Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
snatchit

Bold Predictions

Recommended Posts

24 minutes ago, jrokh said:

If FF is all luck then a random 12 year old, could join your league and have the same chance of winning as you. Is that really your contention? I’m starting to feel bad for you guys. If I thought I had the same chance of success as spinning a roulette wheel, I wouldn’t play...

There is no way you can say with all honestly that you win your ff league every single season.  

So then you play to compete don’t you? 

I know I do, I do my best to win, but with 13 other very good owners, if luck isn’t on my side, I’m not going to win, everyone pretty much comes to the draft with the same cheat sheet, sure if your playing against a rookie 12 year old child, and your a season ff vet, you’ll have a advantage, but not because of better skill, but simply more knowledge of how ff is played, I would hope you would help the rookie 12 year old to learn how to play ff ,, but I almost forgot whoim posting to, so I guess not, you would want to dominate that child and call it skill. 

Thanks. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

As an example... let's say that any one person on this board went up against 11 "experts" from the fantasy industry in 2 different leagues.  In both leagues, you put in the same requisite work needed to compete... but in one league, you win the championship and in another, you finished dead last.  So, are you "skilled" in only the league you won?  No, you got really lucky in one league and really unlucky in the other.

As I posted earlier if every owner is approximately the same skill level, than luck comes more into play. However, in the above example that is a one season sample size. In both No Limit Hold 'EM and Fantasy Football the larger the sample size the more the Skill comes into play. For example, in most leagues (I assume), its not winner take all. There are cash prizes for most points or best record, 1st 2nd, or even 3rd place. So extrapolated over a 5 or 10 year sample, the owners with the best success rate of 'cashes' are usually the most skilled owners. The same thing holds true in poker tournaments. The best don't measure themselves based on how many times they win the whole thing, which is much more based on luck, but rather their cash %, or top 20 finishes, et. al. In fantasy its the same how many times over a certain number of years were you in the top 3 in total points, or even did you win more money than you put in for league dues...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, weepaws said:

There is no way you can say with all honestly that you win your ff league every single season.  

So then you play to compete don’t you? 

I know I do, I do my best to win, but with 13 other very good owners, if luck isn’t on my side, I’m not going to win, everyone pretty much comes to the draft with the same cheat sheet, sure if your playing against a rookie 12 year old child, and your a season ff vet, you’ll have a advantage, but not because of better skill, but simply more knowledge of how ff is played, I would hope you would help the rookie 12 year old to learn how to play ff ,, but I almost forgot whoim posting to, so I guess not, you would want to dominate that child and call it skill. 

Thanks. 

No, I play to win, but I consider the season a success if I finish in the black, i.e. win more money in prizes than I pay in dues. Knowledge is a part of skill. If FF was all luck as losers often claim, then it shouldn't matter what anyone 'knows'. Does it matter what anyone 'knows about roulette if you put al your money on a single number? That is an example of something that is ALL LUCK. You don't realize it, but you just disproved your own ridiculous theory...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, jrokh said:

As I posted earlier if every owner is approximately the same skill level, than luck comes more into play. However, in the above example that is a one season sample size. In both No Limit Hold 'EM and Fantasy Football the larger the sample size the more the Skill comes into play. For example, in most leagues (I assume), its not winner take all. There are cash prizes for most points or best record, 1st 2nd, or even 3rd place. So extrapolated over a 5 or 10 year sample, the owners with the best success rate of 'cashes' are usually the most skilled owners. The same thing holds true in poker tournaments. The best don't measure themselves based on how many times they win the whole thing, which is much more based on luck, but rather their cash %, or top 20 finishes, et. al. In fantasy its the same how many times over a certain number of years were you in the top 3 in total points, or even did you win more money than you put in for league dues...

Yes, the better your competition, the higher the luck.  People are judged based on the level of competition.  That's why I say "luck" favors all.  If you're a great fantasy player, with great league mates, your draw is the same as everyone else.  One night this week, I'll grab my spreadsheet (yes, I am that nerd - I have to be - I'm the commissioner), that has all of the final standings (and results), and let you know how many time each person made the playoffs, finished top 3 in points, middle 4, and bottom 3.

Sample size?  I can change the number to 20 leagues and not 2, with the same results.  It doesn't change the outcome.  Do you listen to satellite radio?  I listen to the Fantasy Sports channel a lot and these "experts" play in tons of leagues all the time against each other ever year.  Who's more skilled?  I don't think any are.  Whether they did well or not in any one league boils down to... how many of your "dark horses" panned out, how healthy your team was, and how many points your opponent scored against you.  Two of those 3 are pure luck.  The other, is mostly luck with a splash of skill.  Why only a splash?  Because everyone, even these experts, have like 10 or so "dark horses" and you're only going to pick 2 or 3 per league... you mix and match randomly.  So yeah, there's a level of skill based on your success percentage, but hitting the right one or two in that league is mostly luck.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Yes, the better your competition, the higher the luck.  People are judged based on the level of competition.  That's why I say "luck" favors all.  If you're a great fantasy player, with great league mates, your draw is the same as everyone else.  One night this week, I'll grab my spreadsheet (yes, I am that nerd - I have to be - I'm the commissioner), that has all of the final standings (and results), and let you know how many time each person made the playoffs, finished top 3 in points, middle 4, and bottom 3.

Sample size?  I can change the number to 20 leagues and not 2, with the same results.  It doesn't change the outcome.  Do you listen to satellite radio?  I listen to the Fantasy Sports channel a lot and these "experts" play in tons of leagues all the time against each other ever year.  Who's more skilled?  I don't think any are.  Whether they did well or not in any one league boils down to... how many of your "dark horses" panned out, how healthy your team was, and how many points your opponent scored against you.  Two of those 3 are pure luck.  The other, is mostly luck with a splash of skill.  Why only a splash?  Because everyone, even these experts, have like 10 or so "dark horses" and you're only going to pick 2 or 3 per league... you mix and match randomly.  So yeah, there's a level of skill based on your success percentage, but hitting the right one or two in that league is mostly luck.

The "dark horses" I would consider luck as well...  Doing research and spending more time on it isn't a "skill" IMO...  The data is out there for all and just because one person spends only five minutes on it compared to five hours, doesn't make the one spending way too much time on it more "skilled"...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, posty said:

The "dark horses" I would consider luck as well...  Doing research and spending more time on it isn't a "skill" IMO...  The data is out there for all and just because one person spends only five minutes on it compared to five hours, doesn't make the one spending way too much time on it more "skilled"...

That's true, but I was focusing more on the people compiling that info (the experts), not the people like us who use the info.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:

That's true, but I was focusing more on the people compiling that info (the experts), not the people like us who use the info.

Oh I see...  Thanks for clarifying for me...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's a combination of luck and skill.  How much of each, it's impossible to say.  All I know is I've won $ by making it to the SB 8 times in the 20 years I've been in my league (In other words, 40% of the time - I know, I'm so awesome!).  Seriously though, not bragging, bc I'm sure there are many others who have done similar or better.  Just saying if I knew I could go to Vegas and win at roulette 40% of the time I'd be on a plane right now..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Focus...back to the Bold Predictions;

NFL 2020 Season Canceled
Brady Retires
Belichick Fired
Brady New HC Pats

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, RedzoneMonster said:

It's a combination of luck and skill.  How much of each, it's impossible to say.  All I know is I've won $ by making it to the SB 8 times in the 20 years I've been in my league (In other words, 40% of the time - I know, I'm so awesome!).  Seriously though, not bragging, bc I'm sure there are many others who have done similar or better.  Just saying if I knew I could go to Vegas and win at roulette 40% of the time I'd be on a plane right now..

It is... but it's vastly in favor of luck.  Something like 95% luck, 5% skill.  Of course, if you listen to the "experts", they'll tell you it's 85% skill and 15% luck.  Why?  Because they want to make money.  If they tell you it's all luck, you won't pay for their service.  You'll just go out and use ESPN's free stuff.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The bottom line is that people who win regularly at fantasy football and poker are likely to (correctly) view them as games of skill.  Those who don't are likely to have some sour grapes over their own lack of success, and write them off as games of luck.

But whether you see Axe Elf as the most skilled fantasy football player on the planet, or merely the luckiest, there's no dispute in crowning him the best..

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jrokh said:

No, I play to win, but I consider the season a success if I finish in the black, i.e. win more money in prizes than I pay in dues. Knowledge is a part of skill. If FF was all luck as losers often claim, then it shouldn't matter what anyone 'knows'. Does it matter what anyone 'knows about roulette if you put al your money on a single number? That is an example of something that is ALL LUCK. You don't realize it, but you just disproved your own ridiculous theory...

Not at all, you keep playing roulette, that has nothing to do with poker nor ff.  

Roulette is all luck, but like I said , if the owners in a league are of equal wisdom based on ff or the players in a poker game our seasonal players, it’s all luck.  

Roulette as nothing to do with.  Now roofing a house, now that takes a skill, or rebuilding a 401 motor on ones Buick , that takes skill. 

But since you brought roulette into it, ff is just like playing roulette, you make a pick, and hope you getting lucky and that number comes up in roulette or hope you get lucky and those players produce in ff.  

Thanks. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, RedzoneMonster said:

It's a combination of luck and skill.  How much of each, it's impossible to say.  All I know is I've won $ by making it to the SB 8 times in the 20 years I've been in my league (In other words, 40% of the time - I know, I'm so awesome!).  Seriously though, not bragging, bc I'm sure there are many others who have done similar or better.  Just saying if I knew I could go to Vegas and win at roulette 40% of the time I'd be on a plane right now..

If your competitors is full of equal wisdom based on ff knowledge, you’ve been lucky those 40%. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

The bottom line is that people who win regularly at fantasy football and poker are likely to (correctly) view them as games of skill.  Those who don't are likely to have some sour grapes over their own lack of success, and write them off as games of luck.

But whether you see Axe Elf as the most skilled fantasy football player on the planet, or merely the luckiest, there's no dispute in crowning him the best..

Right, so it’s in the eye of the beholder, if you play roulette and win, and your a prideful person, you won because you skillfully picked the right number. 

Thanks. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Chase Edmonds ends up being THE most valuable handcuff pick this year.  Good offense that wants to spread it out while still running the ball, and as a Dolphins fan I have serious concerns about Drake's ability to last an entire season as a lead back.  Drake will be good while in the lineup, but I'm willing to bet Edmonds starts at least 6-7 games this year and does very well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

thanks for all the poker comments and luck.... so irrelevant to the topic

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Darn it , didn’t need for the Bucs to sign McCoy, now it’s a messy wicket. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×