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IGotWorms

Is it time to get out of the market?

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2 days ago....it was down like 800.   I couldn't buy in that day...had to get funds in.
Yesterday, I put a big chunk of $ into market, it was up 300. 
Today, down 300.  (so far). okay now 400

So, in summary.......FOCCCCCKKKKK!  

 

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43 minutes ago, tubby_mcgee said:

2 days ago....it was down like 800.   I couldn't buy in that day...had to get funds in.
Yesterday, I put a big chunk of $ into market, it was up 300. 
Today, down 300.  (so far). okay now 400

So, in summary.......FOCCCCCKKKKK!  

 

You can't time the market!!!!!!

But seriously, you should not have bought in as it was up 300. If you didn't have the funds to buy in right after that drop and before the bounce, should have sat it out.

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9 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

You can't time the market!!!!!!

But seriously, you should not have bought in as it was up 300. If you didn't have the funds to buy in right after that drop and before the bounce, should have sat it out.

That is what people have to resist.  It is like trying to catch a wave.  If you miss a wave, wait until there is another. I always try to catch myself to avoid making that mistake (and sometimes I actually do it).  

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I've been 50 percent cash for awhile and went full 100 percent the other day. I'll start dollar cost averaging back in the market but probably not for awhile maybe not even this year.

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2 minutes ago, kutulu said:

I've been 50 percent cash for awhile and went full 100 percent the other day. I'll start dollar cost averaging back in the market but probably not for awhile maybe not even this year.

We should blow thru the 200 day MA this month. at a minimum, test the June lows. The more it looks like a recession on the horizon, the more it drops past that.

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5 minutes ago, kutulu said:

I've been 50 percent cash for awhile and went full 100 percent the other day. I'll start dollar cost averaging back in the market but probably not for awhile maybe not even this year.

How are you able to invest just $1?

 

 

In all seriousness, how could you go all cash?  Where do you put it and still have it being FDIC insured?

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13 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

How are you able to invest just $1?

 

 

In all seriousness, how could you go all cash?  Where do you put it and still have it being FDIC insured?

Utilizing multiple institutions? Utilizing annuities backed by insurance companies rather than FDIC (which is really meaningless when you think about it). 

Or perhaps he means a money market option in his 401k or IRA account

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On 8/5/2019 at 6:12 PM, cbfalcon said:

I’m doing my own experiment. It’s where I got like half out last week, then back all the way in, then most the way out, then back half way in, then put most my money in an ETF that is weighted to perform at 3x inverse of Nasdaq 100. 

Overall, the experiment results are indicating this isn’t optimal, with more recent signs of possible success forthcoming. 

So your market strategy is basically the rhythm method combined with just the tip? 

  • Haha 2

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2 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

Utilizing multiple institutions? Utilizing annuities backed by insurance companies rather than FDIC (which is really meaningless when you think about it). 

Or perhaps he means a money market option in his 401k or IRA account

I know those are options (and there are others).  I was more trying to figure out what kutulu used (if anything).  I have too many different accounts to even consider it.  :lol:

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16 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

 

Or perhaps he means a money market option in his 401k or IRA account

401k mm...believe it's a vanguard fund

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57 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

You can't time the market!!!!!!

But seriously, you should not have bought in as it was up 300. If you didn't have the funds to buy in right after that drop and before the bounce, should have sat it out.

 

True...and that's why I bought yesterday. Advisor said how it was down a ton over the past 10 days...etc (which it was, I wasn't aware just how much).  I thought about putting half in yesterday, then waiting on the other half (I funded my SEP for 2019). Again tho, that's trying to time the market. 

Had I waited yesterday out....it would have been better than putting money in.  Today woulda been better.  That's in hindsight tho.

What if I had not put it in, and it was up 400 today?  Then up 230 the next, etc...I'd have "missed out"

So, if all stands true about not timing, I should just put the money in, and fuggetabahtit....




 

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11 minutes ago, tubby_mcgee said:

 

True...and that's why I bought yesterday. Advisor said how it was down a ton over the past 10 days...etc (which it was, I wasn't aware just how much).  I thought about putting half in yesterday, then waiting on the other half (I funded my SEP for 2019). Again tho, that's trying to time the market. 

Had I waited yesterday out....it would have been better than putting money in.  Today woulda been better.  That's in hindsight tho.

What if I had not put it in, and it was up 400 today?  Then up 230 the next, etc...I'd have "missed out"

So, if all stands true about not timing, I should just put the money in, and fuggetabahtit....




 

True, my point is since you were trying to somewhat time the market and you even stated you didn't have the finds ready to buy Monday afternoon.... when you saw it up Tuesday you should have waited or like you said, invested half.

It wasn't long enough of a drop to be considered a crash or true correction so not sure what your advisor was doing unless he just wanted you to cost average down. 

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1 hour ago, lod001 said:

We should blow thru the 200 day MA this month. at a minimum, test the June lows. The more it looks like a recession on the horizon, the more it drops past that.

There is no sign of a recession.

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I put $350 in my son's 529 and within a week it's less than when I put the money in. Only 12 years to go . 

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21 minutes ago, edjr said:

I put $350 in my son's 529 and within a week it's less than when I put the money in. Only 12 years to go . 

I saved up for both of kids in 529's since the day that they were born.  First one just graduated high school and he doesn't want to go to college.  :lol:

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27 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

I saved up for both of kids in 529's since the day that they were born.  First one just graduated high school and he doesn't want to go to college.  :lol:

:wall:  

 

I think you can save it until he smartens up

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1 minute ago, edjr said:

:wall:  

 

I think you can save it until he smartens up

It can be passed down to other siblings or I can use it for my own education.  It is fairly transferrable, but just not money for him.  :)

He should be fine.  He wants to join the union.  

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8 hours ago, riversco said:

There is no sign of a recession.

By the time you see the signs we are well into it. That's how they always are.

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59 minutes ago, lod001 said:

By the time you see the signs we are well into it. That's how they always are.

I can usually spot a recession 2-3 days in advance. :dunno:

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On 7/29/2019 at 8:45 PM, WhiteWonder said:

 

My point was whenever there are topics like this, you can bet on a handful of people who have to chirp "yoou know how many people made boat loads buying stock in 2009ish? If only I had more money to play with as a college student.

I too know what stock I should have bought in 2009. That's the thing about hindsight.

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44 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

I too know what stock I should have bought in 2009. That's the thing about hindsight.


The problem with the 2008/2009 thing is......

IF you had money, it was probably ALREADY in the market/invested somehow.

IF you had cash, it probably wasn't a enough to buy enough stocks to make a difference.  Of course, yeah....there will be a few hand picked hindsight ones where $5k or $10k in 2009 would be worth 300k now.....but that is ...well...hindsight.

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5 hours ago, lod001 said:

By the time you see the signs we are well into it. That's how they always are.

One of the LAST things to occur in a recession is a stock market crash.  Its best to wait to see signs.  We don't see signs yet, so the stock market will head to new highs again.

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7 hours ago, riversco said:

One of the LAST things to occur in a recession is a stock market crash.  Its best to wait to see signs.  We don't see signs yet, so the stock market will head to new highs again.

You must be blind. The bond market tells you all you need to know

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1 minute ago, IGotWorms said:

You must be blind. The bond market tells you all you need to know

Easy peasy. I'm rich!!

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One good thing I did do was add to my AMD shares on Tuesday 

Wish I had bought roku. Then again it's been on my watch list since 25 dollars per share so... whoops.

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Lots of dumb in here.

 

“It’s not timing the market that’s important it’s time in the market that’s important.”

 

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27 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

One good thing I did do was add to my AMD shares on Tuesday 

Wish I had bought roku. Then again it's been on my watch list since 25 dollars per share so... whoops.

So, I bought ROKU when it was $34.  Held it for a bit and when it got to $65, I bailed on it.  My son and wife were telling me to sell and I was stupid enough to listen.  I just told them yesterday that it was over $120.  :wall:

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On 8/7/2019 at 10:24 PM, tubby_mcgee said:


The problem with the 2008/2009 thing is......

IF you had money, it was probably ALREADY in the market/invested somehow.

IF you had cash, it probably wasn't a enough to buy enough stocks to make a difference.  Of course, yeah....there will be a few hand picked hindsight ones where $5k or $10k in 2009 would be worth 300k now.....but that is ...well...hindsight.

My dad bought sh!t loads of visa in 2009. It was around $16 then. It's at $172 today. Good job dad. 

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On 8/9/2019 at 9:27 AM, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

So, I bought ROKU when it was $34.  Held it for a bit and when it got to $65, I bailed on it.  My son and wife were telling me to sell and I was stupid enough to listen.  I just told them yesterday that it was over $120.  :wall:

Normally I don't worry about it once I sell a stock for a gain. A gain is a gain. I definitely sold match group too soon and back when Facebook had its IPO I decided to wait for what I felt would be an initial dip (correct), bought some, but sold in the 40s. :D

but I imagine you probably sold ROKU back in March April or May so yeah, I get the regret when it's $60 per share higher.

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my callaway golf stock is up yooge this week

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56 minutes ago, edjr said:

my callaway golf stock is up yooge this week

Time to get out of the market. Some guy who knows 10 years later that 2009 was a the right time to buy back into the market says so.

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1 hour ago, edjr said:

my callaway golf stock is up yooge this week

Might want to sell because he just got suspended 4 games.  Didn't know he was a golfer tho.

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Wish I could pull the trigger but I see no upside except 1 final last gasp to get out when the fed lowers rates on Sept 1st. I'll guess it will be a rip roaring all is well bear market rally that rocks and then fades soon after and if yesterday was not the last chance to get out of this market, that will be.

On ‎8‎/‎7‎/‎2019 at 12:52 PM, riversco said:

There is no sign of a recession.

How about now?

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Those of you who want to pull out of the market, where do you plan to put your money?

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6 minutes ago, cbfalcon said:

I picked the wrong week to put my entire portfolio into Overstock.com 🤕

may be better than macy's

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3 hours ago, cbfalcon said:

I picked the wrong week to put my entire portfolio into Overstock.com 🤕

I’m telling ya JCPenney is gonna rebound!

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4 hours ago, bandrus1 said:

Retail getting killed today

I can see why.

The other day, I went to the local Dillard's in Memphis. I always do, as it is one of the few places with a big and tall section.

Place had crazy sales on. I got three pairs of shorts and five shirts for less than $100. Hardest part was locating a staff member to ring me up. Probably could have just walked out with whatever I wanted. 

I was shocked. The mall was damn near empty on a weekend. 

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