Chubb?

[Bills04 45]

WTH?  I'm seeing several drafts where CLE RB N. Chubb is going in the second round.

 

Aren't people worried about what will happen mid-season with Hunt comes off suspension?!  Where are YOU ranking Chubb??

[tanatastic 2,061]

Not worried about a guy who will only be relevent starting week 10. Chubb will be the main man for 8 games then at worst be the 1a in a strong offense. I’d look at Chubb starting at the end of the 1st. He has top 5 upside and still top 10 upside once Hunt is active if he gets a big role.

[Bier Meister 1,512]

20 hours ago, tanatastic said:

Not worried about a guy who will only be relevent starting week 10. Chubb will be the main man for 8 games then at worst be the 1a in a strong offense. I’d look at Chubb starting at the end of the 1st. He has top 5 upside and still top 10 upside once Hunt is active if he gets a big role.

I like chubb but agree with this (more or less).  I have him in a keeper league (kelce/ertz/chubb/ab... ppr, ppr for te=1.5) and will draft to account for week 10+ assuming chubb moves to a flex spot vs rb for me.  

if we draft him we can/should look at upside rbs for the second half of the year if we cannot get hunt.

[weepaws 2,456]

14 team league, he’s a first round pick. 

I have him ranked very high. 

Not worried about Hunt.  

[Kopy 489]

Chubb gives me a chubby.

Love him, and have no fear of taking him as a RB1

 

[Gipaldo 8]

Don't like hm as much as the above, but he should be solid top 10 RB

That said, he did pretty much win me my league last year with the best pick up of the season

[Super Cubs 132]

No fear of Hunt. While I do think he is a good player. I think some of his success maybe a product of the KC system.

[jrokh 568]

I currently rank The Chubby One as my # 7 RB in .5ppr setting. If Zeke doesn't report when September begins, I will move him up to # 6.

[RLLD 3,455]

Best case scenario, Chubb delivers high value even three weeks after the return of Hunt. After that he exists as bench depth, because diminished usage might actually become your friend during the playoffs, and Hunt could very well get injured. 

I am far more concerned with touches overall, as in how will they keep all those high maintenance personalities happy with touches?

Chubb is high value for at least 5 weeks, decent value for another 3, solid backup depth at the very least with lots of upside.

[jrokh 568]

25 minutes ago, RLLD said:

Best case scenario, Chubb delivers high value even three weeks after the return of Hunt. After that he exists as bench depth, because diminished usage might actually become your friend during the playoffs, and Hunt could very well get injured. 

I am far more concerned with touches overall, as in how will they keep all those high maintenance personalities happy with touches?

Chubb is high value for at least 5 weeks, decent value for another 3, solid backup depth at the very least with lots of upside.

Hunt is suspended 8 games, so high value for at least that long, and likely 10 games.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

They cut Duke to make way for Hunt.  If you draft Chubb, might want to blow a late round on Hunt.  He'll be a nice handcuff in case Chubb gets hurt. 

Hunt has massive upside appeal.

[cmh6476 750]

Hunt is going to be motivated as hell.  He is going to come in mid-season and be fresh as hell.  And for those talking about the product of a system in KC, the KC offense was much more dynamic with Hunt and when he was released it was still one of the best offenses in the league but it wasn't the same. 

I am concerned.  This is the NFL and if you have playmakers you work to get the ball in their hands.  With OBJ and Landry and Njoku and the athletic ability of Mayfield this is going to be a very dynamic offense.  But for the Browns it probably makes more since to spread the ball around and keep your workhorses fresh heading into the last quarter of the season and to gear up for a playoff run. 

Chubb got 2-3 carries per game until week 7.  Then he was getting around 18-20 carries per game with about 3 receiving targets with just a couple outliers.  If you know what you have in Hunt, why wouldn't you scale that back a bit and put the ball in Chubb's hands 14-16 times a game and rely more on Hunt as the pass-catching threat who is more dynamic in that capacity?  Duke Johnson was only getting 2 or 3 carries at the end of the year.  I think they would be silly not to look at ways to get the ball in Hunt's hand more often than that.

If I had to guess I would say for Chubb:

1st 8 games: 20 carries per game, 100 yards; 3 receptions per game, 15 yards (5 total TDs)

2nd half: 16 carries per game, 80 yards; 1 reception per game, 5 yards (4 total TDs)

So an overall year of 1,600 total yards, and 9 total TDs.  That's a great year but when you need to count on your top RBs the most, at the end of the year is when I think his production will drop a little.  I would be a little hesitant with where he is being drafted and by all means if you get him, I would try and handcuff with Hunt very early.

 

[cmh6476 750]

Hunt finished 8th overall in standard scoring, despite missing 5 games

[defectivesupport 5]

I honestly have no idea where the Cleveland offense is the best in the league thing came from.  They added OBJ and suddenly they are amazing?  This assumes the offense will throw more...and well.  If the consensus is that OBJ and Mayfield will do well - why is chubb still being rated as a top round pick.  With similar offense last year Chubbs last 6 games went:

[RUSH-TD/Rec yds - TD]

81-0 / 44-1 -bengals with backup QB and missing green.

34-1/ 34-0  - texans

66-1 /17-0 - Panthers

100-0 / 0-0 - Broncos

112-0/ 3-0 - Bengals with backup QB, no green or boyd.

24-0/(-4)-0 - Ravens

So literally every game they faced a decent team, chubb had a RB2-3 game.  Without the bengals games, chubb averages 50 yards rushing with 2 catches for 20 yards.  This is barely an RB2.  The moment they decide to keep chubb fresh or mayfield rushes 5 times a game, he is around the territory of the 4th round.  Then hunt comes back and probably steals 5-10 carries a game?  Chubb's ceiling is probably 100 rushing and 4-30 per game, but given last year, the TD's don't go to him unless he breaks a long run.   I'm avoiding chubb rounds 1-2 as I do not feel he is anywhere near as safe as his ranking lets on.

 

 

[Ray_T 588]

On 8/18/2019 at 9:29 AM, Super Cubs said:

No fear of Hunt. While I do think he is a good player. I think some of his success maybe a product of the KC system.

There is this.

but...... Even if you believe Hunt is the better back......there is also a good chance that he takes some time to wrestle the starting job away from Chubb.

Keep in mind Chubb has been playing with the team all year long while Hunt is suspended.    By this point in the season he and the O line know how to read each other and work together.  Hunt wont have this.   and because he hasnt been practicing with the team, week 10 is the equivalent of week 1 or 2 of exhibition for this guy.

so even if he has superior talent (and I agree he may)  I dont see him wrestling the starting job away before week 13 or 14.   

There is also the possibility that Hunt has no chance to become the starter until next year.

There is another possible outcome:

Cleveland maybe is planning on trading Hunt to get another asset.    Think about it.... they sign him.    and dont have to pay him while he is suspended.

Hunt comes back, Cleveland trades him to a team in need of help at RB and it literally didnt cost them anything.

Lots of potential outcomes here.   But I do think Chubb is good for the regular season at least.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

As much as i like Chubb, i'm starting to think he's overvalued.   I'm seeing him go as high as 6th overall.  Production wise, a guy like Chris Carson who you can take in round 3/4 might have a better year.  I think a Hopkins (1st round) and a Carson (3rd) round would have a better year than Chubb (1st) and Hilton (3rd).  You guys see Carson's final 7 games last year?  Those are some damn impressive numbers.

 

 

[cmh6476 750]

11 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

Keep in mind Chubb has been playing with the team all year long while Hunt is suspended.    By this point in the season he and the O line know how to read each other and work together.  Hunt wont have this.   and because he hasnt been practicing with the team, week 10 is the equivalent of week 1 or 2 of exhibition for this guy.

In 2017, Hunt's rookie year, week 1 against the Pats he tallied 17 carries, 148 yards (8.7 avg), 5 receptions on 5 targets for 98 yards (19.6 avg), and 3 total TDs.  That was with the Alex Smith led Chiefs.

Yeah, that took a ton of time for him to get up to speed

[Bier Meister 1,512]

• Browns running backs coach Stump Mitchell said Nick Chubb will "be used a little more in the passing game" this season.

  "I think [Chubb's] going to be special like he was last year,’’ Mitchell said. "He’ll be used a little more in the passing game than he was last year. Nick just continues to improve on the skillset that he has, and I think he has a fantastic skillset.’’ Chubb averaged an increased 2.9 targets on 12.7 routes per game once coach Freddie Kitchens ceded Hue Jackson last season, and Duke Johnson's recent departure likely ensures those marks swell. Although Kareem Hunt could siphon third-down duties upon returning from his eight-game suspension to start the year, Chubb remains a potential positional week-winner and first-round option during the first half of the season.

  SOURCE: Cleveland.com

  Aug 21, 2019, 11:20 PM ET

   

•  

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

22 hours ago, cmh6476 said:

In 2017, Hunt's rookie year, week 1 against the Pats he tallied 17 carries, 148 yards (8.7 avg), 5 receptions on 5 targets for 98 yards (19.6 avg), and 3 total TDs.  That was with the Alex Smith led Chiefs.

Yeah, that took a ton of time for him to get up to speed

Yeah it doesn't take rbs long to get up to speed typically. They switch teams or come off the street with a new system and are just fine

[Ray_T 588]

3 hours ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

Yeah it doesn't take rbs long to get up to speed typically. They switch teams or come off the street with a new system and are just fine

I dont know if it's that easy.

but it is quicker than what it would be if a QB went to a new team.

 

[Ray_T 588]

On 8/21/2019 at 9:48 AM, cmh6476 said:

In 2017, Hunt's rookie year, week 1 against the Pats he tallied 17 carries, 148 yards (8.7 avg), 5 receptions on 5 targets for 98 yards (19.6 avg), and 3 total TDs.  That was with the Alex Smith led Chiefs.

Yeah, that took a ton of time for him to get up to speed

he also had the luxury of a full training camp and the opposing team having no film on him.

he wouldnt have been with the team for a number of weeks during the suspension.   that hurts and I'd argue the situation is not the same.

[justforbeer 39]

I am not drafting him.

Waaaay overvalued.

Second half of the season, he is splitting carries and playoff time will be a mess.

[jrokh 568]

Not that I needed it, but Just for Beer's analysis seals the deal. Nick Chubb will be a top5 RB in .5ppr

[joeshushu 51]

I picked from the 12th spot and snatched him up as my number one pick.  Hunt won’t be able to play until week 10 so not a concern to me.  As far as the playoffs,  I will cross that bridge if I am even in the hunt. Hopefully drafting Chubb helps me get there.

[cmh6476 750]

I have a chub for Nick Chubb this year.  I'm thinking he could end up being the top overall running back when all is said and done this year, if he can stay healthy (non ppr)

He's 27, with minimal wear and tear as last year was his first 300 yard carry season.  You got an unproven guy in Ford trying to pick up where Kareem Hunt left off, and I'm not convinced they won't just lean on Chubb more.  New defensive coordinator in Jim Schwartz and some playmakers on the defensive side of the ball should be able to keep them competitive.  And Deshaun has had a year to learn the offense and gel with playmakers, and Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, Peoples-Jones and Njoku should be enoughto keep teams honest and prevent them from stacking the box.

I'm probably not alone, though.  Is he the top pick after McCaffrey and Ekeler?

 

[GobbleDog 816]

34 minutes ago, cmh6476 said:

I have a chub for Nick Chubb this year.  I'm thinking he could end up being the top overall running back when all is said and done this year, if he can stay healthy (non ppr)

Cmh? Ya bumped a four year old Chubb thread ?   

See that little button that says "start new topic" ?  But since ya already bumped it... I rank Chubb Rb 1 for all the reasons you stated. He's the most likely Rb to finish with highest touches. The entire offense is built with one purpose - run Chubb. 

2nd round is the biggest travesty in fantasy football this year.

[cmh6476 750]

54 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Cmh? Ya bumped a four year old Chubb thread ?   

See that little button that says "start new topic" ?  But since ya already bumped it... I rank Chubb Rb 1 for all the reasons you stated. He's the most likely Rb to finish with highest touches. The entire offense is built with one purpose - run Chubb. 

2nd round is the biggest travesty in fantasy football this year.

I just try and search thread title and remain consistent

[weepaws 2,456]

.5 ppr, I have it Ekeler, Chubb, Mccaffery,   Ppr I have it Ekeler, Mccaffery, The Chubb.  

[jrokh 568]

Browns are planning to be more balanced on Offense this year. Not as run heavy. They also just traded for Pierre Strong and plan o using all 3 backs. That being said I expect Chubb to set a career high in receptions and receiving yards.

[Super Cubs 132]

I think Watson is a bigger threat to Chubb's value than his backups 

[GobbleDog 816]

8 minutes ago, Super Cubs said:

I think Watson is a bigger threat to Chubb's value than his backups 

Browns didn't give Watson many designed run plays last season. 

Maybe they were saving him for this year, or maybe Watson's running skills ain't what they used to be. We shall see.

[weepaws 2,456]

1 hour ago, Super Cubs said:

I think Watson is a bigger threat to Chubb's value than his backups 

Why? 

[Super Cubs 132]

7 hours ago, weepaws said:

Why? 

is this a trick question? Watson is a mobile QB that can turn nothing in the passing game into something with his legs.  Plus I think he'll vulture some TDs. 

[Ray_T 588]

36 minutes ago, Super Cubs said:

mobile QB that can turn nothing in the passing game into something with his legs.

see this situation you cited.     if its already a pass play, hes not taking away from Chubb.  (unless the pass was supposed to be to him I suppose)

but the designed Runs and RPO's where the QB runs with it..... those will take away from some of his carries..... at least somewhat

 

[weepaws 2,456]

3 hours ago, Super Cubs said:

I think Watson is a bigger threat to Chubb's value than his backups 

 

1 hour ago, Super Cubs said:

is this a trick question? Watson is a mobile QB that can turn nothing in the passing game into something with his legs.  Plus I think he'll vulture some TDs. 

That’s why I asked ,if he takes off on pass plays he’s not a threat to the Chubb.  I don’t see him stealing any short yardage goal line work from Chubb, they don’t need to risk an injury.  So I would disagree with Watson being a bigger threat to Chubb.  

Thats why I asked.  Sorry.  Thanks.  

[JagFan 97]

I’ve haven’t been high on Chubb the past few years because of Hunt.  Now with Hunt gone, I could see Chubb push for a #1 RB finish.  Also heard on the radio a week or so ago that Chubb was working on his pass catching as they intend to design more passes for him.  I doubt we see a huge uptick in catches, but do expect him to finish the season with his highest catch total yet.  I understand the new trend for taking a WR in rd1, but I was very pleased to get Chubb at the 10 pick in my first draft.

[GobbleDog 816]

3 hours ago, JagFan said:

I’ve haven’t been high on Chubb the past few years because of Hunt.  Now with Hunt gone, I could see Chubb push for a #1 RB finish.  Also heard on the radio a week or so ago that Chubb was working on his pass catching as they intend to design more passes for him.  I doubt we see a huge uptick in catches, but do expect him to finish the season with his highest catch total yet.  I understand the new trend for taking a WR in rd1, but I was very pleased to get Chubb at the 10 pick in my first draft.

I've got the 12th pick in my draft today and if Chubb is still there - I'll draft him and walk out. Don't need any more players after that. Call the wife and tell her to get ready - coming home with a Chubby.

[polecatt 401]

Nick Chubb...

I don't want this to sound like a put down, but I just don't get a great feeling about drafting him. Maybe if he managed to fall to the 3rd round or something I would.

However, he just doesn't seem to possess the upside a top notch RB typically does.

Chubb could very well end up being the RB1 this season. He will almost certainly have put up good numbers if he stays healthy.

I see that more of a result of the RB position being downgraded or lacking at the current time. I don't see him having a season like Derrick Henry had when he rushed for 2000 yards, or like when LT scored 31 TDs, or even like Emmitt did when he scored 25 TDs and rushed for 1700+

[Ray_T 588]

8 minutes ago, polecatt said:

Nick Chubb...

I don't want this to sound like a put down, but I just don't get a great feeling about drafting him. Maybe if he managed to fall to the 3rd round or something I would.

However, he just doesn't seem to possess the upside a top notch RB typically does.

Chubb could very well end up being the RB1 this season. He will almost certainly have put up good numbers if he stays healthy.

I see that more of a result of the RB position being downgraded or lacking at the current time. I don't see him having a season like Derrick Henry had when he rushed for 2000 yards, or like when LT scored 31 TDs, or even like Emmitt did when he scored 25 TDs and rushed for 1700+

for him its a volume thing.   he gets tons of carries, 1200-1500 yards and lots of TD.   pretty reliably between 8 and 12 TD.  and he does this playing for the Browns with a few games having negative game scripts.

if Desean Watson can turn this team into a playoff team, the upside for Chubb is very high.  comparable to Derek Henry of a couple years back.   can you imagine his stats if the team went 13-4 and he got all kinds of garbage time carries late in the game against tired Defenses?    I salivate at that.

that said, I am not 100% sold on Watson.   he will for sure be better than he was last year.   Not sure he will ever live up to that massive contract the Browns gave him.

but we are about to find out.   last year he shook off the rust.   This year he needs to perform.

[GobbleDog 816]

56 minutes ago, polecatt said:

However, he just doesn't seem to possess the upside a top notch RB typically does.

Chubb's '22 metrics ranking

True yac 9th, Yds per touch 13th, Juke Rate 4th, Evaded tackles 1st, Breakaway run rate 7th, Breakway runs 1st

Looks like he's still got juice. Browns o-line ranks 3rd on nearly every list, and they were the 8th highest rushing team last year... 5th if you subtract Qb rushing teams. The only thing that's changed in Cleveland is Hunt left, and that's probably good for Chubb. The Rb coach recently said Chubb was getting third down work in training camp to help fill Hunt's role. Minimal injury history - played 75 out of 81 possible games.

What's not to like?