Johnathan Taylor with the #5 overall pick---is this crazy???

[jtztdm 2]

I play in a 12 team ppr league and rb's get drafted very early and often. I have the number five overall pick and I am considering Taylor as my first pick at #5 overall. He finished last season on fire and really think he will take it to the next level this season. Anyone think this could be a risky decision taking him at 5 overall? Some feedback on this would be appreciated. 

[weepaws 3,420]

At number five in a ppr, I would take the top wr, T Hill. 

Mack isn’t going to be collecting dust just sitting on the bench.  

[jrokh 618]

I like JT more than most but not top 5 like.

[AxeElf 787]

6.40 Jonathan Taylor
Æ™ Rating: Bust
Jonathan Taylor attended Wisconsin, and it's a good rule of thumb to consider all Wisconsin RBs to be detritus.  But in case you still don't understand why Taylor cannot possibly return greater than RB2 performance this year, consider that he is competing with a two-time 1000 yard rusher (Mack) returning to share the backfield duties with him this year on 1st and 2nd down (with 3rd down and passing situations already owned by Nyheim Hines).  And if you STILL think Taylor will continue the eye-popping stats he put up at the end of last year, then I guess you think that the Colts will get to play teams who have given up (Las Vegas, Houston, Jacksonville) every week, like they did when he was putting up those eye-popping stats at the end of last year.  (Unfortunately, the Colts' first three opponents are Seattle, the Rams and Tennessee.)

[polecatt 489]

Johnathan Taylor is one of those guys that will almost certainly go before I would take him.

I'm not saying he's gonna suck, but Marlon Mack is back. I don't see how he doesn't steal a fair share of the work.

Taylor may still be the lead RB, but Mack is too good to just sit.

In a top 5 pick, I want and RB who doesn't have much competition at all for touches

[makindollaz 52]

I’d only consider him at 5 if this is the first year of a new dynasty league.

[tanatastic 2,062]

Risky yes very but crazy no. You can do a lot worse than a young guy behind a great line who showed out last year and has an oft injured Mack behind him. If you believe in him that much don’t hesitate. By years end there will be approximately 5-7 RBs who weren’t ranked in the top 12 end up there, including top 5. He’s not my guy in rnd 1 but there’s def a bull case for him to match the bear.

[MTSkiBum 1,626]

32 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

Risky yes very but crazy no. You can do a lot worse than a young guy behind a great line who showed out last year and has an oft injured Mack behind him. If you believe in him that much don’t hesitate. By years end there will be approximately 5-7 RBs who weren’t ranked in the top 12 end up there, including top 5. He’s not my guy in rnd 1 but there’s def a bull case for him to match the bear.

 

This.

[weepaws 3,420]

Keeper league a top five pick for Taylor wouldn’t be crazy, in a redraft , I would call it crazy. Mack is a good player, and less work could be a benefit for him. 

 

[Ray_T 798]

5 hours ago, polecatt said:

Johnathan Taylor is one of those guys that will almost certainly go before I would take him.

I'm not saying he's gonna suck, but Marlon Mack is back. I don't see how he doesn't steal a fair share of the work.

Taylor may still be the lead RB, but Mack is too good to just sit.

In a top 5 pick, I want and RB who doesn't have much competition at all for touches

I think this really explains it well.   Axe made a good comment about schedule as well earlier.

If I'm drafting top 5 I dont want this many question marks.   I'd pass.

I feel hes a solid player, but the situation is not what it was last year.   That much is clear.  If you stick your head in the sand and pretend it is the same, I guess you go ahead and pick him #5 overall (or sooner)  Just dont count on getting the results that you expect to get with a RB drafted #5 overall.

[TBayXXXVII 2,679]

12 hours ago, jtztdm said:

I play in a 12 team ppr league and rb's get drafted very early and often. I have the number five overall pick and I am considering Taylor as my first pick at #5 overall. He finished last season on fire and really think he will take it to the next level this season. Anyone think this could be a risky decision taking him at 5 overall? Some feedback on this would be appreciated. 

ADP says Taylor isn't likely to fall to you in the second round, so unless you take him #5, you won't get him.  Pretty simple really.  If you think he's going to be a top 5 RB, then take him.  I wouldn't, but that doesn't mean I'm right and you're wrong.

[MissionCoach 4]

You could try to trade back, pick up extra draft picks and still draft Taylor at 8,9,10 probably.  I got lucky and drafted A. Jones at 1.9 and Taylor slid to me at 2.3.  

[weepaws 3,420]

What size league is that? The OP is in a 12 team league , I don’t see Taylor being a second rounder in a 12 team league.  

At five does the OP really need to trade back, no, either the OP takes Taylor to early at that spot, or take someone else more worthy of that spot. 

[touchdowntwitaker 2]

He is def not one of my guys, but I am coming around to him.  My first question - why is everyone so sure Mack is splitting carries?  That's what we think or that's what we know? 

I like how he is losing value because of the Wentz injury.  People do not realize that Eason has a Cannon and is not a bad back-up.  It makes sure the defense wont stack the box if and When Wentz gets hurt.  I even like the third string Texas QB, which is why I'm coming around on Taylor.  I think Mack makes him more valuable because if he get's hurt and you own mack, you are not destroyed like if CMC or Barkley goes down.  

Indi has the best OLIne.  I think you can do a lot worst - Mixon - Worst OL and no real success - pitiful yards per carry, his schedule playing those teams 6 times is brutal and does not ahve success with his division teams.. , Aaron Jones - injury, not huge workload, TD regression?, Dillon, CHUBB - Hunt share, Ekeler - one anomaly season and has never taken a big workload on rush attempts,  Harris - horrible line, Ben arm strength looks bad, and Gibson - check out his carries - he has never carried a big load last year and is a complete guess.  He is not more a sure thing than Carson, Davis, and Henderson,but you have to pay in the early 2nd or a big auction number.

IN today's fantasy and the NFL game, you have to plan for injury.  I like the Taylor pick and make sure you back him up with MAck.    CMC, Cook, Kamara, Henry - then I don't hate him before zeke (has looked slower last two years (all his numbers have regressed consistently last 3) no matter what you think of how things did not go his way last year and his one big year was with an insane offensive line) and Aaron jones for above reasons.

Pull the trigger if you love him. It's not a bad educated guess and INDI is a solid squad.

[jrokh 618]

1 hour ago, touchdowntwitaker said:

My first question - why is everyone so sure Mack is splitting carries? 

I'm not sure anyone is saying they will split. The concern is simply that Mack wasn't around last season and now he is. I would be shocked if Indy didn't ease Mack back in. Taylor will get his 20 touches.

[touchdowntwitaker 2]

Agreed.  He makes $1 million this year. Follow the money.  He is insurance that does not have to play and knows the plays if something happens to Taylor.  Don't over think it.  

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, touchdowntwitaker said:

My first question - why is everyone so sure Mack is splitting carries?  That's what we think or that's what we know?

That's what we know--and now, you know it too!  It may not be a 33/33 split (Hines will get the other 33% on passing downs), but it would be irresponsible of an NFL team to take a two-time 1000 yard rusher out of the game completely.  There is no indication from camp that there will be anything other than a committee approach to the backfield.

Colts Plan to Showcase RBs Jonathan Taylor, Marlon Mack

 

[weepaws 3,420]

I think Taylor and Mack will be the two best players on offense for the Colts, I have no reason to think that both won’t play. 

It gives the Colts their best chance to win games , think they will both have a lot of touches. 

I think it could be a blessing to hold both on the same ff team , but if both play a lot it could also be a real big headache. 

I can see Taylor being a top ten rb based on avg per game once again, but I don’t see him worthy of a top five pick. 

 

[remote controller 143]

yes, very crazy at pick #5

[jtztdm 2]

I am in a 12 team ppr league and I chatted with owner who picks at #7 and he has interest in moving up in the draft. So if I do that trade maybe select Taylor at # 7 overall. I know some say risky but I read up on Mack and to me I don't see him being a factor this year.

[weepaws 3,420]

What did you read that makes you think that? 

[Phil Simms 11 134]

Taylor is going to be a top 5 RB, not worried about Mack at all. Game script will be an issue on occasion and favor Hines if they’re getting blown out. Still I think Taylor is going to have a great year. 

[AxeElf 787]

59 minutes ago, Phil Simms 11 said:

Taylor is going to be a top 5 RB, not worried about Mack at all. Game script will be an issue on occasion and favor Hines if they’re getting blown out. Still I think Taylor is going to have a great year. 

Do you have any evidence to counter the massive case to the contrary, or are you expecting us to draft according to your wishful thinking?

[Phil Simms 11 134]

35 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Do you have any evidence to counter the massive case to the contrary, or are you expecting us to draft according to your wishful thinking?

Just look at how he finished the year, and now he’s playing with a better QB which will open things up. He is also used as a pass catcher despite Hines. 

[jrokh 618]

Other than the top 4 consensus backs what evidence is there that any one else will finish in the top 5? We are all making our best (educated) guesses. Taylor isn’t that outlandish a choice. Wouldn’t be mine but I don’t feel that confident that Zeke or Najee Harris, or Saquon will be top 5 either…

[AxeElf 787]

5 minutes ago, Phil Simms 11 said:

Just look at how he finished the year, and now he’s playing with a better QB which will open things up. He is also used as a pass catcher despite Hines. 

Yes, let's look at how he finished last year.

He played four teams in the last five weeks who had given up (Houston twice, Las Vegas, and Jacksonville).  He went crazy, because they allowed him to go crazy.  They didn't care.  The fifth game, against Pittsburgh?  He had the lowest yardage total of all five, only 74 yards, and zero receptions.

In that stretch of five games, Taylor had 651 (56%) of his 1,169 rushing yards and 8 (67%) of his 12 TDs on the season.

Against defenses like Tennessee and Baltimore, just a couple of games before that stretch, Taylor struggled so mightily that he received only 7 and 6 carries in those games, respectively.

Unfortunately, Taylor not only has Mack to contend with this season, but actual NFL defenses as well.  The Colts' schedule is a murderer's row of last year's top run defenses, beginning with Seattle, the Rams, Tennessee, Miami, Baltimore, and finally a reprieve in Houston, before San Francisco and Tennessee again.

So if Taylor is a RB1 after Week 8, you can talk to me then...  but I'm guessing that everyone who took him in the first round is going to be sorely disappointed.

As far as being used as a pass catcher, meh, 36 last year; he may catch a couple of balls per game, but most of the passing downs are going to Hines.

[AxeElf 787]

1 minute ago, jrokh said:

Other than the top 4 consensus backs what evidence is there that any one else will finish in the top 5?

Come on.  There is evidence supporting about 7 or 8 RBs finishing in the top 5.  I'm not going to type ten pages of information here for you to catch up on it.  Trust me, it exists.

2 minutes ago, jrokh said:

We are all making our best (educated) guesses.

Speak for yourself.  Axe Elf analyzes the evidence and foretells the results.

3 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Taylor isn’t that outlandish a choice. 

Maybe not if you look at the consensus ADP,  but when you look at the evidence, he is.

Great minds don't think alike.  Great minds think divergently.  It's the sheep that all think alike.

4 minutes ago, jrokh said:

I don’t feel that confident that Zeke or Najee Harris, or Saquon will be top 5 either…

Of Zeke, you can be pretty confident.  Saquon is pretty sketchy for top 5.  I would be pretty confident Harris will NOT be top 5, but top 10 is a lot more reasonable.

[jrokh 618]

4 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Come on.  There is evidence supporting about 7 or 8 RBs finishing in the top 5.  I'm not going to type ten pages of information here for you to catch up on it.  Trust me, it exists.

I don’t trust you. Last year you posted a zillion times how Taylor would be a bust based on the evidence that he went to Wisconsin. Your so called evidence is half nonsense half delusion…

[AxeElf 787]

28 minutes ago, jrokh said:

I don’t trust you. Last year you posted a zillion times how Taylor would be a bust based on the evidence that he went to Wisconsin. Your so called evidence is half nonsense half delusion…

And even in the absence of Mack, he WAS a bust, for the most part, considering where he was being drafted.  A couple of weeks before he blew up, he struggled to get 24 carries over a 3 game span against legitimate defenses.  He had three 100 yard games (518 total rush yards, 227 total receiving yards) and 4 TDs in his first ten games.  Then he got to those last five weeks where he faced matador defenses sans Mack.  You want to bank on that trend over the last five games continuing, go ahead.  Axe Elf banks against it.

Being from the land of Montee Ball and Ron Dayne is just further evidence.

[weepaws 3,420]

Taylor’s new season Qb already is having injury problems, I think team will run a lot , and they will use there best offense players. 

Taylor and Mack top that list. Both will play a lot,,I think Taylor will be a frustrating first round pick.  

I hope that everyone that takes in the top five the best, and please if or when I’m wrong let me know, but I don’t have him that high.  I’m even weary of him as a first round pick.  

Thanks b

[TBayXXXVII 2,679]

19 hours ago, touchdowntwitaker said:

Agreed.  He makes $1 million this year. Follow the money.  He is insurance that does not have to play and knows the plays if something happens to Taylor.  Don't over think it.  

At $1M, the money says Mack.  Taylor is making $960k+.

Taylor is on his rookie deal.  Even long term, there's no real money invested in him to worry about.  He was a 2nd round pick and got $4.2M in guaranteed money and $2.6M has already been accounted for.  They can cut him after this season and he'd only be a $1.6M cap hit next year.  That's pennies when you're talking about a $200M+ salary cap. 

This year, Mack has a $2M cap hit (including the signing bonus), Taylor has a $1.78M cap hit (including the signing bonus).

 

Besides, winning always trumps money.  If the Colts go 1-3 in their first 4 games with Taylor getting 20 touches per game and Mack getting 6, but go 3-1 over the next 4 with Taylor getting 15 and Mack getting 11... guess what's going to happen in Weeks 9-12?  I assure you, money won't be on the coach's mind... winning will be.

[TimHauck 3,406]

11 hours ago, AxeElf said:

And even in the absence of Mack, he WAS a bust, for the most part, considering where he was being drafted.  A couple of weeks before he blew up, he struggled to get 24 carries over a 3 game span against legitimate defenses.  He had three 100 yard games (518 total rush yards, 227 total receiving yards) and 4 TDs in his first ten games.  Then he got to those last five weeks where he faced matador defenses sans Mack.  You want to bank on that trend over the last five games continuing, go ahead.  Axe Elf banks against it.

Being from the land of Montee Ball and Ron Dayne is just further evidence.

I think Elf is putting too much stock in the Wisconsin theory, but I do agree with this.

I know some people don't like the "if you take out their best game" argument, but Taylor's best game by far was Week 17 against a 1-14 Jacksonville team which didn't even count in most fantasy leagues.  Take that out and he's barely over 1,200 total yards rushing+receiving with 10 total TD's.  A fine season, but top 5 pick?  No way, especially with Mack back and a worse QB (possibly a much worse QB).

[DocNiner 71]

Early on I was pretty high on Taylor. I think he's talented enough to put up top 5 numbers but now I think there's too many questions to be all in on him at #5. Axe made.me think about my assessment if him. Yes Mack is back but he did suffer a.bad.torn Achilles last year. Is he healed? and how much work will he get? We know Hines is gonna get work and now you throw Mack into the equation  and the Colts rb situation becomes a little more questionable, at least for me. I like the idea of trading back and picking up an extra pick if you want Taylor but there's.no guarantee he'll.be there with where you trade back to. He's a.little bit of a gamble right now for me.but I still.think he'll put up borderline RB1 numbers but a high end RB2.

[jrokh 618]

21 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

I think Elf is putting too much stock in the Wisconsin theory, but I do agree with this.

I know some people don't like the "if you take out their best game" argument, but Taylor's best game by far was Week 17 against a 1-14 Jacksonville team which didn't even count in most fantasy leagues.  Take that out and he's barely over 1,200 total yards rushing+receiving with 10 total TD's.  A fine season, but top 5 pick?  No way, especially with Mack back and a worse QB (possibly a much worse QB).

I am not advocating JT as the 5th pick. I don't even have the slot in my leagues so don't have to make that decision regardless. The point I am making is one can make the case (at least I can) against an RB at 5 except for the consensus top 4 backs. and some have even made it against # 4 (Kamara). So between, in no particular order, Zeke, A. Jones, Barkley Chubb, Taylor, Ekeler and maybe even Najee, you can make a case for OR against any of those guys at 5. If JT, a freakish talent (2nd fastest combine 40 at his weight all-time), is your guy there, Fine. If not also fine. Also you are correct, taking out one game or several games of any player is usually about fitting something to you pre-determined narrative. The Elf has taken that aspect to an artform. It is dumb...

[weepaws 3,420]

I think trading back is a mistake keep the pick and take a deserving player at that pick.  

To much question marks for taking Taylor this high, Ilooks like I’ll own the 11th pick out of 14 teams in nine days, I’m hoping I get T Hill, and heck of Taylor falls to me in the second golden.  

[Ray_T 798]

On 8/19/2021 at 11:42 AM, jrokh said:

I'm not sure anyone is saying they will split. The concern is simply that Mack wasn't around last season and now he is. I would be shocked if Indy didn't ease Mack back in. Taylor will get his 20 touches.

if this is the case, yeah, he will get his touches early in the year.  but Mack will get more touches as the season progresses.

dude is too good to not get any carries.

remember, the year Taylor was drafted a lot were questioning whether he would even be the starter.  then Mack got hurt and the rest was history.

My belief is that the team may try to showcase Mack early to facilitate a trade.  I do think some teams will be interested  and the team could fill a need elsewhere in the lineup.

but that also means less carries for Taylor (at least for a few games)

To that end, I think wed be foolish to think Mack gets no touches.  My guess is that it may be one of those where Taylor gets 2 series for every 1 series for Mack.   If Mack shows well(or Taylor doesnt play like last year) they may move to a committee.

but the bottom line is there is more risk than typical for a player in the first half of round 1 (if you are still thinking of taking him there)

 

[jrokh 618]

48 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

if this is the case, yeah, he will get his touches early in the year.  but Mack will get more touches as the season progresses.

dude is too good to not get any carries.

remember, the year Taylor was drafted a lot were questioning whether he would even be the starter.  then Mack got hurt and the rest was history.

My belief is that the team may try to showcase Mack early to facilitate a trade.  I do think some teams will be interested  and the team could fill a need elsewhere in the lineup.

but that also means less carries for Taylor (at least for a few games)

To that end, I think wed be foolish to think Mack gets no touches.  My guess is that it may be one of those where Taylor gets 2 series for every 1 series for Mack.   If Mack shows well(or Taylor doesnt play like last year) they may move to a committee.

but the bottom line is there is more risk than typical for a player in the first half of round 1 (if you are still thinking of taking him there)

 

Keep in mind that Indy is a run heavy team with a very good Oline. Similar to Cleveland in that respect. There is room for both backs to eat. Mack hasn’t really been much of a pass catcher. So in pass situations JT will get whatever work Hines doesn’t.

[AxeElf 787]

Don't completely overlook the fact that Jordan Wilkins looked just as good as any of their other backs in the first game; he's not totally out of the equation, either.  His role will likely be less than that of the other three (though he is currently listed as the #2 back ahead of Mack on the depth chart), but that's two or three more touches per game that Taylor won't get.

[jrokh 618]

Nah once Mack is up to speed Wilkins will play as much as any teams RB4. Of course once Mack inevitably gets hurt, he will get a few carries then.

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, jrokh said:

Nah once Mack is up to speed Wilkins will play as much as any teams RB4.

Probably more than the teams who have RB4s who suck.