Delta variant more transmissible than chickenpox?

[TimHauck 1,802]

16 hours ago, Casual Observer said:

No, the present isn't close to the winter peak for Ark.  And projections seem to fall off across the board in September.  Quite curious.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/arkansas?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend

 

Did you check the "hospital resource use" tab which is what I was referring to?   "All beds" isn't far off the winter peak.  "ICU beds" is higher than it's ever been.  Cool site though hadn't seen that before, thanks for helping me prove my point!

[Cdub100 3,384]

23 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Did you check the "hospital resource use" tab which is what I was referring to?   "All beds" isn't far off the winter peak.  "ICU beds" is higher than it's ever been.  Cool site though hadn't seen that before, thanks for helping me prove my point!

Since you've made it clear you don't know how vaccines work.

Nor how the human body works.

With this post, it's clear you don't know how hospitals work.

Hospitals are like hotels they want/need max capacity to stay in business. So when you read, "Hospitals nearing capacity" they are normally like that. They are designed and placed to achieve that goal in order to maximize profits. When you go to the ER at a hospital there is always a wait because they are waiting for a bed to open up.

The media isn't "lying" per say, but they are misleading you. They leave out the context that normies like you would need to actually form a correct conclusion.

 

*I'm sure you can find a hospital that is bursting at the seams. You could do the same before COVID too, so I don't want to hear it.

[TimmySmith 2,782]

16 hours ago, Casual Observer said:

No, the present isn't close to the winter peak for Ark.  And projections seem to fall off across the board in September.  Quite curious.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/arkansas?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend

 

It is a cool website that shows what might happen with Universal masking.  Why Universal though?  Why do the vaxxed need masks?   

[TimHauck 1,802]

24 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

 

Hospitals are like hotels they want/need max capacity to stay in business. So when you read, "Hospitals nearing capacity" they are normally like that. They are designed and placed to achieve that goal in order to maximize profits. When you go to the ER at a hospital there is always a wait because they are waiting for a bed to open up.

The media isn't "lying" per say, but they are misleading you. They leave out the context that normies like you would need to actually form a correct conclusion.

I agree.  And I wasn't even really talking about "capacity," I was just talking about the # of people in there.   Isn't the baseline already accounting for "normally being near capacity" though?   So when the number gets higher than the baseline, it means more people are in there than they planned for.

[porkbutt 861]

On 8/2/2021 at 8:17 PM, TimHauck said:

Delta did 

link please?

man for life of me i cant figure out people that believe in killing babies in name of choice and are vaccinated themselves ..why they give a fock about what others do. thats next level hypocritical 

[TimHauck 1,802]

13 minutes ago, porkbutt said:

link please?

man for life of me i cant figure out people that believe in killing babies in name of choice and are vaccinated themselves ..why they give a fock about what others do. thats next level hypocritical 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/coronavirus-how-india-is-doing-now-after-delta-variant-spread.html

The delta variant was first detected in India last October

 

https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-what-do-we-know-about-the-coronavirus-delta-variant/a-57949754

The earliest documented COVID-19 case caused by the delta variant (B.1.617.2) was found in the Indian state of Maharashtra back in October 2020

 

There's apparently also something called "Delta Plus," but I believe it's the regular one that everyone is sh1tting their pants over

[porkbutt 861]

7 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/coronavirus-how-india-is-doing-now-after-delta-variant-spread.html

The delta variant was first detected in India last October

 

https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-what-do-we-know-about-the-coronavirus-delta-variant/a-57949754

The earliest documented COVID-19 case caused by the delta variant (B.1.617.2) was found in the Indian state of Maharashtra back in October 2020

 

There's apparently also something called "Delta Plus," but I believe it's the regular one that everyone is sh1tting their pants over

so it came from india. not from unvaccinated in US. are our borders closed??? lambda came from peru. border jumper?? again are we protecting border??

[TimHauck 1,802]

1 minute ago, porkbutt said:

so it came from india. not from unvaccinated in US. are our borders closed??? lambda came from peru. burder jumper?? again are we protecting border??

Yeah it came from the unvaccinated in India (before the vaccine existed)...

[Casual Observer 597]

9 hours ago, TimHauck said:

Did you check the "hospital resource use" tab which is what I was referring to?   "All beds" isn't far off the winter peak.  "ICU beds" is higher than it's ever been.  Cool site though hadn't seen that before, thanks for helping me prove my point!

They all project this Delta spike will die down in mid September.  There's no bed or ICU usage higher than its ever been anywhere.  This is like Eric Topol stating all new cases are Delta infections among unvaccinated in San Diego on the heels of the P town study that showed most of the Delta variant cases infected vaccinated people.  Delta acts differently in San Diego or is Topol another bullshit peddler?  I think the latter.  Hospital admissions?  5 out of 400 in P Town.  Everywhere else is overrun or soon to be?  I doubt it.  

[KSB2424 3,083]

[porkbutt 861]

13 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Yeah it came from the unvaccinated in India (before the vaccine existed)...

yea. sounds like border problem. shame we have president that doesnt even know where he is

[TimHauck 1,802]

2 minutes ago, porkbutt said:

yea. sounds like border problem. shame we have president that doesnt even know where he is

So you're in favor of lockdowns then?

My point was more in response to Timmy's blatant lie that the "vaccines spawned the variants"

[porkbutt 861]

3 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

So you're in favor of lockdowns then?

My point was more in response to Timmy's blatant lie that the "vaccines spawned the variants"

nope in favor of border protection. should know whats coming in here no? we have illegals coming and going as they please. nothing to do with lockdowns 

[TimHauck 1,802]

11 minutes ago, Casual Observer said:

They all project this Delta spike will die down in mid September.  There's no bed or ICU usage higher than its ever been anywhere.  This is like Eric Topol stating all new cases are Delta infections among unvaccinated in San Diego on the heels of the P town study that showed most of the Delta variant cases infected vaccinated people.  Delta acts differently in San Diego or is Topol another bullshit peddler?  I think the latter.  Hospital admissions?  5 out of 400 in P Town.  Everywhere else is overrun or soon to be?  I doubt it.  

As I already said, Arkansas is seeing peak hospitalizations.

 

 

Most of the people in Ptown that week were vaccinated, that's why most of the cases were vaccinated.  If 100% of a population is vaccinated, 100% of the cases will be vaccinated.   We don't know the exact % of the people there that were vaccinated though, so we don't know the estimate efficacy of the vaccine.  But if 90%+ of the people there were vaccinated, then it was still pretty effective.

Yup, only 5 out of 400 were hospitalized in the Ptown numbers.  But like you said, most of those were vaccinated.  So thanks for agreeing that indicates the vaccine works at preventing hospitalization?  (But I've said before we don't know for sure if they would have been hospitalized without the vaccine, the average age was about 40 so likely not many there that were at super high risk).

[TimHauck 1,802]

4 minutes ago, porkbutt said:

nope in favor of border protection. should know whats coming in here no? we have illegals coming and going as they please. nothing to do with lockdowns 

What do you propose?  Not allowing any foreigners into the country at all even as visitors?

[Hardcore troubadour 12,658]

20 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

What do you propose?  Not allowing any foreigners into the country at all even as visitors?

Maybe test them before they come in? Oh yeah, we do that everywhere but the border, which is where this delta thing likely came from 

[Utilit99 4,099]

23 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

What do you propose?  Not allowing any foreigners into the country at all even as visitors?

Is that what the million people that have crossed the border and are being bussed and flown around the country are telling the border patrol? 

"I, uhh, I'm a visitor! Yeah, that's it, I am here to, uhh, visit, uhhh, the Statue of Liberty, yeah, that's it, the Statue of Liberty!!"

"Ok. go right on through, we'll help you get there safely and then you are on your own though."

[IGotWorms 3,315]

Washington CNN —  

Arkansas Republican Gov. Asa Hutchinson said Tuesday he regrets approving a statewide ban on face mask mandates earlier this year and has called the state Legislature into a special session in an effort to amend the law.

“In hindsight, I wish that had not become law,” Hutchinson said during a news conference. “But it is the law, and the only chance we have is either to amend it or for the courts to say that it has an unconstitutional foundation.”

The governor’s comments – a shift from his earlier defense of the measure – reflect the changing public health landscape across the US brought on by the highly transmissible Delta variant. On Tuesday, for the first time since February, more than 50,000 hospital beds across the country were occupied by Covid-19 patients, according to new data from the US Department of Health and Human Services. That number is more than triple what it was a month ago.
 

 

Good on him for admitting a mistake

[TimmySmith 2,782]

5 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Washington CNN —  

Arkansas Republican Gov. Asa Hutchinson said Tuesday he regrets approving a statewide ban on face mask mandates earlier this year and has called the state Legislature into a special session in an effort to amend the law.

“In hindsight, I wish that had not become law,” Hutchinson said during a news conference. “But it is the law, and the only chance we have is either to amend it or for the courts to say that it has an unconstitutional foundation.”

The governor’s comments – a shift from his earlier defense of the measure – reflect the changing public health landscape across the US brought on by the highly transmissible Delta variant. On Tuesday, for the first time since February, more than 50,000 hospital beds across the country were occupied by Covid-19 patients, according to new data from the US Department of Health and Human Services. That number is more than triple what it was a month ago.
 

 

Good on him for admitting a mistake

Who knew that major spreaders and receivers would be the vaccinated ?  A true comedy, this whole thing.

[Casual Observer 597]

21 hours ago, TimHauck said:

As I already said, Arkansas is seeing peak hospitalizations.

 

 

Most of the people in Ptown that week were vaccinated, that's why most of the cases were vaccinated.  If 100% of a population is vaccinated, 100% of the cases will be vaccinated.   We don't know the exact % of the people there that were vaccinated though, so we don't know the estimate efficacy of the vaccine.  But if 90%+ of the people there were vaccinated, then it was still pretty effective.

Yup, only 5 out of 400 were hospitalized in the Ptown numbers.  But like you said, most of those were vaccinated.  So thanks for agreeing that indicates the vaccine works at preventing hospitalization?  (But I've said before we don't know for sure if they would have been hospitalized without the vaccine, the average age was about 40 so likely not many there that were at super high risk).

Eh, you have an efficacy estimate of the vaccine.  Don't be coy.  It's not that great.  Recall they didn't inform us how many of the 5 hospitalized in P Town were vaccinated.  I could apply local population rates and estimate that 4 out of 5 were vaccinated.  Unvaccinated would still be the superior mode (20% unvaccinated hospitalized v. 30% of the local population unvaccinated).  How many of the Arkansas patients are vaccinated?  They never tell us.

Affirmed that Dr. Topol is a bullshit peddler, though.

[Casual Observer 597]

21 hours ago, TimHauck said:

What do you propose?  Not allowing any foreigners into the country at all even as visitors?

If the situation is as dire as you say, Tim, then yes all foreigners should be banned.

[Fireballer 2,383]

9 minutes ago, Casual Observer said:

If the situation is as dire as you say, Tim, then yes all foreigners should be banned.

I'm not treating it like a crisis, until the ones telling me it's a crisis, are treating it like a crisis.

[Reality 2,710]

2 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

I'm not treating it like a crisis, until the ones telling me it's a crisis, are treating it like a crisis.

Facts.

[Horseman 1,514]

On 8/3/2021 at 10:46 AM, Cdub100 said:

Since you've made it clear you don't know how vaccines work.

Nor how the human body works.

With this post, it's clear you don't know how hospitals work.

Hospitals are like hotels they want/need max capacity to stay in business. So when you read, "Hospitals nearing capacity" they are normally like that. They are designed and placed to achieve that goal in order to maximize profits. When you go to the ER at a hospital there is always a wait because they are waiting for a bed to open up.

The media isn't "lying" per say, but they are misleading you. They leave out the context that normies like you would need to actually form a correct conclusion.

 

*I'm sure you can find a hospital that is bursting at the seams. You could do the same before COVID too, so I don't want to hear it.

And 80%+ in the ICU beds arent there because of covid.  

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

This is what a hospital overflowing past capacity actually looks like... from Cebu, Philippines... people getting oxygen treatment in their cars outside the hospital because they can't get in...

https://ph.news.yahoo.com/cebu-hospitals-overwhelmed-photos-cars-120032716.html

[TimHauck 1,802]

21 hours ago, Utilit99 said:

Is that what the million people that have crossed the border and are being bussed and flown around the country are telling the border patrol? 

"I, uhh, I'm a visitor! Yeah, that's it, I am here to, uhh, visit, uhhh, the Statue of Liberty, yeah, that's it, the Statue of Liberty!!"

"Ok. go right on through, we'll help you get there safely and then you are on your own though."

Well the poster I was responding to was referring to Delta coming from India.  Don’t think there are too many people swimming here from India.

[Utilit99 4,099]

World Population Projections

Year	World Population	Yearly Change
2020	7,794,798,739	1.05 %
2021	7,874,965,825	1.03 %
2022	7,953,952,567	1.00 %
2023	8,031,800,429	0.98 %

We need some heard thinning for sure.

[TimHauck 1,802]

2 hours ago, TimmySmith said:

Who knew that major spreaders and receivers would be the vaccinated ?  A true comedy, this whole thing.

And yet Arkansas only has 36% of its population fully vaccinated, so your statement is statistically unlikely for multiple reasons (in addition to the fact that most data still have the vaccine as 70-90% effective against Delta infection).

But keep on lying Timmy.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

2 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Well the poster I was responding to was referring to Delta coming from India.  Don’t think there are too many people swimming here from India.

It would really be nice if they would draw some distinction between “visitors” though.

Say, a horde of unvaxed,  undocumented Guatemalans with absolutely no means whatsoever to support themselves...

Vs.

My wife who is vaxed,  has been tested 27 times including (hypothetically) 48 hours before our flight, has a valid visa, money in the bank, a history of entering and exiting lawfully, and multiple places to stay if need be.

I'd really like to see my damn family one of these years. 

[TimHauck 1,802]

34 minutes ago, Casual Observer said:

If the situation is as dire as you say, Tim, then yes all foreigners should be banned.

I didn’t say it was a crisis currently.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,658]

1 hour ago, TimHauck said:

Well the poster I was responding to was referring to Delta coming from India.  Don’t think there are too many people swimming here from India.

There are people from all over the world crossing at the southern border. It’s a free for all. You didn’t know that? There’s a very good chance it came for there. India isn’t the only place with the delta. Amd seeing as everyone  coming into the us via the ports is tested, the next likely pace is the border.  So it’s at least second on the list. 

[Pimpadeaux 2,271]

On 8/2/2021 at 10:37 PM, Hardcore troubadour said:

I saw him standing next to Fauci everyday, while Fauci and other scientists talked. He was ignoring them? Need ventilators? You got it. Running out of hospital beds? Here’s a few thousand. Money for PPE?Done. But you think a guy who was against shutting down international travel, and as we speak, is letting people from a Covid hot spot waltz into our country and sending them all over the country is treating it serious. Yeah, you make sense. 

Puppet show. Get with reality that Trump sucked. Worst president ever.

[TimHauck 1,802]

1 minute ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

There are people from all over the world crossing at the southern border. It’s a free for all. You didn’t know that? There’s a very good chance it came for there. India isn’t the only place with the delta. Amd seeing as e regime coming into the us is tested, the next likely pace is the border.  So it’s at least second on the list. 

True.  But the initial question wasn’t how Delta came to the US, it was how it was created.  Timmy claimed it was “from an unvaccinated host.”  Which of course is a lie.  Because Delta existed before the vaccine.

[Fireballer 2,383]

So, how again do we know a person is positive with Delta?

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

12 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

So, how again do we know a person is positive with Delta?

We don't. We're almost two years in and don't seem to have very reliable testing yet. But the vaccine works, sure. 

[Reality 2,710]

Just now, titans&bucs&bearsohmy! said:

We don't. We're almost two years in and don't seem to have very reliable testing yet. But the vaccine works, sure. 

Right, we even have exact percentages of how effective the vaccines are against each variant. But.... Go ahead and mask up at home around your family please...

[Fireballer 2,383]

6 minutes ago, titans&bucs&bearsohmy! said:

We don't. We're almost two years in and don't seem to have very reliable testing yet. But the vaccine works, sure. 

And delta is causing the "spikes", right?

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

Just now, Fireballer said:

And delta is causing the "spikes", right?

Honestly, I don't even give a crap. 

[Hardcore troubadour 12,658]

11 minutes ago, titans&bucs&bearsohmy! said:

Honestly, I don't even give a crap. 

I’m so over this. But in a few weeks I won’t be, because these kunty teachers are going to do it again. 

[TimHauck 1,802]

12 hours ago, Casual Observer said:

Eh, you have an efficacy estimate of the vaccine.  Don't be coy.  It's not that great.  Recall they didn't inform us how many of the 5 hospitalized in P Town were vaccinated.  I could apply local population rates and estimate that 4 out of 5 were vaccinated.  Unvaccinated would still be the superior mode (20% unvaccinated hospitalized v. 30% of the local population unvaccinated).  How many of the Arkansas patients are vaccinated?  They never tell us.

Affirmed that Dr. Topol is a bullshit peddler, though.

Yeah I already gave it in a prior post.  If 90% of the people at the events in Provincetown were vaccinated, rounding up and saying 75% of the cases were vaccinated, would still be a 67% efficacy.  If 95% were vaccinated, that would be 85% efficacy.

First of all I don't think we should even really be looking at the "local population," these cases were largely concentrated among people that attended events "that were marketed towards adult males" and many didn't even live there.   Regardless, where are you even getting 70% of the "local population" was vaccinated?  That's about what MA is as a whole but Provincetown likely much higher than the total state average.  For example -  https://www.npr.org/2021/07/27/1021373047/why-one-of-the-most-vaccinated-places-in-the-u-s-now-has-a-covid-19-spike

"This in a town where so many people have claimed residency since the pandemic that the vaccination rate is 116% of its latest census count."

 

We may not have official data on the % of vaccinated hospitalized in Arkansas, but they only have 37% fully vaccinated and 47% partially vaccinated, so the odds (and all existing data) are largely in favor of them mostly being unvaccinated.   Plus I guess we'll just have to take the word of the doctors saying it as well as the Republican governor that even put a ban on school mask mandates.   Damn liberals...oh wait.