This year's sleeper running back is.....

[NPNG 4]

The last 3 years I have auctioned M. Forte, R. Rice, and A. Foster each for less than $10 ($100 cap). I got each of these with help from many on this particular forum. My question is, who will that RB be this year? I think M. Ingram and D. Thomas (Mia) can be taken out of the equation as they will be too well known by the time most drafts/auctions roll around. Some other backs who could possibly fill this role include: Delone Carter (Ind), Roy Helu (Wash), Ryan Williams (Ari), and Mike Leshoure (Det). There might also be others I'm not thinking of right now. What are your thoughts? Thanks in advance.

[giraldi02 474]

1- CJ Spiller. With an average pick of about 80 (which in 12 team leagues is the 6th round), I think you're getting a player that will be more involved in the offense his 2nd year. He got hurt and didn't really get to fully show his skill sets last year, but the potential was clearly there as he had seven different games where he broke a 10+ yard run. He also demonstrated the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.

 

2- Ronnie Brown. He won't be back with the Dolphins, but given the right scenario this guy could be an injury away from retaking a starting role in an NFL offense. His YPC dipped below 4.0 for the first time in his career last year, but the number I enjoyed seeing was 16 games played in. He's going in the 11th round in PPR leagues. Why not?

 

3- Justin Forsett. Let's compare shall we?

 

737 yds rushing, 3.6 YPC, 6 TDs 22 catches for 145 yards (Marshawn Lynch)

523 yds rushing, 4.4 YPC, 2 TDs 33 catches for 252 yards (Justin Forsett)

 

Give Marshawn Lynch the slight advantage in PPR leagues right?

 

75.32 (ADP - Lynch)

226.68 (ADP - Forsett)

 

Nuff said. Last year I advocated taking McFadden when Michael Bush was getting all the hype. Doesn't this sound like a similar situation? Granted McFadden was a more dynamic player in college and had the potential, but in Tom Cable and Darrell Bevell's offense...I want a running back.

[IGotWorms 4,058]

I like Delone Carter because Joseph Addai is getting old and kind of sucks and Indy doesn't really have anyone else. But I don't think he will completely blow up like those other guys you mentioned. He could just be a pleasant late round acquisition.

[prancers 0]

Here are a couple I like, though I'm sure most will probably disagree:

 

1. Cedric Benson (or whoever the Bengals sign)- They are going to run the ball a bunch and the OL has more potential than most realize. The LT Andrew Whitworth is very good. RT Andre Smith has been a bust up to this point due to poor conditioning and injuries. There is some buzz that he has showed up in outstanding shape to camp this week. From a pure talent perspective, he could be one of the best run blockers in the league. The 2 guards and center could end up being weak as pass blockers, but are strong run blockers (recently signed Deuce Lutui should be a big upgrade at LG). Like others mentioned, he probably doesn't have crazy upside, but Benson could be a high level RB2 if things fall correctly.

 

2. Reggie Bush- This is a guy I believe in and I think people forget about his upside in PPR leagues. He has an 88 catch season on his resume and just turned 26. Prior to his injury plagued 2010, he was averaging 17 fantasy points per game for his career (that's a huge number). It's possible he'll be confined to simply a 3rd down back role and have minimal value, but I suspect it'll be closer to 50/50 with Thomas and Bush splitting the touches. If Reggie gets 12 touches a game, 7 carries and 5 receptions, he could put up a 70 or 80 catch season with 1,300 total yards which would guarantee him at least high RB2 PPR numbers. I just "overpaid" to acquire Reggie in a dynasty league trade today.

 

3. Mark Ingram- The signing of Sproles today hurts his value in PPR. However, whoever has the #1 RB role on the Saints the last few years has consistently put up big numbers. It's flown under the radar a bit because one week its Ivory, one week its Bush, the next its Pierre Thomas because all of those guys have had a hard time staying healthy. But that Saints offense is one that in 2009 was top 6 in the league in rushing yards and they've said they want to get back to that. I tend to think Ingram gets the bulk of the carries and ends up with double digit TDs and over 1,000 yards rushing.

[NPNG 4]

Here are a couple I like, though I'm sure most will probably disagree:

 

1. Cedric Benson (or whoever the Bengals sign)- They are going to run the ball a bunch and the OL has more potential than most realize. The LT Andrew Whitworth is very good. RT Andre Smith has been a bust up to this point due to poor conditioning and injuries. There is some buzz that he has showed up in outstanding shape to camp this week. From a pure talent perspective, he could be one of the best run blockers in the league. The 2 guards and center could end up being weak as pass blockers, but are strong run blockers (recently signed Deuce Lutui should be a big upgrade at LG). Like others mentioned, he probably doesn't have crazy upside, but Benson could be a high level RB2 if things fall correctly.

 

2. Reggie Bush- This is a guy I believe in and I think people forget about his upside in PPR leagues. He has an 88 catch season on his resume and just turned 26. Prior to his injury plagued 2010, he was averaging 17 fantasy points per game for his career (that's a huge number). It's possible he'll be confined to simply a 3rd down back role and have minimal value, but I suspect it'll be closer to 50/50 with Thomas and Bush splitting the touches. If Reggie gets 12 touches a game, 7 carries and 5 receptions, he could put up a 70 or 80 catch season with 1,300 total yards which would guarantee him at least high RB2 PPR numbers. I just "overpaid" to acquire Reggie in a dynasty league trade today.

 

3. Mark Ingram- The signing of Sproles today hurts his value in PPR. However, whoever has the #1 RB role on the Saints the last few years has consistently put up big numbers. It's flown under the radar a bit because one week its Ivory, one week its Bush, the next its Pierre Thomas because all of those guys have had a hard time staying healthy. But that Saints offense is one that in 2009 was top 6 in the league in rushing yards and they've said they want to get back to that. I tend to think Ingram gets the bulk of the carries and ends up with double digit TDs and over 1,000 yards rushing.

 

Thanks for the replies. I agree with the Cincinnati situation, but I was hoping they would pick up Jason Snelling. It really looks like Palmer isn't coming back and if they go with Dalton, you'll see a lot of check downs and I don't think Benson is equipped for that. The last couple of years I thought B. Scott would play a bigger role but I don't think their staff sees him as a workhorse.

I also like the Bush numbers but I think he will go for more than I want to pay for him. Too many weapons in New Orleans kept him from his optimal output in my opinion.

I know one of these days a RB is going to take most of the duties in New Orleans and be a fantasy monster, but I have been burned by that situation too many times and Ingram looks like he'll be sharing with P. Thomas and Ivory. I envision them going with the hot hand and Ivory getting most of the goalline work.

[NPNG 4]

1- CJ Spiller. With an average pick of about 80 (which in 12 team leagues is the 6th round), I think you're getting a player that will be more involved in the offense his 2nd year. He got hurt and didn't really get to fully show his skill sets last year, but the potential was clearly there as he had seven different games where he broke a 10+ yard run. He also demonstrated the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.

 

2- Ronnie Brown. He won't be back with the Dolphins, but given the right scenario this guy could be an injury away from retaking a starting role in an NFL offense. His YPC dipped below 4.0 for the first time in his career last year, but the number I enjoyed seeing was 16 games played in. He's going in the 11th round in PPR leagues. Why not?

 

3- Justin Forsett. Let's compare shall we?

 

737 yds rushing, 3.6 YPC, 6 TDs 22 catches for 145 yards (Marshawn Lynch)

523 yds rushing, 4.4 YPC, 2 TDs 33 catches for 252 yards (Justin Forsett)

 

Give Marshawn Lynch the slight advantage in PPR leagues right?

 

75.32 (ADP - Lynch)

226.68 (ADP - Forsett)

 

Nuff said. Last year I advocated taking McFadden when Michael Bush was getting all the hype. Doesn't this sound like a similar situation? Granted McFadden was a more dynamic player in college and had the potential, but in Tom Cable and Darrell Bevell's offense...I want a running back.

 

Where do you see Brown going? I agree with you that he's still got a some tread on the tires but it would have to be an ideal situation. Maybe as the preseason gets going an injury will make him look more appealing.

 

The Forsett numbers are more than intriguing. I also think the lack of a good QB in Seattle raises the stock of whoever plays RB in Seattle.

 

I'm not real big on Spiller. Recent reports have him returning kicks again this year which probably says a little about what they want him to do on offense. Plus, I'm a big Fred Jackson fan. Small town Iowa college and I coached his wife in high school basketball and track. Would love to see Fred go off.

[EyeOfDaTiga 0]

Kieland Williams (RB) Redskins. Dude had Edge talent at LSU, but was always splitting carries with Charles Scott. KW was the better pro prospect, but Scott was the better fit for LSU's offense. Shannahan likes to take overlooked college players and turn them into RB studs. Not saying the dude will go for 1200yards and 10tds. Just saying he has the capability of being an excellent receiver out the back field and given the right opportunity he can be a RB2 late in the season.

[prancers 0]

Thanks for the replies. I agree with the Cincinnati situation, but I was hoping they would pick up Jason Snelling. It really looks like Palmer isn't coming back and if they go with Dalton, you'll see a lot of check downs and I don't think Benson is equipped for that. The last couple of years I thought B. Scott would play a bigger role but I don't think their staff sees him as a workhorse.

I also like the Bush numbers but I think he will go for more than I want to pay for him. Too many weapons in New Orleans kept him from his optimal output in my opinion.

I know one of these days a RB is going to take most of the duties in New Orleans and be a fantasy monster, but I have been burned by that situation too many times and Ingram looks like he'll be sharing with P. Thomas and Ivory. I envision them going with the hot hand and Ivory getting most of the goalline work.

 

Where do you expect Bush to go in PPR drafts? I get the impression that the last few years have so soured the public on him that the thought of him as a potential fantasy impact guy seems insane to a lot of people.

 

I just picked him up in a deep PPR dynasty league for a couple late 2nd round rookie picks and a guy I was about to cut (Danario Alexander) and the reaction from leaguemates was that I got ripped off.

 

I guess it only takes 1 person in a league to draft him high, but based on the message board reactions, etc. it doesn't seem like Reggie is really on anybody's radar as anything more than a late round flier, if that even.

[Cuda1337 1]

Where do you expect Bush to go in PPR drafts? I get the impression that the last few years have so soured the public on him that the thought of him as a potential fantasy impact guy seems insane to a lot of people.

 

I just picked him up in a deep PPR dynasty league for a couple late 2nd round rookie picks and a guy I was about to cut (Danario Alexander) and the reaction from leaguemates was that I got ripped off.

 

I guess it only takes 1 person in a league to draft him high, but based on the message board reactions, etc. it doesn't seem like Reggie is really on anybody's radar as anything more than a late round flier, if that even.

 

 

In a PPR league, there is no way Bush isn't fantasy relevant this season, barring injuries. I see him as having HUGE value if he stays undervalued like he is right now.

[prancers 0]

In a PPR league, there is no way Bush isn't fantasy relevant this season, barring injuries. I see him as having HUGE value if he stays undervalued like he is right now.

 

I completely agree. I guess it will take a while for his value to be established. I think we'll have a lot better idea as to who is a "steal" and who isn't once free agency settles down. My re-draft league drafts pretty late, so it'll be interesting to see what the new post-FA ADPs of these guys are.

 

On the site I use for ADP, Reggie Bush is at #122. Obviously that should rise a bit with him moving to a better situation, but I don't know how much it will improve. He's currently an 11th rounder in a 12 team league. I'm not sure if he rises past the 7th or 8th round. Unless he looks very good in pre-season...

 

Tony Sparano's comments today to the media bode well for him. He said he thinks he can be a 1st and 2nd down ball carrier and not just a 3rd down type back.

[PackYourNut 47]

Here's a tip: BJGE

[Matt Mueller 146]

I like Fred Jackson with lynch out of town for a full season. I'm also intrigued by the Seattle rbs.

 

I'm not sure I see a true forte, rice, foster at this point but if any Freds my man at this point.

[Laurence Maroney's Nuts 2]

Keep an eye on Kevan Barlow, Wali Lundy and Selvin Young...

 

OK, no srsly... if you can predict which RB Shanny might maintain a boner over, go for that guy... Torain, Helu, Keiland.

 

When Torain pulls his vagine, that will leave Keiland and Helu. I'd go with Keiland based on the blind assumption that given that Helu is a rook, he'll have trouble picking up blitzes, etc... then again, the Shanny will probably sign some Joe off the street to run the rock in his ever evolving quest to become FFB's top villain of all time.

 

 

And Bernard Scott in Cinci... though, their backfield situation is in a high state of flux, so he could get buried depending on who they sign...

[IGotWorms 4,058]

Here's a tip: BJGE

 

Shane Vereen and Stephen Ridley not withstanding? My guess is that no New England RB will end up being fantasy relevant this year, though if I had to pick one it would be Vereen.

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

Marshawn Lynch

 

 

Felix Jones in PPR... he did petty well once Garrett took over last year.

[browns16-0 30]

Rashad Jennings. He has decent value even if MJD stays healthy. If MJD does get injured or his knee injury lingers, I think Jennings has low end RB1 potential. Plus he is getting drafted very late in most mocks I have seen and could be a real steal.

[Young_Grasshopper 0]

Not a late round steal, but Moreno is getting WAY undervalued. Ask the Moreno owner in your league last year - there was a solid stretch when he was virtually unbenchable in the middle of the season, and that's getting just 12 carries a game with a bad offense around him and a HORRIBLE defense that meant the Broncos couldn't execute a good running game. Every opponent knew Moreno was one of the few bright spots in the offense, and Moreno still consistently hit over 4 YPC. His receiving numbers were excellent as well.

 

Look, the dude was drafted high coming out of college and is entering his third season. He saw a significant uptick in performance last year versus his first year in the NFL. His new coach loves the running game. McGahee will not take over primary RB duties. Reports put Moreno in excellent shape. The Broncos will be better on defense than last year, meaning more opportunities to feature the running game. I really can see Moreno as a solid RB2 and way better than half the guys he is ranked behind.

[De Novo 0]

1- CJ Spiller. With an average pick of about 80 (which in 12 team leagues is the 6th round), I think you're getting a player that will be more involved in the offense his 2nd year. He got hurt and didn't really get to fully show his skill sets last year, but the potential was clearly there as he had seven different games where he broke a 10+ yard run. He also demonstrated the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.

 

2- Ronnie Brown. He won't be back with the Dolphins, but given the right scenario this guy could be an injury away from retaking a starting role in an NFL offense. His YPC dipped below 4.0 for the first time in his career last year, but the number I enjoyed seeing was 16 games played in. He's going in the 11th round in PPR leagues. Why not?

 

3- Justin Forsett. Let's compare shall we?

 

737 yds rushing, 3.6 YPC, 6 TDs 22 catches for 145 yards (Marshawn Lynch)

523 yds rushing, 4.4 YPC, 2 TDs 33 catches for 252 yards (Justin Forsett)

 

Give Marshawn Lynch the slight advantage in PPR leagues right?

 

75.32 (ADP - Lynch)

226.68 (ADP - Forsett)

 

Nuff said. Last year I advocated taking McFadden when Michael Bush was getting all the hype. Doesn't this sound like a similar situation? Granted McFadden was a more dynamic player in college and had the potential, but in Tom Cable and Darrell Bevell's offense...I want a running back.

Oh god. Whatever you do, don't follow this advice.

[ICEMAN 44]

Shane Vereen and Stephen Ridley not withstanding? My guess is that no New England RB will end up being fantasy relevant this year, though if I had to pick one it would be Vereen.

 

Ditto.

 

One week it will be BJGE, then next it will be Vereen. The week after that all of the Pats RB's will get involved and not one of them will have more than 4 points. The week after that it will be the veteran RB that the Pats haven't even signed yet who will get the majority of the touches. There will be absolutely no consistancy for you to base your weekly start/sit decisions. It's all a situational thing with Belichick.

 

ICEMAN

[Muggleborn 0]

I'm surprised there was no mention of either DeMarco Murray in Dallas with Barber having moved on to Chicago or Ryan Williams in Arizona where the running game has not been up to snuff during the Hightower/Wells regime.

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

I'm surprised there was no mention of either DeMarco Murray in Dallas with Barber having moved on to Chicago or Ryan Williams in Arizona where the running game has not been up to snuff during the Hightower/Wells regime.

 

i recently read that Murray injured his hamstring. Couple that with the time already missed due to the lockout and i think its going to take a while for the rookie to have any impact. I think he will be 3rd on the depth chart in big D.

[MDC 7,401]

A few I like late:

 

James Starks

Tashard Choice

Rasheed Jennings

Beanie Wells

[polecatt 478]

Here's a tip: BJGE

 

I kind of like him too. NE and their fantasy RB production is more a result of not having anyone that good and Belichek making it work. He is good and don't forget when they had Corey Dillon. Not saying he will do that good but he'll be a 1000 yard 8-10 TD guy.

[kutulu 1,676]

I have Keiland in a dynasty league and he showed some flashes in limited work last year, but yesterday I read he is taking reps at fullback early in camp.

 

Per Rotoworld...

 

Keiland Williams is taking reps at fullback early in Redskins camp. Analysis: Williams is a much better blocker than runner, so the apparent position switch makes some sense. In terms of the running back pecking order, he's firmly behind Ryan Torain, Roy Helu and probably Evan Royster

.

[remote controller 143]

I like Delone Carter because Joseph Addai is getting old and kind of sucks and Indy doesn't really have anyone else. But I don't think he will completely blow up like those other guys you mentioned. He could just be a pleasant late round acquisition.

Addai will do fine this year as they pick there shots with him, but Delonne can still achieve double digit TD's. I also feel that way about another rookie named leshoure.

[NPNG 4]

I'm surprised there was no mention of either DeMarco Murray in Dallas with Barber having moved on to Chicago or Ryan Williams in Arizona where the running game has not been up to snuff during the Hightower/Wells regime.

 

What's the story on Williams? I don't know much about him. Is he good enough to take the primary role away from Wells or Hightower? Is he a pass catching RB?

[jgcrawfish 232]

I think I'm shying away from this years crop of rookie RB's because of the abbreviated offseason schedule. The single biggest factor that keeps rooks off the field is blocking, and with so much less time learning playbooks it simply favors veterans who've been there before. I think the rooks don't really start to make their presence felt until the 2nd half of the season and that's too long to wait with them on my roster. I'll probably start playing the WW for ones in the best position, but IMO coaches aren't going to trust these guys just yet.

[swirvenirvin 25]

Here are a couple I like, though I'm sure most will probably disagree:

 

1. Cedric Benson (or whoever the Bengals sign)- They are going to run the ball a bunch and the OL has more potential than most realize. The LT Andrew Whitworth is very good. RT Andre Smith has been a bust up to this point due to poor conditioning and injuries. There is some buzz that he has showed up in outstanding shape to camp this week. From a pure talent perspective, he could be one of the best run blockers in the league. The 2 guards and center could end up being weak as pass blockers, but are strong run blockers (recently signed Deuce Lutui should be a big upgrade at LG). Like others mentioned, he probably doesn't have crazy upside, but Benson could be a high level RB2 if things fall correctly.

 

 

Good write up on the guards and Oline but it's not gonna be Benson that has the good year. He really has only had one good yr right. Plus back to back 300 carry years? Not sure about either of these just off the top of my head. So I guess I would take whoever Cincys backup is gonna be

[R8RMick 242]

I think I'm shying away from this years crop of rookie RB's because of the abbreviated offseason schedule. The single biggest factor that keeps rooks off the field is blocking, and with so much less time learning playbooks it simply favors veterans who've been there before. I think the rooks don't really start to make their presence felt until the 2nd half of the season and that's too long to wait with them on my roster. I'll probably start playing the WW for ones in the best position, but IMO coaches aren't going to trust these guys just yet.

 

 

Excellent take.

[R8RMick 242]

I know this is going to get me laughed at, but if Jason Snelling ends up in the right situation he could be a very deep sleeper. Would've LOVED to see him land in Cincy to replace Ced...

[FeelingMN 273]

I think I'm shying away from this years crop of rookie RB's because of the abbreviated offseason schedule. The single biggest factor that keeps rooks off the field is blocking, and with so much less time learning playbooks it simply favors veterans who've been there before. I think the rooks don't really start to make their presence felt until the 2nd half of the season and that's too long to wait with them on my roster. I'll probably start playing the WW for ones in the best position, but IMO coaches aren't going to trust these guys just yet.

 

[famousb 11]

The real answer is...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tim Tebow. With Orton stuck in DEN, and John Fox as the HC, Tebow's going to be converted to his natural position of FB and he's going to vulture all of the TD plunges and 3rd and forever draws in Fox's ultra-conservative (and boring) offense.

[mobb_deep 920]

I think I'm shying away from this years crop of rookie RB's because of the abbreviated offseason schedule. The single biggest factor that keeps rooks off the field is blocking, and with so much less time learning playbooks it simply favors veterans who've been there before. I think the rooks don't really start to make their presence felt until the 2nd half of the season and that's too long to wait with them on my roster. I'll probably start playing the WW for ones in the best position, but IMO coaches aren't going to trust these guys just yet.

 

good posting.

 

I know this is going to get me laughed at, but if Jason Snelling ends up in the right situation he could be a very deep sleeper. Would've LOVED to see him land in Cincy to replace Ced...

 

This might not be too crazy! Bradshaw and NY are far apart and there's rumblings of Snelling headed to NY.

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/07/31/source-jason-snelling-to-giants-a-definite-possibility/

[Muggleborn 0]

i recently read that Murray injured his hamstring. Couple that with the time already missed due to the lockout and i think its going to take a while for the rookie to have any impact. I think he will be 3rd on the depth chart in big D.

 

Valid concern - From what little I have heard it did not appear the hamstring is a long-term concern but would definitely agree it required monitoring at this point (want to see some preseason play to convince me whether I should be more concerned) - I do not expect him to start the season as the primary back but I do see him eventually sharing carries with Jones this year. I do not believe it will be long before he passes Choice as the #2 option.

[Muggleborn 0]

What's the story on Williams? I don't know much about him. Is he good enough to take the primary role away from Wells or Hightower? Is he a pass catching RB?

 

If he had entered the NFL draft a year earlier he would have been an early pick but he was injured his senior year so his draft value was downgraded as a result. I had him in my top 5 RB's before he decided to return for his sr season and from what I have read it does not appear he is ready to have the injury prone label affixed to him yet.

 

With Hightower now gone I can see a close to even split on carries between him and Wells while both are healthy to keep them fresh. I see him taking all of Hightower's touches rather than an increase for Beanie. I agree Wells has to prove he has more than potential this season so Williams long-term value is pretty nice but in a redraft I would move both into the bye week/injury fill category.

[Fantasy Noob 10]

Seattle homer here so I am more strongly biased than most and I am buying on Lynch. So far got him in the 4th and 6th.

 

For whatever reason the coaches dont like Forsett. The fans up here love him but if you watch carefully he gets knocked down fairly easily and makes his best moves in space, I think he is just a third down back. I think the coaches don't view him as a three down back and like him as a change of pace back. Even if Lynch went down we still have L. Washington so it's not like Forsett automatically would pick up the bulk of the carries.

 

 

Lynch-anything after 4th is a steal in my opinion especially in ppr leagues

Bradshaw-have seen him go as late as the 5th this year because he hasnt signed (its early and this wont last)

Williams-Arizona offense is going to be improved with Kolb, Wells can't stay on the field, this is good value in the 8th and on

Washington-you know 2 of these guys will have a 3-5 week run where they can carry your team, who that is good luck figuring out, but late round flyer on the favorite is pretty cheap gamble, probably have to depend on WW for this situation.

[Kent 228]

Ryan Williams for two really good reasons.

 

1. Tim Hightower is now on my beloved Redskins roster.

 

2. I don't think anyone in Arizona likes Beanie Wells, and Beanie has proven nothing.

[WiljenFC 0]

Ryan Williams for two really good reasons.

 

1. Tim Hightower is now on my beloved Redskins roster.

 

2. I don't think anyone in Arizona likes Beanie Wells, and Beanie has proven nothing.

 

 

3. Williams is more talented and faster than Beanie ever thought about being.

 

 

I think Williams is likely to make Beanie an also ran (pun intended) by mid-season.

[throttlers 0]

Ryan Matthews :ninja: :ninja:

[refacers 0]

Ryan Matthews :ninja: :ninja:

Or Tolbert