. Talent meeting opportunity. An old Marotta at QB and a feeble offense is the concern.

These guys that have ADPs in rounds 5-8  I am not taking. They are drafted among all of the WR upside players, and with those possibly elite QBs.
They have high week-to-week variability, could score 14, or could score 3. It's hard to use the value of a mid round pick on these guys.
Waller: Is he hurt? Holding out? Adams and Renfrow will not leave a massive number of targets for the TE.
Kittle: Boom/bust king. Great but brittle.
DSchultz: Made the very most of the opportunity last year. Word is he is JAG, but I could see him repeating his top 5 finish.
Goedert: Decent talent, decent opportunity it what will probably be a strong offense. 
Hockenson: Has yet to live up to his draft value. Not interested.

Guys I'm interested in based on ADP:
Dawson Knox: Buffalo offense will offer many oppotunities. Big boom potential.
Ertz: High powered offense, should be involved heavily, at least until Hop comes back week 7.
Cole Kmet: My target.  Talented. Weak offense, but should get loads of looks. As lead TE, touchdowns should come.
Freiermuth: Had some great weeks, but poor offense and 3 capable WRs vying for targets.
Albert Okwuegbuna: Word is that he is super skilled. With Russ at QB, could get high value opportinities. He had some bad press during training camp, but could hit.

Later guys, who I may have to fall back on.  I'd predict that most of these guys will come with multiple dud weeks.
Njoku: Touted as a sleeper. I'm not sure what about his situation sets him apart than most of these other late round guys.
HHenry: Someone has to catch TDs in NE right?
Higbee: Same situation as last year. Probably same meh results.
Gesicki: Forever unmet potential. 
Hooper: Another guy some people love. He was great that one season in Atlanta. He's been pretty invisible since.
Engram: Maybe a change of scene and better coaching will help. Big time butter fingers.
Gerald Everett: I like this guy, just because he's now in the Chargers offense. Hot take: I see him with most likely top 10 from this group.
Tonyan: Could get some vacated Aaron Rodgers targets, but also could not.
Fant: Talented, in lousy situation.
Mo Allie Cox: Good for one boom week, and 12+ duds.
HHurst: 6th year breakout? Probably not.
 

 

Nice. 

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

On 8/18/2022 at 5:15 PM, jrokh said:

If it was Kelce in the 3rd I could see it, but I wouldn’t grab anyone else that high. I like Ptts in the 5th if he lasts that long, which sounds unlikely by your own estimation.

Andrews outscored Kelce in 2021. Not saying I don’t prefer Kelce but once we are talking about round 3, I think either is good value. 
 

not really a fan of anyone else at adp unless you can get Schultz in the 7th. 

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

The thing is this- if you take anyone in that Waller/Kittle/Schultz/Goedert/Hockenson grouping chances are still good you are going to have to get them above their ADP because once those first few TE go others will follow suit and gobble up guys. Both my 12 team drafts this weekend I took Andrews 2nd and the tight end who went last in one (Schultz) went at 76...in the other the last of that group (Hockenson) went 74th. So in those 3-7 rounds it is basically "who do you like" and that might be a guy slightly above his ADP. 

If you go later than that you are given up maybe 40-50 points at the position potentially hoping to get more production from WR and FLEX which is not as consistent week to week and takes you away from "set and forget" tight ends.

It's a tough call. Best advice is feel out the flow of the draft and see where it goes and if you see running backs getting swooped up early it might be better to go RB/WR/WR to get that advantage. If it is mostly split then it's okay to step out on a big TE name and then look for high target candidates later on at WR and RB

[AxeElf 787]

1 minute ago, Sean Mooney said:

If you go later than that you are given up maybe 40-50 points at the position potentially hoping to get more production from WR and FLEX which is not as consistent week to week and takes you away from "set and forget" tight ends.

The best strategy is to choose a TE in the double digit rounds who will score as much as the higher ADP TEs.  Then you don't have to suffer that loss of 40-50 pts, and you still get a "set and forget" TE.

[weepaws 2,460]

6 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

The thing is this- if you take anyone in that Waller/Kittle/Schultz/Goedert/Hockenson grouping chances are still good you are going to have to get them above their ADP because once those first few TE go others will follow suit and gobble up guys. Both my 12 team drafts this weekend I took Andrews 2nd and the tight end who went last in one (Schultz) went at 76...in the other the last of that group (Hockenson) went 74th. So in those 3-7 rounds it is basically "who do you like" and that might be a guy slightly above his ADP. 

If you go later than that you are given up maybe 40-50 points at the position potentially hoping to get more production from WR and FLEX which is not as consistent week to week and takes you away from "set and forget" tight ends.

It's a tough call. Best advice is feel out the flow of the draft and see where it goes and if you see running backs getting swooped up early it might be better to go RB/WR/WR to get that advantage. If it is mostly split then it's okay to step out on a big TE name and then look for high target candidates later on at WR and RB

Double digit rounds and stream. Best ideal. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

Goedert, Hockenson, and Ertz are all going in rounds 7 through 9.  I'd rather take them and get a top RB/WR in round 2 and take one of them 5 or 6 rounds later. I like Freiermuth as well, going in round 10.  I think all 4 of them have a good chance to finish top 5.

[jrokh 569]

52 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

Andrews outscored Kelce in 2021. Not saying I don’t prefer Kelce but once we are talking about round 3, I think either is good value. 
 

not really a fan of anyone else at adp unless you can get Schultz in the 7th. 

Kelce is simply one of the 4 or 5 safest players in Fantasy. Andrew isn’t, not yet anyway. Regardless, I am likely going Pitts late 4th if he’s there or punting till much later. Really interesting article I read yesterday, think it was from Berry’s daily email blast, that said statistically, TEs drafted rounds 10-14 do better overall than ones drafted rounds 7-9, or something like that.

[weepaws 2,460]

11 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Goedert, Hockenson, and Ertz are all going in rounds 7 through 9.  I'd rather take them and get a top RB/WR in round 2 and take one of them 5 or 6 rounds later. I like Freiermuth as well, going in round 10.  I think all 4 of them have a good chance to finish top 5.

Like Freiermuth also with those young qbs.  

[weepaws 2,460]

5 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Kelce is simply one of the 4 or 5 safest players in Fantasy. Andrew isn’t, not yet anyway. Regardless, I am likely going Pitts late 4th if he’s there or punting till much later. Really interesting article I read yesterday, think it was from Berry’s daily email blast, that said statistically, TEs drafted rounds 10-14 do better overall than ones drafted rounds 7-9, or something like that.

Why wait to read that on roto, I’ve been saying that on here for 30 years now.  

[jrokh 569]

1 minute ago, weepaws said:

Why wait to read that on roto, I’ve been saying that on here for 30 years now.  

Didn’t read it on Roto. Do you even know what an email blast is?  Regardless, who can understand anything you say on here. You are the Bobcat Goldthwaite of this here forearm…

[jrokh 569]

34 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Kelce is simply one of the 4 or 5 safest players in Fantasy. Andrew isn’t, not yet anyway. Regardless, I am likely going Pitts late 4th if he’s there or punting till much later. Really interesting article I read yesterday, think it was from Berry’s daily email blast, that said statistically, TEs drafted rounds 10-14 do better overall than ones drafted rounds 7-9, or something like that.

Here is the exact quote taken from JJ Zachariason of Late Round Fantasy Football: " tight ends drafted in Rounds 10 through 12 have actually hit 14 PPR points per game at a higher rate since 2011 compared to tight ends selected in Rounds 6 through 9. The later-round tight ends got to 14 PPR points per game at a 13.0% clip, whereas the middle-round group has been at 9.5%."

[weepaws 2,460]

1 hour ago, jrokh said:

Didn’t read it on Roto. Do you even know what an email blast is?  Regardless, who can understand anything you say on here. You are the Bobcat Goldthwaite of this here forearm…

Yeah get them all the time, thank you mr roto news man. 

[gcmmidwest 98]

On 8/16/2022 at 4:56 PM, Super Cubs said:

as a Kelce owner I say go for it.  

Good job with hill gone Travis will be his security blanket resulting in just as many points as a top wr people saying wait will be sorry

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

4 hours ago, AxeElf said:

The best strategy is to choose a TE in the double digit rounds who will score as much as the higher ADP TEs.  Then you don't have to suffer that loss of 40-50 pts, and you still get a "set and forget" TE.

Yes we know you live in fantasy land where you just make up whatever you want. 

4 hours ago, weepaws said:

Double digit rounds and stream. Best ideal. 

No....you are way off. 

[weepaws 2,460]

3 hours ago, Sean Mooney said:

Yes we know you live in fantasy land where you just make up whatever you want. 

No....you are way off. 

Okay thanks. 

[Gepetto 987]

I drafted Mark Andrews who ended up producing as the #1 Tight End last year for 6% of auction budget and he's my keeper this year, so find the best value you can at TE and every position.

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

8 hours ago, Gepetto said:

I drafted Mark Andrews who ended up producing as the #1 Tight End last year for 6% of auction budget and he's my keeper this year, so find the best value you can at TE and every position.

Yup. Axe Elf will be here to argue this but your goal in fantasy is to maximize your spots as best you can especially at the front end and back end of the draft orders. Andrews maximizes the tight end spot nicely and doesn't hurt you based on all the numbers I've shared the past week. 

[polecatt 403]

19 hours ago, Candygram4Mongo said:

Pitts: Such promise here. Talent meeting opportunity. An old Marotta at QB and a feeble offense is the concern.

 

 

Actually Mariotta is just 28, which means he's in the middle of his prime. I know, it seems like he's 38 lol

I'm hoping for a little more consistency from Pitts this season. While his end numbers were pretty good last season, week in week out, most weeks he was pretty shaky. He really just had 3 good games. I think though, with a new QB, Matt Ryan never really used a TE, and not much competition, along with having a year under his belt, I think he's more consistent. He should be up there with Kelce, Andrews, etc.

[weepaws 2,460]

In the 14 seasons Ryan was Qb of the Falcons, in ff the Falcons had a te1 9 times.  

When he had a top te like Gonzales, Hooper, Pitts he used them.   

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

20 minutes ago, weepaws said:

In the 14 seasons Ryan was Qb of the Falcons, in ff the Falcons had a te1 9 times.  

When he had a top te like Gonzales, Hooper, Pitts he used them.   

Over the course of a season? Yeah that isn't true. I can only find back to 2012 but going from there:

2012- Tony Gonzalez

2013- Jimmy Graham

2014/2015- Gronk

2016-2020- Travis Kelce

2021- Mark Andrews

 

Ryan became a starter in 2008. So even if Tony was lead in all those seasons (probably was) it is a max of 5. 

[jrokh 569]

12 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

Over the course of a season? Yeah that isn't true. I can only find back to 2012 but going from there:

2012- Tony Gonzalez

2013- Jimmy Graham

2014/2015- Gronk

2016-2020- Travis Kelce

2021- Mark Andrews

 

Ryan became a starter in 2008. So even if Tony was lead in all those seasons (probably was) it is a max of 5. 

I think he meant a TE1, not the overall #1

[IMMensaMind 459]

My intention was to wait and see if Schultz would fall to me after round 6, but when Pitts was available in round 4, I had to take him. 

[weepaws 2,460]

24 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

Over the course of a season? Yeah that isn't true. I can only find back to 2012 but going from there:

2012- Tony Gonzalez

2013- Jimmy Graham

2014/2015- Gronk

2016-2020- Travis Kelce

2021- Mark Andrews

 

Ryan became a starter in 2008. So even if Tony was lead in all those seasons (probably was) it is a max of 5. 

Nine times with Ryan at Qb in ff did the falcons have a te1 in his 14 seasons with the Falcons, not the top te, but a Te1. I did forget Hurst in 2020 he finish the season a te1 in ff  

Thanks. 

[weepaws 2,460]

Just now, IMMensaMind said:

My intention was to wait and see if Schultz would fall to me after round 6, but when Pitts was available in round 4, I had to take him. 

Hope he has a great season. 

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Nine times with Ryan at Qb in ff did the falcons have a te1 in his 14 seasons with the Falcons, not the top te, but a Te1. I did forget Hurst in 2020 he finish the season a te1 in ff  

Thanks. 

So when you have a talented tight end you throw to the tight end?

What scintillating insight. 

[weepaws 2,460]

Yeah what you missed, of course, was the poster above making a comment that Ryan never really used a te, so I wanted to check that out, found out that in Ryan’s 14 season at Qb for the Falcons, the falcons had a ff te1 9 of those seasons.  

So that indeed shows that when he had a good te he did use them.  

I glad you found that to be helpful.  

Thanks.  

[rallo 132]

I'm probably a gomer, but I'm waiting, I like Tonyan, Hooper, Highbee, and Freiermuth a lot in the later rounds... I also think Brevin Jordan could ball out in some garbage time this year, and I'm keeping an eye on Gerald Everett.