Majority of Americans wrongly believe US is in recession

[Strike 4,131]

13 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

No, it’s not.  You said “all they care about is how they respond to a question.”

The poll had multiple questions, and that one question isn’t all people cared about.

Sure, Honcho could have used a better title.  But you’re still wrong.

I think you misinterpret my post.  I wasn't saying that the people polled only care about that one question.  I'm saying Honcho and libs don't care about what people are dealing with economically.  They just want to pull a gotcha on those people since we're technically not in a recession.  The economy is not good for a lot of Americans and that fact isn't good for Biden's reelection chances so libs are trying in any way possible to frame the economy as good despite what people are dealing with.

 

  I've heard some economists refer to the current economy as a "K" economy because it has a couple of legs and the experience one is having in this economy is either good or bad depending on which let you are on.  Most of the people on this bored are probably on the good leg.  They should have some empathy for those on the other leg. 

[Mike Honcho 4,191]

35 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

No, it’s not.  You said “all they care about is how they respond to a question.”

The poll had multiple questions, and that one question isn’t all people cared about.

Sure, Honcho could have used a better title.  But you’re still wrong.

In my defense, I copy and pasted the first half of the title from the article itself. I'm lazy that way. 

[RLLD 3,588]

1 hour ago, The Real timschochet said:

I’d like you to be more specific here: 

1. What Biden policies have “ruthlessly harmed us”? 

2. What Trump policies were “working for us” that we need to get back? 
 

Thank you. 

Perhaps the worst thing was “Inflation Reduction Act” misnamed on purpose, since it did not reduce, but instead fomented inflation, there were others, and I am frankly surprised you have no awareness of this, but it speaks to your insistence that what is happening is not true...

Good Trump things

Sadly, I have to head out to get ready for my trip to GITMO....dealing with some ancillary outcomes of the Biden fock up I spent a month fixing over in Syria.....but will catch back up when i get my R&R in puerto rico

[RLLD 3,588]

1 hour ago, thegeneral said:

Yes of course. That doesn’t mean the economy isn’t doing well. Inflation was going to occur no matter who was in power.

The Dems would be doing the same thing if dumbass actually won and was in charge. They would be saying look what happened when this guy ran the show. Time for a change back to one of us with whoever the GOP put up.

Give credit to a decent economy under Trump for first years, many would never do this for Obama when he left the place way better than he got it, but acknowledge it was a shetshow when he left.

The economy is doing well....for who....?  This is what seems lost on you.....the economy is fine if you are of means, but if you are not is is a disaster

[The Real timschochet 3,326]

4 minutes ago, RLLD said:

Perhaps the worst thing was “Inflation Reduction Act” misnamed on purpose, since it did not reduce, but instead fomented inflation, there were others, and I am frankly surprised you have no awareness of this, but it speaks to your insistence that what is happening is not true...

Good Trump things

Sadly, I have to head out to get ready for my trip to GITMO....dealing with some ancillary outcomes of the Biden fock up I spent a month fixing over in Syria.....but will catch back up when i get my R&R in puerto rico

Thanks again. 
 

Well, first off of course I disagree with you on Biden’s bill which I think was mostly good spending, I think Tim Scott is completely wrong. In any event, and this is a point that I have made to you before, I believe it’s far too early to accurately the judge the effects of Biden’s spending bills. We won’t see how those affected the economy for years to come. It’s certainly flawed logic, IMO, to attempt to tie any spending that Biden has done to inflation, which is world wide since Covid. I agree that Biden’s spending bill was misnamed but that’s a minor issue. 

Moving on to Trump, I asked you what policies he enacted that led to good times. Most of what you listed were results that occurred during his time in office, not policies put forth by him. I would argue that most of these results were tied to policies put forth by Obama- again it always takes a few years. As zi go down your list pretty much the only specific policy you can point to was the tax cut. This provided, I believe, short term gains but they were pretty illusory. We are paying for that tax cut now in terms of greater deficits which has made it more difficult for us to tackle the inflation issue. 
 

So in conclusion I find your thinking wrong on this. Not that it will help Biden because it appears that far more of the public agree with you rather than me on these issues. 

[RLLD 3,588]

7 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Thanks again. 
 

Well, first off of course I disagree with you on Biden’s bill which I think was mostly good spending, I think Tim Scott is completely wrong. In any event, and this is a point that I have made to you before, I believe it’s far too early to accurately the judge the effects of Biden’s spending bills. We won’t see how those affected the economy for years to come. It’s certainly flawed logic, IMO, to attempt to tie any spending that Biden has done to inflation, which is world wide since Covid. I agree that Biden’s spending bill was misnamed but that’s a minor issue. 

Moving on to Trump, I asked you what policies he enacted that led to good times. Most of what you listed were results that occurred during his time in office, not policies put forth by him. I would argue that most of these results were tied to policies put forth by Obama- again it always takes a few years. As zi go down your list pretty much the only specific policy you can point to was the tax cut. This provided, I believe, short term gains but they were pretty illusory. We are paying for that tax cut now in terms of greater deficits which has made it more difficult for us to tackle the inflation issue. 
 

So in conclusion I find your thinking wrong on this. Not that it will help Biden because it appears that far more of the public agree with you rather than me on these issues. 

I get it that you disagree, all good, differing opinions will happen

[thegeneral 1,594]

5 minutes ago, RLLD said:

The economy is doing well....for who....?  This is what seems lost on you.....the economy is fine if you are of means, but if you are not is is a disaster

Isn’t this the same thing over and over again?

The economy is doing well by measuring unemployment, growth, consumer spending, etc. These numbers are healthy for the US economy. Yes inflation is a terrible problem and it will impact the poor more than the rich.

Inflation would have occurred regardless because of the actions we took when everything was shut down. The country is doing well in comparison to other like nations who also dealt with the global impact of the covid pandemic. 

I get the party trying to gain control using this as a main argument. It’s what is happening to people and they see it every day. 

This article in the OP presents what I found interesting that people think one thing about the set of info that is just incorrect. Seems pretty clear it all comes down to stuff costing more. People not having money in the stock market, or being priced out of housing has been an issue for some time and will only become more prominent in many markets without a serious downturn or some type of intervention.

 

[Cdub100 3,474]

I like how we keep changing the rules. Don't like CPI data. Drop coffee from the reading. Don't like the indicators showing a recession? Use something else.

[RLLD 3,588]

Just now, thegeneral said:

Isn’t this the same thing over and over again?

The economy is doing well by measuring unemployment, growth, consumer spending, etc. These numbers are healthy for the US economy. Yes inflation is a terrible problem and it will impact the poor more than the rich.

Inflation would have occurred regardless because of the actions we took when everything was shut down. The country is doing well in comparison to other like nations who also dealt with the global impact of the covid pandemic. 

I get the party trying to gain control using this as a main argument. It’s what is happening to people and they see it every day. 

This article in the OP presents what I found interesting that people think one thing about the set of info that is just incorrect. Seems pretty clear it all comes down to stuff costing more. People not having money in the stock market, or being priced out of housing has been an issue for some time and will only become more prominent in many markets without a serious downturn or some type of intervention.

 

Inflation may have arisen.....it can arise at any time..... something as simple as threatening the energy sector can cause it.  But that is not so bad, as long as you recognize it and deal with it forthrightly.....if instead, you ignore it however, then is progressively gets worse....and then later....if you pretend is just temporary......it gets even worse....it can get so bad that you harm people.

Then, any good that may be arising does not matter.....because you have harmed so many people, you cannot win the election.

[GutterBoy 2,539]

4 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

I like how we keep changing the rules. Don't like CPI data. Drop coffee from the reading. Don't like the indicators showing a recession? Use something else.

We have an accepted definition for recession, 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP.  We haven't had that.  By definition, there is no recession.

[thegeneral 1,594]

13 minutes ago, RLLD said:

Inflation may have arisen.....it can arise at any time..... something as simple as threatening the energy sector can cause it.  But that is not so bad, as long as you recognize it and deal with it forthrightly.....if instead, you ignore it however, then is progressively gets worse....and then later....if you pretend is just temporary......it gets even worse....it can get so bad that you harm people.

Then, any good that may be arising does not matter.....because you have harmed so many people, you cannot win the election.

It’s a bad political argument to make but it would have risen regardless. That was baked in when trillions were given away, production slowed to a crawl, then open everything back up. It’s an issue everywhere.

People want to elect clown man again I’ll take my tax cut, watch all these arguments flip - like stock market highs are bad and gdp growth is bad - and watch the clown show. 

[RLLD 3,588]

1 minute ago, thegeneral said:

It’s a bad political argument to make but it would have risen regardless. That was baked in when trillions were given away, production slowed to a crawl, then open everything back up. It’s an issue everywhere.

People want to elect clown man again I’ll take my tax cut, watch all these arguments flip - like stock market highs are bad and gdp growth is bad - and watch the clown show. 

It may have risen, and I believe that were Trump in there, he would not have lied it away....IMHO.....   and dealt with it.  This is benefit of having someone not immersed in the political swamp.

If we can get back to just simple common sense, I would take that, just an end to ongoing setup for misery.....

[thegeneral 1,594]

1 minute ago, RLLD said:

It may have risen, and I believe that were Trump in there, he would not have lied it away....IMHO.....   and dealt with it.  This is benefit of having someone not immersed in the political swamp.

If we can get back to just simple common sense, I would take that, just an end to ongoing setup for misery.....

I don’t know how you come to the conclusion he wouldn’t lie it away. The guy is full of shet on everything. “Greatest economy in the history of the world!”.

Maybe he would have done things differently and it would have been less (or more) who knows. Not a great argument for Biden in any case.

 

 

[Cdub100 3,474]

47 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

We have an accepted definition for recession, 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP.  We haven't had that.  By definition, there is no recession.

We did have that in 2023 but they said it didn't count and then changed how they do the calculation. 

They are doing it with the inflation reading right now. They say it's 3.8% but it's way more than that. Anyone who has left their house knows it. Inflation continues to be high but the books are cooked.

And just to be clear. I'm not blaming Biden for this. It's the whole focking government on both sides. Trump can't fix this nobody can. That is what the slide-down looks like.

S&P is going to hit super all times soon NLT 2026 and then we are going to crash HARD. It's a house of cards being held up by the money printing. We might not see hyperinflation but it's going to be bad.

[TBayXXXVII 2,215]

5 hours ago, Mike Honcho said:

 

Speaking of uninformed.  Yikes. 

Makes sense... polls generally skew towards liberal opinion.

[TimHauck 1,899]

2 hours ago, Strike said:

I think you misinterpret my post.  I wasn't saying that the people polled only care about that one question.  I'm saying Honcho and libs don't care about what people are dealing with economically.  They just want to pull a gotcha on those people since we're technically not in a recession.  The economy is not good for a lot of Americans and that fact isn't good for Biden's reelection chances so libs are trying in any way possible to frame the economy as good despite what people are dealing with.

 

  I've heard some economists refer to the current economy as a "K" economy because it has a couple of legs and the experience one is having in this economy is either good or bad depending on which let you are on.  Most of the people on this bored are probably on the good leg.  They should have some empathy for those on the other leg. 

Where did any “libs” say they don’t care about what people are dealing with?   Stating facts or being surprised at these poll answers doesn’t mean they don’t care what people are dealing with.

If anything, the posters here such as @edjr that are rooting for the market to crash are the ones that don’t seem to care what people are dealing with.

[Sean Mooney 1,235]

I said this months ago when a poll came out that people felt they were better off than they were financially a few years ago but that the economy was bad. It is a disconnect. Not in reality, but in messaging.

 

But I was told people should vote their FEELZ!

[thegeneral 1,594]

Nearly half of Americans think the stock market is down this year.

That’s not some random number like GDP or CPI or some egghead economic measurements. 

It’s a very easy to see number, it’s black and white, it’s one click away on a phone. 

That is just odd, something strange is up with people.

 

[Hardcore troubadour 13,032]

Holy Shitt. You know what? Fock it. Tell people their  bills  aren’t through the roof. Maybe some will believe you. Good luck. 

[jonmx 1,766]

8 hours ago, thegeneral said:

Isn’t this the same thing over and over again?

The economy is doing well by measuring unemployment, growth, consumer spending, etc. These numbers are healthy for the US economy. Yes inflation is a terrible problem and it will impact the poor more than the rich.

Inflation would have occurred regardless because of the actions we took when everything was shut down. The country is doing well in comparison to other like nations who also dealt with the global impact of the covid pandemic. 

I get the party trying to gain control using this as a main argument. It’s what is happening to people and they see it every day. 

This article in the OP presents what I found interesting that people think one thing about the set of info that is just incorrect. Seems pretty clear it all comes down to stuff costing more. People not having money in the stock market, or being priced out of housing has been an issue for some time and will only become more prominent in many markets without a serious downturn or some type of intervention.

 

You fail to mention declining real wages, and that is the only stat that really matters to most American families. 

[EternalShinyAndChrome 2,805]

Imagine having the audacity to tell people they aren't feeling and experiencing any economic pain because they used the wrong word. 

Yeah, we actually have posters in here saying that.

[Cdub100 3,474]

1 minute ago, EternalShinyAndChrome said:

Imagine having the audacity to tell people they aren't feeling and experiencing any economic pain because they used the wrong word. 

Yeah, we actually have posters in here saying that.

I'm told words are violence.

[thegeneral 1,594]

Just now, EternalShinyAndChrome said:

Imagine having the audacity to tell people they aren't feeling and experiencing any economic pain because they used the wrong word. 

Yeah, we actually have posters in here saying that.

I wouldn’t advise telling people they aren’t having to pay more for stuff I get that.

It’s very odd that anyone would think the stock market is down much less like 50% of people asked. That one doesn’t track. Same for unemployment being at all time highs. These just don’t make sense.

[GutterBoy 2,539]

4 minutes ago, EternalShinyAndChrome said:

Imagine having the audacity to tell people they aren't feeling and experiencing any economic pain because they used the wrong word. 

Yeah, we actually have posters in here saying that.

Name one poster that said that people aren't feeling pain or economic problems right now?

[Strike 4,131]

3 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

I wouldn’t advise telling people they aren’t having to pay more for stuff I get that.

It’s very odd that anyone would think the stock market is down much less like 50% of people asked. That one doesn’t track. Same for unemployment being at all time highs. These just don’t make sense.

Why are you talking about the stock market?  I've been told by the libs that average Joe doesn't invest in the stock market.  Only rich people do which is why we have to tax the hell out of big corporations.  That will help the little man with zero impact on their nonexistent savings and investments.

[thegeneral 1,594]

5 minutes ago, Strike said:

Why are you talking about the stock market?  I've been told by the libs that average Joe doesn't invest in the stock market.  Only rich people do which is why we have to tax the hell out of big corporations.  That will help the little man with zero impact on their nonexistent savings and investments.

It’s in the article in the OP. 

Same for the inflation.

Like half the population is severely misinformed about black and white figures. It’s strange. 

[TimHauck 1,899]

23 minutes ago, EternalShinyAndChrome said:

Imagine having the audacity to tell people they aren't feeling and experiencing any economic pain because they used the wrong word. 

Yeah, we actually have posters in here saying that.

Who said that?  Here you go making incorrect conclusions again based on things that weren’t said 

[TimHauck 1,899]

15 minutes ago, Strike said:

Why are you talking about the stock market?  I've been told by the libs that average Joe doesn't invest in the stock market.  Only rich people do which is why we have to tax the hell out of big corporations.  That will help the little man with zero impact on their nonexistent savings and investments.

Still working on reading past the title?  I know it’s hard for your old eyes to see (your words from the past), but maybe you should finish reading before commenting.

[GutterBoy 2,539]

I have a family member that is struggling financially.  She was struggling financially in 2010 when she had to short sell her house because she made a bad financial decision.

She was struggling in 2019 because she was living past her means

She's still struggling in 2024.  It's not because of Biden.  She knows the market is up.  She knows that she's bad with money and lives beyond her means.  I give her money to help her.  I don't tell her she's fine.

[Engorgeous George 1,346]

For my household everyday items are substantially more expensive than only a few years ago.  That said I filled my truck yesterday and the price was $2.99 a gallon so not bad.  Just last week I paid over $4.00 a gallon in the mountains and out in the high dessert of Utah.

The stock market is very volitile.  Last week record highs, this week down 1000 pooints.  I seem to recall numbers in the 37,000 or 36,000 in the last year and bounces up to the 38,000 and 39,000 and back down and then up again.

I hear monthly employment numbers and inflation numbers touted, and then revised because they were wrong.

I hear reported numbers are based upon new calculations from years ago.

I find Biden, and his administration untrustworthy on reported numbers, and rightfully so when he touts inflation was at 9% when he took office.

I find the congressional budget office's numbers a bit more reliable.

Neither party cares about me or mine, they just care about obtaining power or remaining in power.

Things could be worse, and will eventually get there.  I fear for my progeny. 

Still, things are good enough we will host our annual Memorial Day picnic.  No steak this year, but otherwise the beer will flow and the grill will be full.

[Strike 4,131]

3 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Still working on reading past the title?  I know it’s hard for your old eyes to see (your words from the past), but maybe you should finish reading before commenting.

As usual the point went right over your head.  You'd think after your Foreigner debacle yesterday you'd take a step back but here you are again......

[thegeneral 1,594]

12 minutes ago, Engorgeous George said:

For my household everyday items are substantially more expensive than only a few years ago.  That said I filled my truck yesterday and the price was $2.99 a gallon so not bad.  Just last week I paid over $4.00 a gallon in the mountains and out in the high dessert of Utah.

The stock market is very volitile.  Last week record highs, this week down 1000 pooints.  I seem to recall numbers in the 37,000 or 36,000 in the last year and bounces up to the 38,000 and 39,000 and back down and then up again.

I hear monthly employment numbers and inflation numbers touted, and then revised because they were wrong.

I hear reported numbers are based upon new calculations from years ago.

I find Biden, and his administration untrustworthy on reported numbers, and rightfully so when he touts inflation was at 9% when he took office.

I find the congressional budget office's numbers a bit more reliable.

Neither party cares about me or mine, they just care about obtaining power or remaining in power.

Things could be worse, and will eventually get there.  I fear for my progeny. 

Still, things are good enough we will host our annual Memorial Day picnic.  No steak this year, but otherwise the beer will flow and the grill will be full.

Stock market is well up over past year and decently YTD. It’s not murky or grey area. It’s cut and dry. People think it’s down.

Unemployment is at or near historic lows for an extended period. It is like some 50 year record of being this low for such an extended period.

These aren’t tricky or mysterious numbers like other economic measurements.

How this many people are completely wrong is weird to me.

[Engorgeous George 1,346]

8 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

Stock market is well up over past year and decently YTD. It’s not murky or grey area. It’s cut and dry. People think it’s down.

Unemployment is at or near historic lows for an extended period. It is like some 50 year record of being this low for such an extended period.

These aren’t tricky or mysterious numbers like other economic measurements.

How this many people are completely wrong is weird to me.

Even with this weeks losses the market, though volitile, is up over the last year.

Unemployment is tricky as the basis of the number has been redefined and it does not incorporate underemployment and those who have abandoned the job market.  Still, the rate, as now calculated, is low, no question.

People are resistant to facts.  Paul Simon wrote "Still a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest". And the Grateful Dead, in Black Throated Wind wrote "You ain't gonna learn waht you don't want to know."  We are fascinatingly stupid creatures, but may be worthy of saving, who knows.

[thegeneral 1,594]

2 minutes ago, Engorgeous George said:

Even with this weeks losses the market, though volitile, is up over the last year.

Unemployment is tricky as the basis of the number has been redefined and it does not incorporate underemployment and those who have abandoned the job market.  Still, the rate, as now calculated, is low, no question.

People are resistant to facts.  Paul Simon wrote "Still a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest". And the Grateful Dead, in Black Throated Wind wrote "You ain't gonna learn waht you don't want to know."  We are fascinatingly stupid creatures, but may be worthy of saving, who knows.

It’s not that it’s just up over the past year, it’s up a crazy amount where it is expected and normal for it to drop - even dramatically. Major indexes are like at like 20-30% over this period which is wild.

This may be more of an overall ignorance about the stock market but it’s nonetheless a black and white figure that everyone can click on their phones in two seconds.

Same for unemployment figures. 

Why this is the case is fascinating to me.

It’s too early for me to find some Pink Floyd quotes but I’m sure there are some that would work here

 

[TimHauck 1,899]

30 minutes ago, Engorgeous George said:

Even with this weeks losses the market, though volitile, is up over the last year.

Unemployment is tricky as the basis of the number has been redefined and it does not incorporate underemployment and those who have abandoned the job market.  Still, the rate, as now calculated, is low, no question.

People are resistant to facts.  Paul Simon wrote "Still a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest". And the Grateful Dead, in Black Throated Wind wrote "You ain't gonna learn waht you don't want to know."  We are fascinatingly stupid creatures, but may be worthy of saving, who knows.

Extreme ignorance of unemployment figures is definitely the most shocking to me.

Even if you’re just going off “feelz,” there’s no way it feelz worse now than when Covid first hit or after 2008 in regards to unemployment (although it could ultimately get that bad of course).   I thought this was even acknowledged by the right, who instead claim “yeah people need to work 2 or 3 jobs to afford to live because of inflation!” (which in some cases is true).

[TimHauck 1,899]

1 hour ago, Strike said:

Why are you talking about the stock market?  I've been told by the libs that average Joe doesn't invest in the stock market.  Only rich people do which is why we have to tax the hell out of big corporations.  That will help the little man with zero impact on their nonexistent savings and investments.

Isn’t it the righties saying that the average Joe doesn’t invest in the stock market and that’s why it shouldn’t be an indication of a healthy economy?  Who of course also say that stock price is why Disney is failing.

[MDC 6,013]

On 5/23/2024 at 8:51 AM, Mike Honcho said:

 

Speaking of uninformed.  Yikes. 

Can’t really blame them. For people under the age of 50/60 this is the first serious spike in inflation of their adult lives. 

[TimHauck 1,899]

11 minutes ago, MDC said:

Can’t really blame them. For people under the age of 50/60 this is the first serious spike in inflation of their adult lives. 

People that age have been through several recessions and periods of high unemployment though

edit:  Sorry I guess you’re being sarcastic lol

[MDC 6,013]

2 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

People that age have been through several recessions and periods of high unemployment though

edit:  Sorry I guess you’re being sarcastic lol

I wasn’t. The economy feels bad even if it doesn’t technically meet the criteria for a recession because of the spike in prices. 

[Pimpadeaux 2,370]

I tune in to Fox and Newsmax from time to time, and it's amazing how much of all that propaganda and unsubstantiated nonsense gets parroted here and on social media. 

Relatively small negative aspects of the economy get hypercatastrophized while the stock market, job growth, GDP, CPI, higher wages and true economic indicators get swept under the carpet in favor of crappy and poorly run restaurant chains going down the toilet or that poor people should be magically rich if the economy was doing well.

Focking stupidity, ignorance and lack of basic common sense.