Mid to late rounders who will perform like upper tier guys

[Vikes_Fan 8]

It's been a while since I've done FF... so long that my account here got deleted. That said, I'm back in this for the first time in some years and looking for some last minute draft advice. Which mid to lower round guys are likely to far exceed the production of their draft round. I figure my best odds are to swing for the fences in the later rounds and wouldn't mind some good advice on who to grab.

[BigD13 6]

A couple of guys I'm looking at are Giovani Bernard and Kenbrell Thompkins. They'll be on the bench to start the season. I've been hearing good things about them.

[dj88 0]

I like Ahmad Bradshaw this year.

[Moemoney 8]

Alshon Jeffrey, even before the BMarsh news, but now he's a must have.

[Belushi 9]

I like Ahmad Bradshaw this year.

 

I agree on Bradshaw. I think people are sleeping on him. He's 100% healthy, he's been a very good RB and pass protector, and the Colts will be running more. His only competition is plodding Vick Ballard. I like him allot as a RB3 with upside.

[MDC 5,892]

My picks by position:

 

QB: Colin Kaepernick is the last upper tier QB on my board but I think he's going to outscore Luck, Eli, Romo and others in the 8-12 QB range by a wide margin and be a total bargain for where he gets picked. I also think Weedon is going to be a real surprise this year and a viable backup. Freeman is another guy who's barely getting drafted but could put up much better numbers than expected.

 

RB: I can't believe I'm saying this but Ryan Matthews may have finally wrecked his stock to the point where he's getting drafted as a flex or 3rd RB but could put up RB2 numbers. Ben Tate is on everyone's radar but he will be an utter beast if Foster misses any time. If you want a real late round guy I love Marcel Reece as a final round flyer - he ended last year on a tear and is sure to play when McFadden tears his vaj.

 

WR: In the 4-5 range of large (14-teamers) I'm still seeing Eric Decker, Jordy Nelson and James Jones floating around and any one of them can be a viable WR 2. Even a little later you're getting guys like Mike Williams and Miles Austin. In the 6 rounds or above of 14-team drafts I can't ask for much more than that. Late round flyer this year? How about Sidney Rice? Russell Wilson has to throw to someone and he's going undrafted.

 

TE: A few weeks ago I'd have said Jordan Cameron but he's so overhyped now. Digging slightly deeper after the top options are off the board I think Brandon Myers is more likely to put up something like 850 yards and 7-8 TDs than several TEs like Olsen and Cook who are getting drafted a round or two ahead of him. Digging very deep now, if you draft a low end starter and want to take a flyer on Zach Ertz.

 

K: How about Gostkowski? I got nothing here. I guess maybe David Akers, since even some Eagles fans I know aren't aware that he's on Detroit's roster.

 

D: The Bengals are consistently among the league leaders in sacks and they always go after teams (Bears) that are known for D but put up worse fantasy numbers. A real deep one for me is the Bucs, who drastically improved their secondary by adding Revis. Even deeper? Carolina Panthers young D led by Luke Kuechly at MLB with Ted Ginn returning kicks.

[Gepetto 988]

DeSean Jackson

Josh Gordon

Vincent Brown

Kenbrell Thompkins

Robert Griffin III

Andrew Luck

Michael Vick

Tony Romo

Jared Cook

Rashard Mendenhall

Knowshon Moreno

[PackYourNut 47]

Bradshaw, Gordon, Golden Tate... They can all be had mid to late rounds and should easily surpass their ADP if healthy.

[rallo 132]

some good info in here!

 

i know his ADP has risen and made him not as valueable as before, but i see cecil shorts III having a big year

 

in the 9 games that he started he amassed 55 rec 979yds and 7 TDs

 

if you averaged that out over an entire season that would be 90+ rec 1600+yds and 13TDs... obviously i'm not expecting those numbers, but i don't think that 70rec for 1200yds and 9-10TDs is out of line... and if the stats fall similar to last year, that puts him the top 10WR overall... wouldn't be bad for a late 6th early 7th round pick... no blackmon for the first 4 games should give him a healthy start on those numbers.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

 

I agree on Bradshaw. I think people are sleeping on him. He's 100% healthy, he's been a very good RB and pass protector, and the Colts will be running more. His only competition is plodding Vick Ballard. I like him allot as a RB3 with upside.

 

100% healthy?

The dude just started practicing...and he's been injuried the past 2 seasons.

[snatchit 108]

I think when Blackmon gets back he will or could be considered a high # 2 WR... dudes a beast

I got him in the 12 round

Also got Vick in the 11th round

[PackYourNut 47]

 

100% healthy?

The dude just started practicing...and he's been injuried the past 2 seasons.

 

Yes, he just started practicing now that he is 100% healthy... Could he get injured again, sure. But for now, he's healthy and practicing in full. If he stays healthy, he will be a steal!

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

 

Yes, he just started practicing now that he is 100% healthy... Could he get injured again, sure. But for now, he's healthy and practicing in full. If he stays healthy, he will be a steal!

 

Steal? I highly doubt it. He's not the type of back to get a season of full workload. Indy has RBBC written all over it. At best he'll avg 15 touches a game which would give him about 220-240 touches for the season. That'll be about 50-60 yards a game with an occasional TD (assuming he gets goalline carries).

[PackYourNut 47]

 

Steal? I highly doubt it. He's not the type of back to get a season of full workload. Indy has RBBC written all over it. At best he'll avg 15 touches a game which would give him about 220-240 touches for the season. That'll be about 50-60 yards a game with an occasional TD (assuming he gets goalline carries).

 

Well, I thought so at first too. However, now I think your wrong...

 

He had 1200 total yards and 6 TDs last year while sharing time with Wilson and Brown. Not to mention he missed a few games because of injury.

 

This year he has to share carries with who? Vick Ballard? The Colts should have a good offense and they want to run more... 1500 total yards and 8 TDs is easily attainable if healthy. And were talking about 5th or 6th round pick.

 

That's value...

[DankNuggs 305]

DJax at WR is a big one for me... That offense is going to get him the ball all over the place... He will be a percy harvin type this year. He will justify top 10 for next year, but with Maclin back people will prob discount again...

[Matt Mueller 146]

I think Floyd could be in a for a big year. Won't be shocked if he out tds Fitzgerald.

 

Agree on DJax. If he can stay healthy he will get touches and hit on some deep ones.

[TheFantasyFootballSow 5]

 

Well, I thought so at first too. However, now I think your wrong...

 

He had 1200 total yards and 6 TDs last year while sharing time with Wilson and Brown. Not to mention he missed a few games because of injury.

 

This year he has to share carries with who? Vick Ballard? The Colts should have a good offense and they want to run more... 1500 total yards and 8 TDs is easily attainable if healthy. And were talking about 5th or 6th round pick.

 

That's value...

 

I like the risk / reward here too. Just drafted him in the 6th as my rb4 in ppr, which means I invested a high pick in a bench player. Sitting out the whole preseason isn't a big deal for a vet with proven chops. I think an improvement on last year's numbers is possible even with rbbc, but I'm expecting the biggest jump in tds.

 

1300 yds, 25 recs, 10 tds, which would put him around Stevan Ridley's numbers last year at that RB1 / 2 line. That equates to a 2nd round pick, and includes a slight chance for a higher ceiling that would distinguish him from other RB2s but probably wouldn't push him into the RB1 tier.

 

I hope he goes off early so that I can work a trade with either him or another back for a better WR than what was available when I took him.

[Kent 228]

 

I agree on Bradshaw. I think people are sleeping on him. He's 100% healthy, he's been a very good RB and pass protector, and the Colts will be running more. His only competition is plodding Vick Ballard. I like him allot as a RB3 with upside.

DND.

 

His foot is injured every single year. It is structurally unsound at fundamental physiological level. Why take the risk when the work knows he's got a ba wheel that will not heal?

[browns16-0 30]

I like Shane Vereen in a ppr league, I concur with Justin Blackmon, and think Andrew Luck could be a straight steal at his adp.

[PackYourNut 47]

I hope he goes off early so that I can work a trade with either him or another back for a better WR than what was available when I took him.

 

Gonna be a mixed bagged early I would think... he gets the raider, jags and SD, but also gets SF, SEA and DEN...

 

Great flex play on the easy weeks!

[bigmark3333 11]

Agree with a lot that have been already posted, but one that I will add is Chris Givens. He's got the raw talent, as shown by his 5 straight games last year with a catch of 50+ yards. Everything that I've read about him becoming a more all around receiver this preseason has been positive and the past few days I've seen reports saying he's expected to lead the Rams in targets. An improved O-line will help Bradford get him the ball deep more as well. Everything is looking up for this guy and I'd definitely take him before Austin. I see him as a WR3 with high upside.

[Houston Texans 10]

 

Steal? I highly doubt it. He's not the type of back to get a season of full workload. Indy has RBBC written all over it. At best he'll avg 15 touches a game which would give him about 220-240 touches for the season. That'll be about 50-60 yards a game with an occasional TD (assuming he gets goalline carries).

Could Indy be a RBBC? Absolutely, and that's why Bradshw is being drafted where he is, because he isn't "the man," yet. IF (and I know it's a big if) he stays healthy, he is much more talented than Ballard.

 

He's averaged 18.4 touches/game over the last 3 years (as "main" back in NYG), for 89 total yards/game, with 25 TD. If you extrapolate those numbers over 16 games, you get:

 

294 touches, 1424 total yards, 10 TDs.

 

For where he is being drafted, that is most definitely a steal. Now that is based on him staying healthy, but that provisio was already noted in the previous posts.

[WR Guru 31]

some good info in here!

 

i know his ADP has risen and made him not as valueable as before, but i see cecil shorts III having a big year

 

in the 9 games that he started he amassed 55 rec 979yds and 7 TDs

 

if you averaged that out over an entire season that would be 90+ rec 1600+yds and 13TDs... obviously i'm not expecting those numbers, but i don't think that 70rec for 1200yds and 9-10TDs is out of line... and if the stats fall similar to last year, that puts him the top 10WR overall... wouldn't be bad for a late 6th early 7th round pick... no blackmon for the first 4 games should give him a healthy start on those numbers.

My only problem with Shorts is that i just hate Gabbert so much. I think he is a truly poor quarterback and is only getting continual chances because he was a 1st round pick.

 

With just a mediocre QB (Henne), I think your numbers for Shorts are right on. If Gabbert somehow holds onto the job, I think that suppresses the value of all Jax receivers.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

He's averaged 18.4 touches/game over the last 3 years (as "main" back in NYG), for 89 total yards/game, with 25 TD. If you extrapolate those numbers over 16 games, you get:

 

And that's where the issue is. The giants offensive line is one of the best in the league. Be it Tiki, Bradshaw, Jacobs, Wilson, A. Brown it doesn't matter.... Indy is a completely different situation. I live in NY and watched every giants game over the past 20 years and Bradshaw doesn't have elusive quickness or breakaway speed. He's a tough runner and a tough runner with 2 bad wheels are a big no no.

[Super Cubs 132]

Michael Floyd Wr Ari - mid to late rounds

Stefan Taylor Rb Ari - late round

[mdm_1971 0]

i am liking sudfeld more and more and saturday if the news comes down that gronk goes on pup list then he will be in line to get 6 games starting in a TE friendly offense and of course when gronk gets back sudfeld will be still be used in the 2 te sets that the pats run A LOT.... that to me is a late round guy that could perform like a #1 if only for half the season i'll take it

[WR Guru 31]

 

Michael Floyd Wr Ari - mid to late rounds

Stefan Taylor Rb Ari - late round

 

I've kept a close eye on the Arizona RB situation. It's something that's flown almost totally under the radar. As a Steelers homer, I have almost zero faith in Mendenhall to stay healthy for very long. and Ryan Williams, the backup, is even more injury-prone than Menedenhall and hasn't looked good even on the rare occasions he's played.

 

That leaves Taylor.

 

I don't know that I'd identify him as a guy to potentially produce top-tier numbers, but he could be a serviceable RB3 when the inevitable Mendenhall injuries occur.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

My only problem with Shorts is that i just hate Gabbert so much. I think he is a truly poor quarterback and is only getting continual chances because he was a 1st round pick.

 

With just a mediocre QB (Henne), I think your numbers for Shorts are right on. If Gabbert somehow holds onto the job, I think that suppresses the value of all Jax receivers.

The jags did just pick up ricky stanzi.

[Joey Gladstone 33]

Just something else to consider with Bradshaw (I skimmed through all the posts not sure it's been mentioned). He's basically a 1 year rental. Indy doesn't give a fock about his long-term health so they will be running him into the ground, as much as his feet allow. Everything I've seen and heard has Ballard being a clear-cut backup while Bradshaw is healthy. If you can stomach the injury risk he could be a huge steal.

 

I also have to throw out the homer pick, Christine Michael. Lots of hype circulating him now, but if Lynch misses any time he'll be a monster. They are already thinking of ways to get him on the field.

[Belushi 9]

Just something else to consider with Bradshaw (I skimmed through all the posts not sure it's been mentioned). He's basically a 1 year rental. Indy doesn't give a fock about his long-term health so they will be running him into the ground, as much as his feet allow. Everything I've seen and heard has Ballard being a clear-cut backup while Bradshaw is healthy. If you can stomach the injury risk he could be a huge steal.

 

I also have to throw out the homer pick, Christine Michael. Lots of hype circulating him now, but if Lynch misses any time he'll be a monster. They are already thinking of ways to get him on the field.

 

If Indy liked Ballard, they wouldn't have brought in Bradshaw. Ballard showed last year that he should not be a starter in this league. Bradshaw is an injury risk, but when healthy he produces. For where he is going, he's a steal.

[Maroon Bells 18]

Agree on Bradshaw. He's my RB3 and I love him there. But I think the two biggest values at their ADPs right now are Chris Givens (#1 target on a team who should move the ball pretty well this year) and Justin Blackmon. He's going in WR5 territory. I got him for $1 in an auction draft on Sunday. At that value his suspension is irrelevant. This is a major talent, folks. A former top 5 NFL draft pick. Put up 236 yards in a game last season, 11 for 141 and 2 TDs in another. He's a Dez Bryant/AJ Green type talent with a bad attitude and a bad QB.

 

But you mean to tell me that kind of talent isn't even worth a flyer? It's like I'm in bizarroland or something.

[kilroy69 994]

antonio brown is moving into mike walleces vacated X spot that produced 800 yards and 8 tds. should be a steal at his adp

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I think Floyd could be in a for a big year. Won't be shocked if he out tds Fitzgerald.

 

Agree on DJax. If he can stay healthy he will get touches and hit on some deep ones.

The biggest "sleeper" that I think will fail is probably Floyd. I like Roberts better than Floyd.

[Super Cubs 132]

I've kept a close eye on the Arizona RB situation. It's something that's flown almost totally under the radar. As a Steelers homer, I have almost zero faith in Mendenhall to stay healthy for very long. and Ryan Williams, the backup, is even more injury-prone than Menedenhall and hasn't looked good even on the rare occasions he's played.

 

That leaves Taylor.

 

I don't know that I'd identify him as a guy to potentially produce top-tier numbers, but he could be a serviceable RB3 when the inevitable Mendenhall injuries occur.

roto has Williams on the trade or release block

[IGotWorms 3,315]

Bradshaw has a wide open opportunity in Indy. Yes there is certainly a lot of risk there, but you really can't ask for a much better situation. Especially considering that he's a good receiving back, so even if the Indy o-line keeps him from doing well on the ground he'll still get his through the air. A nice bargain at his current ADP.

 

Blackmon and Givens are good candidates as well. Michael Floyd finished last year very strong and got a QB upgrade so he's certainly a possibility as well.

[TheFantasyFootballSow 5]

One more reflection on Bradshaw:

 

He had foot surgery, which should help. Regardless, he plays through injuries when feasible.

 

In terms of situation, this Offense should be as friendly to medium rb play as Denver. Bradshaw isn't being asked to carry a team's offense, but will rather benefit from strong qb play and above-average scoring. Their top two wrs aren't RZ target type bodies, leaving a lot of work for a good short yardage back + TEs.

 

I'm sure they also want a running game to drain the clock if they're holding on to a 2 score lead in the 4th. Combined with Bradshaw's blocking + passing, and it's a good fit.

[Voltaire 4,562]

I just posted in the TY/DHB thread so it's on my mind.

 

DHB's ADP is late because everybody assumed TY would win the starting job. He hasn't DHB has held him off all camp. You can get DHB for cheap and he should put up boom-or-bust but overall WR3 numbers so long as he continues to hold off TY.

 

I just did that yesterday in 12 Geeks, took DHB in the 11th round. TY had went 6.1 I think his owner is in for a rude awakening.

[rallo 132]

I just posted in the TY/DHB thread so it's on my mind.

 

DHB's ADP is late because everybody assumed TY would win the starting job. He hasn't DHB has held him off all camp. You can get DHB for cheap and he should put up boom-or-bust but overall WR3 numbers so long as he continues to hold off TY.

 

I just did that yesterday in 12 Geeks, took DHB in the 11th round. TY had went 6.1 I think his owner is in for a rude awakening.

 

I agree, why do people think that it will be any different than last year? As posted in the other thread, i think they will take turns going off... why whould you want to spend a 6th rounder on a streaky player like that when you can get DHB 5 rounds later and get the same production (or better)

[jgcrawfish 232]

roto has Williams on the trade or release block

I took a flyer on Stepfan Logan in a deep league because Williams probably won't stick and Mendenhall won't stay healthy. I think Logan sees some time there.

[Perennial Contender 18]

I've had 3 drafts and ended up with Bowe on all 3 so far. I am either missing something or everyone else is. I like him as a clear cut WR 2 this year. WR 1 upside.