Trump talk only- no Eagles talk allowed (Steelers talk is OK though)

[Strike 5,340]

17 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Each morning (assuming I have time) I look up polling and post the latest ones that strike me as important. Sometimes they favor Trump like yesterday. Mostly they favor Harris. That’s because Harris is winning. If you think that’s cherry picking oh well. 

Bullsh*t.  The ones you're ignoring are just as important as the ones you post.  They're from reputable organizations that do not lean right.  Yet you ignore them.  I wonder why................

[posty 2,654]

1 minute ago, Engorgeous George said:

One which polls the immediate surroundings of the castle.

Does this include White Castles?

[Engorgeous George 2,239]

1 minute ago, posty said:

Does this include White Castles?

Yes.  You get a free slider if you respond to the polling questions.

[Strike 5,340]

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris

Yeah, Harris is leading @The Real timschochet

[Horseman 2,433]

8 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Wow, based on aggregate polling 538 has Kackala's chances of winning down to 53% now (was 55% yesterday and 60% last week).  Momentum!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

@The Real timschochet tried to lie to us saying it was 95% upthread.

It's also interesting to note that out of all the simulations ran Trump got the 4 highest electoral college votes.  The highest being 312. 

That speaks to the momentum that Real Tim has zero clue about. 

Reminder: This analysis had Biden winning 90% of the time and he ended up winning by just 40,000 votes.  The analysis had Hillary winning 70% of the time in 2016 and she got rocked.

[Horseman 2,433]

9 minutes ago, Strike said:

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris

Yep.  Those charts show the same thing 538s do, even though they are a point different, Trump has had the momentum since September 18th.  Harris needs to do something to change that or she's cooked.  

[Strike 5,340]

1 minute ago, Horseman said:

Yep.  Those charts show the same thing 538s do, even though they are a point different, Trump has had the momentum since September 18th.  Harris needs to do something to change that or she's cooked.  

But @The Real timschochet  thinks Kamalatoe is in the driver's seat, and wants us to believe he's a serious poster.

[HotRod 69]

It's over.  Trump won.

[posty 2,654]

1 minute ago, HotRod said:

It's over.  Trump won.

So no need for the people that like Harris to go out and vote… 

[avoiding injuries 1,550]

Trump up 10 on Polymarket. Highest I’ve seen. 

[Horseman 2,433]

Yep  Betting markets moved again.  Trump 55%  Kackala 45%

 

[RLLD 4,180]

I would not presume to trust ANY of these prognostications.

This is a close race, will likely boil down to two or three states and whether nor not people have had their fill of the horrid policies Democrats have used to harm them.

[jonmx 2,425]

All the latest polling including the internals from the Harris campaign show Trump is +3 in PA, MI, and WI.   It is not looking good in the Rust Belt for Kamala and even worse in the Sun Belt.  

Good luck with your phoney headlines.   It is the best you can do since all your news sources are just deep state propaganda.  

[HotRod 69]

Trump has the blue wall by 4 or 5 points and that's all that matters.

[jonmx 2,425]

1 minute ago, RLLD said:

I would not presume to trust ANY of these prognostications.

This is a close race, will likely boil down to two or three states and whether nor not people have had their fill of the horrid policies Democrats have used to harm them.

I know you like to play the middle, but this is the third presidential election in a row where the pre-election polling is understating Trump by about 4 points.  This election is not that close unless some catastrophic event throws a wrench into everything.   I would not put it past these bastards to start WWIII to stop Trump from winning. 

[Sean Mooney 1,956]

2 minutes ago, jonmx said:

I know you like to play the middle, but this is the third presidential election in a row where the pre-election polling is understating Trump by about 4 points.  This election is not that close unless some catastrophic event throws a wrench into everything.   I would not put it past these bastards to start WWIII to stop Trump from winning. 

 

So you already know what the final numbers will be?

Can you tell us the lottery numbers for the next week or so?

[Sean Mooney 1,956]

For a goofy thread about polls there sure seem to be a lot of people getting triggered over it....

[avoiding injuries 1,550]

With Trump up bigly, the triggered seem to be on the left. 

[RLLD 4,180]

3 minutes ago, jonmx said:

I know you like to play the middle, but this is the third presidential election in a row where the pre-election polling is understating Trump by about 4 points.  This election is not that close unless some catastrophic event throws a wrench into everything.   I would not put it past these bastards to start WWIII to stop Trump from winning. 

I do not "play the middle".  I use simple common sense backed by research.   Sometimes we might agree, and sometimes we might disagree, that is fine. I am not a liberal, so when we disagree I wont attack you personally.....that might be the most important distinction.

Historically, Trump outperforms his polling by maybe 3 points.  So there is some merit to suggest he might actually be doing better......but I hesitate to trust polling, in any form.

Harris is perhaps even a worse candidate that Biden was.  At least he can point to age, and perhaps dementia, as the reason for him being utterly unable to meet the needs of his role.....what is Harris's excuse?  I hope people see all of it in totality.

The lawfare to take out Trump, the media and their extravagant bias, the incessant lying from Democrats and the obvious disparity in their concern for their own behaviors that they so happily apply to others.....and then this move to eliminate Biden and throw Harris into it......Harris.....who is perhaps the MOST unqualified person to ever hold office

[jonmx 2,425]

4 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

 

So you already know what the final numbers will be?

Can you tell us the lottery numbers for the next week or so?

Lottery is completely random.  So no, for the lottery I can not help.  Elections can be judged based on quality of data.   It is influenced by external factors, but every indicator favors Trump.  

- Registration is favor Trump

- Party Identification is favoring Trump. 

- Economic confidence is favoring Trump.  

- World uncertainty and who is viewed as better capable of handling it favors Trump.

If you want to believe moronic polling which shows Kamala +16 with dependants, just to get an even race, good luck with that.  The polling which shows the race is close or that Kamala is winning is complete trash which intentionally over samples Democrats.  

[Mark Davis 370]

2 hours ago, The Real timschochet said:

Harris takes 4 point national lead in YouGov poll this morning: 

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4926117-harris-leads-trump-economist-yougov-poll/amp/

According to Nate Silver, a 4 point national lead gives Harris a 95%+ chance of winning the election. 

I think 4 she wins, 3 is iffy likely a degree of is it 3.4 or 2.5, 2 or less is Trump. I’m not sure where the line is and how much shifts in states already decided will change that overall number. While Trump has taken the slight lead in all the upper Midwest state betting markets, they are all correlated so it’s not like she has to win 3 individual coin flips to win them all. If the vote moves 2 points in one, it likely lock steps in the others pretty closely. I’ll be interested to see polling in the next week or so to see if what’s being discussed online comes to pass on the shifts. Not just in the rust belt but in NC and GA. Also I’d guess NC has gotten much harder to poll now. 

[Beaker15 236]

Poor Tim, getting owned yet again.

[The Real timschochet 6,543]

2 hours ago, Strike said:

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris

Yeah, Harris is leading @The Real timschochet

I used 538: 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/pennsylvania/

Aggregate for Pennsylvania is Kamala by 1. Vast majority of polls has Kamala ahead. 
So I don’t know what to tell you. She’s ahead. She’s winning. If these numbers hold she win the election. Sorry to disappoint you guys. 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,137]

National polls don’t matter. HTH. 

[Mike Honcho 5,230]

I did a "Moat" poll and the top answer is crocodiles with piranha coming in a distant second. 

[Horseman 2,433]

13 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

I used 538: 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/pennsylvania/

Aggregate for Pennsylvania is Kamala by 1. Vast majority of polls has Kamala ahead. 
So I don’t know what to tell you. She’s ahead. She’s winning. If these numbers hold she win the election. Sorry to disappoint you guys. 

538 had Hillary and Biden both to win PA by 5+ points.  How'd that turn out?

[Hardcore troubadour 15,137]

16 minutes ago, Mike Honcho said:

I did a "Moat" poll and the top answer is crocodiles with piranha coming in a distant second. 

I’ll take sharks with fricken lasers. 

[Horseman 2,433]

 

 

[jonmx 2,425]

I can't wait to see the excuses for when a Harris +4 prediction ends in a Trump +2 win.   Their own numbers show they are lying.  Taking 20 piles of crap and averaging them still makes them total crap.  Statistically, it should be 1000 to 1 these polls are all that far off.   But yet they will be and the bootlicking idiots will continue to believe them.  

[zsasz 366]

17 minutes ago, jonmx said:

I can't wait to see the excuses for when a Harris +4 prediction ends in a Trump +2 win.   Their own numbers show they are lying.  Taking 20 piles of crap and averaging them still makes them total crap.  Statistically, it should be 1000 to 1 these polls are all that far off.   But yet they will be and the bootlicking idiots will continue to believe them.  

Your adoration for these polls are setting you to be the perfect martyr and reinforce your insane belief in election rigging when he loses. "hOw CaN He LoSE....My PoLlZ HaD Him UP!!!@!!"  The perfect situation for the MAGA conspiracy head.  

[MDC 7,225]

30 minutes ago, zsasz said:

Your adoration for these polls are setting you to be the perfect martyr and reinforce your insane belief in election rigging when he loses. "hOw CaN He LoSE....My PoLlZ HaD Him UP!!!@!!"  The perfect situation for the MAGA conspiracy head.  

There was never any doubt. Win or lose Don will cry muh fraud. It’s what he does.

[OldMaid 2,130]

32 minutes ago, zsasz said:

Your adoration for these polls are setting you to be the perfect martyr and reinforce your insane belief in election rigging when he loses. "hOw CaN He LoSE....My PoLlZ HaD Him UP!!!@!!"  The perfect situation for the MAGA conspiracy head.  

I’m bringing a bucket in here on election night. A lot of heads are going to explode.

[Beaker15 236]

13 minutes ago, OldMaid said:

I’m bringing a bucket in here on election night. A lot of heads are going to explode.

You are going to need it.  You will be the one blindsided book it.

[Reality 3,121]

33 minutes ago, MDC said:

There was never any doubt. Win or lose Don will cry muh fraud. It’s what he does.

So, the same as Dems in 2016. Very astute.

[OldMaid 2,130]

37 minutes ago, Beaker15 said:

You are going to need it.  You will be the one blindsided book it.

I’ll make sure to collect yours first.

[WhiteWonder 2,708]

drain the moat!

[thegeneral 3,067]

24 minutes ago, Reality said:

So, the same as Dems in 2016. Very astute.

Don cried that he really won the popular vote and appointed a commission to find the fraud. 

[MDC 7,225]

26 minutes ago, Reality said:

So, the same as Dems in 2016. Very astute.

Good point: Don’s sobbing is a lot like Hillary’s, only more undignified and womanly with lots more court cases and it goes on for a decade.

Muh fraud!  

[jerryskids 6,662]

7 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

drain the moat!

I wonder if Tim Trebuchet will ever fix the error?  

[Hardcore troubadour 15,137]

10 minutes ago, MDC said:

Good point: Don’s sobbing is a lot like Hillary’s, only more undignified and womanly with lots more court cases and it goes on for a decade.

Muh fraud!  

  not voting for Kamala.