Why Trump will win - By Michael Moore

[Cruzer 1,992]

That's my feelings on it. To each his own

What's the difference between FB and camping out on a message board all day? The later is dignified?

[rholio 339]

I use Facebook to post stuff about my kids so that my family and friends know that my kids >>>>>> their kids. I thought that's what Facebook is for.

It's what my wife uses it for.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,659]

What's the difference between FB and camping out on a message board all day? The later is dignified?

FB has a sanitized, look at me thing going on. This place is dirty.

[Cruzer 1,992]

FB has a sanitized, look at me thing going on. This place is dirty.

True - this place is dirty.

[rholio 339]

What's the difference between FB and camping out on a message board all day? The later is dignified?

Facebook is the online equivalent of scrapbooking. This is my page, I made it. Isn't it pretty?

 

This place is a nice little tavern where people argue for the sake of arguing. There's a few posters here I don't like online, and would be happy to have a beer with. There's also the one or two you don't want knowing what neighborhood you live in, but you get those at a tavern too.

[Voltaire 4,564]

I don't use facebook. My excuse for a long time is that it was blocked. Now that I have a VPN, I do have access to it so my new excuse is that I'm a dinosaur too intimidated by and too use to failing on anything tech/computer related to bother with it.

 

I'll give things a shot but then when I fail, I figure that if I got this far in life without this new prize bauble everybody likes, I figure I don't need it. Not for me. Too stoopid.

[KSB2424 3,083]

It's what my wife uses it for.

[SUXBNME 1,340]

Here's one thing that the fatty is 100% correct about -

. And there is no doubt in my mind that if people could vote from their couch at home on their X-box or PlayStation, Hillary would win in a landslide.

[edjr 5,567]

Trump in 2008.

 

 

 

[kutulu 1,551]

Bump

[Cruzer 1,992]

Bump

What if MM was actually right about all his other theories now?

[Hardcore troubadour 12,659]

I told a few people on here to read a book called "listen up liberal"'by Tom Franks, a darling of the left, months ago. He spelled out then why the democrats were going down. Bill Maher had him on and brushed off what he was saying, decided to goof around with Meathead himself, Rob Reiner, instead. The guy was 5 feet away from him trying to explain it to him, but he ignored it and decided to just call everyone racist and stupid. Oh well, you lose.

[5-Points 2,733]

Moore has never been right about anything. That streak will continue.

I gladly stand corrected.

[IGotWorms 3,315]

Well you gotta hand it to the guy, he was right. I thought he was just trying to drum up publicity with a contrarian viewpoint ... still a possibility, but I suspect he simply saw coming what so many could not.

[RLLD 3,455]

I think tossing racism at the election in the hopes that it will stick is too easy, lazy and plainly ignorant.

 

I can come up with a number of spurious premises as well. I would much rather have a deep dig completed to find out the reality than simply pretend its a white/male conspiracy....

[TimmySmith 2,782]

MM could have screamed it from the rooftops. Wouldn't have mattered. The left's entire political system, driven by the DNC and powered by the MSM only listens to insiders. It's a club, and MM is only allowed in as an occasional guest when he has something useful.

[listen2me 23 1,544]

He was spot on like him or hate him.

 

I'd of voted for Jesse the Body.

[ROCKFORD 134]

What if MM was actually right about all his other theories now?

 

yea, that inconvient truth thing may pan out.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

That's a lot of werds. Cliff's Notes version?

It was a very good read. Don't be lazy

[Hardcore troubadour 12,659]

Well you gotta hand it to the guy, he was right. I thought he was just trying to drum up publicity with a contrarian viewpoint ... still a possibility, but I suspect he simply saw coming what so many could not.

I saw it coming. As a matter of fact, I was in the vanguard. You lot that were worried about bathrooms and BLM were out of the loop. Told you so.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,659]

So let me get this straight in my head:

 

1-Trump will win because of Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Except all of those states now lean democrat except for Ohio, which is a tossup.

 

2-Angry White Man will put him over the top. Even though they're outnumbered by college educated men who aren't angry, women, blacks, Latinos, and gays, all of which are voting Hillary in greater numbers than Trump.

 

3-The Hillary problem, I guess meaning people don't like her so they will vote for Trump instead. Even though her unfavorability ratings have been way better than Trumps since the beginning., and she dominated him during the debates, reassuring folks that she will make a vastly superior President.

 

4-The Depressed Sanders vote will keep the youth out of the voting booth, except for the fact that Sanders voters pretty much fell in line quickly behind Clinton.

 

5-The Jesse Ventura effect? To stupid to comment on. Sure, there are plenty of folks who want to upset the apple cart, but that's like saying the size of Trump's rallies means he'll win. Where is he in the polls?

 

6-Repubs hate Michael Moore, now all of a sudden he knows what he's talking about?

 

And I'll add a few ridiculous ones of my own:

 

1-Trump will win because there's a vast pool of people who will vote for him who are too embarrassed to say it. So, the logic is that Trump supporters are embarrassed to support him, but supporters of Hillary Clinton, herself very unpopular, are not? Not buying it.

 

2-Sanders supporters want change, they'll vote Trump. Only, none of what he wants is what they want. Plus, they've already fallen in line behind Clinton.

 

3-Polls are rigged. Only, they're not. Most polling is done by reputable polling companies, and only a couple have the race in a statistical dead heat, and those are tracking polls, not opinion polls.

 

4-Clinton supporters think the race is over, so they won't vote. This ignores the fact that only 50% of the electorate votes, anyways. Was there a huge enthusiasm burst for Clinton that would have pushed it to 52% or 55% of the electorate voting, now those people are staying home? Trump keeps telling people to vote, now his people are hoping for a smaller turnout because that favors him? Face it, people know who Trump is. Clinton supporters know that he is singularly dangerous to all of the things they want accomplished, they won't just say "We got him beat, I think I'll stay home and clean my navel instead of voting." They'll be out voting.

 

The fact is, there are not enough of the type of people who want Trump for him to win.

Holy wrong on all counts!! And there were enough. Funny, the guy who actually lives in Ohio had no clue. Good job!

[TD Ryan2 314]

He was spot on like him or hate him.

 

 

M Moore fockin' NAILED IT!!!

 

the middle class is so angry at the establishment - Political, Corporate, etc... they are SO FOCKIN' TIRED of them that they'd vote for anyone who they perceived was anti-establishment.... the Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend.

 

Sexism. Racism. Ignorance. Unqualified... all may or may not be true... but the middle class didn't care... because the MOST IMPORTANT thing was to say "F-U" to the establishment that's been focking everyone for 30 years.

 

Solve the bigger problems brought on by the establishment first... then we'll deal with anything inconveniently ugly that our battering ram has brought to the table.

[RLLD 3,455]

So let me get this straight in my head:

 

1-Trump will win because of Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Except all of those states now lean democrat except for Ohio, which is a tossup.

 

2-Angry White Man will put him over the top. Even though they're outnumbered by college educated men who aren't angry, women, blacks, Latinos, and gays, all of which are voting Hillary in greater numbers than Trump.

 

3-The Hillary problem, I guess meaning people don't like her so they will vote for Trump instead. Even though her unfavorability ratings have been way better than Trumps since the beginning., and she dominated him during the debates, reassuring folks that she will make a vastly superior President.

 

4-The Depressed Sanders vote will keep the youth out of the voting booth, except for the fact that Sanders voters pretty much fell in line quickly behind Clinton.

 

5-The Jesse Ventura effect? To stupid to comment on. Sure, there are plenty of folks who want to upset the apple cart, but that's like saying the size of Trump's rallies means he'll win. Where is he in the polls?

 

6-Repubs hate Michael Moore, now all of a sudden he knows what he's talking about?

 

And I'll add a few ridiculous ones of my own:

 

1-Trump will win because there's a vast pool of people who will vote for him who are too embarrassed to say it. So, the logic is that Trump supporters are embarrassed to support him, but supporters of Hillary Clinton, herself very unpopular, are not? Not buying it.

 

2-Sanders supporters want change, they'll vote Trump. Only, none of what he wants is what they want. Plus, they've already fallen in line behind Clinton.

 

3-Polls are rigged. Only, they're not. Most polling is done by reputable polling companies, and only a couple have the race in a statistical dead heat, and those are tracking polls, not opinion polls.

 

4-Clinton supporters think the race is over, so they won't vote. This ignores the fact that only 50% of the electorate votes, anyways. Was there a huge enthusiasm burst for Clinton that would have pushed it to 52% or 55% of the electorate voting, now those people are staying home? Trump keeps telling people to vote, now his people are hoping for a smaller turnout because that favors him? Face it, people know who Trump is. Clinton supporters know that he is singularly dangerous to all of the things they want accomplished, they won't just say "We got him beat, I think I'll stay home and clean my navel instead of voting." They'll be out voting.

 

The fact is, there are not enough of the type of people who want Trump for him to win.

 

 

 

1-Trump will win because there's a vast pool of people who will vote for him who are too embarrassed to say it. So, the logic is that Trump supporters are embarrassed to support him, but supporters of Hillary Clinton, herself very unpopular, are not? Not buying it.

Not exactly, but post-election surveys have illuminated that they did in fact not truthfully admit that they were voting for Trump, but because they feared violence and social ostracization as a result of saying it. The media and leftist attacks on people had effectively altered polling.

 

2-Sanders supporters want change, they'll vote Trump. Only, none of what he wants is what they want. Plus, they've already fallen in line behind Clinton.

Remains to be seen, but not entirely crazy. I think the real question would be in what amounts did they cross over.

 

3-Polls are rigged. Only, they're not. Most polling is done by reputable polling companies, and only a couple have the race in a statistical dead heat, and those are tracking polls, not opinion polls.

Polling was not rigged, but it was inaccurate. And we now know that this a a factor of the fear people had, and they wanted to avoid being vilified. The left is very good at this, its their main tactic when they disagree.

 

4-Clinton supporters think the race is over, so they won't vote. This ignores the fact that only 50% of the electorate votes, anyways. Was there a huge enthusiasm burst for Clinton that would have pushed it to 52% or 55% of the electorate voting, now those people are staying home? Trump keeps telling people to vote, now his people are hoping for a smaller turnout because that favors him? Face it, people know who Trump is. Clinton supporters know that he is singularly dangerous to all of the things they want accomplished, they won't just say "We got him beat, I think I'll stay home and clean my navel instead of voting." They'll be out voting.

I was wondering about this myself. Did Clinton supporters not come out in force because the polling made it seem foregone? How absolutely hilarious would it be if the inclination of the left to vilify opposition to their ideas resulted in false poll results, that then resulted in lower voter turnout because they simply thought it was in the bag....

[IGotWorms 3,315]

It was lack of turnout for Clinton. You can come up with millions of other reasons and they'll have some validity too, but ultimately Trump performed as well as McCain and Romney whereas Clinton fell far behind Obama.

 

Minority voters and the young just didn't turn out for her like they did Obama. That's the main reason right there.

 

There are some other interesting parts like apparently the Hispanic vote was not quite as strong for her as expected, and she lost some white union voters in the rust belt. Trump didn't lose nearly as many independent voters as he could (and I would argue SHOULD have) given all the highly inflammatory things he said. All interesting factors as well but if the aforementioned voters had turned out for her those would've been simple footnotes.

 

Lack of enthusiasm because she was a poor candidate and few people REALLY wanted her. That's what it comes down to.

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,592]

It was lack of turnout for Clinton. You can come up with millions of other reasons and they'll have some validity too, but ultimately Trump performed as well as McCain and Romney whereas Clinton fell far behind Obama.

 

Minority voters and the young just didn't turn out for her like they did Obama. That's the main reason right there.

 

There are some other interesting parts like apparently the Hispanic vote was not quite as strong for her as expected, and she lost some white union voters in the rust belt. Trump didn't lose nearly as many independent voters as he could (and I would argue SHOULD have) given all the highly inflammatory things he said. All interesting factors as well but if the aforementioned voters had turned out for her those would've been simple footnotes.

 

Lack of enthusiasm because she was a poor candidate and few people REALLY wanted her. That's what it comes down to.

 

lack of turnout for Clinton might be a common excuse, but her %'s in extremely blue areas vs Obama really tanked, its wasn't a matter of voters, but %

 

see Wayne and Milwaukee counties for examples, look at Joe Biden's home county in Penn

 

Trump targeted working class blue areas well, those are facts

 

tons of Republicans still didn't vote for Trump, so its not like Trump just got all the same voters as Mccain and Romney, he built his base by the millions, and think how many R voted for Hillary because of Trump, what he overcame was historic. Sometimes you have to look logically inside the numbers

[RLLD 3,455]

It was lack of turnout for Clinton. You can come up with millions of other reasons and they'll have some validity too, but ultimately Trump performed as well as McCain and Romney whereas Clinton fell far behind Obama.

 

Minority voters and the young just didn't turn out for her like they did Obama. That's the main reason right there.

 

There are some other interesting parts like apparently the Hispanic vote was not quite as strong for her as expected, and she lost some white union voters in the rust belt. Trump didn't lose nearly as many independent voters as he could (and I would argue SHOULD have) given all the highly inflammatory things he said. All interesting factors as well but if the aforementioned voters had turned out for her those would've been simple footnotes.

 

Lack of enthusiasm because she was a poor candidate and few people REALLY wanted her. That's what it comes down to.

 

Agree.

 

There was clearly an issue with turnout. The WHY is the important thing to understand now. There are perhaps a dozen or more prospective causes, and perhaps its not one thing but several. Still, I would very much like to understand why....

[IGotWorms 3,315]

 

lack of turnout for Clinton might be a common excuse, but her %'s in extremely blue areas vs Obama really tanked, its wasn't a matter of voters, but %

 

see Wayne and Milwaukee counties for examples, look at Joe Biden's home county in Penn

 

Trump targeted working class blue areas well, those are facts

 

tons of Republicans still didn't vote for Trump, so its not like Trump just got all the same voters as Mccain and Romney, he built his base by the millions

We're essentially agreeing but you can't recognize that.

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,592]

We're essentially agreeing but you can't recognize that.

 

I recognize it, but you start out by saying less people voting, and I expanded on it. The numbers of voters were irrelevant % in districts are what matter

[IGotWorms 3,315]

 

Agree.

 

There was clearly an issue with turnout. The WHY is the important thing to understand now. There are perhaps a dozen or more prospective causes, and perhaps its not one thing but several. Still, I would very much like to understand why....

Pretty sure it was simple lack of enthusiasm.

 

In '08 and 2012 Obama was *their guy* to a lot of people. Blacks, liberals, younger voters.

 

In 2016 Trump was *their guy* to the disaffected working class and many other folks I won't explicitly list.

 

Hillary wasn't really anyone's "guy." Liberals don't trust her. Young people don't trust her. It should've been women that carried her but those issues with trustworthiness and likability bled over to that group as well.

 

She was a crappy candidate. VERY crappy. Only reason she was even there was the DNC and party establishment was determined to ram her down America's threat. And America resisted

[RLLD 3,455]

Pretty sure it was simple lack of enthusiasm.

 

In '08 and 2012 Obama was *their guy* to a lot of people. Blacks, liberals, younger voters.

 

In 2016 Trump was *their guy* to the disaffected working class and many other folks I won't explicitly list.

 

Hillary wasn't really anyone's "guy." Liberals don't trust her. Young people don't trust her. It should've been women that carried her but those issues with trustworthiness and likability bled over to that group as well.

 

She was a crappy candidate. VERY crappy. Only reason she was even there was the DNC and party establishment was determined to ram her down America's threat. And America resisted

 

Biden has to be kicking himself right now.....

[Hardcore troubadour 12,659]

I said numerous times black voters are unreliable. If they had showed up, she wins. But you won't hear them catching any blame, (protected class) but they have not shown up the last 3x the democrats lost. In 2000 Ralph Nader got all the blame, but if the black vote had turned out in Tennesse, Gores home state, he would have won. But you won't hear anyone calling them out, much easier to call the Trump voter a racist. The democrats are a mess. Their coalition of freaks has a lot of cracks in it.

[Cruzer 1,992]

I said numerous times black voters are unreliable. If they had showed up, she wins. But you won't hear them catching any blame, protected class, but they have not shown up the last 3x the democrats lost. In 2000 Ralph Nader got all the blame, but if the black vote had turned out in Tennesse, Gores home state, he would have won. But you won't hear anyone calling them out, much easier to call the Trump voter a racist. The democrats are a mess. Their coalition of freaks has a lot of cracks in it.

I made a half-hearted, tippy toe joke Election night here. I said in the end, it looks like Hill just wasn't black enuff.

 

But I wasn't entirely joking.. I guess you can call it racist if you want, it certainly isn't my intention - but it's a cold hard fact. Many of the African American voters came out to vote for Obama bcoz - well, he was black. Didn't matter what his platform was, didn't matter what he was promising - they came out to vote bcoz of him... Not to get off track - but I saw it first hand in the golfing world. Before Tiger Woods, you NEVER saw black women, and few black men - at golf tournaments or on the golf course. During Tigermania you'd see African American women by the hundreds walking up and down the fairways following Tiger. Now that Tiger has vanished from the scene, so have they.

[IGotWorms 3,315]

 

Biden has to be kicking himself right now.....

Definitely.

 

Probably Bernie as well for letting her off the hook on the email thing and other strategic errors here and there. Although he ran a very good campaign, just had a bit too much ground to make up especially with the DNC's fat sausage fingers on the scale

[RLLD 3,455]

I made a half-hearted, tippy toe joke Election night here. I said in the end, it looks like Hill just wasn't black enuff.

 

But I wasn't entirely joking.. I guess you can call it racist if you want, it certainly isn't my intention - but it's a cold hard fact. Many of the African American voters came out to vote for Obama bcoz - well, he was black. Didn't matter what his platform was, didn't matter what he was promising - they came out to vote bcoz of him... Not to get off track - but I saw it first hand in the golfing world. Before Tiger Woods, you NEVER saw black women, and few black men - at golf tournaments or on the golf course. During Tigermania you'd see African American women by the hundreds walking up and down the fairways following Tiger. Now that Tiger has vanished from the scene, so have they.

 

1) There is nothing wrong with joking, no matter how much the media or special interests try to sell it.

2) Agree on the AA vote, but would counter and note that this is not unique, and I am sure it happens in reverse. But typically we vote for people we like more than their policies anyway

3) Those wimmen could easily have been following Tiger for a hooooolleeee.... host of reasons

[edjr 5,567]

gave me goosebumps.