Fantasy Football isn't all luck they say?

[Gratefulegg1973 271]

lol. #1 team in total pts all year:

 

Mahomes (vs Balt this week)

Mixon (nosedive due to Green and Dalton)

Hunt

Connor

OBJ

Hilton

 

Fock this stupid game.

[EternalShinyAndChrome 4,340]

Total points don't mean squat in head-to-head leagues unless you're trying to break a tie

[weepaws 3,449]

All four leagues Im in we play both Head to Head and a full season of total points.

 

Ff has been and will be luck.

 

Sorry to the OP for the difficulty your team is now going through.

[bobby heenan 60]

show me your league lineup requrements....and your roster requirements.....and your roster...and ill tell you if you have a legit gripe

[unclemercy 53]

cry all you need but save condemning hilton for now thanks

[sderk 1,040]

I really don't understand why anyone who thinks FF is all luck frequents a FF chat site and offers and/or takes FF advice.

[weepaws 3,449]

Faith in things not seen.

 

But watch thou in all things, endure afflictions, do the work of an evangelist, make full proof of thy ministry.

2 Timothy 4:5.

Amen

[stonewall 647]

Pays to have a strong bench, for sure.

 

Don't worry.....Mahomie will save you!

[SpenceToons 70]

I really don't understand why anyone who thinks FF is all luck frequents a FF chat site and offers and/or takes FF advice.

 

+1

 

(and that also goes for yesterday's post claiming that Henry's big game was somehow a case-closed that FF is 100% luck. The only thing these examples show is that FF is an endeavor that contains high variance.)

[sderk 1,040]

+1

 

(and that also goes for yesterday's post claiming that Henry's big game was somehow a case-closed that FF is 100% luck. The only thing these examples show is that FF is an endeavor that contains high variance.)

Seriously. This weepaws dude is the most advice offering person on this site, but keeps saying it's 100% luck.

 

I can only guess he thinks his god is feeding him the FF rankings. It's mind boggling.

[Phil Simms 11 134]

I think Hilton plays

[Phil Simms 11 134]

Curious to see Mahomes this week I have a BYE, he has a tough schedule with LAC and SEA coming up.

[Ehlana 25]

Chargers and Seahawks aren't tough match ups.

 

Also, if FF was all luck you wouldn't have the same teams making the playoffs in your long standing league.

[Ehlana 25]

Actually I take that back. The Chargers are pretty stingy against QBs. I didn't think they were.

[SpenceToons 70]

Seriously. This weepaws dude is the most advice offering person on this site, but keeps saying it's 100% luck.

 

I can only guess he thinks his god is feeding him the FF rankings. It's mind boggling.

 

I suspect that if weepaws sat down at the end of the year and rigorously tested the framework that he leans on to make his FF decisions that he would find that it provides him with a small edge vs just tossing a coin to make lineup decisions and sit-start calls. Perhaps a success rate along the lines of 10 steps forward for every 9 steps back. That might not sound like much but for every 100 tosses, he'd expect to be +5 ahead.

 

Armed with such data, he could then say, "No, FF is not all luck. My experience has proven to me that if someone is diligent at it they can hammer out a small edge."

 

The reason why I lean this way is that if I spent as much time and trouble keeping the type of comprehensive and updated ranking system (even if this just means that he does a lot of it in his head) that weepaws seems to lean on to make his calls and it wasn't working for me, I would have abandoned it long ago.

[SpenceToons 70]

 

 

Also, if FF was all luck you wouldn't have the same teams making the playoffs in your long standing league.

 

And, really, you don't need much more evidence than this.

[JustinCharge 2,397]

The luck part is the fact that the team in your league that just randomly happens to have the most points scored against it often misses the playoffs no matter what they do. I was that team this year. I had the most points scored on me this year and finished 6-7, missed the playoffs. I had Luck, Kamara, Chubb, JuJu, Woods...didn't matter. I lost to the last place team by 2 points because they just happened to have the Denver defense when they faced Arizona and it scored 46 points. Denver scored 2 defensive TDs, got 6 sacks lol. It felt like every week, the high score of the week was the team I played. Just nuts.

[Phil Simms 11 134]

Actually I take that back. The Chargers are pretty stingy against QBs. I didn't think they were.

I feel like the Hawks are trending upwards as well. I know SF passed a ton, but SeA was up big and SF got 75 on one play.

 

I expect Mahomie to be fine BTW, if he is even average this week would feel even more confident in that.

[nospk 230]

Luck can go against you or for you. I compare ff to playing poker. Luck plus strategy, knowing when to drop or keep & when to start or sit players

[LaChup 278]

I don't really don't understand why anyone who thinks FF is all luck frequents a FF chat site and offers and/or takes FF advice.

Is this a double reverse meant to trick us? "don't really don't understand"? So you do understand

[sderk 1,040]

Is this a double reverse meant to trick us? "don't really don't understand"? So you do understand

Just a quick comment on my part and I didn't check my grammar. I'm guessing you couldn't read into the message. That's ok dude. Fixed.

 

 

Grammar police guy on a FF website. Jeez.

[oldtimer 84]

I've always thought this; Fantasy Football does require a lot of luck to win a league. That said, the same people make the playoffs in my leagues almost every year. I'd say it's 50/50 on the luck vs. skill debate. If it were "all" luck, then the turnover amongst the playoff teams would be much higher. I think it boils down to how you describe luck. If I do the research and start someone over someone else, and the player I started has a great day, some will still say that is luck. I do not. I think it's research combined with luck, but not just luck. I think good research can give you a 10% edge, possibly a bit more, over other owners. It isn't much, but that edge is what keeps the same owners repeatedly winning year after year.

[Gratefulegg1973 271]

I've always thought this; Fantasy Football does require a lot of luck to win a league. That said, the same people make the playoffs in my leagues almost every year. I'd say it's 50/50 on the luck vs. skill debate. If it were "all" luck, then the turnover amongst the playoff teams would be much higher. I think it boils down to how you describe luck. If I do the research and start someone over someone else, and the player I started has a great day, some will still say that is luck. I do not. I think it's research combined with luck, but not just luck. I think good research can give you a 10% edge, possibly a bit more, over other owners. It isn't much, but that edge is what keeps the same owners repeatedly winning year after year.

 

I agree with that, but just to a small point. I started playing fantasy in the early 90s. There was no internet. Which meant, the only real way to know anything was by watching the games and researching the players. Nowadays, everyone, regardless of how lazy or incompetent they are, has the same access to all the information as everyone else. That eliminates much of the 'skill'.

[stonewall 647]

Nowadays, everyone, regardless of how lazy or incompetent they are, has the same access to all the information as everyone else. That eliminates much of the 'skill'.

 

Yes, except....95% of the FF websites spew the same tripe. What I have discovered, since the advent of the interwebnet, is that the guys who have an eye for football and aren't afraid to buck popular opinion, consistently make the playoffs. At that point (playoffs), all bets are off......except for those who planned for player schedules during the FF playoffs have a slight edge over those who didn't.

[Fireballer 2,694]

The luck part is the fact that the team in your league that just randomly happens to have the most points scored against it often misses the playoffs no matter what they do. I was that team this year. I had the most points scored on me this year and finished 6-7, missed the playoffs. I had Luck, Kamara, Chubb, JuJu, Woods...didn't matter. I lost to the last place team by 2 points because they just happened to have the Denver defense when they faced Arizona and it scored 46 points. Denver scored 2 defensive TDs, got 6 sacks lol. It felt like every week, the high score of the week was the team I played. Just nuts.

This. All of my losses I would have beaten every team that week except my opponent. I finished 10-3, highest point scorer by over 100 pts. As luck would have it, im playing the last seed who just happens to be the 2nd highest point scorer and he finished 5-8. He has a helluva a team and just seemed to run into a buzz saw every week. He prob gonna smoke me now after losing Gordon Conner and now OBJ.

[Smileseers 54]

I find that the harder I work, the more luck I seems to have.

 

John Heward, Proverbs

[huskyhater75 242]

You GOTTA KNOW how to play the waiver wire-getting a good draft is really cool, but knowing how to get guys off of waivers during the season is SO key to how you finish! If you get a bad draft it's not a big deal-it's studying the sites (THIS is a great one) and knowing which players to pick up week-week. Gary Player the golfer-"the more I work the 'luckier' I am"...……………….

[Spinner 0]

lol. #1 team in total pts all year:

 

Mahomes (vs Balt this week)

Mixon (nosedive due to Green and Dalton)

Hunt

Connor

OBJ

Hilton

 

Fock this stupid game.

On the other hand, you seem to have been fairly skillful and/or lucky in gathering a good roster; consider it a consolation; you'll be back

 

My problem is, the bad beats hurt worse than the close wins feel good.

[LaChup 278]

You know what they say about losing? "It builds character."

 

Well, I must have a lot of character.

[jimaveli 119]

Good luck can happen and turn a decent pick into a brilliant one. Or five. Bad luck can happen and ruin an otherwise good squad. It happens. Round up what you can, play it out, then go from there.

[JustinCharge 2,397]

The top team in my league has Mahomes and Lindsey. The second best team drafted Ty Hilton, Tyreek Hill and Brees.

[edjr 7,050]

lol. #1 team in total pts all year:

 

Mahomes (vs Balt this week)

Mixon (nosedive due to Green and Dalton)

Hunt

Connor

OBJ

Hilton

 

Fock this stupid game.

 

 

like texas hold 'em, it's about 75% luck

[jimaveli 119]

You GOTTA KNOW how to play the waiver wire-getting a good draft is really cool, but knowing how to get guys off of waivers during the season is SO key to how you finish! If you get a bad draft it's not a big deal-it's studying the sites (THIS is a great one) and knowing which players to pick up week-week. Gary Player the golfer-"the more I work the 'luckier' I am"....

Nope. It helps but it is not foolproof for sure if other teams get luckier with health.

 

I have a league where the finals is now 2 teams who are notorious for not watching or following actual football basically ever. They both drafted solid teams and have evaded most injuries, role shenanigans, and tmz. The biggest injury between the two of them was Alex Collins. That same team spent the first month rolling with Tampa Qbs. The other team has a parade of Kamara, Cohen, and Riddick at rb. But Tyreek Hill and Kelce means party in the USA and an almost-certain championship.