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Who is you favorite breakout player this year?

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2 hours ago, weepaws said:

So you think that Lamb as a shot at scoring more non ppr points than Gallup did last season? 

With the Zeke still running the show , I don’t think Dak is good enough to support three WRs in the top 20. 

I think Dak at best can match his last season ff stats, but he won’t surpass his numbers from last season. 

So unless there is a injury to either Coop or Gallup I see a little bit higher production from Lamb then Cobb has last season, simply based on Lamb is a better player than Cobb. 

Thanks. 

I understand that. It’s certainly logical. I just believe in Lambs talent to exceed expectations. To answer your question- yes I think he will out score Gallup in non PPR 

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52 minutes ago, Little Big Head said:

Never moved the goalposts, and I never said he would be a top 15 WR either. This is you putting words in my mouth. You arbitrarily picked 30 from 44 as his improvement over Cobb in .5 PPR. I don’t necessarily agree that he will be behind Gallup in target share either. If he stays healthy I think he will finish in the neighborhood of 65 1000 8, which isn’t a huge leap in Cobbs reception/yardage total. Not sure where it would rank but to me I would consider that a breakout season. 

It would've ranked around WR 16 in .5ppr last season. So not putting words in your mouth, they are your own, unless if you want to quibble about the difference between 15 and 16. But I agree with you if he finishes as WR 16 that would indeed qualify as a breakout...

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I like the Saints PB rookie kick returner. That dude has some speed and can run precision routes when called on. He's going to have some big games. Like Mecole Hardmanesk. Can't roster him or even start him but he's gong to blow up.

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1 hour ago, Little Big Head said:

I understand that. It’s certainly logical. I just believe in Lambs talent to exceed expectations. To answer your question- yes I think he will out score Gallup in non PPR 

Thank you. 

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It's Damien Harris. Move your draft up now so that he is cheaper. I bought him and drafted him in every dynasty league I could this off season. He was very cheap. There was one person who held out and wouldn't sell him to me for cheap. 

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3 hours ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

It's Damien Harris. Move your draft up now so that he is cheaper. I bought him and drafted him in every dynasty league I could this off season. He was very cheap. There was one person who held out and wouldn't sell him to me for cheap. 

It actually might already be to late. Nice job.

 

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4 hours ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

It's Damien Harris.

Unfortunately, I think Damien Harris is a RB for the Patriots.

'Nuff said.

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2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Unfortunately, I think Damien Harris is a RB for the Patriots.

'Nuff said.

He is the only back who has the ability to be a 3 down back. He won't be getting 300 touches, but he may get enough. I liked him as much as Josh Jacobs from a talent perspective last year. Plus up until the last week or so he was basically going undrafted in redraft

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Michel was a high rb3 last season in non ppr, I don’t see Harris being better, plus Michel is going to return, plus the Pats don’t look at Rbs as a three down rb, they have J White to fill in the passing game role.  

Harris is worthy of a rb4.  

 

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Just for the sake of illustration, I present a twin study--a study of "twin" RBs separated in the pros.

RB1 and RB2, as I shall call them, went to the same college for the same four years.  In their senior season, RB1 was responsible for 1,227 rushing yards on 156 carries (a healthy 7.9 ypc), 96 more yards on 9 receptions, 16 rushing TDs and 1 receiving TD.  RB2 was responsible for 1,345 rushing yards on 223 carries (a solid 6.0 ypc), 30 more yards on 4 receptions, 15 rushing TDs and 0 receiving TDs.

After their senior season, both were first round draft picks the next year; RB1 going to a perennial contender, and RB2 going to a perennial football wasteland (in both fantasy and real life).

Which one became the fantasy stud?

The one that did NOT go to New England, of course--Nick Chubb (RB2) has outperformed his Georgia teammate Sony Michel (RB1) thus far.

New England is not the place you want to be if you're a RB, and not the corps you want to draft from if you're a fantasy owner.

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On 8/22/2020 at 1:03 PM, jrokh said:

That’s what you said about McLauren last year after he had those few really good games, and while he was still good he was nowhere near OBJ rookie year. I would find a more realistic comparison. Or maybe on the 10th try you’ll finally hit on one :)

Quit slarvin' on the Giants. Aren't you the one who said Eli will be in the HOF? The only way he gets in the HOF is if he is voted most likely to be on a team too long.

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12 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Just for the sake of illustration, I present a twin study--a study of "twin" RBs separated in the pros.

RB1 and RB2, as I shall call them, went to the same college for the same four years.  In their senior season, RB1 was responsible for 1,227 rushing yards on 156 carries (a healthy 7.9 ypc), 96 more yards on 9 receptions, 16 rushing TDs and 1 receiving TD.  RB2 was responsible for 1,345 rushing yards on 223 carries (a solid 6.0 ypc), 30 more yards on 4 receptions, 15 rushing TDs and 0 receiving TDs.

After their senior season, both were first round draft picks the next year; RB1 going to a perennial contender, and RB2 going to a perennial football wasteland (in both fantasy and real life).

Which one became the fantasy stud?

The one that did NOT go to New England, of course--Nick Chubb (RB2) has outperformed his Georgia teammate Sony Michel (RB1) thus far.

New England is not the place you want to be if you're a RB, and not the corps you want to draft from if you're a fantasy owner.

Yes the Patriots will never be a mecca for fantasy rb1 production, but James white has been really good in spurts over the last few years. If Damien Harris can do it all, which Michel isn't a great receiver and while isn't a great between the tackles runner, why not make the defense guess more on which play they are running. Michel saw a huge dip in ypc last year. Could that be because of how predictable the game plan was with him in there? 

What if Harris does really well while Michel is out? Now the Pat's want to put a less efficient running back in there constantly just because Bill likes rbbc? I don't think he is that success adverse just for the sake of maintaining rbbc. I believe the Pat's thought they were getting a high end back in Michel, but they were wrong. Either Sony isn't as good as people had thought, or the constantly lower body injuries have sapped him of his explosiveness

Even Doug Pederson abandoned his rbbc once he was down to the one back who was obviously better than the rest.

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I don’t think the Pats where wrong about Michel. 

His first season he avg 16 att per game and avg 4.5 yards per game.  

Last season the pats offense as a unit seemed to be having problems , their defense carried that team last season , and more so early during last season.  

Michel is a darn good rb, his last four games of last seasons , he avg 18 rush att and avg 4.4 per rush. That’s darn good. 

Miller and Harris and Burkhead should be able to carry the load, and J White should resume is role as the third down rb. 

And then Michel shall return . 

His last four games he and the Chubb each scored 40 non ppr ff points. 

 

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Mostert RB1 potential available 5th-7th drafting him everywhere

Slayton WR1 skill set.   Drafting him everywhere late.  I have finishing top 10

Thielen.... Not a huge breakout but could lead the league in receptions 

Rodgers-  10-12 Qb off the board.   No girlfriend,  rookie QB drafted = big bounce back 30 plus TD year 

 

 

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Okay, I"ll chime in with my picks. 

QB  -- Joe Burrow.   The kid has poise beyond his years, having had the greatest collegiate QB season ever.   He'll have a 4000-yard plus passing season in his first year, with a motivated and healthy (for now)  A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, John Ross and Joe Mixon from the backfield. 

RB - Jonathan Taylor.    Loved this guy dominating in Wisconsin.   Prototypical bruising RB with great talent (gotta control the fumbling though).   Nyheim Hines will probably dominate passing downs with Rivers,  but Taylor should get some run their also.   Taylor will thrive running behind arguably the league's best offensive line.  

WR -  Will Fuller.    This is the year Will Fuller stays healthy for at least 14 games.  Fuller has consistently demonstrated great chemistry with DeShaun Watson, and Brandin Cooks will take away a lot of double coverage from Fuller.     DEEP Sleeper at WR:   Mecole Hardman.   I was going to say Preston Williams but I will go with Hardman.  Mecole may be the one true WR handcuff in Fantasy Football, with 4.33 wheels and a similar skillset to Tyreek Hill.   If Hill goes down for extended time,   Hardman can be a league-winner. 

TE:   Hayden Hurst.   Matt Ryan has publicly stated that Hurst is the most athletic TE that he's ever worked with;  impressive considering Ryan did have a short run with Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez.   With Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper gone,  Hurst will demonstrate why the Ravens spent a first round pick on him.    

 

 

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5 minutes ago, dcgangstas said:

TE:   Hayden Hurst.   Matt Ryan has publicly stated that Hurst is the most athletic TE that he's ever worked with;  impressive considering Ryan did have a short run with Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez.   With Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper gone,  Hurst will demonstrate why the Ravens spent a first round pick on him.    

All you have to say is that Dirk Koetter is his O.C.  Dirk Koetter TEs are always among the league leaders--even Marcedes Lewis went to the Pro Bowl when Koetter was with the Jags.

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HR3. If the raiders use him in the slot he would be a steal at where is is being drafted. 

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I like Fuller this year.

I think cam Newton is well worth taking.

 I actually like David Johnson this year too. 

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I postted RB Jones to break out but with Fournette now with the Bucs might be hard for him to get production.

Another player though I've targeted and look for a big year is WR MICHAEL PITTMAN. Liked this guys since the draft and with Rivers tossing the rock Pittman will get his shots to come up big. I think it's quite possible the rookie gets 800-1000 yds and 6-8 tds. Rookie WR's are  a crapshoot but I'm telling you this guy is gonna be pretty good.

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2 hours ago, DocNiner said:

I postted RB Jones to break out but with Fournette now with the Bucs might be hard for him to get production.

Another player though I've targeted and look for a big year is WR MICHAEL PITTMAN. Liked this guys since the draft and with Rivers tossing the rock Pittman will get his shots to come up big. I think it's quite possible the rookie gets 800-1000 yds and 6-8 tds. Rookie WR's are  a crapshoot but I'm telling you this guy is gonna be pretty good.

Could post the most ff points by a rookie wr.  

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QB: Rivers, Ind: it's been shown there is a correlation between QB play and an O-line that can block.

RB: Zack Moss, Buf: tough guy on a cold-weather team - with one small fumbler to beat out.

WR: Paris Campbell, Ind: fast as hell and can play, see Rivers above, cool first namejust needs someone to drive him to the stadium.

TE: Hooper: stud who might be lost in the Chubb/KHunt/OBJ/Baker shine - can you believe Cleveland's 2 back are named Chubb and KHunt?).

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Teddy Bridgewater is in a great position to have a stellar year.  Top RB, good WRs, poor defense.   

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1 hour ago, Sosinski said:

Teddy Bridgewater is in a great position to have a stellar year.  Top RB, good WRs, poor defense.   

Didn't Kyle Allen have that same recipe for success last year, plus Greg Olsen?

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QB - T Brady - he went to Tampa to put up numbers and improve on his legacy.  He has the best weapons he has ever had - Evans/Godwin/Gronk along w OJ and Brate.  Along w Tampa's leaky passing D it's looking like weekly shootouts to me.  Honorable mention Burrow.

WR - don't know if he qualifies but C Kupp seems overlooked to me.  Did decent last year and now they took away B Cooks and TD hog Gurley.  I'm looking for them to do more passing TDs and that bodes well for Kupp. 

TE - J Cook (if he qualifies).  After Brees came back from injury the last 8 games Cook had over 500 yards and 7 TDs.  In standard that was over 12 fpg's (where Kelce was around 10).  The Saints/Brees have a history of using TEs (Graham/Colston), paid big bucks to lure Cook  from Oakland, and did well last year.  I think they'll want to continue using Cook.

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5 hours ago, Sosinski said:

Teddy Bridgewater is in a great position to have a stellar year.  Top RB, good WRs, poor defense.   

How about his own ability to play Qb? 

Thats what I question.  

As posted above K Allen had the same situation, and wasn’t even worth of a qb2 in ff. 

 

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12 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

QB - T Brady - he went to Tampa to put up numbers and improve on his legacy.  He has the best weapons he has ever had - Evans/Godwin/Gronk along w OJ and Brate.  Along w Tampa's leaky passing D it's looking like weekly shootouts to me.  Honorable mention Burrow.

WR - don't know if he qualifies but C Kupp seems overlooked to me.  Did decent last year and now they took away B Cooks and TD hog Gurley.  I'm looking for them to do more passing TDs and that bodes well for Kupp. 

TE - J Cook (if he qualifies).  After Brees came back from injury the last 8 games Cook had over 500 yards and 7 TDs.  In standard that was over 12 fpg's (where Kelce was around 10).  The Saints/Brees have a history of using TEs (Graham/Colston), paid big bucks to lure Cook  from Oakland, and did well last year.  I think they'll want to continue using Cook.

Breakout candidates, and you have guys who have all finished in the top of their positions before. Let's get some lesser known names in this thread

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6 hours ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

Breakout candidates, and you have guys who have all finished in the top of their positions before. Let's get some lesser known names in this thread

C'mon I gave qualifiers, just pass it by if it doesn't interest you.  In redraft leagues the Teddy Bridgewaters of the world are irrelevant.  Tom Brady on the other hand could make a difference.

In redraft I think RB L Fournette could break out of his RB2/RB3 status into the ranks of RB1 for the last 2/3's of the season.   Great value in the 5th or 6th, wish I had him.

 

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For Rookies I like Pittman Jr., Rivers always liked to exploit TEs and big WRs down field... If he and Rivers get on the same page he could have a moster 2nd half. (I also like Hilton to have a solid season.

Then for "bounce-back" I like Cooks, things are a little less crowded in Hou, and if he can stay on the field I think he will steal some of Fuller's thunder. Something like 1100 yards and 7TDs is well within his reach

 

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3 minutes ago, rallo said:

For Rookies I like Pittman Jr., Rivers always liked to exploit TEs and big WRs down field... If he and Rivers get on the same page he could have a moster 2nd half. (I also like Hilton to have a solid season.

Then for "bounce-back" I like Cooks, things are a little less crowded in Hou, and if he can stay on the field I think he will steal some of Fuller's thunder. Something like 1100 yards and 7TDs is well within his reach

 

I think it's a good idea to get some shares of the HOU WRs but no idea who to take out of Fuller, Cooks and Stills based on drafts. Cooks is out because he gets drafted too high and he is a concussion waiting to happen. Fuller is a good bet to do well when he can stay on the field. Stills can be had off the waiver, he could have value as soon as one of the top two gets hurt which is a given. 

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1 hour ago, Einstein's Dog said:

C'mon I gave qualifiers, just pass it by if it doesn't interest you.  In redraft leagues the Teddy Bridgewaters of the world are irrelevant.  Tom Brady on the other hand could make a difference.

In redraft I think RB L Fournette could break out of his RB2/RB3 status into the ranks of RB1 for the last 2/3's of the season.   Great value in the 5th or 6th, wish I had him.

 

I appreciate the reasons you gave for your guys, and drafting players who will finish better than their draft position is the name of the game. I also meant to include that a lot if other posts were doing something similar. Im looking for this year's Chark, Sutton, waller etc

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On 9/3/2020 at 4:05 PM, weepaws said:

Could post the most ff points by a rookie wr.  

I totally agree. With Rivers propensity to throw to big WR's and Pittman's size in the red zone I don't think it's out of the question that he posts better numbers than AJ Brown did last year. Even with Hilton being the #1 guy it could be a possibilty that Pittman posts the best numbers out the receiving corps of the Colts. I had a real good gut feeling about him when he got drafted. Even felt better about him besting all the rooks drafted before him. He has opportunity, good running game and O-line, and yes, even a good QB in Rivers even if he is turnover prone. All said I believe Pittman will be Rivers top guy when the season's over.

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14 minutes ago, DocNiner said:

I totally agree. With Rivers propensity to throw to big WR's and Pittman's size in the red zone I don't think it's out of the question that he posts better numbers than AJ Brown did last year. Even with Hilton being the #1 guy it could be a possibilty that Pittman posts the best numbers out the receiving corps of the Colts. I had a real good gut feeling about him when he got drafted. Even felt better about him besting all the rooks drafted before him. He has opportunity, good running game and O-line, and yes, even a good QB in Rivers even if he is turnover prone. All said I believe Pittman will be Rivers top guy when the season's over.

Agreed.  

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10 minutes ago, snatchit said:

I drafted Campbell, I like him better 

I like Campbell also, I think in a ppr I might prefer Campbell, but in a non ppr I like Pittman, I think he will lead the Colts WRs in tds. M

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14 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I like Campbell also, I think in a ppr I might prefer Campbell, but in a non ppr I like Pittman, I think he will lead the Colts WRs in tds. M

agreed

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TE Chris Herndon

If he stays healthy top 5 at the position. Freak talent that came out strong at the end of his rookie year. Suspension and injuries got in the way last year. Been favorite target for Darnold all of camp 

 

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On 9/7/2020 at 11:57 AM, Phil Simms 11 said:

I think it's a good idea to get some shares of the HOU WRs but no idea who to take out of Fuller, Cooks and Stills based on drafts. Cooks is out because he gets drafted too high and he is a concussion waiting to happen. Fuller is a good bet to do well when he can stay on the field. Stills can be had off the waiver, he could have value as soon as one of the top two gets hurt which is a given. 

Your theory is right on cue, with Cooks already nursing a quad injruy... ugh

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Just now, rallo said:

Your theory is right on cue, with Cooks already nursing a quad injruy... ugh

Another reason why, DJ might be used more often then most think in the passing game. 

Fuller has a problem staying on the field, Stills isn’t a wr1 , and Cooks who hasn’t missed many games, now seems to be on course to do so.  

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