Delta variant more transmissible than chickenpox?

[TimHauck 1,801]

12 hours ago, Fireballer said:

So, how again do we know a person is positive with Delta?

Genomic sequencing.  It's a different test.

[Fireballer 2,383]

So people are getting multiple Covid tests, I assume?  Or just the Delta test?  

[TimHauck 1,801]

1 minute ago, Fireballer said:

So people are getting multiple Covid tests, I assume?  Or just the Delta test?  

No the genomic sequencing is done after the fact.   It's not done on every test, but similar to the "testing positive %," it gives you a sample.

[TimHauck 1,801]

20 hours ago, Casual Observer said:

Eh, you have an efficacy estimate of the vaccine.  Don't be coy.  It's not that great.  Recall they didn't inform us how many of the 5 hospitalized in P Town were vaccinated.  I could apply local population rates and estimate that 4 out of 5 were vaccinated.  Unvaccinated would still be the superior mode (20% unvaccinated hospitalized v. 30% of the local population unvaccinated).  How many of the Arkansas patients are vaccinated?  They never tell us.

Affirmed that Dr. Topol is a bullshit peddler, though.

Eric Topol comin' at ya again (well more specifically john burn murdoch)

I know some may claim the cases are due to "seasonality" (even though the last "seasonality" argument was that summer was supposed to be the low point, but I digress), but the other interesting thing is even on the top row where the cases are still increasing just not as fast, you can see hospitalizations are not increasing at the same rate, which is not the case for the bottom row.

 

 

 

[Djgb13 2,338]

If we are shutting everything down again can we at least start with the southern border? 

[TimHauck 1,801]

6 minutes ago, Djgb13 said:

If we are shutting everything down again can we at least start with the southern border? 

We’re not shutting everything down again though.  I see that’s the new GC lie

[Cdub100 3,384]

2 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

We’re not shutting everything down again though.  I see that’s the new GC lie

It's weird you can say that with such confidence. The federal government is literally threatening shut downs again. 

You can't lie and say it's not happening. Thankful people are pushing back this time.

 

[Djgb13 2,338]

17 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

It's weird you can say that with such confidence. The federal government is literally threatening shut downs again. 

You can't lie and say it's not happening. Thankful people are pushing back this time.

 

I know right? Only liberal hacks like Tim think it’s not happening again when in fact it is. Biden is doing a horrible job and Harris has been ignoring the Sh1t out of the border. So in order to save themselves they’ll close the country down again then blame everything on covid. Unemployment up? Covid and Trumps fault. NOTHING is the lefts fault ever 

[TimHauck 1,801]

36 minutes ago, Djgb13 said:

I know right? Only liberal hacks like Tim think it’s not happening again when in fact it is. Biden is doing a horrible job and Harris has been ignoring the Sh1t out of the border. So in order to save themselves they’ll close the country down again then blame everything on covid. Unemployment up? Covid and Trumps fault. NOTHING is the lefts fault ever 

Well at least you’re just predicting it.   Sure I don’t know 100% for certain what will happen but I’m pretty confident nothing is getting shut down again.

But you’ve got cdub in the AOC thread acting like they’ve already shut stuff down again and then Utilit moving the goalposts and claiming sending out some checks is the same as a shutdown.

[TimHauck 1,801]

New CDC study estimating vaccine effectiveness against infection in Mesa County AZ which was primarily Delta at 78%

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e2.htm?s_cid=mm7032e2_w

[porkbutt 861]

is this dude a quack?

 

[Fireballer 2,383]

On 8/7/2021 at 7:35 AM, TimHauck said:

effectiveness against infection in Mesa County AZ which was primarily Delta at 78%

Is that really what it says?  Did you leave a word out?

 

 

[edjr 5,567]

On 8/5/2021 at 7:57 PM, Cdub100 said:

It's weird you can say that with such confidence. The federal government is literally threatening shut downs again. 

You can't lie and say it's not happening. Thankful people are pushing back this time.

 

Nah. Gubnahs know they can't do it again. Even here in MA, the gubnah has said as much. Maybe some states, who knows. Not here though

[Hardcore troubadour 12,657]

28 minutes ago, porkbutt said:

is this dude a quack?

 

I’m starting to regret getting the vaccination.  But I’m not nearly as stupid as those who had Covid and then got it. I understand that much. 

[TimHauck 1,801]

27 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

Is that really what it says?  Did you leave a word out?

 

 

Apologies...symptomatic infection.  Do you think it goes from 78% down to 0% if asymptomatic is included?  That's what you were claiming in the other thread...

[Baker Boy 1,485]

On 8/5/2021 at 7:03 AM, TimHauck said:

Yeah I already gave it in a prior post.  If 90% of the people at the events in Provincetown were vaccinated, rounding up and saying 75% of the cases were vaccinated, would still be a 67% efficacy.  If 95% were vaccinated, that would be 85% efficacy.

First of all I don't think we should even really be looking at the "local population," these cases were largely concentrated among people that attended events "that were marketed towards adult males" and many didn't even live there.   Regardless, where are you even getting 70% of the "local population" was vaccinated?  That's about what MA is as a whole but Provincetown likely much higher than the total state average.  For example -  https://www.npr.org/2021/07/27/1021373047/why-one-of-the-most-vaccinated-places-in-the-u-s-now-has-a-covid-19-spike

"This in a town where so many people have claimed residency since the pandemic that the vaccination rate is 116% of its latest census count."

 

We may not have official data on the % of vaccinated hospitalized in Arkansas, but they only have 37% fully vaccinated and 47% partially vaccinated, so the odds (and all existing data) are largely in favor of them mostly being unvaccinated.   Plus I guess we'll just have to take the word of the doctors saying it as well as the Republican governor that even put a ban on school mask mandates.   Damn liberals...oh wait.

 

 

It looks like it is time to control our border. Until they do I will not worry about Covid. 

[Fireballer 2,383]

50 minutes ago, Baker Boy said:

It looks like it is time to control our border. Until they do I will not worry about Covid. 

But, but, but...

Some of these fukin responses

 

[Hawkeye21 1,855]

2 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

I’m starting to regret getting the vaccination.  But I’m not nearly as stupid as those who had Covid and then got it. I understand that much. 

My parents really want me to get the vaccine.  They say they're concerned but I really don't want to get it since I've already had COVID.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,657]

28 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

My parents really want me to get the vaccine.  They say they're concerned but I really don't want to get it since I've already had COVID.

Smart

[Casual Observer 597]

On 8/5/2021 at 5:44 PM, TimHauck said:

Eric Topol comin' at ya again (well more specifically john burn murdoch)

I know some may claim the cases are due to "seasonality" (even though the last "seasonality" argument was that summer was supposed to be the low point, but I digress), but the other interesting thing is even on the top row where the cases are still increasing just not as fast, you can see hospitalizations are not increasing at the same rate, which is not the case for the bottom row.

 

 

 

He's still a bullshit peddler.  From Scotland:

Because if we go back to their previous Covid-19 Statistical Report published on the 21st July we can use the numbers to work out the vaccination status of the people allegedly dying due to Covid-19.

Table 17 of the 21st July report shows deaths due to Covid-19 by vaccination status between 29th December 2020, and 8th July 2021, just two days after alleged Covid-19 deaths have begun to rise again in Scotland. The table again shows the majority are unvaccinated, but we’ve already proven this is a deception.

As of the 8th July, 2,962 deaths were in the unvaccinated population. As of the 15th July, 2,967 deaths were in the unvaccinated population. This is an increase of 5.

As of the 8th July, 257 deaths were people who’d had just one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, however they may have had two doses due to PHS adding them to the one dose figures if their second dose was less than 14 days prior to their death. As of the 15th July, 262 people who’d had just one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine had died of Covid-19. This is an increase of 5.

As of the 8th July, 64 deaths were in the fully vaccinated population. As of the 15th July, 92 deaths were in the fully vaccinated population. This is an increase of 28.

This means that people who’ve been vaccinated against Covid-19 account for 87% of the deaths in the third wave of deaths in Scotland that have just begun. The fully vaccinated account for 74% of the deaths that have only just begun to occur again, those who’d had a single dose account for 13% of the deaths, and the unvaccinated account for just 13% of the deaths.

This is despite the fact the fully vaccinated account for just 23% of the cases seen in the previous four weeks.

By unpicking the data that Public Health Scotland have cleverly attempted to hide we have proven that you are more likely to be hospitalised and more likely to die if you are infected with Covid-19 after being vaccinated.

 

Does the Delta variant behave differently in Scotland, too?  It looks as though vaccination confers no benefit over unvaccinated.

[TimHauck 1,801]

1 hour ago, Casual Observer said:

He's still a bullshit peddler.  From Scotland:

Because if we go back to their previous Covid-19 Statistical Report published on the 21st July we can use the numbers to work out the vaccination status of the people allegedly dying due to Covid-19.

Table 17 of the 21st July report shows deaths due to Covid-19 by vaccination status between 29th December 2020, and 8th July 2021, just two days after alleged Covid-19 deaths have begun to rise again in Scotland. The table again shows the majority are unvaccinated, but we’ve already proven this is a deception.

As of the 8th July, 2,962 deaths were in the unvaccinated population. As of the 15th July, 2,967 deaths were in the unvaccinated population. This is an increase of 5.

As of the 8th July, 257 deaths were people who’d had just one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, however they may have had two doses due to PHS adding them to the one dose figures if their second dose was less than 14 days prior to their death. As of the 15th July, 262 people who’d had just one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine had died of Covid-19. This is an increase of 5.

As of the 8th July, 64 deaths were in the fully vaccinated population. As of the 15th July, 92 deaths were in the fully vaccinated population. This is an increase of 28.

This means that people who’ve been vaccinated against Covid-19 account for 87% of the deaths in the third wave of deaths in Scotland that have just begun. The fully vaccinated account for 74% of the deaths that have only just begun to occur again, those who’d had a single dose account for 13% of the deaths, and the unvaccinated account for just 13% of the deaths.

This is despite the fact the fully vaccinated account for just 23% of the cases seen in the previous four weeks.

By unpicking the data that Public Health Scotland have cleverly attempted to hide we have proven that you are more likely to be hospitalised and more likely to die if you are infected with Covid-19 after being vaccinated.

 

Does the Delta variant behave differently in Scotland, too?  It looks as though vaccination confers no benefit over unvaccinated.

Are you plagiarizing something here?

[Reality 2,710]

7 hours ago, porkbutt said:

is this dude a quack?

 

Damn.

[TimHauck 1,801]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Have you guys seen this yet?

 

He’s wrong about only unvaccinated NHL players having mumps symptoms in 2014 - https://www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/nhl/2014/12/12/7383509/sidney-crosby-mumps-face-swelling-penguins

Besides, a small outbreak 7 years ago is supposed to be evidence that vaccines don’t work?

We’ve also discussed the flaws in the Provincetown “study” across multiple threads.

And because he’s treated 15 covid patients that didn’t die, he’s an expert on covid treatment?  The death rate is less than 1% remember...

[TimHauck 1,801]

3 hours ago, TimHauck said:

Are you plagiarizing something here?

Found it - https://dailyexpose.co.uk/2021/07/29/87-percent-covid-deaths-are-vaccinated-people/comment-page-1/#comments

Here are the 2 reports from Public Health Scotland

through 7/8 (deaths table page 35) - https://publichealthscotland.scot/media/8500/21-07-21-covid19-publication_report.pdf

through 7/15 (deaths table page 41) - https://publichealthscotland.scot/media/8568/21-07-28-covid19-publication_report.pdf

All of the vaccinated deaths that occurred between 7/8-7/15 were in ages 50 or over. 

92.6% of people aged 50-55 in Scotland are fully vaccinated, 3.9% are partially vaccinated and 3.5% are not vaccinated.  All ages 55+ are greater than 95% fully vaccinated - 

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/phs.covid.19/viz/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

Let’s be conservative and call it 95% fully vaccinated and 2.5% unvaccinated 

5 unvaccinated deaths / 25 people (again denominator doesn’t matter it just has to be the accurate %) = 20.0%

28 vaccinated deaths / 950 people = 2.9%

(20% - 2.9%) / 20% = 85.5% effective against death based on just this 1 week of data.  And again this is on the low end since all ages 55+ are 98% fully vaccinated, and only 3 of those 28 vaccinated deaths were even in the 50-59 age group (and for all we know they could have been 55 or over)

Next question?

[Hardcore troubadour 12,657]

Fauci was very critical of the motorcycle rally in Sturgis. 

[Hawkeye21 1,855]

Here's a rebuttal to the Mt. Vernon video.  Who's correct?

 

[Alias Detective 1,179]

1. MOST particles don’t means some particles DO go through masks.  Dr. Wins

2. Dr wins and other guy agrees

3. Vaccines change nothing. - why outbreak in summer?  Answer, because people go inside because of being hot.  Lol -  Dr. Wins again

4.  I quit after 3.  
 

Vernon Dr. wins in a landslide.

[Alias Detective 1,179]

53 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Here's a rebuttal to the Mt. Vernon video.  Who's correct?

 

See above

[TimHauck 1,801]

6 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

1. MOST particles don’t means some particles DO go through masks.  Dr. Wins

2. Dr wins and other guy agrees

3. Vaccines change nothing. - why outbreak in summer?  Answer, because people go inside because of being hot.  Lol -  Dr. Wins again

4.  I quit after 3.  
 

Vernon Dr. wins in a landslide.

You realize it's hot in the summer in Maryland, Virginia, Pennsylvania, NJ, etc too right?

[TimmySmith 2,782]

Has anyone here said that old people and fatties shouldn't get the vaccine? 

[Alias Detective 1,179]

2 hours ago, TimHauck said:

You realize it's hot in the summer in Maryland, Virginia, Pennsylvania, NJ, etc too right?

yes, i live in pa

[TimHauck 1,801]

2 hours ago, TimmySmith said:

Has anyone here said that old people and fatties shouldn't get the vaccine? 

Lod001 for sure

[TimHauck 1,801]

On 8/10/2021 at 9:46 AM, Alias Detective said:

1. MOST particles don’t means some particles DO go through masks.  Dr. Wins

2. Dr wins and other guy agrees

3. Vaccines change nothing. - why outbreak in summer?  Answer, because people go inside because of being hot.  Lol -  Dr. Wins again

4.  I quit after 3.  
 

Vernon Dr. wins in a landslide.

You're wrong on # 3.   The "other guy" is a doctor too btw.   The Mt. Vernon guy's claim was the vaccine was causing the summer outbreak, not from people going inside.    The "other guy's" (correct) point was there was an outbreak last summer too, and also reiterating the fact that the overwhelming majority of people getting seriously ill are unvaccinated.

Then "the other guy" agreed with my point about Mt. Vernon guy's claim about covid treatment based on 15 patients.

[Gepetto 988]

On 8/9/2021 at 1:12 PM, Casual Observer said:

He's still a bullshit peddler.  From Scotland:

Because if we go back to their previous Covid-19 Statistical Report published on the 21st July we can use the numbers to work out the vaccination status of the people allegedly dying due to Covid-19.

Table 17 of the 21st July report shows deaths due to Covid-19 by vaccination status between 29th December 2020, and 8th July 2021, just two days after alleged Covid-19 deaths have begun to rise again in Scotland. The table again shows the majority are unvaccinated, but we’ve already proven this is a deception.

As of the 8th July, 2,962 deaths were in the unvaccinated population. As of the 15th July, 2,967 deaths were in the unvaccinated population. This is an increase of 5.

As of the 8th July, 257 deaths were people who’d had just one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, however they may have had two doses due to PHS adding them to the one dose figures if their second dose was less than 14 days prior to their death. As of the 15th July, 262 people who’d had just one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine had died of Covid-19. This is an increase of 5.

As of the 8th July, 64 deaths were in the fully vaccinated population. As of the 15th July, 92 deaths were in the fully vaccinated population. This is an increase of 28.

This means that people who’ve been vaccinated against Covid-19 account for 87% of the deaths in the third wave of deaths in Scotland that have just begun. The fully vaccinated account for 74% of the deaths that have only just begun to occur again, those who’d had a single dose account for 13% of the deaths, and the unvaccinated account for just 13% of the deaths.

This is despite the fact the fully vaccinated account for just 23% of the cases seen in the previous four weeks.

By unpicking the data that Public Health Scotland have cleverly attempted to hide we have proven that you are more likely to be hospitalised and more likely to die if you are infected with Covid-19 after being vaccinated.

 

Does the Delta variant behave differently in Scotland, too?  It looks as though vaccination confers no benefit over unvaccinated.

 

This conclusion based on a miniscule sample size over 7 days is a lie.

Truth is 64 / 2962 = 2% of Covid deaths are in vaccinated people.  98% of Covid deaths are in unvaccinated people.

[TimHauck 1,801]

1 hour ago, Gepetto said:

 

This conclusion based on a miniscule sample size over 7 days is a lie.

Truth is 64 / 2962 = 2% of Covid deaths are in vaccinated people.  98% of Covid deaths are in unvaccinated people.

I think the numbers are right actually.   I do agree with those that say it's misleading to say "the vaccinated only account for 2% of deaths!" if you're going back to January or whenever when few people were vaccinated.   But what Casual Observer (as well as the guy who wrote the article that he plagiarized and everyone else fearmongering about vaccinated people dying) fail to understand is that when ~98% of a population is vaccinated, having ~74% of the deaths means the vaccines are working.

For example if I do the same calculation above and say it's 98% fully vaccinated, 1% unvaccinated and 1% partially vaccinated, it comes out to an efficacy against death of 94%.

[Alias Detective 1,179]

On 7/30/2021 at 1:08 PM, Alias Detective said:

The rollover period for the delta variant is 45-90 days.  The. Delta will be all but gone by the beginning of October.

[TimHauck 1,801]

On 8/10/2021 at 8:53 AM, Hawkeye21 said:

Here's a rebuttal to the Mt. Vernon video.  Who's correct?

 

Ah I couldn't find what thread this was posted in.

I had never heard of this guy before this video but he seems pretty cool, and actually questions some of the decisions by the FDA/CDC etc.

Interesting twist (to the story of him "debunking" Dr. Stock) here:

 

 

[jerryskids 5,206]

4 hours ago, TimHauck said:

Ah I couldn't find what thread this was posted in.

I had never heard of this guy before this video but he seems pretty cool, and actually questions some of the decisions by the FDA/CDC etc.

Interesting twist (to the story of him "debunking" Dr. Stock) here:

 

 

Wow, I had never heard that guy before, I agree 98% with him:  messaging is wrong on the vax, and leave the kids alone, are two of the big things I agree with.

The 2% is his position on Ivermectin, although I'd need to hear the details of his objection.

Seems like a middle of the road common sense guy, we should kick Fauci out and put him in charge.   

[Alias Detective 1,179]

As a non faxed person who has natural antibodies, I would be much more apt to get a vaccine if the messaging was as clear as the Dr. in the above clip made it.

 

[TimHauck 1,801]

5 hours ago, jerryskids said:

Wow, I had never heard that guy before, I agree 98% with him:  messaging is wrong on the vax, and leave the kids alone, are two of the big things I agree with.

The 2% is his position on Ivermectin, although I'd need to hear the details of his objection.

Seems like a middle of the road common sense guy, we should kick Fauci out and put him in charge.   

 

They both have specifically said people shouldn't be censored for talking about Ivermectin (or anything really) though.