JustinCharge 2,397 Posted January 10, 2022 My system officially has no prediction for this year. There are no super elite teams. When that happens, I tend to pick the healthiest team. However, several teams are pretty healthy this year. So then I default to picking a #1 or #2 seed to win it. 2020: #5 seed beat #1 seed (#5 was very healthy) tam over kan 2019: #2 seed beat #1 seed kan over sfo 2018: #2 seed beat #2 seed nwe over ram 2017: #1 seed beat #1 seed phi over nwe 2016: #1 seed beat #2 seed nwe over atl 2015: #1 seed beat #1 seed den vs car 2014: #1 beat #1 nwe over sea 2013: #1 beat #1 sea over den Titans and Chiefs are healthy in the AFC. The Packers are healthy but the Bucs are NOT. So I'm thinking the champ will be between the Titans (+850), Chiefs (+475) & Packers (+380). Titans would get most of my attention because I'm getting +850 with a healthy #1 seed. That's pretty good. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
posty 2,296 Posted January 10, 2022 at "My system"... 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cmh6476 759 Posted January 10, 2022 Chiefs is the obvious answer Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Horseman 1,522 Posted January 10, 2022 Not much difference between a 2nd or 3rd seed now that the #2 doesn't get a buy. They just end up playing each other the second week in the playoffs. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
porkbutt 864 Posted January 10, 2022 same system that predicted chargers superbowl? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike Isles 583 Posted January 10, 2022 Dude. It’s Black Monday and you start a happy football day thread. Get your own title and be sure “System” is in the subject so we can laugh at you. I mean with you. at you Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DonS 3,074 Posted January 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, porkbutt said: same system that predicted chargers superbowl? C'mon man! This is the same system that declared the Patriots a super elite team. When Patriots lost to Buffalo the system declared it was only because Belichick is a Wiley E. Coyote super genius that decided to play "vanilla" offense in order to then spank them in the playoffs. That same system predicted Belichick would double down by losing to the Dolphins in order to become the #6 seed because they knew Buffalo would become the #3 seed even though they were playing at the same time. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Big Guy 1,400 Posted January 10, 2022 Let's Go COWBOYS!!! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
shorepatrol 1,738 Posted January 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Big Guy said: Let's Go COWBOYS!!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hardcore troubadour 12,718 Posted January 10, 2022 17 minutes ago, Big Guy said: Let's Go COWBOYS!!! Let’s go refs! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DonS 3,074 Posted January 10, 2022 Arizona and LAR got the shaft by playing on Monday. Whichever team wins will be playing on a shorter week in the division round. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hardcore troubadour 12,718 Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, DonS said: Arizona and LAR got the shaft by playing on Monday. Whichever team wins will be playing on a shorter week in the division round. Teams play on Saturday. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DonS 3,074 Posted January 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said: Teams play on Saturday. Fair point. Hopefully NFL doesn't then make LAR/ARI winner play on Saturday next round. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hardcore troubadour 12,718 Posted January 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, DonS said: Fair point. Hopefully NFL doesn't then make LAR/ARI winner play on Saturday next round. That would be wrong, I doubt they would do it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Big Guy 1,400 Posted January 10, 2022 32 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said: Let’s go refs! @$$! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JustinCharge 2,397 Posted January 11, 2022 The Dallas Cowboys defense had a whopping 26 INTs this year. That's the most by ANY playoff team in at least 10 years. (the 2013 super bowl champion Seahawks were the only team with more at 28 INTs). I actually went back and looked at all playoff teams over the past decade that had a defense that racked up 20+ INTs over the course of a season. Almost ALL of them lost their first playoff game. There was around 15 of them. Only like 3 won a playoff game. Only the 2013 Seahawks won the Super Bowl. Going back to the 2000s and many teams had 20+ INTs and they pretty much all would get knocked out. There almost seems like an inverse correlation between playoff success and super high volume of defensive INTs. I guess one way to look at it is if you get super super super super super lucky with INTs and collect 26 of them, your team should absolutely run away with the #1 seed in the conference. If you can't do that, then its very likely those INTs are masking some serious flaws that get exposed in the playoffs. The Cowboys had 26 INTs and only got the #3 seed. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JustinCharge 2,397 Posted January 11, 2022 Teams that have a negative net interception margin (throw more INTs than their defensive collects) never win the super bowl in modern times except the 2015 Broncos. That was that really strange year where Peyton Manning was cooked and threw a bunch of INTs and the defense carried them. Outside of that, it just doesn't happen. The Bengals, Raiders and 49ers all have a negative net interception margin this year. And the Bengals and Raiders play each other so one has to win. And the 49ers play a Cowboys team with a super high number of INTs but one of them has to win too. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hardcore troubadour 12,718 Posted January 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, JustinCharge said: The Dallas Cowboys defense had a whopping 26 INTs this year. That's the most by ANY playoff team in at least 10 years. (the 2013 super bowl champion Seahawks were the only team with more at 28 INTs). I actually went back and looked at all playoff teams over the past decade that had a defense that racked up 20+ INTs over the course of a season. Almost ALL of them lost their first playoff game. There was around 15 of them. Only like 3 won a playoff game. Only the 2013 Seahawks won the Super Bowl. Going back to the 2000s and many teams had 20+ INTs and they pretty much all would get knocked out. There almost seems like an inverse correlation between playoff success and super high volume of defensive INTs. I guess one way to look at it is if you get super super super super super lucky with INTs and collect 26 of them, your team should absolutely run away with the #1 seed in the conference. If you can't do that, then its very likely those INTs are masking some serious flaws that get exposed in the playoffs. The Cowboys had 26 INTs and only got the #3 seed. Helps playing in the NFC East. 12 of those INT’s came against those teams alone. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TimmySmith 2,782 Posted January 11, 2022 14 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said: Helps playing in the NFC East. 12 of those INT’s came against those teams alone. Dak and 3 other guys who should be selling cars. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JustinCharge 2,397 Posted January 11, 2022 I think I can safely eliminate the following teams from winning it: Eagles (yuk), 49ers, Cowboys, Bengals, Raiders, Steelers (no QB), Buccaneers (not healthy) There's 7 left: Patriots, Bills, Chiefs, Titans, Packers, Rams, Cardinals Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TimmySmith 2,782 Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, JustinCharge said: I think I safely eliminate the following teams from winning it: Eagles, 49ers, Cowboys, Bengals, Raiders, Steelers, Buccaneers There's 7 left: Patriots, Bills, Chiefs, Titans, Packers, Rams, Cardinals I'll take the 49ers, Cowboys, Bengals and Bucs over the Titans and Cards. Why isn't Joe Burrow a household name yet? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JustinCharge 2,397 Posted January 11, 2022 Record vs playoff teams: Packers 5-1 Cardinals 5-2 Chiefs 6-3 Titans 4-3 Patriots 2-3 Bills 2-4 Rams 2-5 The Buccaneers won the super bowl last year and went 1-5 vs playoff teams, so this is useless. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JustinCharge 2,397 Posted January 11, 2022 11 minutes ago, TimmySmith said: I'll take the 49ers, Cowboys, Bengals and Bucs over the Titans and Cards. Why isn't Joe Burrow a household name yet? One thing to think about is super bowl champs have been either 1 or 2 seeds for about a decade until the Bucs won it last year. That eliminates everyone but the Titans, Chiefs, Packers and Bucs. And the Bucs are not healthy with their receiving corps wiped out. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MTSkiBum 1,596 Posted January 11, 2022 I will take teams that you do not believe have any chance at 2-1 odds. My 50 verse your hundred. If they do not have a chance it is easy money for you. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JustinCharge 2,397 Posted January 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, MTSkiBum said: I will take teams that you do not believe have any chance at 2-1 odds. My 50 verse your hundred. If they do not have a chance it is easy money for you. I have no confidence in any of these teams. It should be random champ. This would be a horrible year to make a bet. If you could find someone to take a bet like that, maybe I'd jump on your side too haha. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MTSkiBum 1,596 Posted January 11, 2022 11 minutes ago, JustinCharge said: I have no confidence in any of these teams. It should be random champ. This would be a horrible year to make a bet. If you could find someone to take a bet like that, maybe I'd jump on your side too haha. But you just "safely eliminated" half the teams. I do not mind taking the half that you say has no chance of winning. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JustinCharge 2,397 Posted January 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, MTSkiBum said: But you just "safely eliminated" half the teams. I do not mind taking the half that you say has no chance of winning. I said I THINK I can. I'm not sure about it. Now you are starting to come off as a troll lol. Do you work for CNN or something? Just editing out words people say to troll people haha. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MTSkiBum 1,596 Posted January 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, JustinCharge said: I said I THINK I can. I'm not sure about it. Now you are starting to come off as a troll lol. Do you work for CNN or something? Just editing out words people say to troll people haha. I am not trolling, I was being serious with the offer. I reread my posts and I do not think they can be mistaken for trolling. I apologize for the offer of a bet. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
edjr 5,587 Posted January 11, 2022 Same system that has the Chargers the team of the decade? 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JustinCharge 2,397 Posted January 11, 2022 The only thing I got really is the vegas odds for the Titans are very nice for a healthy #1 seed. +850. They are very disrespected for a team that kept winning even after losing Henry. and now Henry is back. But even then, its attractive just because of the odds I'm getting not so much the team itself. The Titans also finished a hair shy of being the #1 run defense. They can run and stop the run. I don't think there is a defense in the AFC that can stop Henry. The best defense is the Bills, but they were not stopping the big runners. Derrick Henry and Johnathan Taylor both ran wild against the Bills, both Bills losses. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
listen2me 23 1,549 Posted January 11, 2022 Justin doesn't like strength of schedule but it is a big deal in the wildcard round. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hardcore troubadour 12,718 Posted January 11, 2022 I can easily see the NFC East teams being one and done. Can’t think of a big win between the two of them. And the Eagles lost to the Giants for gods sake. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cruzer 1,992 Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/10/2022 at 3:18 PM, posty said: at "My system"... I chuckeled at this myself. Who would of thought, a dude 0-897 on calls, had a system. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike Isles 583 Posted January 12, 2022 Change title of the thread dude. You didn’t even capitalize it correctly!! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JustinCharge 2,397 Posted January 15, 2022 Patriots starting CB Jalen Mills is out with covid for the playoff game vs the Bills today. Pretty big loss. LB Matt Judon has been quiet for the last month. Only 1 sack. The Patriots are 8-2 when Judon gets a sack. The Patriots are 9-1 when they score first. LB Jamie Collins might be used as a spy on Josh Allen to stop his scrambling for big yardage. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JustinCharge 2,397 Posted January 15, 2022 Raiders TE Darren Waller had his biggest game of the year against the Bengals in week 11. But he is coming off an injury and clearly didn't look 100% vs the Chargers last week. He hasn't looked 100% in practice this week, either. Josh Jacobs is the man to watch in wild card weekend. The run blocking has improved a lot since November and Jacobs is healthier. The Bengals ran well against the Raiders in week 11 as they keyed on JaMarr Chase. Mixon might have a bigger game today as Darius Philon is out for the playoffs. He is a big run-stuffer for the Raiders and will be missed badly. Derek Carr is 0-5 in game where the temperature at kickoff is 37 degrees or less. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bier Meister 1,517 Posted January 15, 2022 That return inside the 5 could be the play of the game. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cloaca du jour 2,066 Posted January 15, 2022 Ref shenanigans in LV game Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hardcore troubadour 12,718 Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Cloaca du jour said: Ref shenanigans in LV game Jerome Boger. The worst. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RaiderHaters Revenge 3,606 Posted January 15, 2022 Casey Hayward saw something and was trying to call timeout I think what he saw was sh1t I am lined up 1 on 1 vs Chase Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
