Trump talk only- no Eagles talk allowed (Steelers talk is OK though)

[Reality 3,096]

1 hour ago, Beaker15 said:

She isn't winning either NC or Penn

 

42 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Based on what? Your intuition? She’s ahead in both states. 

 

31 minutes ago, Beaker15 said:

No she isn't.   Polls underestimate Trump every election.  Trump will get over 300 electoral votes

27 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

OK. I actually think the polls are overestimating Trump this time, and really underestimating Harris. But we will learn shortly who is right. 

 

26 minutes ago, Strike said:

Based on what?  Your intuition?

Phenomenal sequence. 

[The Real timschochet 6,416]

2 hours ago, Strike said:

Based on what?  Your intuition?

Based on a couple of points: 

1. The pollsters were upset that they were so incorrect about 2016 and 2020. This time I believe they’re overcompensating which they did in 2022. They’re worried about the “hidden Trump voter” so they’re including that number but Kamala is still ahead. 

2. The pollsters are relying on what they call “likely voters” but this really discounts new voters particularly young ones. Call it the Taylor Swift effect. 
 

Thats my reasoning. I could be completely wrong; I certainly have been before. 

[HellToupee 1,586]

2 hours ago, The Real timschochet said:

Based on what? Your intuition? She’s ahead in both states. 

Ahead? How is anyone ahead

[HellToupee 1,586]

Oh I see further down the thread. The polesters

[Tree of Knowledge 1,701]

12 minutes ago, HellToupee said:

Ahead? How is anyone ahead

Technically, the Democrats have millions of ballots already collected and sitting in warehouses like 2020.  Yes, they are ahead.  

[Strike 5,186]

21 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Based on a couple of points: 

1. The pollsters were upset that they were so incorrect about 2016 and 2020. This time I believe they’re overcompensating which they did in 2022. They’re worried about the “hidden Trump voter” so they’re including that number but Kamala is still ahead. 

2. The pollsters are relying on what they call “likely voters” but this really discounts new voters particularly young ones. Call it the Taylor Swift effect. 
 

Thats my reasoning. I could be completely wrong; I certainly have been before. 

So...........your intuition.  Got it.

[The Real timschochet 6,416]

42 minutes ago, Strike said:

So...........your intuition.  Got it.

I’m not throwing blind darts here. I think my reasoning is sound. If you think I’m wrong tell me why. 

[jerryskids 6,564]

58 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Based on a couple of points: 

1. The pollsters were upset that they were so incorrect about 2016 and 2020. This time I believe they’re overcompensating which they did in 2022. They’re worried about the “hidden Trump voter” so they’re including that number but Kamala is still ahead. 

2. The pollsters are relying on what they call “likely voters” but this really discounts new voters particularly young ones. Call it the Taylor Swift effect. 
 

Thats my reasoning. I could be completely wrong; I certainly have been before. 

Do you have a link to the polls which add in a "hidden Trump voter" factor?

I absolutely believe it is a factor, but I'd like to know how they add it to their polls.

Many social circles, and social media circles, would ostracize you if you openly supported Trump.  Young men in particular are not going to tell their GFs that they are voting for Trump.  This clearly impacts the polls, which while they claim to be anonymous, many people choose not to risk it.  Supporting Trump is like Fight Club.  Rule 1:  you don't talk about voting for Trump.

The amount of such hidden voters, well, that is the question.   

[Strike 5,186]

1 minute ago, The Real timschochet said:

I’m not throwing blind darts here. I think my reasoning is sound. If you think I’m wrong tell me why. 

No.  Support your reasoning with data and links.

[edjr 6,578]

The Real Tim Crochet. That is what he should be doing.

[lickin_starfish 1,893]

https://babylonbee.com/news/kamala-safe-and-in-stable-condition-after-attempted-interview

[The Real timschochet 6,416]

29 minutes ago, jerryskids said:

Do you have a link to the polls which add in a "hidden Trump voter" factor?

I absolutely believe it is a factor, but I'd like to know how they add it to their polls.

Many social circles, and social media circles, would ostracize you if you openly supported Trump.  Young men in particular are not going to tell their GFs that they are voting for Trump.  This clearly impacts the polls, which while they claim to be anonymous, many people choose not to risk it.  Supporting Trump is like Fight Club.  Rule 1:  you don't talk about voting for Trump.

The amount of such hidden voters, well, that is the question.   

I have no such links. I have heard polling experts and various pollsters talk about this and argue that they are taking into account this time around. It is my estimation (what @Strike calls my intuition) that they are taking it into account too much. 
I actually think that it is the reverse of your theory- that in some rural and red areas you may be ostracized if you choose Kamala Harris. I believe this will show up in places like Pennsylvania and Georgia, just enough in red areas to allow her to win the states. 

[The Real timschochet 6,416]

32 minutes ago, Strike said:

No.  Support your reasoning with data and links.

I already have. In the last two days I linked to polls showing Harris ahead in North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Granted neither lead is comfortable but she IS ahead and if she wins either of those two states she pretty much wins the election. If you think she’s going to lose both of those it’s up to YOU to demonstrate why since the data is against you. 

[Tree of Knowledge 1,701]

I can’t believe there are enough trannies, ghays, slow adults, MSM devouring guppies, feminist lunatics, pro-abortion sickos, climate change dopes and wards of the state for her to build a winning coalition.

[The Real timschochet 6,416]

Just now, Tree of Knowledge said:

I can’t believe there are enough trannies, ghays, slow adults, MSM devouring guppies, feminist lunatics, pro-abortion sickos, climate change dopes and wards of the state for her to build a winning coalition.

I hope I am wrong. 

Love your list. Which one am I? 

[jerryskids 6,564]

4 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Love your list. Which one am I? 

MSM devouring guppy, certainly.  Maybe others.   

[seafoam1 2,799]

5 hours ago, The Real timschochet said:

OK. I actually think the polls are overestimating Trump this time, and really underestimating Harris. But we will learn shortly who is right. 

You should bet on it. 

[Hardcore troubadour 14,932]

28 minutes ago, Tree of Knowledge said:

I can’t believe there are enough trannies, ghays, slow adults, MSM devouring guppies, feminist lunatics, pro-abortion sickos, climate change dopes and wards of the state for her to build a winning coalition.

You forgot effeminate beta cucks, welfare mommas and felons.  

[Hardcore troubadour 14,932]

29 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Love your list. Which one am I? 

You’re on my list. 

[seafoam1 2,799]

1 minute ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

You forgot effeminate beta cucks, welfare mommas and felons.  

He doesn't want his lifestyle known

 

[thegeneral 2,908]

538 has Kamala’s chances of winning the highest they have been in the race to date wining 61 times out of 100.

[Horseman 2,361]

9 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

538 has Kamala’s chances of winning the highest they have been in the race to date wining 61 times out of 100.

Oh no!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-forecast-analysis

[seafoam1 2,799]

1 minute ago, Horseman said:

Oh no!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-forecast-analysis

[Horseman 2,361]

Thread full of rejects in here playing Team Little Harris.

[thegeneral 2,908]

11 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Oh no!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-forecast-analysis

How’d they do in 2020?

[thegeneral 2,908]

Just now, Horseman said:

Thread full of rejects in here playing Team Little Harris.

At least you have Peefoam to spoon with. 

[Strike 5,186]

2 hours ago, The Real timschochet said:

I already have. In the last two days I linked to polls showing Harris ahead in North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Granted neither lead is comfortable but she IS ahead and if she wins either of those two states she pretty much wins the election. If you think she’s going to lose both of those it’s up to YOU to demonstrate why since the data is against you. 

Your problem is that you ONLY link to polls that support Kamalatoe.  It's like you're oblivious to the fact that there are other polls saying the exact opposite to the ones you cite.   Add on to that the FACT that the polls underestimated Trump in BOTH previous presidential elections he took part in.  Your position is weak given the minimal lead Kamalatoe has even in the polls you DO cite.  Someone using critical thinking skills, taking in to account all the data, wouldn't take the stance you're taking.  They'd be much more measured in their stance as I am in mine.  But hey, you've got that great women's intuition so you should go with that.

[TimHauck 2,615]

2 hours ago, jerryskids said:

Do you have a link to the polls which add in a "hidden Trump voter" factor?

I absolutely believe it is a factor, but I'd like to know how they add it to their polls.

Many social circles, and social media circles, would ostracize you if you openly supported Trump.  Young men in particular are not going to tell their GFs that they are voting for Trump.  This clearly impacts the polls, which while they claim to be anonymous, many people choose not to risk it.  Supporting Trump is like Fight Club.  Rule 1:  you don't talk about voting for Trump.

The amount of such hidden voters, well, that is the question.   

Does anyone under 70 actually participate in political polls?

[Horseman 2,361]

6 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

How’d they do in 2020?

538 predicted Hillary to win 70% of the time and she looses big time.

538 predicted Biden to win 90% of the time and the race was decided by 50,000 votes.

Hey guys 538 has Harris winning 60% of the time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

A self lobotomy wouldn't be a bad idea.

 

[lickin_starfish 1,893]

4 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Does anyone under 70 actually participate in political polls?

I do. I've been called twice this election season, and I pretend to be a Harris fan to throw off the results.

[thegeneral 2,908]

1 minute ago, Horseman said:

538 predicted Hillary to win 70% of the time and she looses big time.

538 predicted Biden to win 90% of the time and the race was decided by 50,000 votes.

Hey guys 538 has Harris winning 60% of the time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

A self lobotomy wouldn't be a bad idea.

 

Biden won 100% of the time it seems!

[Horseman 2,361]

1 minute ago, thegeneral said:

Biden won 100% of the time it seems!

Biden ran for president four times, in 1988, 2008, 2020 and 2024.

Quick find a long metal rod before it gets worse.

[thegeneral 2,908]

5 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Biden ran for president four times, in 1988, 2008, 2020 and 2024.

Quick find a long metal rod before it gets worse.

What did 538 have him predicted to do in those races?

Dom’t worry Assman, your orange hero will soon be put out of his misery for good. He will be able to focus fully on his grift and you will be able to whine full time about how the libs are ruining you life

[Fireballer 2,639]

1 hour ago, Tree of Knowledge said:

I can’t believe there are enough trannies, ghays, slow adults, MSM devouring guppies, feminist lunatics, pro-abortion sickos, climate change dopes and wards of the state for her to build a winning coalition.

Unfortunately, these types have been allowed to pollute academia.  A generation of malleable minds being fed garbage, produces garbage..  

[Fireballer 2,639]

Add it to the stack of lies…

 

[thegeneral 2,908]

Just now, Fireballer said:

Add it to the stack of lies…

 

He’ll keep the parts he likes!

[Rabbit Range 51]

4 hours ago, The Real timschochet said:

Call it the Taylor Swift effect. 

I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT!

[IGotWorms 4,057]

1 hour ago, Horseman said:

538 predicted Hillary to win 70% of the time and she looses big time.

538 predicted Biden to win 90% of the time and the race was decided by 50,000 votes.

Hey guys 538 has Harris winning 60% of the time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

A self lobotomy wouldn't be a bad idea.

 

You spelled 7,000,000 votes wrong 

[Fireballer 2,639]

Anyone want to fact check this utter bullshat?

 

[supermike80 1,803]

Right now if i had to guess id say Kamala wins.  The democrat machine ia humming pretty well and they have the media completely on their side.  Trump isnt helping himself either.