Polls, Predictions

[hoytdwow 202]

Blah, blah poles and whatnot. But realclearpolitics.com averages all of the poles and so is a more valid measure than cherry-picking one or two that show discrete results.

Clinton +7.2 (+1.7)

Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com is pretty much the gold standard, and was nearly 100% accurate in 08 and 12 presidential and congressional elections.

Clinton 87.6% chance to win (+0.3)

Vegas: Clinton -650

Watch this space!

Updatored 19 Oct

[MTSkiBum 1,605]

What does Vegas have as the odds?

[Voltaire 4,618]

What does Vegas have as the odds?

It's illegal to bet on politics in Vegas ... ask what the odds are in London.

[TheNewGirl 1,089]

If they released the tape of Trup talking about grabbing pvssy just a couple of days before the second debate, I'd also bet money that they have something much worse out there in terms of things he's said. There is talk going around that there are tapes of him using the "n" word, among other things.

 

 

He's done. He's been done for a while. Hillary will win.

[posty 2,316]

Hillary will win.

God help us...

[Brad GLuckman 518]

God help us...

Ya, because Trump would be a stable president...

[posty 2,316]

Ya, because Trump would be a stable president...

Didn't say he was...

[peenie 1,703]

I think she will win by a landslide.

I plan on buying this from Victoria's Secret.

Poor BLS. I hope he has lots of money so he can pay all of us.

[Cruzer 1,993]

God help us...

You've been crying this for 8 years now. You seem to be doing okay, the sky hasn't fallen and you've chose to stay and not run to Canada. Relax - the sky isn't really going to fall.

[hoytdwow 202]

What does Vegas have as the odds?

Let me google that for you.

[Kanil 520]

What does Vegas have as the odds?

Clinton -425

Trump +325

Other +1000

[hoytdwow 202]

updatored

[dain11279 934]

Pain

[hoytdwow 202]

Updated!

[crackattack 513]

I think she will win by a landslide.

I plan on buying this from Victoria's Secret.

Poor BLS. I hope he has lots of money so he can pay all of us.

Pictures of you wearing it after the payoff, or it didn't happen

[iam90sbaby 2,158]

If this Evan McMullin guy can win Utah, and Johnson can win New Mexico, things will get very interesting.

[TheNewGirl 1,089]

You've been crying this for 8 years now. You seem to be doing okay, the sky hasn't fallen and you've chose to stay and not run to Canada. Relax - the sky isn't really going to fall.

 

 

I think this is all realtive.

 

Am I doing ok? Sure. Am I better off than I was 8 years ago? Questionable. My taxes are higher, I am getting paid slightly more than I was (merit increases at my job cap out at around 5%, most people only getter 1 to 2% raises a year). My health care plan changed to a new plan where it does cost me more to go to the doctor. Together, hubs and I make a middle class income...which is slowly disappearing due to increases in costs and taxes, healthcare, etc. There is only so much I can be taxed before I can't pay my bills, or make significant lifestyle changes to where I live in a shiiity neighborhood, which means shiiity schools, etc.

 

So while the sky may not have fallen on me, I am not so sure that I am better than 8 years ago.

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,677]

If this Evan McMullin guy can win Utah, and Johnson can win New Mexico, things will get very interesting.

 

It only gets interesting if NM goes to Johnson, if Mcmullin gets Utah Trump is essentially eliminated

[IGotWorms 3,459]

 

 

I think this is all realtive.

 

Am I doing ok? Sure. Am I better off than I was 8 years ago? Questionable. My taxes are higher, I am getting paid slightly more than I was (merit increases at my job cap out at around 5%, most people only getter 1 to 2% raises a year). My health care plan changed to a new plan where it does cost me more to go to the doctor. Together, hubs and I make a middle class income...which is slowly disappearing due to increases in costs and taxes, healthcare, etc. There is only so much I can be taxed before I can't pay my bills, or make significant lifestyle changes to where I live in a shiiity neighborhood, which means shiiity schools, etc.

 

So while the sky may not have fallen on me, I am not so sure that I am better than 8 years ago.

Eight years ago you were fairly close to standing in a bread line like during the Great Depression.

 

So yeah, you are better of now.

[SUXBNME 1,365]

I think this election year more than any other we've seen, the polls are incredibly misleading to what the actual erection results will be.

[jerryskids 5,438]

I think this election year more than any other we've seen, the polls are incredibly misleading to what the actual erection results will be.

A lot of folks think Trump significantly underpolls. I guess we'll see.

[shorepatrol 1,741]

I think this election year more than any other we've seen, the polls are incredibly misleading to what the actual erection results will be.

Absolutely this. The erection results will be nowhere near what these polls are showing IMO

[IGotWorms 3,459]

I think this election year more than any other we've seen, the polls are incredibly misleading to what the actual erection results will be.

The last bastion of hope for the pro-Trump crowd

[jerryskids 5,438]

The last bastion of hope for the pro-Trump crowd

My daughter gets to vote for the first time this year. She said she will probably vote for Clinton because if she voted for Trump and word got out, several of her friends would disown her. I pointed out the hypocrisy of "liberals" suppressing choice, but... anyway, it is difficult for a person, particularly a woman these days, to openly support Trump.

[IGotWorms 3,459]

My daughter gets to vote for the first time this year. She said she will probably vote for Clinton because if she voted for Trump and word got out, several of her friends would disown her. I pointed out the hypocrisy of "liberals" suppressing choice, but... anyway, it is difficult for a person, particularly a woman these days, to openly support Trump.

Wow. Lotta dumb in that post

[IGotWorms 3,459]

I mean who knows who your daughter votes for? Nobody.

 

Then a weird statement about "the hypocrisy of liberals suppressing her choice" which makes no sense and then also implies that conservatives WOULD suppress her choice but liberals are better than that?

 

Then it's hard for someone to openly support trump? Like poor you? I mean maybe it's because you backed the worst candidate in modern history??

 

You're on tilt Jerry. So much it apparently affects your conversations with your daughter

[jerryskids 5,438]

I mean who knows who your daughter votes for? Nobody.

 

Then a weird statement about "the hypocrisy of liberals suppressing her choice" which makes no sense and then also implies that conservatives WOULD suppress her choice but liberals are better than that?

 

Then it's hard for someone to openly support trump? Like poor you? I mean maybe it's because you backed the worst candidate in modern history??

 

You're on tilt Jerry. So much it apparently affects your conversations with your daughter

I explained that to her.

 

That paragraph is nonsensical. Happy Hour?

 

I didn't back Trump. We've been through this. I didn't vote for him and still may not.

 

Also nonsensical. 2 for 1 special?

[Frank M 181]

A lot of folks think Trump significantly underpolls. I guess we'll see.

This sentiment is wishful thinking. Anyone waiting for a Reaganesque comeback in the las month is blind to the fact that he's behind in the polls because he's a reprehensible human being with no idea about how to run a country.

 

There's no vast pool of voters who are too afraid to admit they're voting for Trump.

 

I was listening to talk radio yesterday, and some yahoo called in and cited some website that claimed polling margin of error isn't one or two points, it's more like seven, so Trump and Hillary are really tied in the polls. The host then said "So it could also mean that Hillary could be up by 14 points" to which the caller said "Sure,if you look at it pessimistically."

 

Trump supporters are whistling in the dark with this nonsense. Doesn't surprise me when Trump himself believes instant debate polling on Bretbart over scientific polls done the following day.

 

Stupid follows stupid.

[jerryskids 5,438]

Also I'm trying to explain why Trump may underpoll. And you type nonresponsive drivel. As a card carrying Clinton bot, do you understand what it would be like to be a woman openly supporting Trump? The answer is no you focking lemming. My wife does support him so I have a lot of insight into it.

[Frank M 181]

My daughter gets to vote for the first time this year. She said she will probably vote for Clinton because if she voted for Trump and word got out, several of her friends would disown her. I pointed out the hypocrisy of "liberals" suppressing choice, but... anyway, it is difficult for a person, particularly a woman these days, to openly support Trump.

Great anecdotal story about blaming something that hasn't happened yet on the big bad liberals.

 

I teach my kids to think for themselves and not worry about what others think, not to blame the choices they make on others.

[IGotWorms 3,459]

I explained that to her.

 

That paragraph is nonsensical. Happy Hour?

 

I didn't back Trump. We've been through this. I didn't vote for him and still may not.

 

Also nonsensical. 2 for 1 special?

Yeah I've had a few today. But you've been on tilt for at least a week

[jerryskids 5,438]

Yeah I've had a few today. But you've been on tilt for at least a week

I'm on tilt about the MSM openly working to rig an election. I wish the Republican candidate was worthwhile in which case I would truly be passionate. Anyway, have fun. My plane landed as I typed this, will be joining you soon.

[shorepatrol 1,741]

 

I teach my kids to think for themselves and not worry about what others think, not to blame the choices they make on others.

I thought you were a liberal

[jerryskids 5,438]

Great anecdotal story about blaming something that hasn't happened yet on the big bad liberals.

 

I teach my kids to think for themselves and not worry about what others think, not to blame the choices they make on others.

She is the most independent of my kids so I was surprised by her statement. We had a much longer discussion than I relayed here.

 

Anyway I have no idea what you mean by "hasn't happened yet"

[shorepatrol 1,741]

 

Anyway I have no idea what you mean by "hasn't happened yet"

He waiting for his ballz to drop

[Frank M 181]

She is the most independent of my kids so I was surprised by her statement. We had a much longer discussion than I relayed here.

 

Anyway I have no idea what you mean by "hasn't happened yet"

She hasn't voted yet, yet you blame liberals for a choice she hasn't made yet.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

My daughter gets to vote for the first time this year. She said she will probably vote for Clinton because if she voted for Trump and word got out, several of her friends would disown her. I pointed out the hypocrisy of "liberals" suppressing choice, but... anyway, it is difficult for a person, particularly a woman these days, to openly support Trump.

Yeah. It must be difficult to be know for smashing your d!ck with a brick too, which is a decision about on par with voting trump. I will lose most respect for anyone I know voting trump.

 

It will be interesting. If Hilary supporters think it's in the bag, they may not come out, especially if weather is bad.

 

Trump loons will be there. No matter what. I expect it to be closer than predicted. Which says a lot About the country.

 

:eta: i have lost a lot of respect for gung ho #imwithher Hillary lovers too. Pulling it because it's the only sane choice is one thing. Being happy about it makes you a moron.

[jerryskids 5,438]

Yeah. It must be difficult to be know for smashing your d!ck with a brick too, which is a decision about on par with voting trump. I will lose most respect for anyone I know voting trump.

 

Thanks for proving my point. Frank M, did you read this?

[Frank M 181]

Thanks for proving my point. Frank M, did you read this?

Yes, that sure shows that there is a large contingent of folks who will vote for Trump who are too ashamed to admit it.

 

 

You conservatives know how polls work, right? Just because Trump is a heinous piece of sh1t on a level never before seen in a presidential election doesn't all of a sudden change the basic premise of polling.

 

The "He's so bad that people will be too ashamed to admit to an anonymous online or telephone pollster that they'll vote for him, therefore he's underpolling" idea is laughable. But when your candidate is plumbing the depths of retardery like Trump is, I guess you'll cling to anything.

 

Like blaming the MSM when stories about him groping women come out, even though he's admitted to it on tape.

[jerryskids 5,438]

Yes, that sure shows that there is a large contingent of folks who will vote for Trump who are too ashamed to admit it.

 

 

You conservatives know how polls work, right? Just because Trump is a heinous piece of sh1t on a level never before seen in a presidential election doesn't all of a sudden change the basic premise of polling.

 

The "He's so bad that people will be too ashamed to admit to an anonymous online or telephone pollster that they'll vote for him, therefore he's underpolling" idea is laughable. But when your candidate is plumbing the depths of retardery like Trump is, I guess you'll cling to anything.

 

Like blaming the MSM when stories about him groping women come out, even though he's admitted to it on tape.

Clinton is a more heinous piece of shiot, a criminal. I admit that Trump is an ass, but you keep your head in the sand about Clinton.. The underpolling is similar to W vs. Kerry in 2004; at the end of the day a lot of people didn't trust Kerry in what was considered a wartime situation. In fact I'm confident that I could search for "my mom" posts on that topic, as she was a lifelong democrat but didn't feel that she could vote for Kerry. Anyway, I blame the MSM when stories magically appear about him groping women decades later at the same time that Wikileaks released an email about how Clinton could call Obama a Mooslim American hating coke snorting devil. Got a problem with that?