J K Dobbins

[wolves111 69]

It’s been just a couple of years but it seems like a decade. The J K Dobbins hype is as bad as the Democrats aren’t Marxist lies. 
This guy has done next to nothing and for the last three years he’s hyped as the next Gurley.

Seriously, move on. He’s the most brittle rb who has a zero track record of success.

Why does this website continue to promote him?

[Ray_T 591]

10 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

It’s been just a couple of years but it seems like a decade. The J K Dobbins hype is as bad as the Democrats aren’t Marxist lies. 
This guy has done next to nothing and for the last three years he’s hyped as the next Gurley.

Seriously, move on. He’s the most brittle rb who has a zero track record of success.

Why does this website continue to promote him?

its because when he does actually play, he passes the eye test.

he looks like he can play if he can get himself healthy.

and honestly, he had a good reason to underperform last year.  he was coming back from ACL surgery.  looked subpar early in the year, had a cleanup procedure done and came back and looked great (again)

unfortunately he came back onto the PUP tough now its looking more like a contract dispute than an injury.  not sure what to make of that but I am inclined to think hes still worth the price  at his current ADP.

 

[GobbleDog 816]

1 hour ago, wolves111 said:

It’s been just a couple of years but it seems like a decade. The J K Dobbins hype is as bad as the Democrats aren’t Marxist lies. 
This guy has done next to nothing and for the last three years he’s hyped as the next Gurley.

Seriously, move on. He’s the most brittle rb who has a zero track record of success.

Why does this website continue to promote him?

[the spanker 28]

5 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

I whole heartily agree. 

[JagFan 97]

11 hours ago, wolves111 said:

It’s been just a couple of years but it seems like a decade. The J K Dobbins hype is as bad as the Democrats aren’t Marxist lies. 
This guy has done next to nothing and for the last three years he’s hyped as the next Gurley.

Seriously, move on. He’s the most brittle rb who has a zero track record of success.

Why does this website continue to promote him?

Stop Stalin and ask your question.

[Ray_T 591]

11 hours ago, JagFan said:

Stop Stalin and ask your question.

I dont think he really had a question.  he was mostly complaining I think. 

technically the question was asking why the website promotes him.  though that  felt rhetorical. 

either way I dont necessarily agree with every rating done here (or on any other site for that matter) , but I agree with most of the ratings here.

what I do is I tweak the ones I dont agree with for my own list and re rank the players accordingly.   the reason I use these rankings is because I generally dont have to tweak very many of the ratings.   I'd suggest the original poster do the same.  complaining about it seems senseless.  in general, these ratings are supposed to be the midpoint of the expected outcomes given situation, health, and the surrounding cast.   the reality is there is a range of values that is realistic.  sometimes the poster knows more about certain players and will stray from the midpoint of the expected range based on personal knowledge (which I do respect) so sometimes these rankings wont be similar to that of other sites or your own personal rankings.

you just gotta respect that you are not gonna see eye to eye with the rankings 100% of the time.   you see the guys here dont agree that often when we debate the value of players and that is to be expected.

and you do in the end need to sometimes assume that you are right and everyone else is wrong.

for me, when I see something like this, I do my research to find out why their rankings differ so much from my own (or from the rankings of other publications)   these are the areas where extra research is needed to confirm the website bias as being correct (or not). 

so I'd suggest you go do some research and tell us why you think they are wrong.   I've done mine and told you why I think their bias is reasonable.  I agree with the ranking.   it may be a spot or two higher than I'd rank him due to coming back on the PUP list but its reasonably close and I'm a bit more injury averse in my rankings than the website is.. (which makes sense to me)

either way, if you are gonna tell me the ranking is wrong, I'd like to know why.   so tell me why

if you know something I dont, I wanna know what you know

[GobbleDog 816]

30 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

technically the question was asking why the website promotes him. 

JK Dobbins Rb ranking (ppr)

Yahoo....... 20

FFPros..... 24

FFToday... 29

ESPN........ 30

[Gepetto 988]

I think Dobbins is rated high too, so I did a quick look at the main page and found this

FFToday's Take: While it not for certain that Dobbins is missing camp due to dissatisfaction regarding his contract, comments like this suggest that is almost certainly the case. While it is a shame Dobbins hasn't getting any reps in new OC Todd Monken's offense, he should not have much of a problem acclimating. Dobbins is set to explode for fantasy purposes this season with Baltimore embracing a more wide-open offensive attack - one that aligns with his explosiveness quite nicely. As long as he reports to camp in the next week or two, consider him a strong RB2 option with RB1 upside.

[Gepetto 988]

and this

RB Ranking #26 JK Dobbins

https://www.fftoday.com/rankings/playerrank.php?o=2&PosID=20&LeagueID=1&order_by=Rank&sort_order=ASC&cur_page=2

Outlook: After missing the entire 2021 season and more than half the games in 2022 with lingering issues, this is a big year for the 4th year back. There is no denying that Dobbins oozes talent and big play ability. He averaged well over 5.5 yards per carry in his career, and after getting a clean-up procedure done in Week 7, Dobbins returned in Week 14 to dominate the rest of the season, averaging 88 yards on the ground in the final five games. His combination of power and speed is similar to Nick Chubb, and with the added threat of the passing game, Dobbins will never see a stacked box.

Dobbins has also been the darling of the offseason, and seems to be everyone's breakout candidate at running back. As a coordinator at Georgia and the Tampa Bay Bucs, Todd Monken's system seemed to favor a lead back. This would be a huge break from the Greg Roman days of a 3-headed backfield, and just another reason to be high on Dobbins. With a check box in the talent, scheme, and health category, what's not to like about him? If Jackson and Gus Edwards steal a few less touchdowns down at the goal-line, Dobbins should easily threaten double digit touchdowns, and has nowhere to go but up in the receiving category.

Every arrow seems to be pointing up for the former Buckeye, but like that annoying tag on a new t-shirt, something is nagging at me. His contract situation could be an issue, but this will likely be a non-story come late July as he has absolutely no leverage. For me, it's still the volume. In order to truly enter elite (Chubb) territory, he's going to have a see 50-75 more touches than he's ever had in his career and STILL maintain that elite efficiency, or have a boatload of touchdowns. While there is certainly a path to an RB1 finish, I think he should be treated as a high end RB2 with a RB1 upside.

[IGotWorms 3,315]

I bit on the Dobbins hype last year

 

and I probably will this year too

[League Champion 1,593]

I didn't want to go there but it may be time to worry. It's getting really ugly 

[wolves111 69]

4 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I dont think he really had a question.  he was mostly complaining I think. 

technically the question was asking why the website promotes him.  though that  felt rhetorical. 

either way I dont necessarily agree with every rating done here (or on any other site for that matter) , but I agree with most of the ratings here.

what I do is I tweak the ones I dont agree with for my own list and re rank the players accordingly.   the reason I use these rankings is because I generally dont have to tweak very many of the ratings.   I'd suggest the original poster do the same.  complaining about it seems senseless.  in general, these ratings are supposed to be the midpoint of the expected outcomes given situation, health, and the surrounding cast.   the reality is there is a range of values that is realistic.  sometimes the poster knows more about certain players and will stray from the midpoint of the expected range based on personal knowledge (which I do respect) so sometimes these rankings wont be similar to that of other sites or your own personal rankings.

you just gotta respect that you are not gonna see eye to eye with the rankings 100% of the time.   you see the guys here dont agree that often when we debate the value of players and that is to be expected.

and you do in the end need to sometimes assume that you are right and everyone else is wrong.

for me, when I see something like this, I do my research to find out why their rankings differ so much from my own (or from the rankings of other publications)   these are the areas where extra research is needed to confirm the website bias as being correct (or not). 

so I'd suggest you go do some research and tell us why you think they are wrong.   I've done mine and told you why I think their bias is reasonable.  I agree with the ranking.   it may be a spot or two higher than I'd rank him due to coming back on the PUP list but its reasonably close and I'm a bit more injury averse in my rankings than the website is.. (which makes sense to me)

either way, if you are gonna tell me the ranking is wrong, I'd like to know why.   so tell me why

if you know something I dont, I wanna know what you know

There’s no confusion here. My issue is that people use this forum to gather research on players and this site continues to elevate a player who has accomplished nothing.

 

[wolves111 69]

15 hours ago, JagFan said:

Stop Stalin and ask your question.

You’re just a punk.

[JagFan 97]

1 hour ago, wolves111 said:

You’re just a punk.

Yep, you got me.  I’m just a punk that comes here to read FF opinions to get away from the everyday extreme political views (from the right and left).  I guess stupid just doesn’t appeal to me, but you do you bro.

[Ray_T 591]

2 hours ago, wolves111 said:

There’s no confusion here. My issue is that people use this forum to gather research on players and this site continues to elevate a player who has accomplished nothing.

 

well, I'm not sure I'd say hes accomplished nothing.

in his rookie season he played in 15 games, averaged 6 yards per carry and got 800 yards rushing and 120 yards receiving.   he  got very little play early and wasnt even the starter for much of that year.   arguably he may have been the starter for a handful of the late season games, but it really looked like a committee situation.

so he sits out the next year due to the pre season ACL injury and comes back the following year.   still recovering from a torn ACL he averages 5.7 per carry.  low on the TD I admit, but if you take that 520 yards in the 8 games and pro rate over a 17 game season, hes for sure a 1000 yard rusher.   so thats not exactly nothing.   I fully agree its a small sample size but look at those yards per carry.  your top RBs in the NFL, the bellcows average like 4.5 per carry.   hes averaging almost 6 per carry.   Thats crazy.    I agree with more play, his yards per carry should drop some.  but there is lots to like here.

Thats why people are liking him.   and we are only talking purely about statistics.   I watched one of his late season games after he had the cleanup procedure done and he looked like a stud in that game.   he passed the eye test for me.

once again, we are talking about a small sample size.  I"m not a Baltimore homer.  I dont watch a lot of their games.    but if he can stay healthy for a season, I think we will all find out why the websites love this guy in their ratings.

Thats all I"m saying.

 

[mark32esu 18]

I bit on him in the 6th round of a 12 teamer

[cmh6476 755]

https://www.fftoday.com/stats/players/17062/J.K._Dobbins

Look how many TDs he scored in 2020 between week 11 and the WC round.  Plus you were getting good yardage, and I don't remember who it was with him without looking it up, but he wasn't the bell cow.

Then he was projected to be one of the top backs in 2021 and blew his ACL, right?

Then expectations tempered last year, but he still started off ok splitting time.  But then when he came back in weeks 14 and 15, you saw it again what he was capable of.  And no one thinks much of Gus Edwards.

Friends, am I recalling much of this accurately?

 

[Ray_T 591]

11 minutes ago, cmh6476 said:

https://www.fftoday.com/stats/players/17062/J.K._Dobbins

Look how many TDs he scored in 2020 between week 11 and the WC round.  Plus you were getting good yardage, and I don't remember who it was with him without looking it up, but he wasn't the bell cow.

Then he was projected to be one of the top backs in 2021 and blew his ACL, right?

Then expectations tempered last year, but he still started off ok splitting time.  But then when he came back in weeks 14 and 15, you saw it again what he was capable of.  And no one thinks much of Gus Edwards.

Friends, am I recalling much of this accurately?

 

you are pretty close to correct (if not fully correct)

I think he was legitimately the starter for only a handful of games.    so the sample size is small (statistically)  but the signs are there for a possible breakout.

for me the Aha moment was when he came back from that cleanup procedure on his knee and came back and blew the doors off for a couple games there at the end of the season.

if his health holds, this guy has a lot of potential.   my only real concern is whether he is healthy.   the fact he came back on PUP was concerning but this also felt a bit like the situation in indy where this may actually be more posturing for a contract and less actual injury.

I cant say for sure, thats just what my gut tells me.   I have nothing to base this on other than some of the rhetoric that was floating around at the time which I will admit could mean absolutely nothing.

either way,  health remains my only real concern with this guy.

but I did draft him in one of my leagues here, so I'm about to find out.

[wolves111 69]

On 8/11/2023 at 11:46 PM, Ray_T said:

well, I'm not sure I'd say hes accomplished nothing.

in his rookie season he played in 15 games, averaged 6 yards per carry and got 800 yards rushing and 120 yards receiving.   he  got very little play early and wasnt even the starter for much of that year.   arguably he may have been the starter for a handful of the late season games, but it really looked like a committee situation.

so he sits out the next year due to the pre season ACL injury and comes back the following year.   still recovering from a torn ACL he averages 5.7 per carry.  low on the TD I admit, but if you take that 520 yards in the 8 games and pro rate over a 17 game season, hes for sure a 1000 yard rusher.   so thats not exactly nothing.   I fully agree its a small sample size but look at those yards per carry.  your top RBs in the NFL, the bellcows average like 4.5 per carry.   hes averaging almost 6 per carry.   Thats crazy.    I agree with more play, his yards per carry should drop some.  but there is lots to like here.

Thats why people are liking him.   and we are only talking purely about statistics.   I watched one of his late season games after he had the cleanup procedure done and he looked like a stud in that game.   he passed the eye test for me.

once again, we are talking about a small sample size.  I"m not a Baltimore homer.  I dont watch a lot of their games.    but if he can stay healthy for a season, I think we will all find out why the websites love this guy in their ratings.

Thats all I"m saying.

 

Well, you convinced me to give this guy a shot. I took him in my last two drafts. I'm trying to be open to others position and stop thinking I'm always correct. It's quite the challenge!

[drdelaware 7]

Dobbins - Possible torn achilles.

https://www.nfl.com/news/ravens-rb-j-k-dobbins-torn-achilles-texans

[wolves111 69]

Or I could trust my instincts going forward 

[jrokh 569]

Official now. Thankfully avoided him. Hope he recovers...

 

 

 

[easilyscan 559]

9 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Official now. Thankfully avoided him. Hope he recovers...

 

 

 

He looks exactly like Ray Rice

[cmh6476 755]

 

[cmh6476 755]

would be a better backup than CEH, if he could maybe stay healthy

[weepaws 2,460]

If he could stay healthy, he would be KC rb1.  

[Ray_T 591]

7 minutes ago, weepaws said:

If he could stay healthy, he would be KC rb1.  

if he could stay healthy Hed likely still be in Baltimore.

[weepaws 2,460]

21 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

if he could stay healthy Hed likely still be in Baltimore.

Not likely, he would be.  

[Maximum Overkill 646]

I'm a huge Dobbins fan but his visit with the Chargers didn't go so well. He's certainly worth a camp spot to see what he's got. 

[Ray_T 591]

1 hour ago, Maximum Overkill said:

I'm a huge Dobbins fan but his visit with the Chargers didn't go so well. He's certainly worth a camp spot to see what he's got. 

well, for this type of injury, most times a player will pass a physical less than 12 months after the surgery.   but it can take longer to get to a point where they need to be to be productive.

There have been notable exceptions to this so its not a hard and fast rule.

as of now, hes less than 12 months from injury (not sure how quick the surgery was after the injury)

to that end, I'd be surprised if he was given anything other than a backup role to start.   he can rehab further during the season and maybe be part of a committee once he is healthy enough to be productive.

of course he will want to start, so there may be a period of time where he sits until he adjusts his expectations

[Ray_T 591]

it is also worth noting that he may never be the same after the injury.   he had an ACL and LCL tear (grade 3) in the same leg ad the achilles injury.

so there is a real possibility that he may never be 100% right after this.

of course he will rehab and try to come back and start, but we need to be prepared for the possibility he might be a career backup or that his career may be finished.

[Maximum Overkill 646]

9 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

it is also worth noting that he may never be the same after the injury.   he had an ACL and LCL tear (grade 3) in the same leg ad the achilles injury.

so there is a real possibility that he may never be 100% right after this.

of course he will rehab and try to come back and start, but we need to be prepared for the possibility he might be a career backup or that his career may be finished.

That's my concern as well. He's had a couple very serious injuries already. At least he's still very young but I doubt anyone thinks he's a starter 

[polecatt 403]

At this point I would say he's little more than a low level spot starter.  That's being generous.

RBs that are still trying to find their place in the NFL after 3-4 seasons or so, with multiple injuries, not high odds he's gonna turn it around

[Ray_T 591]

1 hour ago, Maximum Overkill said:

That's my concern as well. He's had a couple very serious injuries already. At least he's still very young but I doubt anyone thinks he's a starter 

no.  but he likely thinks he is.

at the end of the day if a team can pay the price of a backup on a 1 or 2 year prove it deal they might be inclined to sign him with the hope he shows some of that upside hes flashed on one of the few occasions hes been healthy.

[cmh6476 755]

 

[weepaws 2,460]

Not a surprised.  I think Dobbins might not have a job on a nfl team this next season. 

[DocNiner 44]

On 4/2/2024 at 4:35 PM, weepaws said:

Not a surprised.  I think Dobbins might not have a job on a nfl team this next season. 

Good bet but there will probably be a team out that they'll need some depth at rb during.camp if injuries or something else goes on. He should consider himself lucky if a yeam picks him up and extremely fortunate if he were to get anywhere around 100 carries. He's proved he can't stay.healthy and that may end up being the case this year if he goes to some team. Dude is toast IMO, but we'll see

[Ray_T 591]

31 minutes ago, DocNiner said:

Good bet but there will probably be a team out that they'll need some depth at rb during.camp if injuries or something else goes on. He should consider himself lucky if a yeam picks him up and extremely fortunate if he were to get anywhere around 100 carries. He's proved he can't stay.healthy and that may end up being the case this year if he goes to some team. Dude is toast IMO, but we'll see

well, the odds are against him making a full recovery.   Lets just leave it at that.

[weepaws 2,460]

43 minutes ago, DocNiner said:

Good bet but there will probably be a team out that they'll need some depth at rb during.camp if injuries or something else goes on. He should consider himself lucky if a yeam picks him up and extremely fortunate if he were to get anywhere around 100 carries. He's proved he can't stay.healthy and that may end up being the case this year if he goes to some team. Dude is toast IMO, but we'll see

I hope he can make a healthy return, it’s to bad.  

[Ray_T 591]

13 hours ago, weepaws said:

I hope he can make a healthy return, it’s to bad.  

it is too bad.

when he flashed, he really looked like he was about to explode onto the scene.   but the guy could never string more than a couple good games together without getting hurt.

its a shame.   fully healthy he was electric