Coronavirus - Doomsday

[nobody 2,044]

I would love the smoking gun saying covid isn't killing people.  For one, I don't even care if it is killing people because I think it's ludicrous to tank the economy over geriatric people with underlying conditions dying.   The problem is I'm an engineer and I understand statistics. 

Doctors, by the way, are surprisingly terrible at statistics.  They constantly commit base rate neglect which is why we have so many "medical miracles."

[TimHauck 1,802]

38 minutes ago, Reality said:

 

I wouldn’t totally disagree with this (except for maybe it being just a “normal winter season.”  For one winter has hardly even started (of course officially it hasn’t).

So do you admit it was bad in March/April/May?

[nobody 2,044]

It is tough to gauge covid by hospitalizations.  Hospitals want to make money, so they admit patients if they have space even if they don't need to.  That's why ICUs are always 85% full.  You really need to track patients on ventilators.  That's the one thing that I still trust they won't do unless absolutely necessary.

[Reality 2,710]

12 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

I wouldn’t totally disagree with this (except for maybe it being just a “normal winter season.”  For one winter has hardly even started (of course officially it hasn’t).

So do you admit it was bad in March/April/May?

It's hard to say really, 20k people die every day in this country. A lot of places were not staffed to handle Covid related cases and the virus was new. Didn't know how to treat it, putting people on ventilators when that caused more damage. It's in the interest of the hospital to fill beds. ICU's are always full, by design.

That doesn't seem to be the problem anymore and we know exactly who has a tough time with it now.

[TimHauck 1,802]

 

 

[Reality 2,710]

42 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

 

 

Not sure what story you're trying to tell with that tweet. The graph doesn't even make sense, and it's some random dude with no source.

[TimHauck 1,802]

10 minutes ago, Reality said:

Not sure what story you're trying to tell with that tweet. The graph doesn't even make sense, and it's some random dude with no source.

His source is the same as the author of the webinar - all cause weekly deaths from the CDC, as noted in the graph.   If you don’t know what it shows, then I’m not sure what to tell you (hint:  a lot more people have died so far in 2020 than at this point during the last 6 years).  

[Reality 2,710]

25 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

His source is the same as the author of the webinar - all cause weekly deaths from the CDC, as noted in the graph.   If you don’t know what it shows, then I’m not sure what to tell you (hint:  a lot more people have died so far in 2020 than at this point during the last 6 years).  

So, you should be extremely happy about the obvious trend shown in the graph.. What's the problem?

[TimHauck 1,802]

2 hours ago, Reality said:

So, you should be extremely happy about the obvious trend shown in the graph.. What's the problem?

Not sure what you mean by this?   I'm "happy" that some other people could see through the charade of that article/webinar.   I'm not happy hundreds of thousands of more people have died than otherwise would have, or that many people have lost their jobs or businesses as a result of the pandemic.  "The problem" is that the initial information came from someone that should have known what she was talking about, but apparently did not, and as a result many said "see, even Johns Hopkins thinks there weren't excess deaths!" when the data she displayed didn't even show that.   

If you are still doubting where the data in the last tweet came from, here is an easy link for 2019-2020: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/muzy-jte6

Export it, and then scroll down to line 5195 for total US.    Plot 2019 vs 2020 on a graph and for 2020 you will see the same curve as shown above.   Subtract the difference in the raw data by week through week 44 and you get almost 308k more deaths in 2020.   Yes, some of that can be explained by population growth, some of those may have been the result of lockdowns, and it's possible the end of the year declines since all those oldies were going to day anyway.   But there should be no denying that covid has caused at minimum 200k excess deaths in the US.

Although actually, since you guys like conspiracy theories...guess where the author of the "article" (not the webinar) moved to the US from in 2014?

https://hopkinsinsider.com/meet-jhu-2022-yanni-g/

https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/02/the-coronavirus-is-not-an-excuse-for-sinophobia

[Reality 2,710]

15 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Not sure what you mean by this?   I'm "happy" that some other people could see through the charade of that article/webinar.   I'm not happy hundreds of thousands of more people have died than otherwise would have, or that many people have lost their jobs or businesses as a result of the pandemic.  "The problem" is that the initial information came from someone that should have known what she was talking about, but apparently did not, and as a result many said "see, even Johns Hopkins thinks there weren't excess deaths!" when the data she displayed didn't even show that.   

If you are still doubting where the data in the last tweet came from, here is an easy link for 2019-2020: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/muzy-jte6

Export it, and then scroll down to line 5195 for total US.    Plot 2019 vs 2020 on a graph and for 2020 you will see the same curve as shown above.   Subtract the difference in the raw data by week through week 44 and you get almost 308k more deaths in 2020.   Yes, some of that can be explained by population growth, some of those may have been the result of lockdowns, and it's possible the end of the year declines since all those oldies were going to day anyway.   But there should be no denying that covid has caused at minimum 200k excess deaths in the US.

Although actually, since you guys like conspiracy theories...guess where the author of the "article" (not the webinar) moved to the US from in 2014?

https://hopkinsinsider.com/meet-jhu-2022-yanni-g/

https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/02/the-coronavirus-is-not-an-excuse-for-sinophobia

The graph is clearly trending down.

[TimHauck 1,802]

23 minutes ago, Reality said:

The graph is clearly trending down.

I hope it continues!  But 2 things:

1.  Still above all other years

2.  The more recent weeks tend to get deaths added to them later (not unique to covid)

 

[Utilit99 4,099]

4 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

I hope it continues!  But 2 things:

1.  Still above all other years

2.  The more recent weeks tend to get deaths added to them later (not unique to covid)

 

Dude, it's a global pandemic. Get over it. Everyone is trying hard. Even the "world expert" Fauci, who waffled back and forth on the masks and social gatherings wants this to be over. Everyone wants this over except biden and pelosi given the proof of biden calling calling Trump a xenophobe when Trump wanted to close down  air travel and borders, and pelosi of organizing a walk to san fran chinatown to build business and promote going out and frequenting those restaurants. 

Trump pushed the acceleration of vaccines and treatments more than any other president in history. And it's working. 

Deal with it. Take care of yourself like everyone else should and stop posting garbage stats that no one gives a crap about.

[nobody 2,044]

The point is that the article was trying to say there aren’t excess deaths which would imply that covid isn’t real.  We’re discussing the merits of the article.  And again, I don’t care about anyone’s parents or grandparents.  I couldn’t care less if they died, I just want to go out and eat and not where a mask.

[wiffleball 4,645]

3 hours ago, Reality said:

The graph is clearly trending down.

You are really not reading the newspaper are you? The big sheet of paper with words on it?

 

 

Do yourself a favor, leave this site for 5 minutes and actually go and read some stuff?

[Utilit99 4,099]

43 minutes ago, wiffleball said:

You are really not reading the newspaper are you? The big sheet of paper with words on it?

 

 

Do yourself a favor, leave this site for 5 minutes and actually go and read some stuff?

That new york times is some compelling stuff along with people magazine. You go wiff. They have all the answers you need in life.

[TimHauck 1,802]

8 hours ago, Utilit99 said:

Dude, it's a global pandemic. Get over it. Everyone is trying hard. Even the "world expert" Fauci, who waffled back and forth on the masks and social gatherings wants this to be over. Everyone wants this over except biden and pelosi given the proof of biden calling calling Trump a xenophobe when Trump wanted to close down  air travel and borders, and pelosi of organizing a walk to san fran chinatown to build business and promote going out and frequenting those restaurants. 

Trump pushed the acceleration of vaccines and treatments more than any other president in history. And it's working. 

Deal with it. Take care of yourself like everyone else should and stop posting garbage stats that no one gives a crap about.

No my stats are real.     The point is Briand's stats were the garbage ones (well technically her stats were real, but her conclusions based on them were garbage).

Not saying Briand should necessarily be "canceled," but she either needs to apologize or explain her findings further, because she did a piss poor job in her presentation of doing so.    In fact on her LinkedIn page she even posted a link to the new location of the article, but has not replied to any of those politely asking her to follow up on her analysis.  (I don't blame Gu for any of this, I don't think she took any of Brand's findings out of context, and was really just doing her job as a reporter, plus she's only a student).

If not, I wouldn't be upset if she got canned.   She pretty much tarnished the entire Johns Hopkins name, despite not even being an actual professor.    According to her linkedin she doesn't live in the craphole that is Maryland anyway.   Here's her giving a preview as to what her conclusions were going to be, in July, all the way from Wyoming:

https://kemmerergazette.com/article/letter-to-the-editor-without-risk-that-are-no-rewards

 

[TimmySmith 2,782]

26 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

... she doesn't live in the craphole that is Maryland anyway. 

I'll allow it.

[lod001 1,237]

14 hours ago, TimHauck said:

His source is the same as the author of the webinar - all cause weekly deaths from the CDC, as noted in the graph.   If you don’t know what it shows, then I’m not sure what to tell you (hint:  a lot more people have died so far in 2020 than at this point during the last 6 years).  

Really? Interesting since John's Hopkins just took down an article that said deaths this year are on normal pace. Seems it didn't fit the fear narrative.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,658]

Wow. Even respected institutions like John’s Hopkins are blowing their reps because of TDS. Worlds gone nuts over one guy with limited power. 

[lickin_starfish 1,482]

I'm glad the Democrats want the USA to be governed like Europe. I can't wait to have these progressive Covid policies here in America.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/macron-very-shocked-over-brutal-police-beating-black-man-not-wearing-mask

[TimHauck 1,802]

59 minutes ago, lod001 said:

Really? Interesting since John's Hopkins just took down an article that said deaths this year are on normal pace. Seems it didn't fit the fear narrative.

Follow along buddy.  That’s the same article we’ve been discussing.   “Johns Hopkins” didn’t take it down, their student newspaper did.  And it was an article based on a webinar (which is still up btw) by an assistant director of an economics program that isn’t even a professor.   Her data was “correct,” but her conclusions were not.

[Reality 2,710]

9 hours ago, wiffleball said:

You are really not reading the newspaper are you? The big sheet of paper with words on it?

 

 

Do yourself a favor, leave this site for 5 minutes and actually go and read some stuff?

So, that graph isn't trending down....

Get some sleep man.

[nobody 2,044]

43 minutes ago, Reality said:

So, that graph isn't trending down....

Get some sleep man.

It's definitely trending down.  That's not the point though.  The Johns Hopkins webinar is saying there are no excess deaths.  The graph contradicts that.  That is the point.  It's the only point.  

And again... I don't care if old people die.  Open up everything.  We just can't use shìtty arguments to justify it.

[Reality 2,710]

29 minutes ago, nobody said:

It's definitely trending down.  That's not the point though.  The Johns Hopkins webinar is saying there are no excess deaths.  The graph contradicts that.  That is the point.  It's the only point.  

And again... I don't care if old people die.  Open up everything.  We just can't use shìtty arguments to justify it.

Trending down is also the point, in general. That's what happens when you don't send old infected people back to nursing homes to kill everybody else like happened early on.

[Cdub100 3,384]

18 hours ago, TimHauck said:

 

 

Sad, this graph shows when Democrat governors put sick people in retirement homes instead of using the hospitals Trump set up.

That huge spike are all the people Whitmer, coumo, and the dude in cali killed.

Thanks for sharing.

[wiffleball 4,645]

https://www.livescience.com/icu-capacity-explained.html

 

Here's a pretty good article and it seems to reconcile a lot of the banter around here and in the media. No, ICU they're not designed to be at 100%. And the article explains in common sense terms why is. But, they are supposed to be about 70 or 80%. Which, if you think about it, just makes sense.

 

Just my own two cents. The ICU is calledICU for a reason. Intensive, Labor intensive care.

 

Where you get real economies of scale  is in admissions. In General Admit, you can have more bodies for a single worker then is required for ICU Staffing standards.

I know from relatively recent personal experience I spent like 19 hours in an ICU / ER Unit room - and there were twenty-three other people like me taking up space from those with exigent/ urgent medical needs where we really should have been in a bed upstairs, but they just couldn't turn patients fast enough.

 

Anyway, just FYI.

 

I think in a few years, we're going to have a lot of lessons learned.

 

[TimHauck 1,802]

1 hour ago, Reality said:

Trending down is also the point, in general. That's what happens when you don't send old infected people back to nursing homes to kill everybody else like happened early on.

I mean if you’re going to keep saying it’s “trending down,” if you take out the very last singular data point, which is likely incomplete, it’s not trending down as much.

The democratic governors sending old infected to nursing homes are certainly partially to blame for some of that first hump, but not all of it, and they aren’t to blame for the second one either.

 

[Utilit99 4,099]

6 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

I mean if you’re going to keep saying it’s “trending down,” if you take out the very last singular data point, which is likely incomplete, it’s not trending down as much.

The democratic governors sending old infected to nursing homes are certainly partially to blame for some of that first hump, but not all of it, and they aren’t to blame for the second one either.

 

Yeah. Allowing riots and take overs in their cities had nothing to do with any of it. Because rioters and violent protesters were incapable of spreading the virus.

[TimHauck 1,802]

42 minutes ago, Utilit99 said:

Yeah. Allowing riots and take overs in their cities had nothing to do with any of it. Because rioters and violent protesters were incapable of spreading the virus.

I don’t disagree with this.  But that’s a different argument.  First we all need to agree that there have been a significant number of deaths this year than there otherwise would have been, which according to the author of this webinar and all the people retweeting this article, is not the case.

Then we can get into the cause of these extra deaths.   It’s likely some combination of covid itself, democratic governors and the lockdowns.   How much can be attributed to each will likely be up for debate for years.

One comment on the lockdowns/restrictions though, I personally think their impact is being overstated.  I see some people acting like if there were no restrictions, all bars/restaurants/gyms/movie theaters/etc would be operating as if covid never happened without the restrictions when that’s simply not the case.   Many restaurants that are allowed 50% capacity can’t even fill that.   Many hotels are practically empty despite few actual restrictions on travel.  Because of the virus, a large % of people would have changed their behavior regardless of what their governor did or didn’t do.

Same can be said for suicides, drug overdoses, etc.   Sure, some are likely the result of lockdowns.  But others are likely the result of losing a loved one to the virus, fear of catching it, or just the reality of living with this virus that has changed so many things about people’s lives.

 

[Reality 2,710]

1 hour ago, TimHauck said:

I mean if you’re going to keep saying it’s “trending down,” if you take out the very last singular data point, which is likely incomplete, it’s not trending down as much.

The democratic governors sending old infected to nursing homes are certainly partially to blame for some of that first hump, but not all of it, and they aren’t to blame for the second one either.

 

If you can't tell that the graph is trending down for 2020, there isn't much of a conversation to be had. I'll leave you to it.

[wiffleball 4,645]

4 minutes ago, Reality said:

If you can't tell that the graph is trending down for 2020, there isn't much of a conversation to be had. I'll leave you to it.

I know where I'm at, we basically went up about 500% in eight weeks. Crazy bro. But I also don't think they should include places like jails which have huge infection rates that grow rapidly. Those guys are for all intents and purposes sequestered.

[Reality 2,710]

4 minutes ago, wiffleball said:

I know where I'm at, we basically went up about 500% in eight weeks. Crazy bro. But I also don't think they should include places like jails which have huge infection rates that grow rapidly. Those guys are for all intents and purposes sequestered.

Some really bad decisions were made early on, those folks are now being celebrated. Crazy world we live in.

[TimHauck 1,802]

27 minutes ago, Reality said:

If you can't tell that the graph is trending down for 2020, there isn't much of a conversation to be had. I'll leave you to it.

I said “as much.”  But Is that what you take away from that chart?  Not the huge increase in 2020 compared to all of the last 6 years, which all follow the same pattern except for 2020?

[Reality 2,710]

About 140k of the total deaths are people 75 and over, we know how those folks were treated early on. I'm glad measures have been taken to handle those cases more intelligently. It's obviously reflected in the graph.

[TimHauck 1,802]

2 hours ago, Reality said:

About 140k of the total deaths are people 75 and over, we know how those folks were treated early on. I'm glad measures have been taken to handle those cases more intelligently. It's obviously reflected in the graph.

I do think it will be interesting to see what 2021/2022 look like to see if all these people were gonna die soon anyway (although 2021 could be tricky depending on how many covid deaths continue to occur).  Unfortunately we have to wait 13+ months to find out.

[Strike 3,979]

https://nypost.com/2020/11/28/nyc-bar-in-covid-hotspot-refuses-to-close-after-liquor-license-yanked/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

[Strike 3,979]

https://californiaglobe.com/section-2/is-californias-covid-surge-real/

[Reality 2,710]

36 minutes ago, Strike said:

https://californiaglobe.com/section-2/is-californias-covid-surge-real/

Somebody is about to get fired and this article will be retracted soon.

[drobeski 3,061]

[Hardcore troubadour 12,658]

54 minutes ago, drobeski said:

You gotta be Fockin kidding me.