Kilroy - I just placed a few bets for week 6 and I didn't care who the teams were, I was focused on the numbers. At bovada right now we have the following:
Bears +2.5
Texans +1.5
Redskins +2.5
Chargers +1.5
The two numbers we are worried about are 3 and 7 - the most common point differentials in all NFL football games going back to 1995 . If I tease the teams above by 6 points I am able to push past both of those numbers so I placed 6 - two team teasers. I don't care who they are playing or where they are playing. Road teams do usually do better and I usually leave out teams where the game has a total of 50 or more, but I took the Chargers anyways. They aren't going to hit every time, but they will be long run profitable. If you're serious and want to churn a profit you need to get into the mindset that this is a marathon, not a sprint. Ultimately, you want to get to props because picking side and totals on the NFL is a suckers game. Here are my numbers for this season so far. I'm a little disappointed I'm at 54, because I prefer to be around 60, but it is what it is and good luck finding someone that can beat me at props. (I did have a mentor that used to post here and he can smoke me, but thats beside the point). I'm arrogant about it and do apologize. Do some wonging and make some money and then we can dive into the prop process.
Week 1: 11-7
Week 2: 7-14
Week 3: 20-11
Week 4:14-13
Week 5: 16-12
Season to date: 68-57 (.544)