First Round Picks You'll Steer Clear Of

[msudavedawg 5]

You do the research, take part in some mocks, you have all your cheetsheets marked up and arranged just so on draft day. It comes to your turn in Round 1 and it all points to taking Player X but you just can't pull the trigger for whatever reason.

 

Which guy is it?

 

For me it is Ray Rice. I picked him 2 years ago when he was the sexy sleeper pick in FF but to me he is just not worth an early or mid first round pick. I would grab him late 1st early second. He just does not seem to have nose for the end zone. Not his fault that McGahee vultured a lot of TDs but in the end it comes down to production and I just don't see his value matching up to his ADP.

[NPNG 4]

Mine this year is MJD. Knee problems have been all to frequent recently and he appears to be on the downhill side of his career. I will be targeting Jennings late in my drafts.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

You do the research, take part in some mocks, you have all your cheetsheets marked up and arranged just so on draft day. It comes to your turn in Round 1 and it all points to taking Player X but you just can't pull the trigger for whatever reason.

 

Which guy is it?

 

For me it is Ray Rice. I picked him 2 years ago when he was the sexy sleeper pick in FF but to me he is just not worth an early or mid first round pick. I would grab him late 1st early second. He just does not seem to have nose for

the end zone. Not his fault that McGahee vultured a lot of TDs but in the end it comes down to production and I just don't see his value matching up to his ADP.

 

 

 

Couldn't disagree more. I will be drafting at the turn this year and Rice along with Charles are the two players I feel the best about. Of course neither will be playing on my team, but one can hope.

 

MJD is the guy that scares me when I think about it. Gore is probably another who has been torn up, and abused that I am leary of.

[Vikings4ever 496]

MJD for his knee

 

Vick for his injury risk and chances of coming back to earth

 

Mendenhall in PPR leagues

[tanatastic 2,061]

I agree on MJD, just too heartbreaking to draft a bust. this year is so strange for me because im only confident with the cream of the crp rbs! Last year by comparison I had so many 2nd round and mid roung guys I was comfy rolling with. i took mccoy and felt great about it. This year if I dont get ap, foster, cj or charles im scared to death! And I hav no clue who I like out of the bums after mendenhall like ced ben, best,etc. im just lost at RB right now.

[bjsteel 34]

You do the research, take part in some mocks, you have all your cheetsheets marked up and arranged just so on draft day. It comes to your turn in Round 1 and it all points to taking Player X but you just can't pull the trigger for whatever reason.

 

Which guy is it?

 

For me it is Ray Rice. I picked him 2 years ago when he was the sexy sleeper pick in FF but to me he is just not worth an early or mid first round pick. I would grab him late 1st early second. He just does not seem to have nose for the end zone. Not his fault that McGahee vultured a lot of TDs but in the end it comes down to production and I just don't see his value matching up to his ADP.

 

Newsflash, McGahee is gone, Rice will be top 3 when all is said and done (in a ppr league).

 

I'm not drafting G. Jennings whatsoever, I think he'll be one of the major busts this year, as far as where he'll be drafted. He was avg to below avg the first 5-weeks last year, then Finley goes down, then Jennings was a stud. Now Finley is back, Nelson came on strong and a healthy RB situation, Jennings wont come anywhere near is ADP.

[Matt Mueller 146]

I'm prob not drafting gore, turner or mjd.

 

I love rice and hope to get him at 4. A couple of notes. He is second to only CJ in total yds from scrimmage the past 2 yeas. In the last quarter of the season he had 500 yds and 3 tds as McGahee wasnt used quite as much. He also had one if their playoff win against kc. McGahee is gone and with new faces possible in bmore rice may be relied on more than ever. Besides ny jets and Pitt twice I love their schedule and his prospects.

 

Charles lack of tds and schedule come week 11 concern me enough to move rice ahead of him.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Also I was kind of down on Jennings but he worked out at Larry fitzs camp this summer and we all saw how much that helped bowe last year.

 

When Finley went down Jennings had to become more than just a deep threat and maybe they further expand his role. 6 tds wouldn't shock me. Neither would 16. I'm not sure.

[rocco91 0]

Guys I just dont want are Mccoy(no reason besides a bad feeling...just too many weaponsand in a non PPR just dont want him as my #1RB)

Gore- just to fragile, MJD- down side of career, and DMAC- just dont believe he can do it again especially with Bush coming back too

 

If I am drafting late I will be going Mendy or WR/QB and stayin away from the guys listed above

[Matt Mueller 146]

I'm with you. The only mocks I've done that I've been happy with are the ones where I get 2 rbs in the first 2 rounds and follow up with a top ten receiver. Anyone after sjax, forte, Blount scares me. I'm ok with the later receivers s holmes steve Johnson j Nelson a collie ect but not the rbs

I agree on MJD, just too heartbreaking to draft a bust. this year is so strange for me because im only confident with the cream of the crp rbs! Last year by comparison I had so many 2nd round and mid roung guys I was comfy rolling with. i took mccoy and felt great about it. This year if I dont get ap, foster, cj or charles im scared to death! And I hav no clue who I like out of the bums after mendenhall like ced ben, best,etc. im just lost at RB right now.

[prancers 0]

I don't know if I'd be able to pull the trigger on Jamaal Charles in the top 6. I'm drafting #4 and that's right in his range but his schedule scares me, particularly in comparison to his schedule last year. Also a bit weary of the Chiefs O line and offense overall.

 

Also totally agree with others here about MJD. He's been one of my favorite players to own over the years, but his knee issues are a bit scary.

 

Lastly, I don't really like Roddy White in the 1st. He's a safe bet to have a very good season, but he won't see nearly as many targets as last year when he was pretty much the only weapon in the passing game. I think Julio makes an impact immediately and Roddy goes from 170+ targets down to a more normal amount of 140 or so. I still have him as a top 4 WR, but I don't know that I like him enough to pass on RBs like Darren McFadden for him if I am picking late in the 1st.

[bjsteel 34]

I'm with you. The only mocks I've done that I've been happy with are the ones where I get 2 rbs in the first 2 rounds and follow up with a top ten receiver. Anyone after sjax, forte, Blount scares me. I'm ok with the later receivers s holmes steve Johnson j Nelson a collie ect but not the rbs

 

I'm with you on that, seems like if you don't go RB\RB the first two picks, your RB's are weak, and the WR's available after the 3rd round seem to be better than the available RB's.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Yeah I don't see the value or upside in roddy this year. I'd much rather a rb and miles Austin- mike Williams who I think are right on par with him. I think the top 3 fitz calvin Andre all have an upside he doesn't. Nicks and maybe Wallace too. At his adp I'll pass.

[FeelingMN 273]

Gore. Injuries, bad team, new coach, no thanks.

 

Turner. Do people still call him "burner"? Maybe, I think he'll burn a few FF teams this year.

[giraldi02 470]

Arian Foster. His fullback is probably gone. I'd need to take him in the top two. Meh. He'll still do good, and since I don't have a top pick in my drafts I guess I don't need to worry anyways.

 

Michael Turner. He put up good numbers last season, but anyone that had him rostered can tell you that doesn't tell the entire story. I'd rather take an elite receiver

[IGotWorms 3,317]

These are the guys I am avoiding like the plague in the first two rounds: Gore, SJax, Turner, MJD, McFadden, Jennings & Wayne.

[gocolts 300]

These are the guys I am avoiding like the plague in the first two rounds: Gore, SJax, Turner, MJD, McFadden, Jennings & Wayne.

:thumbsup: I agree with you on all of them. I will let someone else take a risk on those guys that early.

[De Novo 0]

MJD, Gore, Michael Turner

[koopatroopa 0]

I will not draft DeSean Jackson. You guys are naming off stud RB's i will gladly draft. I dont see how you can skip on gore, turner, mjd, foster, u guys have named almost all the top RB's.

I can understand how each one has potential downfalls, but not enough to make me not want to draft them. Like I said though, I will not draft DeSean anywhere close to his ADP.

[ICEMAN 39]

Also I was kind of down on Jennings but he worked out at Larry fitzs camp this summer and we all saw how much that helped bowe last year.

 

When Finley went down Jennings had to become more than just a deep threat and maybe they further expand his role. 6 tds wouldn't shock me. Neither would 16. I'm not sure.

 

FYI, Jennings worked-out at camp Fitz last offseason as well. They are best friends.

 

I don't think that him working out again with Larry Fitzgerald is the thing that is going to put him over the top. With Jennings I think that it all really comes to health. I know that Finley is coming back this season, but I still think that (barring injury) Jennings can be penciled-in for 1200/10.

 

ICEMAN

[polecatt 403]

I would defintely say MJD. His knee, you guys know why. Desean Jackson, holdout, injury waiting to happen, inconsistency, etc. Possibly Turner, his workrate has really been heavy so he's due to hit a wall, but at the same time if he doesn't he'll have a big year.

[IGotWorms 3,317]

I will not draft DeSean Jackson. You guys are naming off stud RB's i will gladly draft. I dont see how you can skip on gore, turner, mjd, foster, u guys have named almost all the top RB's.

I can understand how each one has potential downfalls, but not enough to make me not want to draft them. Like I said though, I will not draft DeSean anywhere close to his ADP.

 

Gore, Turner, and MJD are all broke down to some extent. Nobody likes broke down RBs. Well nobody except you, apparently.

[jgcrawfish 232]

Gore, Turner, MJD, Steven Jackson and Hillis are all on my DND until late 2nd (or later) list, which they won't make it to. I feel like Arian Foster will fall back to the pack this year. Losing his stud fullback is a bigger loss than most people think. I'm steering clear of Reggie Wayne and think Roddy will also see a reduction in targets due to Julio Jones (who will make an impact faster than most rookie WR's).

[Boilermaker04 11]

Gore, Turner, MJD, Steven Jackson and Hillis are all on my DND until late 2nd (or later) list, which they won't make it to. I feel like Arian Foster will fall back to the pack this year. Losing his stud fullback is a bigger loss than most people think. I'm steering clear of Reggie Wayne and think Roddy will also see a reduction in targets due to Julio Jones (who will make an impact faster than most rookie WR's).

 

I've seen Hillis start to slide in some of my mocks...I'd give him a serious look in the 3rd.

 

MJD and Turner are DND for me this year. I think the miles they've put on the last few years are starting to show.

[nos23 1]

All of you are over reacting about MJDs knee. First of all i do agree that i wouldn't take him in the first few picks, but if you can get him with like pics 8- 12 u could be getting a steal. I wouldn't panic about his knee unless he starts missing practice because of the knee. He does have the talent to lead the league in rushing.

[el_duderino 0]

All of you are over reacting about MJDs knee. First of all i do agree that i wouldn't take him in the first few picks, but if you can get him with like pics 8- 12 u could be getting a steal. I wouldn't panic about his knee unless he starts missing practice because of the knee. He does have the talent to lead the league in rushing.

 

 

I'm with you on this. I'll pick MJD at the end of the 1st.

 

My 1st round pick I'm steering clear of is: Darren McFadden. He showed some great talent last year. I still question his balance and durability. The kid doesn't seem too bright either. With M. Bush coming back I believe McFadden has too many questions for me. Honestly I think Bush is just as good as McFadden and would love to see him get a shot at being a lead back.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

I'm picking #4. Assuming AP, CJ, and Foster go 1-3 in some order, that leaves me with...

 

Charles- Offense added some weapons, but schedule gets much tougher.

McCoy - We are in a ppr, so I may go this way.

MJD - Too risky

Gore - No way. Old, broke, bad offense. No thanks.

SJAX - Been burned here before. It looks tempting with an improving offense and playing in the most defensively defficient division in football history, but I can't do it that high.

Turner - too beat up for my comfort.

 

I don't draft QB's or WR's this high, so...

 

Im basically looking at Charles or McCoy, and leaning toward McCoy. Not real thrilled about it, but there it is.

[Ondawa 0]

I'm picking #4. Assuming AP, CJ, and Foster go 1-3 in some order, that leaves me with...

 

Charles- Offense added some weapons, but schedule gets much tougher.

McCoy - We are in a ppr, so I may go this way.

MJD - Too risky

Gore - No way. Old, broke, bad offense. No thanks.

SJAX - Been burned here before. It looks tempting with an improving offense and playing in the most defensively defficient division in football history, but I can't do it that high.

Turner - too beat up for my comfort.

 

I don't draft QB's or WR's this high, so...

 

Im basically looking at Charles or McCoy, and leaning toward McCoy. Not real thrilled about it, but there it is.

 

Ray Rice?

[Boilermaker04 11]

Ray Rice?

 

x2.

[dreen626 17]

MJD

 

 

I've never owned Turner but he plays in a top offense and is the primary back.

In a non-ppr scoring league i think he is safe.

 

thoughts on Turner?

[Flgatorguy87 160]

x2.

 

x3

 

I could make a case to take Rice #1

[msudavedawg 5]

Newsflash, McGahee is gone, Rice will be top 3 when all is said and done (in a ppr league).

 

I'm not drafting G. Jennings whatsoever, I think he'll be one of the major busts this year, as far as where he'll be drafted. He was avg to below avg the first 5-weeks last year, then Finley goes down, then Jennings was a stud. Now Finley is back, Nelson came on strong and a healthy RB situation, Jennings wont come anywhere near is ADP.

 

Yeah, but Harbaugh is still there. My hunch is that if he is trotting a broken down McGahee out there once they get inside the 10, that he will not hesitate to throw another big back out there in short yardage this season.

 

While Rice was #5 in scoring my PPR league last year, his game logs are underwhelming. I don't see riding him week to week like Foster, Charles, Vick, MJD, McCoy, CJ2K et al. He only rushed for more than 100 yards in 2 games. Hey, FF is all about going with your gut and if yours says he's top 5 then you go with him. IMO, I would take 7-8 guys before him in round 1. If I'm drafting near the turn and he falls that far then I would take him. Just not a top 5 pick for me.

[bwillingham 0]

I think you have to consider Rice, especially in a PPR. With McGahee and McClain gone and the ravens picking up a solid blocking fullback, I don't see how, short of injury, he doesn't end up top 5.

[stonewall 647]

These are the guys I am avoiding like the plague in the first two rounds: Gore, SJax, Turner, MJD, McFadden, Jennings & Wayne.

 

 

Well said Worms

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Usual suspects.....Gore, SJax, Turner.

 

No to McCoy since I don't think the TD's will be there for him.

 

Whoever said they're passing on Vick in the 1st is high on crack. No one comes close to his his ceiling.

 

I say AJ and White too, if they're being picked over Calvin Johnson. Calvin's #1 this year for me.

[Matt Mueller 146]

1. Ray rice is second to only CJ in total yds the past 2 years

2. They lost McGahee

3. They got the fullback from Houston that helped foster lead the league I'm rushing last year.

I think you have to consider Rice, especially in a PPR. With McGahee and McClain gone and the ravens picking up a solid blocking fullback, I don't see how, short of injury, he doesn't end up top 5.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

Ray Rice?

 

 

x2.

 

 

x3

 

I could make a case to take Rice #1

 

See, I'm getting too old for this sh!t. Can't even intelligently discuss backs without my cheat sheet handy without forgetting someone. I like Rice a bit better than McCoy at #4 now that you mention him.

[Giants Fan 85]

I'm picking #4. Assuming AP, CJ, and Foster go 1-3 in some order, that leaves me with...

 

Charles- Offense added some weapons, but schedule gets much tougher.

McCoy - We are in a ppr, so I may go this way.

MJD - Too risky

Gore - No way. Old, broke, bad offense. No thanks.

SJAX - Been burned here before. It looks tempting with an improving offense and playing in the most defensively defficient division in football history, but I can't do it that high.

Turner - too beat up for my comfort.

 

I don't draft QB's or WR's this high, so...

 

Im basically looking at Charles or McCoy, and leaning toward McCoy. Not real thrilled about it, but there it is.

 

Vick.

[Kent 228]

Arian Foster. His fullback is probably gone. I'd need to take him in the top two. Meh. He'll still do good, and since I don't have a top pick in my drafts I guess I don't need to worry anyways.

 

Michael Turner. He put up good numbers last season, but anyone that had him rostered can tell you that doesn't tell the entire story. I'd rather take an elite receiver

 

Foster caught almost 70 balls last year. He's probably the safest bet at RB this year. No real changes to his offense. No hold out.

 

MJD is a guy I won't risk a first rounder on. I don't like what they are doing with him in Jax and the QB situation is not good.

[dreen626 17]

Would you all draft MJD at top of 2nd round or are you staying away from him there too?