Jump to content
The Real timschochet

Trump talk only- no Eagles talk allowed (Steelers talk is OK though)

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Beaker15 said:

She isn't winning either NC or Penn

 

42 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Based on what? Your intuition? She’s ahead in both states. 

 

31 minutes ago, Beaker15 said:

No she isn't.   Polls underestimate Trump every election.  Trump will get over 300 electoral votes

27 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

OK. I actually think the polls are overestimating Trump this time, and really underestimating Harris. But we will learn shortly who is right. 

 

26 minutes ago, Strike said:

Based on what?  Your intuition?

Phenomenal sequence. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Strike said:

Based on what?  Your intuition?

Based on a couple of points: 

1. The pollsters were upset that they were so incorrect about 2016 and 2020. This time I believe they’re overcompensating which they did in 2022. They’re worried about the “hidden Trump voter” so they’re including that number but Kamala is still ahead. 

2. The pollsters are relying on what they call “likely voters” but this really discounts new voters particularly young ones. Call it the Taylor Swift effect. 
 

Thats my reasoning. I could be completely wrong; I certainly have been before. 

  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, The Real timschochet said:

Based on what? Your intuition? She’s ahead in both states. 

Ahead? How is anyone ahead

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, HellToupee said:

Ahead? How is anyone ahead

Technically, the Democrats have millions of ballots already collected and sitting in warehouses like 2020.  Yes, they are ahead.  

  • Like 1
  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Based on a couple of points: 

1. The pollsters were upset that they were so incorrect about 2016 and 2020. This time I believe they’re overcompensating which they did in 2022. They’re worried about the “hidden Trump voter” so they’re including that number but Kamala is still ahead. 

2. The pollsters are relying on what they call “likely voters” but this really discounts new voters particularly young ones. Call it the Taylor Swift effect. 
 

Thats my reasoning. I could be completely wrong; I certainly have been before. 

So...........your intuition.  Got it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Based on a couple of points: 

1. The pollsters were upset that they were so incorrect about 2016 and 2020. This time I believe they’re overcompensating which they did in 2022. They’re worried about the “hidden Trump voter” so they’re including that number but Kamala is still ahead. 

2. The pollsters are relying on what they call “likely voters” but this really discounts new voters particularly young ones. Call it the Taylor Swift effect. 
 

Thats my reasoning. I could be completely wrong; I certainly have been before. 

Do you have a link to the polls which add in a "hidden Trump voter" factor?

I absolutely believe it is a factor, but I'd like to know how they add it to their polls.

Many social circles, and social media circles, would ostracize you if you openly supported Trump.  Young men in particular are not going to tell their GFs that they are voting for Trump.  This clearly impacts the polls, which while they claim to be anonymous, many people choose not to risk it.  Supporting Trump is like Fight Club.  Rule 1:  you don't talk about voting for Trump.

The amount of such hidden voters, well, that is the question.  :cheers: 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, The Real timschochet said:

I’m not throwing blind darts here. I think my reasoning is sound. If you think I’m wrong tell me why. 

No.  Support your reasoning with data and links.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Real Tim Crochet. That is what he should be doing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, jerryskids said:

Do you have a link to the polls which add in a "hidden Trump voter" factor?

I absolutely believe it is a factor, but I'd like to know how they add it to their polls.

Many social circles, and social media circles, would ostracize you if you openly supported Trump.  Young men in particular are not going to tell their GFs that they are voting for Trump.  This clearly impacts the polls, which while they claim to be anonymous, many people choose not to risk it.  Supporting Trump is like Fight Club.  Rule 1:  you don't talk about voting for Trump.

The amount of such hidden voters, well, that is the question.  :cheers: 

I have no such links. I have heard polling experts and various pollsters talk about this and argue that they are taking into account this time around. It is my estimation (what @Strike calls my intuition) that they are taking it into account too much. 
I actually think that it is the reverse of your theory- that in some rural and red areas you may be ostracized if you choose Kamala Harris. I believe this will show up in places like Pennsylvania and Georgia, just enough in red areas to allow her to win the states. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, Strike said:

No.  Support your reasoning with data and links.

I already have. In the last two days I linked to polls showing Harris ahead in North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Granted neither lead is comfortable but she IS ahead and if she wins either of those two states she pretty much wins the election. If you think she’s going to lose both of those it’s up to YOU to demonstrate why since the data is against you. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can’t believe there are enough trannies, ghays, slow adults, MSM devouring guppies, feminist lunatics, pro-abortion sickos, climate change dopes and wards of the state for her to build a winning coalition.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Tree of Knowledge said:

I can’t believe there are enough trannies, ghays, slow adults, MSM devouring guppies, feminist lunatics, pro-abortion sickos, climate change dopes and wards of the state for her to build a winning coalition.

I hope I am wrong. 

Love your list. Which one am I? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Love your list. Which one am I? 

MSM devouring guppy, certainly.  Maybe others.  :cheers: 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, The Real timschochet said:

OK. I actually think the polls are overestimating Trump this time, and really underestimating Harris. But we will learn shortly who is right. 

You should bet on it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Tree of Knowledge said:

I can’t believe there are enough trannies, ghays, slow adults, MSM devouring guppies, feminist lunatics, pro-abortion sickos, climate change dopes and wards of the state for her to build a winning coalition.

You forgot effeminate beta cucks, welfare mommas and felons.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Love your list. Which one am I? 

You’re on my list. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

You forgot effeminate beta cucks, welfare mommas and felons.  

:nono: He doesn't want his lifestyle known

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Horseman said:

Thread full of rejects in here playing Team Little Harris.

At least you have Peefoam to spoon with. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, The Real timschochet said:

I already have. In the last two days I linked to polls showing Harris ahead in North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Granted neither lead is comfortable but she IS ahead and if she wins either of those two states she pretty much wins the election. If you think she’s going to lose both of those it’s up to YOU to demonstrate why since the data is against you. 

Your problem is that you ONLY link to polls that support Kamalatoe.  It's like you're oblivious to the fact that there are other polls saying the exact opposite to the ones you cite.   Add on to that the FACT that the polls underestimated Trump in BOTH previous presidential elections he took part in.  Your position is weak given the minimal lead Kamalatoe has even in the polls you DO cite.  Someone using critical thinking skills, taking in to account all the data, wouldn't take the stance you're taking.  They'd be much more measured in their stance as I am in mine.  But hey, you've got that great women's intuition so you should go with that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, jerryskids said:

Do you have a link to the polls which add in a "hidden Trump voter" factor?

I absolutely believe it is a factor, but I'd like to know how they add it to their polls.

Many social circles, and social media circles, would ostracize you if you openly supported Trump.  Young men in particular are not going to tell their GFs that they are voting for Trump.  This clearly impacts the polls, which while they claim to be anonymous, many people choose not to risk it.  Supporting Trump is like Fight Club.  Rule 1:  you don't talk about voting for Trump.

The amount of such hidden voters, well, that is the question.  :cheers: 

Does anyone under 70 actually participate in political polls?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

How’d they do in 2020?

538 predicted Hillary to win 70% of the time and she looses big time.

538 predicted Biden to win 90% of the time and the race was decided by 50,000 votes.

Hey guys 538 has Harris winning 60% of the time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:doh:

A self lobotomy wouldn't be a bad idea.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Does anyone under 70 actually participate in political polls?

I do. I've been called twice this election season, and I pretend to be a Harris fan to throw off the results.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Horseman said:

538 predicted Hillary to win 70% of the time and she looses big time.

538 predicted Biden to win 90% of the time and the race was decided by 50,000 votes.

Hey guys 538 has Harris winning 60% of the time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:doh:

A self lobotomy wouldn't be a bad idea.

 

Biden won 100% of the time it seems!

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, thegeneral said:

Biden won 100% of the time it seems!

Biden ran for president four times, in 1988, 2008, 2020 and 2024.

:doh:

Quick find a long metal rod before it gets worse.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Biden ran for president four times, in 1988, 2008, 2020 and 2024.

:doh:

Quick find a long metal rod before it gets worse.

What did 538 have him predicted to do in those races?

Dom’t worry Assman, your orange hero will soon be put out of his misery for good. He will be able to focus fully on his grift and you will be able to whine full time about how the libs are ruining you life 😂

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Tree of Knowledge said:

I can’t believe there are enough trannies, ghays, slow adults, MSM devouring guppies, feminist lunatics, pro-abortion sickos, climate change dopes and wards of the state for her to build a winning coalition.

Unfortunately, these types have been allowed to pollute academia.  A generation of malleable minds being fed garbage, produces garbage..  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Horseman said:

538 predicted Hillary to win 70% of the time and she looses big time.

538 predicted Biden to win 90% of the time and the race was decided by 50,000 votes.

Hey guys 538 has Harris winning 60% of the time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:doh:

A self lobotomy wouldn't be a bad idea.

 

You spelled 7,000,000 votes wrong 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Right now if i had to guess id say Kamala wins.  The democrat machine ia humming pretty well and they have the media completely on their side.  Trump isnt helping himself either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×