Projections for Kareem Hunt tonight vs. Patriots

[ggroovy17 0]

What are your projections for Kareem Hunt in tonight's game with the Patriots? I like Kareem Hunt but I am definitely nervous about starting him because of all the unknowns surrounding him........first game in the NFL, bad matchup, and how much time he will split with West and Spiller.

 

My projection:

 

60 yds rushing, 20 yds receiving 0 TD's.

[weepaws 3,425]

56 yards rushing, 5 rec 40 yards and one rec TD = 20 points.

[Captain Goomy Noomy Roo 53]

PAIN

[Maulers1973 117]

56 yards rushing, 5 rec 40 yards and one rec TD = 20 points.

 

I'd like more, but I'd be ok with those numbers.

[seafoam1 3,514]

Im struggling with this one. I currently have Hyde in over him in my PPR.

[mark32esu 18]

I'm starting him, so expect 29 ruyds, 2 rec 19 yds

[Franknbeans 46]

probably sitting him for either Crowell or Abdullah

[neil2222 1]

I am deciding between Hunt, Powell and Montgomery at RB2 in PPR. Leaning Powell but not remotely confident.

[mobb_deep 921]

100 RUSH

5 REC for 60

1 TD

[bandrus1 413]

14 carries 41 yards TD

2 rec 8 yards

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

100 RUSH

5 REC for 60

1 TD

Is this a dream scenario or do you really believe this?

[hoydogg 3]

My thinking is that Bill will try to take away Kelce and/or Hill. Hunt will have opportunities. Just depends on if he can execute or not.

[mobb_deep 921]

Is this a dream scenario or do you really believe this?

 

Don't see why 20-25 carries at a 4-4.2 clip, with a few catches and a TD is that lofty of a projection?

[Drizzay 758]

KC will be down 21 midway through the 2nd quarter and Reid will completely abandon the run. i would have a tough time starting him if it wasn't a PPR league.

[Maulers1973 117]

KC will be down 21 midway through the 2nd quarter and Reid will completely abandon the run. i would have a tough time starting him if it wasn't a PPR league.

 

Chiefs defense is a little better than that.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

 

Don't see why 20-25 carries at a 4-4.2 clip, with a few catches and a TD is that lofty of a projection?

NE D allowed 88 rushing yards per game last year. Home opener on primetime. KC is going to struggle

[cyclone24 1,940]

NE D allowed 88 rushing yards per game last year. Home opener on primetime. KC is going to struggle

And they don't allow rushing touchdowns.....not very many.

 

I sat him for my flex for Kelvin Benjamin and/or Fitz.

[Pheagle 4]

CJ Spiller cut....again...how much does this change things?

[Challenger 72]

CJ Spiller cut....again...how much does this change things?

 

Really dam. I guess it's all Hunt, all he can handle. I am struggle to decide if I want to play Hunt or Cook on one league.

[Borat33 17]

Not expecting much. Hoping he can get like 80 total and a td.

[Ray_T 798]

NE D allowed 88 rushing yards per game last year. Home opener on primetime. KC is going to struggle

I find that the pats dont do as well early in the year.

 

My rationale:

 

Early in the season when there is no film to break down, the pats D does not do as well with new wrinkles added to an offense.

 

I'm predicting a closer game than we'd normally see if this matchup was happening later in the year.

 

Because they dont know what they are getting, I think the pats will not pay as much attention to Hunt.

 

They will focus on shutting down the known weapons in that offense.

 

That would be Kelce and Hill.

 

I think Hunt will have a good game running the ball, but the New England LB's are smaller and quicker, so I expect they will cap his damage in the pass game

 

my prediction:

 

18 carries, 90 yards 1 TD. 5 catches 20 yards

[Brutal Brutus 182]

I really just want to see him be the clear cut best back on the KC roster and the touches to indicate that. My expectations are limited tonight, I just want to see signs that big games are on the horizon.

[Ray_T 798]

I really just want to see him be the clear cut best back on the KC roster and the touches to indicate that. My expectations are limited tonight, I just want to see signs that big games are on the horizon.

I think you will at least see this.

 

if KC falls behind early you can expect a few less carries and maybe more catches.

 

but in the end He will show enough to make you Happy I think.

[cyclone24 1,940]

Well damn it now you guys have me jumping at shadows.

 

In a standard league would you start him over Kelvin Benjamin or Larry Fitzgerald?

[mobb_deep 921]

Well damn it now you guys have me jumping at shadows.

 

In a standard league would you start him over Kelvin Benjamin or Larry Fitzgerald?

 

KB no

Fitz yes

[DankNuggs 305]

120 all purpose yards and a TD

[cyclone24 1,940]

 

KB no

Fitz yes

That's a little surprising given that the game script for Carolina could hurt KB as far as getting a lot of passes. Where Fitzgerald should be in somewhat of a shootout with Detroit.

[shutdown 40]

The last time these two teams played (2015 playoffs), KC RB's (West & Knile Davis) totaled 23 carries for 91 yards and one TD. They added 4 receptions for 28 yards.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if you saw a similar level of productivity tonight. I suppose you can argue that KC's offense is a bit more dynamic with the emergence of Tyreek Hill and you can definitely argue Hunt has more running talent than West.

 

You can also argue for a game script where KC doesn't have the luxury of running the ball 23 times. A gamescript where a RB that can pass block effectively is utilized more.

 

I like Hunt and think he's got good games coming, but he's not going to be a 3 down RB against a Patriots defensive scheme. So if KC can stay close and stay on the ground he can approach 15+ carries, but if NE gets up on them or they can't run effectively I think you'll see as much West on the field as you do Hunt.

 

I'd say 100 total yards is his upside. So basically it's going to take a TD to make him have really good night.

 

I think the low figure is 60 total yards if NE can stuff the early down runs and force Hunt off the field in passing downs.

[mobb_deep 921]

That's a little surprising given that the game script for Carolina could hurt KB as far as getting a lot of passes. Where Fitzgerald should be in somewhat of a shootout with Detroit.

 

It's a standard league, and KB gets way more end zone looks than Fitz. Zona will run the ball down Detroit's throat IMO.

 

-Lions fan

[Skinny_Bastard 159]

Hunt

13 carries

28 yards

 

1 rec

8 yards

 

West

6 carries

48 yards

 

8 rec

68 yards

1 TD

[BuschWack 60]

NE is a bend, but not break defense.

 

Hunt will get his yardage and a few catches... whether or not he scores is anyone's guess.

 

If you're debating whether to start someone over Hunt, you have to ask yourself how likely they will score more than 10-12 points, because IMO that is Hunt's floor. He should be a safe start for at least that barring injury.

[Beyond Chaos 75]

2 fumbles

[cyclone24 1,940]

NE is a bend, but not break defense.

 

Hunt will get his yardage and a few catches... whether or not he scores is anyone's guess.

 

If you're debating whether to start someone over Hunt, you have to ask yourself how likely they will score more than 10-12 points, because IMO that is Hunt's floor. He should be a safe start for at least that barring injury.

There's just a lot going against him. Road game, stingiest def vs backs, first game, bad game script possibility......think I'll sit him. If he goes off....I'm loaded at RB and I'll be happy the rest of the year.

[shutdown 40]

NE is a bend, but not break defense.

 

Hunt will get his yardage and a few catches... whether or not he scores is anyone's guess.

 

If you're debating whether to start someone over Hunt, you have to ask yourself how likely they will score more than 10-12 points, because IMO that is Hunt's floor. He should be a safe start for at least that barring injury.

NE was 8th in the league last year allowing 326 yards per game. Just 4ypg behind #7 Baltimore, who nobody refers to as a bend but don't break defense. The disconnect comes in because they were 1st in point allowed. But 8th in total yards is not exactly a giving defense.

 

TD's are fluky, but I'd say 10 - 12 in PPR is his ceiling unless he scores.

 

Floor is more like 6 if game script goes against KC being able to run effectively on early downs.

[BuschWack 60]

NE was 8th in the league last year allowing 326 yards per game. Just 4ypg behind #7 Baltimore, who nobody refers to as a bend but don't break defense. The disconnect comes in because they were 1st in point allowed. But 8th in total yards is not exactly a giving defense.

 

TD's are fluky, but I'd say 10 - 12 in PPR is his ceiling unless he scores.

 

Floor is more like 6 if game script goes against KC being able to run effectively on early downs.

As a Hunt owner, I'm overly optimistic. I'll admit. Always the glass half full guy. So, I'll agree and go with 6 as his floor. More... and I'll be pleasantly surprised.

 

[polecatt 489]

I expect some what of an RB by committee for KC tonight

Hunt may get the bulk of the touches but I expect the other guys to steal some as well

The Patriots have a good run D so this isn't looking like a huge debut

He'll be a serviceable flex option but not much better

 

55 yards, 3 catches for 25 yards

[shutdown 40]

As a Hunt owner, I'm overly optimistic. I'll admit. Always the glass half full guy. So, I'll agree and go with 6 as his floor. More... and I'll be pleasantly surprised.

 

I get it, i really tried to get him as well but he started going late 2nd early 3rd round in most drafts. I think he'll be a great player this year. Andy Reid RB's have a consistent history and I see the talent, I just think this is a bad game for him, totally due to the fact that his opponent can score a ton of points and force KC away from the run.

[Maulers1973 117]

I expect some what of an RB by committee for KC tonight

Hunt may get the bulk of the touches but I expect the other guys to steal some as well

The Patriots have a good run D so this isn't looking like a huge debut

He'll be a serviceable flex option but not much better

 

55 yards, 3 catches for 25 yards

 

What committee? The only other RB on the roster is West. It's a 50/50 split at worst, but I think Hunt gets about 80% snaps tonight.

 

 

2 fumbles

 

Actually, he is known for not fumbling.

[Ray_T 798]

2 fumbles

thanks for the well thought out and articulated post.

[mobb_deep 921]

 

What committee? The only other RB on the roster is West. It's a 50/50 split at worst, but I think Hunt gets about 80% snaps tonight.

 

 

 

Actually, he is known for not fumbling.

 

Tyreek Hill will be involved in the run game. I believe that actually helps Hunt though.