Doug Martin will bust this year

[heavy-set 39]

go ahead, flame me, but iam calling it now. dont draft him. he will bust

 

his stats are skewed by 1 monster game, but in reality, wasnt that great last year.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/14885/doug-martin

[WhiteWonder 2,223]

you're going to get flamed hard but I lower on Martin than most.

 

i don't think he will be a bust. anyone with his skill set (ie able to catch the ball) and opportunity is going to produce but i absolutely agree, his numbers last year are pretty heavily skewed by 1 or 2 monster games. Specifically the back to back vikings and raiders game. i highlight RAIDERS. In those two games he totaled 486 combined yards and 6 scores with 7 receptions. That's 91.6 fantasy points in PPR formats (over 45ppg) . He finished the year with 311.6 for a 19.5 average. Meaning his other 14 games was an average of 15.7

 

i'd still draft him in the first round, im just not as high on him as most

[We Tigers 71]

If he's going to bust, it's not for that reason. Take that game out and he still put up 1600 yards and 8 TDs in 15 games, scoring under 10 fantasy points (standard scoring) just 4 times. Really good player who could backslide for several reasons, but I don't think his distribution is that different from all the other top backs.

[heavy-set 39]

If he's going to bust, it's not for that reason. Take that game out and he still put up 1600 yards and 8 TDs in 15 games, scoring under 10 fantasy points (standard scoring) just 4 times. Really good player who could backslide for several reasons, but I don't think his distribution is that different from all the other top backs.

he had a couple other big games too.

 

before someone posts that if you took all the good games from the other backs, they would bust too, it just seems different with martin.

i have seen him going as high as #2 overall in some places.

 

anyways, when he busts, iam editing this tread title to include, he is who i thought he was.

[PackYourNut 47]

His stats last year were as a rookie, behind a make shift line that lost it's best run blocker, while competing for carries the first few games.

 

This year is totally different and IMO, is one of the lowest risk players you can choose.

 

1. He has no competition for carries

2. He plays on an offense who will run the ball consitently

3. Has WR's to keep the D honest

4. Gets 2 pro bowl starting linemen back

5. Is in better shape than last year, by all reports

6. He's a 3 down back

7. It's his second year

 

I have no problem taking him at 2... And while a back like Charles may score more than him if he stays healthy, if you want solid production with low risk with your first pick, I like Martin.

[IGotWorms 3,439]

His stats last year were as a rookie, behind a make shift line that lost it's best run blocker, while competing for carries the first few games.

 

This year is totally different and IMO, is one of the lowest risk players you can choose.

 

1. He has no competition for carries

2. He plays on an offense who will run the ball consitently

3. Has WR's to keep the D honest

4. Gets 2 pro bowl starting linemen back

5. Is in better shape than last year, by all reports

6. He's a 3 down back

7. It's his second year

 

I have no problem taking him at 2... And while a back like Charles may score more than him if he stays healthy, if you want solid production with low risk with your first pick, I like Martin.

[Serpent 51]

I have a general rule that I never draft any rookie after his breakout year the next year within the first 2 rounds, mostly applied to QB and RB because you're probably not going to consider another position that early. I want to see at least 2 years of production, or a few years in the league of increasing production to make me comfortable with that high pick.

 

You can call it the Steve Slaton rule if you're the type of person that likes to name rules. It has also saved me from Forte, Cam Newton, Ryan Mathews and I'm sure many others.

[heavy-set 39]

I have a general rule that I never draft any rookie after his breakout year the next year within the first 2 rounds, mostly applied to QB and RB because you're probably not going to consider another position that early. I want to see at least 2 years of production, or a few years in the league of increasing production to make me comfortable with that high pick.

 

You can call it the Steve Slaton rule if you're the type of person that likes to name rules. It has also saved me from Forte, Cam Newton, Ryan Mathews and I'm sure many others.

this is the way I think. why draft him so high with a limited body of work when other more veteran players with longer track records and similar stats can be had.

 

of course I thought the same way back in the Priest Holmes days

[BobSanders_33 127]

His stats last year were as a rookie, behind a make shift line that lost it's best run blocker, while competing for carries the first few games.

 

This year is totally different and IMO, is one of the lowest risk players you can choose.

 

1. He has no competition for carries

2. He plays on an offense who will run the ball consitently

3. Has WR's to keep the D honest

4. Gets 2 pro bowl starting linemen back

5. Is in better shape than last year, by all reports

6. He's a 3 down back

7. It's his second year

 

I have no problem taking him at 2... And while a back like Charles may score more than him if he stays healthy, if you want solid production with low risk with your first pick, I like Martin.

I'm going to be selecting Martin for the reasons posted above. Getting Nicks and Joeseph back on the OL should be huge.

[kmbryant09 1]

Doug Martin has 100+ total yards or 1+ TD in 11 of his 16 games - and he narrowly missed a 12th when he had 98 combined yards.

 

Yeah, he had 1 monster game, but take that away and he still put up 1,600 total yards and 8 TD's (in 15 games).

 

He may bust (injury, setback, sh!tty offense), but it won't be because he wasn't producing consistently last season.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,653]

you're going to get flamed hard but I lower on Martin than most.

 

i don't think he will be a bust. anyone with his skill set (ie able to catch the ball) and opportunity is going to produce but i absolutely agree, his numbers last year are pretty heavily skewed by 1 or 2 monster games. Specifically the back to back vikings and raiders game. i highlight RAIDERS. In those two games he totaled 486 combined yards and 6 scores with 7 receptions. That's 91.6 fantasy points in PPR formats (over 45ppg) . He finished the year with 311.6 for a 19.5 average. Meaning his other 14 games was an average of 15.7

 

i'd still draft him in the first round, im just not as high on him as most

Youre more of a MJD guy arent you?

[Cstriker 2]

Yea, take away all the big games. Because running backs are not supposed to run wild against bad defenses. Martin absolutely has the talent. His chances of putting up last years numbers are just as good as anyone else's. For example do you expect ADP will put up 2k rushing yards again? If not , is he a bust?

[nobody 2,109]

I'm surprised no one is balking at his touches. Didn't he have about 340 carries an another 40 catches. I thought getting that many touches was supposed to be the kiss of death

[Maulers1973 117]

His stats last year were as a rookie, behind a make shift line that lost it's best run blocker, while competing for carries the first few games.

 

This year is totally different and IMO, is one of the lowest risk players you can choose.

 

1. He has no competition for carries

2. He plays on an offense who will run the ball consitently

3. Has WR's to keep the D honest

4. Gets 2 pro bowl starting linemen back

5. Is in better shape than last year, by all reports

6. He's a 3 down back

7. It's his second year

 

I have no problem taking him at 2... And while a back like Charles may score more than him if he stays healthy, if you want solid production with low risk with your first pick, I like Martin.

Yeah that!

 

Trust me, I am a big show me you can do it again guy. However, young running backs that get his kind of opportunity are not a plenty in today's NFL. I like his chances of duplicating his rookie success far better than Alfred Morris. I don't think Washington has a true deep threat WR to keep defenses honest, and I fear that RGIII post injury will have a major sophmore slump. All that adds up to Morris is your big slipper this year. Having said that, I don't think Morris will bust. Though, if you're looking for a hot RB sliding down in production I would tab him rather than Martin.

[stonewall 647]

Doug Martin will bust this year

 

 

Cara? Is that you??

[Mike FF Today 611]

but in reality, wasnt that great last year.

 

 

I would agree with what kmbryant09 and others have said and would take issue with your quote above. He finished 3rd in standard scoring leagues, 2nd in PPR leagues and ranked 3rd in consistency among running backs. Will he bust in 2013? Maybe, but the if you're a betting man, the positives far outweigh the negatives... and he was great last year.

[Matt Mueller 146]

He won't bust for fantasy...as he is in one of the best situations in the league...but I honestly wasn't super impressed with him during the games I watched.

 

Not that he wasn't an NFL quality RB...I was just never like 'wow damn look at that.'

[Frozenbeernuts 1,653]

Yeah that!

 

Trust me, I am a big show me you can do it again guy. However, young running backs that get his kind of opportunity are not a plenty in today's NFL. I like his chances of duplicating his rookie success far better than Alfred Morris. I don't think Washington has a true deep threat WR to keep defenses honest, and I fear that RGIII post injury will have a major sophmore slump. All that adds up to Morris is your big slipper this year. Having said that, I don't think Morris will bust. Though, if you're looking for a hot RB sliding down in production I would tab him rather than Martin.

Except for Pierre Garcon and Aldrick Robinson who can both fly.

[heavy-set 39]

i guess what I meant to say is that he wont earn his ADP because he had 2 HUGE games last year that he wont repeat this year.

 

but Bust sounds much better so I went with it.

 

[PackYourNut 47]

i guess what I meant to say is that he wont earn his ADP because he had 2 HUGE games last year that he wont repeat this year.

 

but Bust sounds much better so I went with it.

 

 

He also had 2 TERRIBLE games...

 

So, if he doesnt have 2 HUGE games and he doesnt have 2 TERRIBLE games, then maybe, just maybe he puts up the same numbers again!

[heavy-set 39]

 

He also had 2 TERRIBLE games...

 

So, if he doesnt have 2 HUGE games and he doesnt have 2 TERRIBLE games, then maybe, just maybe he puts up the same numbers again!

 

but this is a bust thread, the terrible games stay the great ones are gone.

[Dan 59]

I have a general rule that I never draft any rookie after his breakout year the next year within the first 2 rounds, mostly applied to QB and RB because you're probably not going to consider another position that early. I want to see at least 2 years of production, or a few years in the league of increasing production to make me comfortable with that high pick.

 

You can call it the Steve Slaton rule if you're the type of person that likes to name rules. It has also saved me from Forte, Cam Newton, Ryan Mathews and I'm sure many others.

 

I have a general rule that I never draft any rookie after his breakout year the next year within the first 2 rounds, mostly applied to QB and RB because you're probably not going to consider another position that early. I want to see at least 2 years of production, or a few years in the league of increasing production to make me comfortable with that high pick.

 

You can call it the Steve Slaton rule if you're the type of person that likes to name rules. It has also saved me from . . . Cam Newton

 

Congratulations on being "saved" from the #4 player overall in his sophomore season.

[Maulers1973 117]

Except for Pierre Garcon and Aldrick Robinson who can both fly.

 

Garcon will get hurt and do we even know if this Aldrick guy can catch a football? Lots of teams have fast guys. Pretty sure none of the WR's the Redskins have cause the opposing defensive coordinators to lose any sleep. Their focus will be in the backfield.

[Joey Gladstone 33]

I like him, but the top 4 running backs are fluctuating like crazy, with the one constant being AP at 1.

 

My personal top 5 (non PPR) is still AP, Foster, Martin, Charles, and Lynch.

[ian Potter 9]

Bad defense or not how many other guys put up those stats against them?

 

Second year for RB's tends to be the biggest jump. He has zero competition and is a 3 down back. Schiano is run heavy, he's got his best lineman back who are Pro Bowlers. The list goes on.

 

It's much easier for a guy being drafted in the Top 5 to "bust" or not meet expectations for that draft position. Chances are he won't perform to his number 4 draft spot but he will easily be one of the best RB's in the NFL this year and worthy of a 1st round draft pick. Bust is a very bad term to use.

[Raider 84 29]

4. Gets 2 pro bowl starting linemen back

 

 

 

I'm sold on that alone!

[The Moz 69]

Unless there is an injury - 1,350 ru 450 rec and 12 total TD's will be pretty much promised.

[DrG 94]

I think the first five rbs are more closely matched than usual. I understand the poster who said he didn't see the wow factor per se but I saw a guy who was good in most facets and pretty consistent for a rookie.

[WhiteWonder 2,223]

Youre more of a MJD guy arent you?

 

i'll take MJD you take Mathews

[Foghorn Leghorn 0]

I'm surprised no one is balking at his touches. Didn't he have about 340 carries an another 40 catches. I thought getting that many touches was supposed to be the kiss of death

 

 

He surpassed that 350 touch barrier that NAn did an analysis of a few years ago. I think he totaled 368 touches, which far surpassed his previous high in college (was it 291?). That's almost 80 more touches, and all at a much more punishing level.

 

I don't believe the "one-game" argument holds water, but the above is something to consider, in my opinion.

[Matt Mueller 146]

I remember trading this guy for D. Thomas week 4 of last season, thinking I got the steal of the century, and then pulling my hair out the rest of the season.

[zac3434 5]

I don't think he busts, but I think he'll fall a little shy of last years numbers.

[heavy-set 39]

he is who I thought he was

 

[tanatastic 2,061]

he is who I thought he was

 

It's a good call. While I'll hesitate to say he's a full bust, he's def not worth 2nd overall anymore and he was in the right situation to be a bust candidate. That said, the state of rbs is pretty bad and he's still getting plenty of touches wich is good, but yea, glad he didn't fall to me.

[dreen626 17]

Made a few posts on him a while back.

He's not elite and had several lousy games last season but his few big games made his averages look better than he is.

 

I refused to pick in the top 5 and took Charles.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

I don't think he busts, but I think he'll fall a little shy of last years numbers.

 

'a little shy'????

 

Rushing yards are down.

Rushing yards per attempt is down.

On pace for 4 TD for the season.

Receptions are down.

Receiving yards are down.

[bandrus1 413]

as my first round pick I am very happy with what I see

 

High number of touches is all I can ask for...... many people are stuck with Spiller who is splitting time and looks like the inferior RB in the split

[tanatastic 2,061]

as my first round pick I am very happy with what I see

 

High number of touches is all I can ask for...... many people are stuck with Spiller who is splitting time and looks like the inferior RB in the split

Yep, it's all u can ask is that it guy sees the field. Pretty much every year half the first round busts.

[kobe808lak 7]

uhh I have him and CJ2K... not happy.

[BDuncan 3]

I'm not ready to write him off yet. It's still early in the season.