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tanatastic

My every two years PSA on Matt Ryan. Don’t draft him this year.

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2 years ago, Matt Ryan was coming off his stellar MVP season and being drafted as a top QB. I made a post warning people to not take Ryan and predicted he would plummet back to earth, (blasphemy at the time), which he did in spectacular fashion with a dud season. He then followed that with a great season (last year). You can check the stats, he loves alternating good and bad seasons.
 

Don’t fall for it this year. When you are in those middle rounds and ready to grab that value QB, don’t make it Matty Ice, this is his year off. 

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Matt Ryan fantasy finishes - 

2008: QB15
2009: QB19
2010: QB8
2011: QB8
2012: QB7
2013: QB14
2014: QB7
2015: QB19
2016: QB2
2017: QB15
2018: QB2
2019: ? 

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Qb7 or better. 

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You might be on to something here. But aren't just about all his games in a dome this year? (I really don't know, but I think I heard it somewheres). And the dude does have an amazing indoors record. A fully healthy offense, along with an old/but new again coordinator. 

If there's gonna be a pattern breaker. This might be the one.

I play in a dynasty and contract leagues. So I'm out of the loop on redraft leagues where knowing the ADP is pretty important. What is his? Even a bad year might still be worth it if you're a waiter on the QB position.

 *FYI I own no stock in the ice man. I just like the guy, and trying to take the other side.

 

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If he was on the NY Giants, they'd be willing to keep him around 50 years though.

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I think Ryan is top 10 this year. Ridley, Jones, Sanu, and Hooper will be running all over the field this year. Ryan will be hearing 4 guys at a time yelling, "I'm open, I'm open!!!"

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Just saw that Ridley had a hammy injury.  

Not good news for a speed wr this early.  

 

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9 minutes ago, Kent said:

The analytics here aren’t great.  

It’s just a trend that hurts people every season when they either take him too high or too low. 

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I am too lazy to look it up, but I wonder how Julio's finishes match up to his on a year to year basis.

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2 hours ago, The Bard said:

I am too lazy to look it up, but I wonder how Julio's finishes match up to his on a year to year basis.

Julio has been consistently good and his success is not tied to Ryan’s. It’s a common FF folley to lower a wrs expectations if you have done so for the QB. For example, Julio’s best year, 2015, came in one of Ryan’s awful down seasons (21td 16int). Rodgers had one of his worst seasons and Adams was still top shelf. I would not change Julio’s rank at all. I’d put a pause on Ridley though.

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On 7/25/2019 at 4:36 PM, Kopy said:

You might be on to something here. But aren't just about all his games in a dome this year? (I really don't know, but I think I heard it somewheres). And the dude does have an amazing indoors record. A fully healthy offense, along with an old/but new again coordinator. 

If there's gonna be a pattern breaker. This might be the one.

I play in a dynasty and contract leagues. So I'm out of the loop on redraft leagues where knowing the ADP is pretty important. What is his? Even a bad year might still be worth it if you're a waiter on the QB position.

 *FYI I own no stock in the ice man. I just like the guy, and trying to take the other side.

 

 

This is the key. He has THIRTEEN games indoors including the first NINE games in a row to start the season. Add that to the fact that he's throwing to arguably the best WR in the game in Julio Jones, an up and comer in Calvin Ridley, a reliable veteran in Sanu and a TE who quietly had a good season last year in Hooper. Freeman and Ito Smith can catch the ball out of the backfield. He should push for top 5 this season. 

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On 8/6/2019 at 1:37 PM, The Bard said:

I am too lazy to look it up, but I wonder how Julio's finishes match up to his on a year to year basis.

Julio has remained strong based on his receptions.  If I recall, he had two horrid years in a row strictly looking at td production (still ranked highly for ppr).

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This is the year where you're wrong Tan. Ridley is the key - no one thought he'd break out like he did last year. He's Roddy White Jr & effects the entire offense. Matty Ice should be a top 8qb this year.

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2 hours ago, ralphster said:

This is the year where you're wrong Tan. Ridley is the key - no one thought he'd break out like he did last year. He's Roddy White Jr & effects the entire offense. Matty Ice should be a top 8qb this year.

Love that the previous owner in our keeper left Ridley for me. Thanks dude! 

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On 7/23/2019 at 7:37 PM, tanatastic said:

Prediction, QB13

He finished as the QB 11 and overall was a letdown as I foretold. He actually vastly overperformed on the stat sheet compared to how bad he looked on game days as any of his owners will tell you. Many garbage time BS yards after killing owners for 4qtrs.

Next year when he’s an afterthought in drafts, scoop him up in every league, that will be his “on” year.

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6 hours ago, tanatastic said:

He finished as the QB 11 and overall was a letdown as I foretold. He actually vastly overperformed on the stat sheet compared to how bad he looked on game days as any of his owners will tell you. Many garbage time BS yards after killing owners for 4qtrs.

Next year when he’s an afterthought in drafts, scoop him up in every league, that will be his “on” year.

ok I looked at the fftoday rankings, and he ranked as #6. 

I acknowledge, this may be a ranking for full season while your ranking may only be for up to week 13.

Either way I look and I see a very minimal difference between the #6 ranked QB and the #11 ranked QB so its even possible a different scoring system accounted for the difference I am seeing.

Either way, he is a mid range starting fantasy QB.   on a good year hes a top QB on a bad year hes a bottom end fantasy QB.   When you consider he missed time due to injury, his performance was pretty solid (in my opinion)

I wouldnt have drafted him as top 3, but hes a solid choice when healthy.

 

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56 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

ok I looked at the fftoday rankings, and he ranked as #6. 

I acknowledge, this may be a ranking for full season while your ranking may only be for up to week 13.

Either way I look and I see a very minimal difference between the #6 ranked QB and the #11 ranked QB so its even possible a different scoring system accounted for the difference I am seeing.

Either way, he is a mid range starting fantasy QB.   on a good year hes a top QB on a bad year hes a bottom end fantasy QB.   When you consider he missed time due to injury, his performance was pretty solid (in my opinion)

I wouldnt have drafted him as top 3, but hes a solid choice when healthy.

 

Standard scoring through week 17, the full season. Yes, not many points separate them at all in that general range so it’s negligible, but we work with what we have.

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It didn't help that he missed a game, but as the QB11, he still had more points per game (18.8) than the QB6, Josh Allen (18.6), the QB7, Kyler Murray (18.6), the QB9, Carson Wentz (17.7) and the QB10, Aaron Rodgers (17.6).

This may have been his "off" year, but a QB who puts up almost 19 points a game isn't one I would avoid.

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1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

It didn't help that he missed a game, but as the QB11, he still had more points per game (18.8) than the QB6, Josh Allen (18.6), the QB7, Kyler Murray (18.6), the QB9, Carson Wentz (17.7) and the QB10, Aaron Rodgers (17.6).

This may have been his "off" year, but a QB who puts up almost 19 points a game isn't one I would avoid.

Yeah, I noticed this as well.  

I Like him.  I even picked him in one of my leagues this year.  I just wouldnt go out of my way to pick him in round 1 of a draft (unless its a league where you start 2 QB)

Even then, hes likely a 2nd or 3rd round pick in some formats (depending on rules of course)

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1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

I just wouldnt go out of my way to pick him in round 1 of a draft (unless its a league where you start 2 QB)

Well yeah, of course; NO QB should ever be selected before the double digit rounds.

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Yeah I wouldn’t any Qb in the first nine rounds either. 

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4 hours ago, Ray_T said:

ok I looked at the fftoday rankings, and he ranked as #6. 

I acknowledge, this may be a ranking for full season while your ranking may only be for up to week 13.

Either way I look and I see a very minimal difference between the #6 ranked QB and the #11 ranked QB so its even possible a different scoring system accounted for the difference I am seeing.

Either way, he is a mid range starting fantasy QB.   on a good year hes a top QB on a bad year hes a bottom end fantasy QB.   When you consider he missed time due to injury, his performance was pretty solid (in my opinion)

I wouldnt have drafted him as top 3, but hes a solid choice when healthy.

 

He ranked ninth in avg per game, so he wasn’t quite where I thought he would be, but never ever draft any Qb in the first round, even in a two Qb league. 

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2 hours ago, weepaws said:

He ranked ninth in avg per game, so he wasn’t quite where I thought he would be, but never ever draft any Qb in the first round, even in a two Qb league. 

Depends on the league.

My old 12 team league its a different story because there are not enough QB's and backups to go around, so there is a premium attached to QB's.

In that format he would have likely been a second round pick (maybe third)

Most normal redraft leagues where you draft only one QB, I wouldnt draft him until very late in the draft.

The only one that should have gone early this year (based on previous year's production)would have been Mahomes simply because he appeared to give such a huge advantage at the position.  As it turns out he came back down to earth this year too.  While some would argue that he had a couple games where he was subpar due to injuries to his receivers, I'd agree, but even so, he just didnt produce at the same rate as he did last season.

 

 

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36 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

My old 12 team league its a different story because there are not enough QB's and backups to go around, so there is a premium attached to QB's.

I hate leagues where you have to start 3 QBs.

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7 hours ago, AxeElf said:

I hate leagues where you have to start 3 QBs.

superflex?

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9 hours ago, Ray_T said:

Depends on the league.

My old 12 team league its a different story because there are not enough QB's and backups to go around, so there is a premium attached to QB's.

In that format he would have likely been a second round pick (maybe third)

Most normal redraft leagues where you draft only one QB, I wouldnt draft him until very late in the draft.

The only one that should have gone early this year (based on previous year's production)would have been Mahomes simply because he appeared to give such a huge advantage at the position.  As it turns out he came back down to earth this year too.  While some would argue that he had a couple games where he was subpar due to injuries to his receivers, I'd agree, but even so, he just didnt produce at the same rate as he did last season.

 

 

Wouldn’t draft any Qb before the 10th round or later, last few seasons I’ve been streaming , qbs , tes, Kickers and def. 

And what always happens a good one will get dropped, and then I can scoop and start. 

No need to draft any Qb, not just Ryan before the tenth. 

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27 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

superflex?

The superflex leagues I've been in allow a maximum of 2 QBs.

  • Like 1

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4 hours ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

I went Mahomes/Watson 1st and 2nd

Ouch!

You were probly kicking yourself all year for not drafting some RB/WR talent in the early rounds and picking up Winston and Lamar late.

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7 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Ouch!

You were probly kicking yourself all year for not drafting some RB/WR talent in the early rounds and picking up Winston and Lamar late.

Not really won the champ in that league. 

Finals starting lineup was

mahomes

drake

mack

parker

boyd

Perriman

waller

watson

d freeman

only grabbed perriman off waivers

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4 hours ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

Not really won the champ in that league. 

Yeah, Drake and Perriman bailed you out.

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11 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Yeah, Drake and Perriman bailed you out.

even without those guys, I had D Wash and ARob on the bench along with Deebo and Mostert

 

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