Can the economy be too strong?

[supermike80 2,082]

Please spare me the Trump MAGA Bullsh!t.

 

It seems like things are getting way too tight in the labor market and I can't see this ending well. Just this week the local car wash bumped its hourly rate from $10/hr to $15. I'm sure BLM will take credit for the $15/hr wage but realistically the market is pushing wages up higher and faster than I have ever seen.

 

Local shops that used to operate 24/7 (like coffee shops) are now closed overnight because they cannot find workers. I work in logistics and the driver wages are going up so far, so fast, it is absurd.

It's all going to hit us..and hit us really really hard..and fast. Or am I missing something. Come on you arm chair economists, what say you?

[cyclone24 1,935]

Recent research has shown the empirical evidence for globalization of corporate innovation is very limited. And as a corollary, the market for technologies is shrinking.

 

As a world leader, it is important for America to provide systematic research grants for our scientists. I believe there will always be a need for us to have a well-articulated innovation policy with emphasis on human resource development. Thank you.

[Cdub100 3,995]

Sounds like you read garbage

[supermike80 2,082]

Recent research has shown the empirical evidence for globalization of corporate innovation is very limited. And as a corollary, the market for technologies is shrinking.

 

As a world leader, it is important for America to provide systematic research grants for our scientists. I believe there will always be a need for us to have a well-articulated innovation policy with emphasis on human resource development. Thank you.

[supermike80 2,082]

Sounds like you read garbage

Non value added response. I was asking the question. Since you read such great stuff, enlighten me mr smart guy

[drobeski 3,061]

Congrats on the raise

[wiffleball 4,797]

Things don't usually go well when gas goes up and crude oil goes down concurrently.

 

Add in a trade war and...

[LOD01 199]

Please spare me the Trump MAGA Bullsh!t.

 

It seems like things are getting way too tight in the labor market and I can't see this ending well. Just this week the local car wash bumped its hourly rate from $10/hr to $15. I'm sure BLM will take credit for the $15/hr wage but realistically the market is pushing wages up higher and faster than I have ever seen.

 

Local shops that used to operate 24/7 (like coffee shops) are now closed overnight because they cannot find workers. I work in logistics and the driver wages are going up so far, so fast, it is absurd.

It's all going to hit us..and hit us really really hard..and fast. Or am I missing something. Come on you arm chair economists, what say you?

The issue is not a shortage of workers capable of doing the job. The issue is shortage of humans who have an IQ above retard. You can't fix that by raising wages.

 

See my thread where I question if a recession is possible with full employment.

[NorthernVike 2,095]

Hyperinflation is coming!

[bandrus1 413]

Things don't usually go well when gas goes up and crude oil goes down concurrently.

 

Add in a trade war and...

There was no trade war.. trump just wanted his daughter to get trademarks in china

[supermike80 2,082]

The issue is not a shortage of workers capable of doing the job. The issue is shortage of humans who have an IQ above retard. You can't fix that by raising wages.

 

See my thread where I question if a recession is possible with full employment.

Boy I couldn't disagree more. Yeah, there is a shortage of humans who aren't on opioids or who aren't completely retarded. So what do you do to attract those that actually can contribute to your company. you raise wages-- To entice those to come to work for you. Yeah you can blow smoke about how money isn't everything, but that only gets you so far. It doesn't pay the rent.

 

So your reply really doesn't make any sense to me

[drobeski 3,061]

fixed

[LOD01 199]

Boy I couldn't disagree more. Yeah, there is a shortage of humans who aren't on opioids or who aren't completely retarded. So what do you do to attract those that actually can contribute to your company. you raise wages-- To entice those to come to work for you. Yeah you can blow smoke about how money isn't everything, but that only gets you so far. It doesn't pay the rent.

 

So your reply really doesn't make any sense to me

Are companies at the point where they raise the wages so much they get people to jump ship? Eventually someone is left without a seat at the table because those coming out of HS and college are mostly lazy and/or retarded.

[supermike80 2,082]

Are companies at the point where they raise the wages so much they get people to jump ship? Eventually someone is left without a seat at the table because those coming out of HS and college are mostly lazy and/or retarded.

I'm sorry. I don't understand your reply. Can you explain a little more?

[iam90sbaby 2,727]

This is what winning to much looks like.

[nobody 2,882]

Yes, it's possible for the economy to be too strong. That's why the Federal reserve manipulates the prime rate to throttle inflation.

[LOD01 199]

I'm sorry. I don't understand your reply. Can you explain a little more?

Let's say Google needs an engineer. The candidate leaves Microsoft to go to Google to make more. The guy from IBM moves to Microsoft to take that gig and so on. We already have a shortage of smart humanoids, so smaller or weaker companies are left with job openings they can't fill.

 

Or is it that you just wait your turn to get your order filled. I need a custom bar made for my downstairs. Can't get anyone to do it. Either too busy or just quote a stupidly high price. I'm waiting about 3 months now to get a whole house generator installed. Why? Because he doesn't have qualified people to help him install them.....and none (qualified people) coming down the pipe either.

 

That gets back to my thread where I ask, if we cannot produce enough quickly enough, can we fall into recession. We are in uncharted territory in this country as far as the economy goes....due to the vast amount of stupid & lazy people breeding while smart people don't.

[Cdub100 3,995]

Non value added response. I was asking the question. Since you read such great stuff, enlighten me mr smart guy

 

Because it's a stupid question... Who the fock wants to do worse because they are doing well? You know what that sounds like? Liberal garbage articles. So yeah, stop reading that garbage.,

[DonS 3,319]

Recent research has shown the empirical evidence for globalization of corporate innovation is very limited. And as a corollary, the market for technologies is shrinking.

 

As a world leader, it is important for America to provide systematic research grants for our scientists. I believe there will always be a need for us to have a well-articulated innovation policy with emphasis on human resource development. Thank you.

You just made my day. Thank you, good sir.

[nobody 2,882]

 

Because it's a stupid question... Who the fock wants to do worse because they are doing well? You know what that sounds like? Liberal garbage articles. So yeah, stop reading that garbage.,

If you wanted to optimize and stabilize growth over the long term, you absolutely wouldn't want to grow too fast in the short term.

[supermike80 2,082]

 

Because it's a stupid question... Who the fock wants to do worse because they are doing well? You know what that sounds like? Liberal garbage articles. So yeah, stop reading that garbage.,

Woah big fella. Who said anyone wants this to do worse? I don't. I'm just wondering if this is sustainable. And this isn't from any article. I'm asking my own questions. I see cracks in the system. Big ones. And I'm unsure of these are minor or an indication of s omethong worse.

 

No politics here or hinted at. If I gave that impression, it wasn't my intention

[supermike80 2,082]

Let's say Google needs an engineer. The candidate leaves Microsoft to go to Google to make more. The guy from IBM moves to Microsoft to take that gig and so on. We already have a shortage of smart humanoids, so smaller or weaker companies are left with job openings they can't fill.

 

Or is it that you just wait your turn to get your order filled. I need a custom bar made for my downstairs. Can't get anyone to do it. Either too busy or just quote a stupidly high price. I'm waiting about 3 months now to get a whole house generator installed. Why? Because he doesn't have qualified people to help him install them.....and none (qualified people) coming down the pipe either.

 

That gets back to my thread where I ask, if we cannot produce enough quickly enough, can we fall into recession. We are in uncharted territory in this country as far as the economy goes....due to the vast amount of stupid & lazy people breeding while smart people don't.

Thank you for that detailed response and now I get your point. And I agree. Are the wage pressures and difficulty obtaining strong employees going to cause the economy to grind to a halt?

Good growth is excellent.

I mean wage growth will lead to higher costs to the consumers, which in theory will be absorbed with the increased wages--but is that a one for one?

Course it will lead to better efficiencies and innovations, but those take time.

Not to mention, I would guess that in the short term,companies will be reluctant to raise prices, forcing layoffs to support the increased wage inputs....but what's the breaking point?

[MDC 7,881]

He was right. We are going to get tired of winning.

[Cdub100 3,995]

Woah big fella. Who said anyone wants this to do worse? I don't. I'm just wondering if this is sustainable. And this isn't from any article. I'm asking my own questions. I see cracks in the system. Big ones. And I'm unsure of these are minor or an indication of s omethong worse.

 

No politics here or hinted at. If I gave that impression, it wasn't my intention

 

The economy goes up and the economy goes down. Frankly, wages are starting to move up to where they should be. Wage growth as been stagnate for the last 9 years hitting all time lows in 2013.

 

And yes you inferred you wanted it to get worse. When you title your thread can the economy be too strong and then list a bunch of reason why it might go down. You see it in crappy journalism and when called out you fall back on the same sorry excuse they give of I was just wondering (asking the question).

 

So to answer your question No with Trump as president we have not even begun to peak

[supermike80 2,082]

 

The economy goes up and the economy goes down. Frankly, wages are starting to move up to where they should be. Wage growth as been stagnate for the last 9 years hitting all time lows in 2013.

 

And yes you inferred you wanted it to get worse. When you title your thread can the economy be too strong and then list a bunch of reason why it might go down. You see it in crappy journalism and when called out you fall back on the same sorry excuse they give of I was just wondering (asking the question).

 

So to answer your question No with Trump as president we have not even begun to peak

I didn't infer crap. You jumped to that.

But fair, to be clear, I'm not hoping it falters. That's not a fall back. It's a legit question. You don't have an answer and thats fine. Not sure there is an answer yet. One if those wait and see.

[frank 2,343]

When does it all end, huh? How many yachts can you water-ski behind? How much is enough?

[LOD01 199]

Thank you for that detailed response and now I get your point. And I agree. Are the wage pressures and difficulty obtaining strong employees going to cause the economy to grind to a halt?

Good growth is excellent.

I mean wage growth will lead to higher costs to the consumers, which in theory will be absorbed with the increased wages--but is that a one for one?

Course it will lead to better efficiencies and innovations, but those take time.

Not to mention, I would guess that in the short term,companies will be reluctant to raise prices, forcing layoffs to support the increased wage inputs....but what's the breaking point?

The talking heads are all saying recession coming in late 2019, early 2020. Before that they were talking this year but pushed it back. They haven't yet grasped this idea of mine that you can't have a recession when no one can keep up with orders and can't find enough qualified workers to get full production.

 

Now the wall street owned companies will be pressured to increase profits but can they afford to lay off good workers with the possibility of not finding cheaper replacements in order to increase the bottom line? That's usually how recessions go. They lay off high priced, good workers knowing they will get lower paid, just as good replacements from other companies that have laid off their workers.

[MTSkiBum 1,626]

When does it all end, huh? How many yachts can you water-ski behind? How much is enough?

0.

 

Yachts do not have the acceleration or speed to pull a water skier.

[frank 2,343]

0.

 

Yachts do not have the acceleration or speed to pull a water skier.

I don't know where you get your information, but I don't like it.

[SenatorRock 708]

Recent research has shown the empirical evidence for globalization of corporate innovation is very limited. And as a corollary, the market for technologies is shrinking.

 

As a world leader, it is important for America to provide systematic research grants for our scientists. I believe there will always be a need for us to have a well-articulated innovation policy with emphasis on human resource development. Thank you.

 

I take back my insult from earlier.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

When does it all end, huh? How many yachts can you water-ski behind? How much is enough?

We are Americans. Enough is not in our cultural vocabulary. There is just more.

 

Its kind of the double edged sword of our makeup. On the one hand, it has spurred us to always do better. Faster. Bigger. On the one hand, we are never satisfied and never very happy.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

0.

 

Yachts do not have the acceleration or speed to pull a water skier.

Clearly, you are molly coddling your rowers.

[SenatorRock 708]

Yes, it's possible for the economy to be too strong. That's why the Federal reserve manipulates the prime rate to throttle inflation.

Which makes the boom right now all the more impressive.

 

The rate was lowered to almost zero for pretty much all of Obama's two terms. It was raised once in 2016.

 

Since Trump won the election they have raised the rate 5 times.

 

Not even the Fed can stump the Trump.

[SUXBNME 1,594]

The issue is not a shortage of workers capable of doing the job.

In my line of werk, this is EXACTLY the problem.

 

<insert dumbass oil change joke here>

 

eta: There IS a shortage

[SUXBNME 1,594]

. The issue is shortage of humans who have an IQ above retard. You can't fix that by raising wages.

 

Completely agree with the bolded...Well, actually completely agree with the whole sentence.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

In my line of werk, this is EXACTLY the problem.

 

<insert dumbass oil change joke here>

 

eta: There IS a shortage

A large part of the problem is our education system. Its hideously outdated.

 

We need to move to a more vocational model. If you want to read Shakespeare and Emily Dickenson, do it on your own time. Schools should have two paths... a white collar path, with lots of computer skills and actual writing and whatnot, and another that trains people to work on machines and such.

[RaiderHaters Revenge 4,543]

A large part of the problem is our education system. Its hideously outdated.

 

We need to move to a more vocational model. If you want to read Shakespeare and Emily Dickenson, do it on your own time. Schools should have two paths... a white collar path, with lots of computer skills and actual writing and whatnot, and another that trains people to work on machines and such.

 

been saying it for years, even was preaching it when Bernie says free college for all

 

the free college should be trade school, which runs maybe 5k. We need more blue collar workers, and quite frankly there is a lot more money and stability in that field, and much less turnover

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

 

been saying it for years, even was preaching it when Bernie says free college for all

 

the free college should be trade school, which runs maybe 5k. We need more blue collar workers, and quite frankly there is a lot more money and stability in that field, and much less turnover

Honesty, its far too late, but we should get away from the school model almost entirely. At least post secondary.

 

The apprentice model back in the day had it much better. If you are a licensed whatever, and you need help, you get qualified to take on an apprentice. That person then works for you for very little money for x amount of time. You then certify that they are competent.

 

Want to be a welder? Go work with one. Lawyer? Go work with one. Youll learn more that way than in law school anyway. Its how it used to be done.

 

I think some unions still do this no?

 

Fock this noise of having a bunch of overpriced institutions that are the sole arbiters of qualification, but in reality hand out diplomas like candy.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,911]

I never understood why someone couldn't just go to law school. Why the need to have a bachelors in something before attending? Take the LSAT, if you get a good enough grade, apply to a Law school.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

I never understood why someone couldn't just go to law school. Why the need to have a bachelors in something before attending? Take the LSAT, if you get a good enough grade, apply to a Law school.

There are a couple of states, California I think is one, where you dont have to go to school at all. Anyone can sit for the bar.

 

I had a friend in law school that had never been to actual college classes before. He got his degree on a ship in the navy out in the ocean somewhere.

 

Im in no way belittling the value of his degree. But I know he struggled mightily out first year of law school. Thats a deep pool to be thrown in for the first time.

 

Law school isnt like other schools. That first year is intense. Traditionally, they admitted a third more than they intended to graduate, and flunked a third out after year one. They would say look to your left, look to your right. One of you wont be here after exams.

 

That part is gone. But they still have the other traditional parts. They deliberately give you far more work to do than any person could actually do. Then when you are caught unprepared in class, they humiliate you in front of the others. It becomes a hyper competitive fishbowl atmosphere. My class had 128 students in two classes of 64. We ate, drank, lived and breathed together. I honestly started having doubts that Id make it through the first year.

 

After that, it becomes a routine. You know the drill. You have the skills necessary to either keep up with the workload, or bs your way through it. The teachers tone down the Socratic torture. It becomes less effective over time anyway.

 

Med students always said med school is far easier than law school. I know people that have done both and say its not even close. Their baptism by fire comes later, in the residency process.