Is there any science to choosing a kicker?

[n_omarley 11]

I'm a very successful long-time player of ff, but I must ask a question.

 

As I was setting my final lineups tonight, I got to the kicker position, and wondered to myself, "Does it really matter whom I start here?"

 

I have Jason Hanson, as I have nearly every year for the past 20 years. Web sites rank other kickers higher. ESPN has other kickers (who are available to pick up) projected to score more. Maybe he kicks two or three extra points. Maybe he kicks four field goals.

 

Is there really any true way to project kicker output????

[GreenTD 56]

I'm a very successful long-time player of ff, but I must ask a question.

 

As I was setting my final lineups tonight, I got to the kicker position, and wondered to myself, "Does it really matter whom I start here?"

 

I have Jason Hanson, as I have nearly every year for the past 20 years. Web sites rank other kickers higher. ESPN has other kickers (who are available to pick up) projected to score more. Maybe he kicks two or three extra points. Maybe he kicks four field goals.

 

Is there really any true way to project kicker output????

 

Simply put... No.

 

There's no tried & true way of projecting kicker points. The obvious tactic would be pick a kicker who's on a high scoring offense but that's obvious. A kicker who's team struggles in the redzone is another one but that is dependent on the opposing team as well.

 

I think the one aspect of a kicker's value that is highly overlooked is having a great defense as well. A team that will take the 3 points no matter what because they believe their defense can shut down the other team's offense is valuable as well.

 

But it still boils down to my original answer.... Not really.

[Birk 14]

I'm a very successful long-time player of ff, but I must ask a question.

 

As I was setting my final lineups tonight, I got to the kicker position, and wondered to myself, "Does it really matter whom I start here?"

 

I have Jason Hanson, as I have nearly every year for the past 20 years. Web sites rank other kickers higher. ESPN has other kickers (who are available to pick up) projected to score more. Maybe he kicks two or three extra points. Maybe he kicks four field goals.

 

Is there really any true way to project kicker output????

 

I guess if they are playing a tough defense you may get some FG's, but i play a team that i know will at least score, im taking Pitts this week.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

its nice to go with a guy you know can boot 50 yarders and their teams have no problem sending them out there for a 56 yarder... a lot of league give a bonus for longer FG's.

 

the danger with high scoring offenses, especially against a bad defense is that you end up with 6 extra points.

 

a kicker with a big leg, on a team with a decent offense but not an elite one is the route i usually go.

[cbfalcon 824]

The science is simple. Check the stats every week and make sure you have the highest scoring guy available. How they've done thus far is about the only thing worth going by.

[RamslovaMartzhata 3]

Like all fantasy positions you never know... Probably even more so than other positions. But to say there is no rhyme or reason to it is false in my opinion.

 

Is anyone going to start Folk? No.

 

Would you feel good starting Crosby right now, despite him being on a good offense with little running threats in the red zone? Probably not

 

And during the fantasy playoffs / championships.... Look out for weather.

 

Sure you can get Connor Barthed at Tynes, but there is still a thought process involved.

[murf74 461]

Weather this week could matter

 

Other than I don't starta kicker on a team that I think will lose that week

[Matt Mueller 146]

A couple weeks back I asked a question on numberfire of Tynes, Hanson or Tucker?

 

This was one of the best fantasy football responses I've ever gotten.

 

'I have a decision rule for kickers. I let Vegas tell me who to start. The answer is Hanson. Here's how i do it....look at the over/under for the game, the Lions game is about 51.5. Next you look at the point spread (6.5). Basically, Vegas is saying that the Lions are going to win 29 to 22.5. The Lions are projected to score 29 points, that's more than any of your other kickers. Vegas being more efficient than any other prognosticator, you gotta go with the kicker of the team that they say is going to score the most points. Plus its in a dome!'

 

 

Hanson scored the most points that week.

 

http://www.fftoday.com/stats/playerstats.php?Season=2012&GameWeek=13&PosID=80&LeagueID=86621

[southcarolina 166]

First, kickers are a crapshoot. There really is no way to predict.

 

 

For me its all about scoring opportunities...which kicker will have highest likelihood of being given a shot at multiple field goals during a game. I look for a kicker on a team that attempts a lot of FGs, preferably one playing a team that gives up a lot of FG attempts. Its not rocket science.

 

The top 8 teams in FG attempts are

 

Giants (39)

Falcons (36)

49ers (35)

Lions(32)

Raiders(32)

Vikings(32)

Patriots (32)

Texans (32)

 

The top 8 teams that have given up the most FG attempts are the

 

Dolphins (39)

Jaguars (39)

Ravens (36)

Lions (35)

Chiefs (35)

Colts (34)

Raiders (34)

Panthers (34)

 

 

So, in my little logic circle the best matchups this week would be kickers from the first list playing teams from the second list

 

Stephen Gostkowski vs the Jaguars

Matt Bryant vs the Lions

Lawrence Tynes vs the Ravens

Sebastian Janikowski vs the Panthers

 

if none of these are available, i would just choose a K from a team that kicks a lot of FG

 

Graham vs Vikings (21 FG Att given up)

Hanson vs Atlanta (21),

Walsh vs Texans (18)

Akers vs Seattle (17 ),

 

 

 

If im not able to acquire any of those four,i can expand the list. Or resort the data for FG made. In this case Cleveland and Dallas arent in the top 8 in FGA, but they are in the top 8 for FG made. Unfortunately neither of their opponents (the Saints and the Broncos) give up a tremendous amount of FG.

 

At this point if no kicker can be acquired, i can factor in weather, a dome, or home field.

 

 

After that its basically a gut feeling, and drawing names out of a hat.

[American Chewy 98]

i've heard of the o/u vegas thing too, take the K thats available in the highest o/u game you can. though last week the bucs-saints and giants-falcons were the two highest o/u games and in each game you had a kicker get zero or negative points. so go figure.

 

i think the best way to go is take a kicker on a top 10 offense on a team with a high + turnover ratio (find teams that don't turn it over and create lots of turnovers with their defense). teams that would fit the bill are:

 

new england, atlanta, new york giants, houston, and washington.

 

4 of those teams have kickers in the top 6 in kicker scoring this season. only washington's kicker is bad but they never seem to have an established kicker. if they had one he would probably be amongst the top kickers.

 

the key is opportunity. get someone with the most possible and ride them all season.

[RicemanX 20]

You can look at FGM and FGA and Red Zone Offense and Red Zone Defense.

 

Or you can just choose a dude.

 

I really don't know.

[IGotWorms 3,315]

From game to game, I don't see much of a strategy. You just never know how an individual game is going to go. The kicker's team could get shut out. Or maybe they score 5 TDs and no field goals. Or maybe they win in a 15-12 field goal fest.

 

But over the course of the season, you want a kicker from a good offense that sometimes struggles in the red zone. Say a team like the Falcons. You know they're good enough to move the ball consistently, but they aren't a constant thread to get in the end zone.

[chroniciguana 13]

There's a science. It's called probability. If you carefully examine the statistics for the past three weeks, consider the matchups, slaughter and sacrifice a chicken, don your lucky underwear, walk backwards through doors and toss darts at a bunch of names, you can probably boost your odds to about 50-50.

 

I actually looked at factors that might answer this question a few years back for an article I was considering peddling. Red zone proficiency didn't pan out. Late season games in domes did seem to sorta work, but this revelation wasn't going to cause anyone's toes to curl. Some stadiums are more challenging, but not so much that it made a measurable difference. The ability to put the ball through the uprights when regularly asked to do so seemed to be the only factor that mattered. Focusing 500 words on the painfully obvious wasn't going to cut it, however. Further, it's a kicker. Any statistical Eureka! moment was going to have to rival discovering the polio vaccine or the New World to get any notice. It wasn't there.

[lguero1 4]

Here is the actual science:

 

For Unusable Kickers : weather, hail, wind, rain, leg strength, coach, red zone, TEs, defense, kick ratio, dome, my team, cost effective correlation to add/drop and possible points gained, home, road, estrogen levels, injury report, starting offense, kicks attempted

 

Here is the formula:

 

(F)or (U)nusable (K)ickers: (K)ick ratio * (I)njury report * ©ost * (K)icks attempted * (E)strogen levels * ®ed zone * (S)tarting offense

 

FUK=KICKERS

[Joscoto 5]

i am the idiot that drafts a kicker first and it usually pays off. New England kicker is the way to go.

 

this year i hoarded tynes after i needed him for bye week cover, both of my kickers are now ranked #1 and #3 so i decided to just hold on to tynes so no one else could get him. feel dumb having two kickers but I mad the Fantasy Bowl so who cares

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

A couple weeks back I asked a question on numberfire of Tynes, Hanson or Tucker?

 

This was one of the best fantasy football responses I've ever gotten.

 

'I have a decision rule for kickers. I let Vegas tell me who to start. The answer is Hanson. Here's how i do it....look at the over/under for the game, the Lions game is about 51.5. Next you look at the point spread (6.5). Basically, Vegas is saying that the Lions are going to win 29 to 22.5. The Lions are projected to score 29 points, that's more than any of your other kickers. Vegas being more efficient than any other prognosticator, you gotta go with the kicker of the team that they say is going to score the most points. Plus its in a dome!'

 

 

Hanson scored the most points that week.

 

http://www.fftoday.com/stats/playerstats.php?Season=2012&GameWeek=13&PosID=80&LeagueID=86621

 

Not that its any more or less accurate than any other method butba team can score 35 points and your kicker nets 5. And the game total could be 70. So I dont get going purely by Vegas.

 

If you want to play it safe, sure. Take a kicker from the highest over under game and there is a decent chance you won't get a zero.

 

But I prefer to go for double digits from my kicker

[Bills04 46]

After what happened last week - I'd have to say "No."

 

I dropped DEN KCR for TB KCR. Using FF Today info. at the time: I was upgrading to the 6th best KCR from the 17th best KCR. And, I was playing my KCR against the team giving up the 9th most points to KCRs, from the opponent giving up the 6th most points to KCRs. I usually add the totals, which resulted in 15 vs. 23. TB KCR did NOTHING, while DEN KCR went off...

[BufordT 371]

Just spent about 20 minutes of my precious time trying to find some common denominators and I found NONE....except...

 

Stephen Gostkowski since 2007, has finished no worse than the sixth best kicker.

 

2006....throw out...it was his rookie campaign and this was before Brady turned into Dan Marino on steroids

2007....2nd highest scoring kicker

2008....1st highest scoring kicker

2009....6th highest scoring kicker...one more extra point and he would've cracked the top 5

2010....throw out...he apparently was injured and only played in 8 games

2011....2nd highest scoring kicker

2012....1st highest scoring kicker....ranked 1st due to Tynes putting up a goose egg last week..LOL

 

No other kicker has shown this kind of consistency. David Akers comes close.

 

Moral of story...kickers are a complet crap shoot, especially if you're trying to match up week in, week out.

 

BTW...taking Kickers from the highest scoring teams didn't translate into anything that made sense nor did starting Kickers playing bad defenses.

 

Oakland Def and Buffalo Def are tied for giving up the most points per game. Oakland has givin up the most points to Kickers. Buffalo has given up the 19th most.

 

I would like to thank FFToday for letting me research this useless info for free.

[Boilermaker04 11]

I always try to have a dome kicker or warm weather kicker by the mid-way point in the season. Decent scoring team, but not too efficient at scoring because field goals are worth so much more than extra points. I'd say you can review who is on hot streaks and jump on if you always look at the past 2-3 weeks instead of the season. I don't have any evidence to support any of this.

 

Extra points counting for anything and tiered scoring for distance on field goals is a flawed scoring system to me, but I think every league I've been in has this and I don't commish anymore, so I guess I don't get to complain

[kilomantis 6]

Long story short.....no.

 

 

I'm a very successful long-time player of ff, but I must ask a question.

 

As I was setting my final lineups tonight, I got to the kicker position, and wondered to myself, "Does it really matter whom I start here?"

 

I have Jason Hanson, as I have nearly every year for the past 20 years. Web sites rank other kickers higher. ESPN has other kickers (who are available to pick up) projected to score more. Maybe he kicks two or three extra points. Maybe he kicks four field goals.

 

Is there really any true way to project kicker output????

[jerryskids 5,206]

After what happened last week - I'd have to say "No."

 

I dropped DEN KCR for TB KCR. Using FF Today info. at the time: I was upgrading to the 6th best KCR from the 17th best KCR. And, I was playing my KCR against the team giving up the 9th most points to KCRs, from the opponent giving up the 6th most points to KCRs. I usually add the totals, which resulted in 15 vs. 23. TB KCR did NOTHING, while DEN KCR went off...

I'd be interested in knowing if they use any kind of formula, although I doubt they would divulge their secret sauce. I kinda feel sorry for the Mikes (or any FF site owners) that they have to rate kickers, because such ratings are probably as accurate as letting my cat hairball on a kicker list, and yet they have to provide it because they are after all a FF site.

 

My strategy every year is: pick a kicker from a high scoring offense in a domed stadium with a late bye. Then as that bye approaches, pick up another similar kicker who was dropped because of an earlier bye. Also at this point you have a better idea of who the actual good offenses are. I almost never flip kickers.

 

And of course, I watch Red Zone and whenever my kicker is trying a field goal, I turn my Bud Light label out to help the fluid dynamics.

[tabris 1]

Kicker playing in a dome to hedge against weather conditions. After that, it's a crapshoot.

[smashmouths@blf 33]

Kicker playing in a dome to hedge against weather conditions. After that, it's a crapshoot.

This.

[hoytdwow 202]

Kicker playing in a dome to hedge against weather conditions. After that, it's a crapshoot.

yep...I also try to get one from a high scoring team if I can. Shayne Graham

[Captain Goomy Noomy Roo 47]

I always shoot for the highest kicker available on the highest scoring team.

 

You can never count on FGs ...

 

The only other thing to look at is weather and dome vs. outside... I agree with those comments

 

At least if a team is scoring, you get some PATs and then FGs are gravy

 

This approach worked great this year when choosing Gostkowski

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

I thought I was fine this year when I picked Hartley, thinking NO's offense would get him a lot of opportunities. He's been real up and down this year, mostly down.

[jgcrawfish 232]

I've done OK this year rotating kickers but just have guidelines.

 

- High scoring team with a bad or soft defense

- Playing against a host of teams with weak defenses

- Playing indoors or in good weather climate

 

I had Tynes early in the season but after the Giants started to struggle offensively I bailed and rotated for a while, but have been settled on Shayne Graham for the last few weeks. He's been decent except for the New England game, which was sort of an unexpected blow out. But playing in Reliant stadium gets rid of the elements and he's on a team that scores among upper edge of teams in the league, and their defense stinks right now, which means they need to keep scoring. The other teams in their division stink and all have bad defenses. That's all I got.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

I've done OK this year rotating kickers but just have guidelines.

 

- High scoring team with a bad or soft defense

- Playing against a host of teams with weak defenses

- Playing indoors or in good weather climate

 

I had Tynes early in the season but after the Giants started to struggle offensively I bailed and rotated for a while, but have been settled on Shayne Graham for the last few weeks. He's been decent except for the New England game, which was sort of an unexpected blow out. But playing in Reliant stadium gets rid of the elements and he's on a team that scores among upper edge of teams in the league, and their defense stinks right now, which means they need to keep scoring. The other teams in their division stink and all have bad defenses. That's all I got.

 

Yeah.....this is exactly what I thought I had with Hartley. Not so much.

[tikigods 76]

I haven't read through this whole thread but I'll say this:

 

I always draft dome kickers. Always. The most important part of the season is when the weather is bad.

 

Draft a team with a good offense with a marginally OK run game. They'll get in the redzone but won't be able to punch it in.

 

From a team that will most likely make the playoffs. Nothing more frustrating than a team that goes for it on 4th down all the time because they suck and are not in contention for the playoffs.

[LunaTick 29]

You are looking for a combination of

 

1. accuracy

2. leg strength (especially if bonus pts for length)

3. opportunities to kick FG

4. coaching mentality

5. setting/conditions

6. weekly matchups. this is a big factor for me.

 

In the past there have been a list of guys that exceled at this. Denver had Elam. Baltimore had Stover. Detroit had Hanson.

 

is it a science. I don't think so. Just best guess.

for me that is guessing which team is going to suck in the redzone but good enough to get into fg range. on a team where the coach wants to score anyway they can. (going for it, instead kills fg opps.).

[tanatastic 2,061]

I believe theres a simple science behind kickers. Start kickers on higher scoring teams. why start a kicker on a team that scores 14 pnts a gm? Just go with a top half of the league scorer and hope a guy drops a ball in the RZ.

[n_omarley 11]

So far the most popular opinion is that you should go with a kicker with a high scoring offense that plays in a dome.

 

 

last season, the NFL's #1 scorer (4th highest scorer of all time) was a kicker that played on a low-scoring, defensive minded team that plays in one of the windiest stadiums in the league

[DrG 94]

Dome +

decent offense +

good over under +

good fgm % +

good fga +

 

Is it foolproof, no. Does it help? Yes

[southcarolina 166]

So far the most popular opinion is that you should go with a kicker with a high scoring offense that plays in a dome.

 

 

last season, the NFL's #1 scorer (4th highest scorer of all time) was a kicker that played on a low-scoring, defensive minded team that plays in one of the windiest stadiums in the league

 

 

 

This years #1 kicker in all three of my leagues (Gostkowski) has kicked indoors zero times this season.

[Al4touchdowns1gamebundy 0]

Should I drop tynes for Bryant?

[BufordT 371]

Dome +

decent offense +

good over under +

good fgm % +

good fga +

 

Is it foolproof, no. Does it help? Yes

Garret Hartley?? :unsure:

[browndelivers 7]

From game to game, I don't see much of a strategy. You just never know how an individual game is going to go. The kicker's team could get shut out. Or maybe they score 5 TDs and no field goals. Or maybe they win in a 15-12 field goal fest.

 

But over the course of the season, you want a kicker from a good offense that sometimes struggles in the red zone. Say a team like the Falcons. You know they're good enough to move the ball consistently, but they aren't a constant thread to get in the end zone.

 

Is it ever worth starting a kicker as a hedge against your opponent's position players? For example, in our championship game this weekend, I'm facing a guy who's starting Alfred Morris, Pierre Garcon, and the Redskins D/ST. I've got Shayne Graham at the moment (who ESPN projects to have 7, for what that's worth). But is it smart to pick up Kai Forbath, on the theory that if Morris, Garcon, or even the Redskins D (interception or fumble recovery in Eagles' territory, whatever) has a solid game, at least I can effectively discount any points they get by 1-3 by virtue of the kicker?

[Matt Mueller 146]

Is it ever worth starting a kicker as a hedge against your opponent's position players? For example, in our championship game this weekend, I'm facing a guy who's starting Alfred Morris, Pierre Garcon, and the Redskins D/ST. I've got Shayne Graham at the moment (who ESPN projects to have 7, for what that's worth). But is it smart to pick up Kai Forbath, on the theory that if Morris, Garcon, or even the Redskins D (interception or fumble recovery in Eagles' territory, whatever) has a solid game, at least I can effectively discount any points they get by 1-3 by virtue of the kicker?

 

Make your own decisions but I think moves like this are over thinking it and have more of a chance of back firing than succeeding.

 

If it's a situation where you are starting a WR against your opponents QB, or vice versa, I can see a case being made but kickers are so random that you really want to start the player who you think gives you the chance at the most points.

 

For my $ that would be Graham who scored 17 points last week on 5 fgs and 2 xps and is playing in a dome.