Chris Johnson and RB Hold Out History

[envoy9 5]

I've been seeing a lot of Chris Johnson hold out threads. The basic argument falls into 3 camps: 1) He will sign a big deal, and have a huge season; 2) He will sign a big deal, but the lost time in the preseason and lockout will make him a huge injury risk, and 3) He will holdout for at least a number of games, and perhaps a season.

 

So my question is this- does anyone have any data showing what the trend/history has been for RBs who hold out into the preseason? My gut tells me that #3 above is very rare, and that most guys do sign. So the main question is are these guys more likely to have subpar seasons. Thoughts?

[JagFan 100]

I've been seeing a lot of Chris Johnson hold out threads. The basic argument falls into 3 camps: 1) He will sign a big deal, and have a huge season; 2) He will sign a big deal, but the lost time in the preseason and lockout will make him a huge injury risk, and 3) He will holdout for at least a number of games, and perhaps a season.

 

So my question is this- does anyone have any data showing what the trend/history has been for RBs who hold out into the preseason? My gut tells me that #3 above is very rare, and that most guys do sign. So the main question is are these guys more likely to have subpar seasons. Thoughts?

Larry Johnson is the first one to come to mind for me. He held out in 2007 and only played in 8 games that year due to injury. He did have over 400 carries the year before, so I don't think you can look at them the same.

 

The CJ thing really stinks to me. There is no movement at all, new coaching staff, new QB, and all indications are that Ringer looks great. If he is holding out for Manning and Brady money...I don't see it happening.

[steel827 2]

I seem to remember SJAX holding out, then underperformed and got hurt.

[Filthy Fernadez 2,696]

If he needs more cash, he should sell his toofers. Gold at record highs.

[PATSSOX 22]

Ive got 3 drafts next week, one is keeper so that dont count, so where do we draft him??

 

Im doing a mock right now and i picked him at #6. The one holdout RB that comes to mind is SJAX and him getting hurt.

[IAMWood 6]

Ive got 3 drafts next week, one is keeper so that dont count, so where do we draft him??

 

Im doing a mock right now and i picked him at #6. The one holdout RB that comes to mind is SJAX and him getting hurt.

 

#6 is a steal.

 

History shows that they always sign. Emmitt did it after 2 games once, and had a great year.

[skinsrule05 30]

#6 is a steal.

 

History shows that they always sign. Emmitt did it after 2 games once, and had a great year.

What year did Emmitt hold out? If he did miss two games then it must have been 2001 (only time he missed 2 outside of his AZ years). Here is how that year went compared to his other years (again ignoring his AZ years):

 

Yds/carry- 3.9 (2nd lowest of career)

TDs- 3 (lowest of career)

Yds/game- 73 (2nd worst of career)

 

So how did he have a great year? This the exact thing i am worried about w CJ.

[jgcrawfish 232]

Chris Johnson is 1 week away from my DND list...

[Road_Cats 1]

What year did Emmitt hold out? If he did miss two games then it must have been 2001 (only time he missed 2 outside of his AZ years). Here is how that year went compared to his other years (again ignoring his AZ years):

 

Yds/carry- 3.9 (2nd lowest of career)

TDs- 3 (lowest of career)

Yds/game- 73 (2nd worst of career)

 

So how did he have a great year? This the exact thing i am worried about w CJ.

I am afraid you are mistaken Emmitt held out dallas lost the first two games of the season the second one being a close loss buffalo and than they signed him and dallas went on to win the super bowl. i believe the only 0-2 team to do so. With all that being said I usually shy away from anyone holding out late into the preseaon.

[cbfalcon 824]

Emmitt held out and missed the first 2 games in 1993.

 

Then in 14 games he won the rushing title, had 1900 yards total, and 10 TDs.

[dreen626 17]

Emmitt held out and missed the first 2 games in 1993.

 

Then in 14 games he won the rushing title, had 1900 yards total, and 10 TDs.

 

Stud.

[rocco91 0]

Emmitt held out and missed the first 2 games in 1993.

 

Then in 14 games he won the rushing title, had 1900 yards total, and 10 TDs.

 

Emmitt had probably the best offensive line EVER and a Hall of Fame, QB and WR and a GREAT FB....

 

 

I dont think Chris Johnson has any of that and my draft is next WED... I have the #3 pick and I was SO excited that I was going to get him ....now I am probably taking Rice...He might go on to do what Emmitt did but he will be doing it for someone elses team..NOT MINE!!

[shovelheadt 62]

Stud.

 

Yes, 5 of them in front of him.

[NorthernVike 2,080]

Emmitt held out and missed the first 2 games in 1993.

 

Then in 14 games he won the rushing title, had 1900 yards total, and 10 TDs.

Chris Johnson is no Emmitt. HTH

[soopacee 0]

Chris Johnson is no Emmitt. HTH

 

i beg to differ:

 

emmitt smiths first 3 years

yards from scrimmage (1165, 1821, 2048)

 

 

CJ (1488, 2509, 1609)

 

 

 

pretty close there......11, 13, 19 was emmitts total td's those 3 years.....10, 16, 12 is CJ's

 

 

 

 

i understand emmitt went on to do this for years and years to come......but that doesnt mean CJ cant do the same thing, or even more

[RoadLizard 73]

#6 is a steal.

 

History shows that they always sign. Emmitt did it after 2 games once, and had a great year.

 

True - but Emmitt was a focking warrior. CJ is a one-hit wonder at this point who has proven very little regrading longevity and staying power. The kind of money he wants is reserved for the true RB warriors that have done it year in, year out. DeAngelo Williams at least has some more years under his belt and some decent seasons strung together.

 

What a farce...this is the kind of thing that makes NFL contracts worthless. Players can simply not honor the contracts and hold out and teams can just ditch them if they get hurt or whatever. Seems unfair to BOTH sides. Why didnt they iron this out during the negotiations? UGH!

[PATSSOX 22]

True - but Emmitt was a focking warrior. CJ is a one-hit wonder at this point who has proven very little regrading longevity and staying power. The kind of money he wants is reserved for the true RB warriors that have done it year in, year out. DeAngelo Williams at least has some more years under his belt and some decent seasons strung together.

 

What a farce...this is the kind of thing that makes NFL contracts worthless. Players can simply not honor the contracts and hold out and teams can just ditch them if they get hurt or whatever. Seems unfair to BOTH sides. Why didnt they iron this out during the negotiations? UGH!

 

One hit wonder?? seriously

 

Guess you consider last year a bad year? He was 5th in my leagues in scoring and had 1609 total yards with 12 TDs

 

I cant stand players holding out either but there is a reason they do it. NFL contracts are not guaranteed and injuries are very likely. The NFL life of a RB is not very long. So they need to get their money before they can no longer play. Dont see why that is so hard to understand.

[RoadLizard 73]

One hit wonder?? seriously

 

Guess you consider last year a bad year? He was 5th in my leagues in scoring and had 1609 total yards with 12 TDs

 

I cant stand players holding out either but there is a reason they do it. NFL contracts are not guaranteed and injuries are very likely. The NFL life of a RB is not very long. So they need to get their money before they can no longer play. Dont see why that is so hard to understand.

 

Yeah, one monster season - last year. One-hit/One season wonder. Thats exactly what I said and thats what CJ is at this point. OK, his 2009 campaign was solid but not world-beater level, so we can say one and a half hit wonder. 2010 was his only truly monster season.

 

Just as the teams can cut players like that, the players can also NOT honor contracts and play this hold out crap. They always wait for one guy to sign for more money and then its right to the hold-out pile they go. Why even sign contracts? Just have every player be on a pay-per-game deal. That'd save all this crap. This works both ways. Why should the team just hand him the farm when hes one tackel away from being done, or, even worse, he lays back and stops running hard after the deal is signed. Happens all the time.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

True - but Emmitt was a focking warrior. CJ is a one-hit wonder at this point who has proven very little regrading longevity and staying power. The kind of money he wants is reserved for the true RB warriors that have done it year in, year out. DeAngelo Williams at least has some more years under his belt and some decent seasons strung together.

 

What a farce...this is the kind of thing that makes NFL contracts worthless. Players can simply not honor the contracts and hold out and teams can just ditch them if they get hurt or whatever. Seems unfair to BOTH sides. Why didnt they iron this out during the negotiations? UGH!

 

Ok, I'll admit that, as a Titans fan and a CJ owner, he is pissing me off. That said, what you wrote is absurd.

 

Nobody has been a better back over the last three seasons. Nobody. How many games has he missed to injury? Zero (or half of that baltimore playoff game if you prefer). His first three years in the league rank right up there with ANY back in NFL history.

 

This holdout crap is a byproduct of non-guaranteed contracts. I had hoped that the NFL would address this in the new CBA, but no dice.

 

So what is CJ supposed to do... play the next two years for less money than most teams pay their freaking kicker? Then possibly get hurt and have no career? Or be on the definite downside of his career, and get peanuts?

 

And comparing DWill to CJ is a joke. DWill can't carry CJ's jock.

 

This is probably CJ's ONLY chance to get a big contract. He's not a QB or CB that might get two big paydays. By the time this next deal is done, his career is over. He has to get it NOW, or not at all. If I were CJ's buddy, I'd tell im to do the same damn thing.

 

I criticize the hell out of the mickey mouse bullsh!t way the Titans have handled this situation. We all knew this was coming from last year. To hear the Titans tell it, ZERO conversation has taken place. Reinfeld (GM) needs to get his focking ass on a plane and fly to wherever CJ is and get this done, like yesterday.

[thePRO 78]

i beg to differ:

 

emmitt smiths first 3 years

yards from scrimmage (1165, 1821, 2048)

 

 

CJ (1488, 2509, 1609)

 

 

 

pretty close there......11, 13, 19 was emmitts total td's those 3 years.....10, 16, 12 is CJ's

 

 

 

 

i understand emmitt went on to do this for years and years to come......but that doesnt mean CJ cant do the same thing, or even more

 

LMAO, go delete yourself and come back when you learn about football. Comparing CJ to Emmitt Smith.....

[Boilermaker04 11]

i beg to differ:

 

emmitt smiths first 3 years

yards from scrimmage (1165, 1821, 2048)

 

 

CJ (1488, 2509, 1609)

 

 

 

pretty close there......11, 13, 19 was emmitts total td's those 3 years.....10, 16, 12 is CJ's

 

 

 

 

i understand emmitt went on to do this for years and years to come......but that doesnt mean CJ cant do the same thing, or even more

 

Emmitt and Dallas both had motivation to get the deal done in the Super Bowl, which they won.

 

Tennessee will be lucky to be in the wild card race this season.

[soopacee 0]

say what u will, but the numbers dont lie

 

 

buncha 'boys homers lol

[soopacee 0]

Emmitt and Dallas both had motivation to get the deal done in the Super Bowl, which they won.

 

Tennessee will be lucky to be in the wild card race this season.

 

 

 

exactly a better case in point....CJ did what he did with a shitty team hmmm

[soopacee 0]

LMAO, go delete yourself and come back when you learn about football. Comparing CJ to Emmitt Smith.....

 

yeah im dumb....it only took emmitt his 3rd year to do what Cj already did

[PATSSOX 22]

CBS has a good article on this subject. Here is a little section of it.

 

"Additionally, there's some concern that Johnson could come back and incur some sort of minor injury just like seemingly every NFL holdout did before him. Vincent Jackson, he of the 10-game holdout last year, got hurt on his first play back and was useless, save for a huge game against the 49ers. Darrelle Revis also had a hamstring issue when he came back from his holdout last year and missed some time. At running back, both Steven Jackson (2008) and Larry Johnson (2007) had unceremonious returns from their holdouts. Hall of Famer Emmitt Smith pulled off the hold-out-and-crush stunt back in 1993, but no one else has in recent history."

-cbs.com

[shovelheadt 62]

Don't own him, don't follow the Titans. I usually side against the players on these kind of issues, but I'm with CJ on this one. He's been a top 2 RB for the past 3 years..on a crap team. Pay him.

[da_mane_man 1]

get back to the team already, CJ!!!!!

 

he slipped to #7 last night in my draft and i HAD to take him. i was all set on selecting another RB so it was a no brainer. i did draft ringer later though.

 

as far as his health thing is concerned, i don't think holding out will make him more susceptible to injury. he's got a small frame and he's always in incredible shape. i'm sure he's working out on his own and staying fit.

[PATSSOX 22]

get back to the team already, CJ!!!!!

 

he slipped to #7 last night in my draft and i HAD to take him. i was all set on selecting another RB so it was a no brainer. i did draft ringer later though.

 

as far as his health thing is concerned, i don't think holding out will make him more susceptible to injury. he's got a small frame and he's always in incredible shape. i'm sure he's working out on his own and staying fit.

 

Im now pulling for him to hold out CJ was still picked #3 in my draft the other night but the guy who drafted him did not take Ringor??? So i grabbed Ringor and today picked up Harper when waivers were up and he became a free agent:thumbsup:

[Fantasy Noob 10]

Do you think he is worth targeting in trade? What would his approximate worth be anyways?

 

I like the thought of picking him up for a #2RB/#1WR if he is going to miss only 2-3 games and have an unstoppable RB combo. I would be willing to put up with the injury risk, but again what do you all think a fair price would be?

 

I was thinking of offering up something like Mathews/Grant, but chickened out.

[erknjerk 4]

I'm Drafting Ringer as hoping CJ2K missed the season.

[jumbopackage 0]

I hate Emmitt and I hate the Cowboys, but as far as fantasy football is concerned Emmitt was about as consistent as they come for an 11 year stretch. As far as Chris Johnson is concerned, I still wouldn't hesitate drafting him in the top 5. Look to grab his backup though just in case.

[cbfalcon 824]

I hate Emmitt and I hate the Cowboys, but as far as fantasy football is concerned Emmitt was about as consistent as they come for an 11 year stretch. As far as Chris Johnson is concerned, I still wouldn't hesitate drafting him in the top 5. Look to grab his backup though just in case.

 

Excellent first post. Way to make a splash. I'll be watching you and expecting big things.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Chris Johnson announced that he and his agent will meet with Titans management on Wednesday. "To see which way we are going," tweeted Johnson. "Could get better or wors(e)." Profootballtalk expected contract talks to heat up this week, and this is the first positive sign since training camp opened. The Titans have insisted that no offer would be forthcoming until Johnson reports whereas CJ2K has wanted a contract offer as a good-faith measure. He's meeting them more than half-way with a face-to-face discussion. Let's see if they can close the gap this week.

 

take it for what it is worth.

[tanatastic 2,061]

True - but Emmitt was a focking warrior. CJ is a one-hit wonder at this point who has proven very little regrading longevity and staying power. The kind of money he wants is reserved for the true RB warriors that have done it year in, year out. DeAngelo Williams at least has some more years under his belt and some decent seasons strung together.

 

What a farce...this is the kind of thing that makes NFL contracts worthless. Players can simply not honor the contracts and hold out and teams can just ditch them if they get hurt or whatever. Seems unfair to BOTH sides. Why didnt they iron this out during the negotiations? UGH!

 

Ok this debate got a little out of hand here...CJ a one year wonder!???! Hes been a stud since his rookie year. 3 straight years of balling. Laste year was a "down" year for him and he still tore it up and had great stats.

 

Now, I wont even start to compare him to emmitt, that would be silly, but hes off to a good start.

 

Did i see a Deangelo Williams name drop?! in a topic about one year wonders, and Deangelo WASNT listed as one of them?!! Dwill has murdered fantasy teams since his big year 10,000 years ago. Wouldnt start dwill if u paid me.

 

About contracts, it does suck, but CJ is totally in the right place to hold out. He could step on the field and get hurt, career over. But he is one of the best rbs in the league and deserves a chunk of guaranteed money to cover his ass. But he def needs to show hes a team player and they would hav already paid him. At least show up to camp!

[RoadLizard 73]

Ok this debate got a little out of hand here...CJ a one year wonder!???! Hes been a stud since his rookie year. 3 straight years of balling. Laste year was a "down" year for him and he still tore it up and had great stats.

 

Now, I wont even start to compare him to emmitt, that would be silly, but hes off to a good start.

 

Did i see a Deangelo Williams name drop?! in a topic about one year wonders, and Deangelo WASNT listed as one of them?!! Dwill has murdered fantasy teams since his big year 10,000 years ago. Wouldnt start dwill if u paid me.

 

About contracts, it does suck, but CJ is totally in the right place to hold out. He could step on the field and get hurt, career over. But he is one of the best rbs in the league and deserves a chunk of guaranteed money to cover his ass. But he def needs to show hes a team player and they would hav already paid him. At least show up to camp!

 

Everytime we step out of the house we could get struck by lightning too. Im just tired of contracts not being worth the paper they are written on. OK, Ill concede that he aint a one-hit wonder, lets say he has one good CD out with a few solid songs on it. You know how this will go though:

 

1) Postering and holdout will continue

2) He'll sign eventually for some ungodly sum

3) His performance will drop off

4) Torn ACL in week 3

 

So it goes in contract holdout land.

[bigmark3333 11]

Just FYI - from Adam Schefter on Twitter.

 

#1 - "Meeting between Titans and Chris Johnson will not produce a deal today, but it will give the two sides a chance to communicate face to face."

 

#2 - "For now, Titans and CJ2K are not close to a deal and are not expected to be much closer by the end of the day. Stalemate continues."

[polecatt 405]

Similar to LJ and his holdout I remember Jamal Anderson held out in Atlanta and had a season ending injury very early after 400 carries the previous season. That could be about the workload as much as anything or just being unlucky with the injury. If CJ does sign soon and gets in practice for a little bit I wouldn't expect anything but his best.

[DexterMorgan 5]

Titans GM Mike Reinfeldt in statement: "I'm not sure there was any progress made" in meeting with Chris Johnson.

[Fantasy Noob 10]

On the contract thing, they are not guaranteed and the player can be released dropped at any time by management. How is that any different than a player renegotiating a contract when their performance warrants it?

 

At least he had 3 stellar seasons, and he has a smart enough agent to say, your a RB you need to get paid now or it might never happen.

 

This smacks of Vincent Jackson, we wont see him till week 8 if at all this season.

[Mike Nice 40]

Deal will be worked out in next couple days