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IGotWorms

Is it time to get out of the market?

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7 minutes ago, sderk said:

Emotion is their current sales pitch. 

It's the only sales pitch they always have, because it's never logic.

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1 hour ago, naomi said:

people who pulled out in 2008 would have been rewarded over the last few years if they stayed in, right? 

 

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33 minutes ago, lod001 said:

Bush focked everything up when he was in office. The markets lost $ over his 8 years. The retard couldn't see a housing bubble that was the most obvious bubble in the history of bubbles. Worst performance by any president since Nixon. Dude was a worthless pile of sh1t. The only good thing was that it was obvious that it was one of the investments opps of a lifetime if you started pouring $ into the markets in 2009.

 

Technically the democrats took control of both houses of congress in 2006 and then started pushing the idea that "housing is a fundamental right" and promoted handing out home loans to high risk customers.  Although the actual push to give high risk loans to the poor started under Bill Clinton.  The credit crunch was in large part due to home loan defaults.

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4 hours ago, Cdub100 said:

No you can't. Nobody knows if it's a large crash or a short drop. It's silly to think you can beat Wall Street. If you could predict a huge crash and when it would rebound you wouldnt be posting on a low rent message board.

 

You're missing the point. No one (at least I wasn't in the message you quotes) is talking about "beating wall street or predicting crashes and rebounds before they happen.

As the market starts trending down, you get out. I'm not talking about retirement funds.... more so shorter term investments. You're going to lose some current paper gains but you'll lock in a profit and keep your money safe. Broader rebounds are even easier to see happening. You won't buy back in at the exact lows but you can certainly get back in at very big discounts. 

My point was whenever there are topics like this, you can bet on a handful of people who have to chirp "you can't time the market"... as if "timing" the market has to be a perfect call.

If you sell your stocks when the market is down 30% of its total crash and then buy back in when the market is back up 20% of its total rebound...... You know how many people made boat loads buying stock in 2009ish? If only I had more money to play with as a college student.

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11 hours ago, MTSkiBum said:

 

 

We need to raise rates now or else we will not be able to cut rates in the future.

 

As far as getting out of the market, it depends. Retirement savings? Then no leave it in.

 

Short term savings, who knows. We pulled our short term savings out of the market a little while ago, and my wife likes to remind me of this fact. We are not going back in until the crash though.

I agree with all the common sense above. :cheers:

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You guys need to stop talking about the market in this political thread. 

  • Haha 1

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4 hours ago, cbfalcon said:

You guys need to stop talking about the market in this political thread. 

You need to stop posting. Some democrat dumbass might actually think you have something intelligent to say.

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12 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

Can't stand when people take this hard line stance or answer... 

Most people are smart enough to realize you can't time the market perfect.... no shiit.... you CAN however use market trends and current due diligence and get out of stocks before a large crash or even as one is beginning. You can minimize losses to your current net gains and park your money in a safe vehicle until the eventual rebound begins (because it always has and always will).... not only will you save yourself money now , but you'll create a great buying opportunity down the road.

It's not about timing the market as much as it is moving your money in a smart manner when needed.

 

Yeah but even that you can’t really do.

Say when there was that big dip last year you said this is the beginning of the crash, fock it I’m out.

Well then it rebounded and hit new highs. Did you stay out? If so you missed out. Did you get back in? If so you still missed out some and you bought back in at inflated prices.

It just really can’t be done. I believe that, so I don’t know why I started this thread. Guess I’d like to imagine playing it right but  it’s very tough to do and total luck if you actually pull it off.

Look at the DOW on max. Yes huge loss in ‘08 and several other hiccups along the way. But if you stayed in all along you’re doing fantastic.

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Actually the US economy is like a huge oil tanker.  When it starts to turn, the signs are REALLY obvious and it takes a while.  We don't even see signs of the economy turning.

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10 hours ago, riversco said:

Actually the US economy is like a huge oil tanker.  When it starts to turn, the signs are REALLY obvious and it takes a while.  We don't even see signs of the economy turning.

No signs? Let’s start with the inverted yield curve. Or, you know, the fact that the Fed is cutting interest rates 🤦‍♂️

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10 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

 

Yeah but even that you can’t really do.

Say when there was that big dip last year you said this is the beginning of the crash, fock it I’m out.

Well then it rebounded and hit new highs. Did you stay out? If so you missed out. Did you get back in? If so you still missed out some and you bought back in at inflated prices.

It just really can’t be done. I believe that, so I don’t know why I started this thread. Guess I’d like to imagine playing it right but  it’s very tough to do and total luck if you actually pull it off.

Look at the DOW on max. Yes huge loss in ‘08 and several other hiccups along the way. But if you stayed in all along you’re doing fantastic.

I agree, the only way the average joe can make money in the market is over the very long haul.  If you are set on a 10% yearly return, you are bound to lose money.  4-5% can be done.

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People saying that this is not about retirement funds need to consider that some people may be close to retirement.  The closer you get to retirement, the more risk averse you tend to be with those funds. 

If the market goes down - Yes, you can make up money if you will still be putting into your retirement because you are buying at lower costs and eventually the market will raise and you can make up for short-term losses.  However, if you are closer to retirement, you are going to have fewer years to buy in at those lower costs and you will have less time for the market to catch up on any losses.

If we are talking a 20% drop and it is somewhat sustained (5+ years), then it is not a slam dunk to keep your money in the market even with your retirement funds.  You could move those to lower yield, lower risk vehicles to help shield your retirement.

With that said, I can't time the market.  

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12 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

 

Look at the DOW on max. Yes huge loss in ‘08 and several other hiccups along the way. But if you stayed in all along you’re doing fantastic.

Absolutely. Agreed. And if you don't have the stomach to make some moves and take some chances, then just let it be. 

But back then, even if you never got out on the way down, there was still an obvious great opportunity to add to your position in stocks as the rebound began. Rebounds to to happen more slowly than crashes so you could have identified a good time to add more shares as the upswing was already starting.

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3 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

No signs? Let’s start with the inverted yield curve. Or, you know, the fact that the Fed is cutting interest rates 🤦‍♂️

The yield curve is an extremely poor signal.  Even when the yield curve is accurate, it can take up to 2 YEARS from the inversion to show up as a recession.  That means you missed 2 years of rally.  Or if you went short, you will probably lose your entire fortune.

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Also confused with people saying rate cut will be a sign of a crash or big pull back. Generally speaking, rate cuts lead to higher stock moves (In the short term)....and lower costs to borrow money. I don't know if that will hold true this particular time but I certainly don't view it as a sign of an impending crash. Then again Powell usually gets killed when he makes any announcements.

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How can you discuss a rate cut without mentioning Europe and Japan? They are the main reason for this cut, check it out.

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1 hour ago, lod001 said:

Anyone notice that plummet of over 1% in 15 minutes just now?

I was in the pool! :mad:

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2 hours ago, lod001 said:

Anyone notice that plummet of over 1% in 15 minutes just now?

 

Trump did it, according to CNN.   

Trump Ruined Stock Market

 

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1 hour ago, tubby_mcgee said:

 

Trump did it, according to CNN.   

Trump Ruined Stock Market

 

I'm betting that even if the trade ware is resolved, it's too late and any bounce will be sold. The market was needing a catalyst to sell off.

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CNN needs to change it's name to MDC. Spittin' image of lunacy.

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we need to drop below 2950 so the sell off accelerates. Ideally I need 2500 on the S&P.

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I'm betting we see more volatility leading up to the election but timing the market is impossible......stay the course. 

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7 minutes ago, cbfalcon said:

Trade wars are good, and easy to win

Dow down 700 points today and it’s still almost 10,000 points above when Obama left office. That’s gotta hurt. :(

By the way last year in September it hit an all time high and fell over 4,000 from Sep-Dec. Calm your t!ts. dumb people freak out smart people get rich.

If there’s another crash though, make sure you’re invested in some crypto’s. 👌🏻

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I'm hoping its down tomorrow or flat.

I called my Eddy Jones guy. Told him to pull money from checking to fund my 2019 SEP contribution. 

He says "Well, one problem, we pull today, it's in Jones hands tomorrow, so you can't make the buy until tomorrow.  So I had him pull it and put it in my money market account held at Jones. That's where it should have been in the first place. Once in a Jones money market, its available on a moments notice.   I fvcked up there.  Live and learn. 

If its down again tomorrow, I lucked out.

Well, unless its down tomorrow,  and the next and the next and the next and never comes back up.

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This could be an interesting little experiment on timing the market.

Lets say you got out when I posted this. Good for you, you avoided today’s blood bath! Would you now get back in or is there a lot lower for this thing to go?

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Looks like another beatdown tomorrow.  The US declared China a currency manipulator. The talking heads on CNBC said that is bad for the S&P. Futures sh1t the bed. Down another 1.2%.

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48 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

This could be an interesting little experiment on timing the market.

Lets say you got out when I posted this. Good for you, you avoided today’s blood bath! Would you now get back in or is there a lot lower for this thing to go?

 

Maybe I did get out.

So when should I get back in?

 

 

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54 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

This could be an interesting little experiment on timing the market.

Lets say you got out when I posted this. Good for you, you avoided today’s blood bath! Would you now get back in or is there a lot lower for this thing to go?

I’m doing my own experiment. It’s where I got like half out last week, then back all the way in, then most the way out, then back half way in, then put most my money in an ETF that is weighted to perform at 3x inverse of Nasdaq 100. 

Overall, the experiment results are indicating this isn’t optimal, with more recent signs of possible success forthcoming. 

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4 minutes ago, tubby_mcgee said:

 

Maybe I did get out.

So when should I get back in?

 

 

When I tell ya to. ;) 

Actually anytime if you rode it up and are now able to get back in cheaper. Depends how greedy you want to get. However, I think it's possible to go below the Dec. low. I'm thinking, if a recession is threatening, any interest rate cut will produce a bear market rally and will then sell off again heading even lower.

If you were over at the FBgheys stock board, I told people this whole thing was a bear market rally. Some fucktard called guru007 was spouting off 1% from the top. I told him the market has not moved since 1/22/2018. The S&P is now below that level as is the R2k and the DOW. The NAZ is up about 3% from that date. He looks like a total dickhead now....which he obviously is.

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21 minutes ago, cbfalcon said:

I’m doing my own experiment. It’s where I got like half out last week, then back all the way in, then most the way out, then back half way in, then put most my money in an ETF that is weighted to perform at 3x inverse of Nasdaq 100. 

Overall, the experiment results are indicating this isn’t optimal, with more recent signs of possible success forthcoming. 

I'm considering jumping in with 50% for a quick trade. 1 day only as I wait for the bottom. Totally gambling and almost pulled the trigger today but cancelled it. Where I really screwed up was not getting into VUSTX last week. Instead I sit in the money market and watch.

good article from June. https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/bear-market-rallies-can-be-spectacular-14979151

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25 minutes ago, lod001 said:

I'm considering jumping in with 50% for a quick trade. 1 day only as I wait for the bottom. Totally gambling and almost pulled the trigger today but cancelled it. Where I really screwed up was not getting into VUSTX last week. Instead I sit in the money market and watch.

good article from June. https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/bear-market-rallies-can-be-spectacular-14979151

TVIX is up 45% today, 95% since Wednesday. Be right once, and it affords you a handful of misses. Danny Ocean’s speech comes to mind. :thumbsup:

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1 minute ago, cbfalcon said:

TVIX is up 45% today, 95% since Wednesday. Be right once, and it affords you a handful of misses. Danny Ocean’s speech comes to mind. :thumbsup:

And at least tomorrow morning it looks like another big move up.

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2 hours ago, tubby_mcgee said:

 

Maybe I did get out.

So when should I get back in?

 

 

If it was me and I was smart enough to follow up on my own musings, I’d stay out for a while. Think this thing goes down at least a few more thousand before any real rebound.

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