The 144th Running of the Kentucky Derby

[GobbleDog 829]

1. Firenze Fire............... 50-1

2. Free Drop Billy........... 30-1

3. Promises Fulfilled...... 30-1

 

4. Flameaway................ 30-1

5. Audible........................ 8-1

6. Good Magic............... 12-1

 

7. Justify.......................... 3-1

8. Lone Sailor................ 50-1

9. Hofburg..................... 20-1

 

10. My Boy Jack........... 20-1

11. Bolt d'Oro.................. 8-1

12. Enticed.................... 30-1

 

13. Bravazo.................. 50-1

14. Mendelssohn............ 5-1

15. Instilled Regard...... 50-1

 

16. Magnum Moon......... 6-1

17. Solomini................. 30-1

18. Vino Rosso..............12-1

 

19. Noble Indy.............. 30-1

20. Combatant............. 50-1

 

 

.....................................................................................

After a 30+ year drought, the favorite has won the Kentucky Derby the last 5 straight years. Bastards.

[supermike80 1,357]

Biggest favorite is only 3-1??

[shotsup 832]

Vino Rosso

[shotsup 832]

Biggest favorite is only 3-1??

That's a normal opening favorite

[NorthernVike 2,081]

I've always wanted to name a horse Glue Factory.

[supermike80 1,357]

That's a normal opening favorite

Ok. I. Used to 5-2 or 7-5 or whatever

[shotsup 832]

Ok. I. Used to 5-2 or 7-5 or whatever

Will probably be on Saturday

[Baker Boy 1,512]

Biggest favorite is only 3-1??

The Favorite has won the last five KD.

 

7 Justify

5 Audible

14 Mendelssohn

[SenatorRock 708]

We want Gronk!

 

We want Gronk!

[GobbleDog 829]

We want Gronk!

 

We want Gronk!

Don't know what happened the horse "Gronkowski" which everyone thought would race in the Derby six months ago. Gronk - the player who's also part owner, reportedly said he wanted to ride that horse someday.... before a reporter pointed out that thoroughbreds aren't used to carrying more than 125 pounds.

 

Maybe he did ride it. And killed it.

[Vince44 202]

Let it Ride starring Richard Dreyfuss.

 

Great gambling movie at the race track.

 

Kentucky Derby weekend always makes me wanna watch that terrific comedy again.

[BunnysBastatrds 1,963]

The bar I go to has a few bookies that eat this sh!t up. There's twenty flat screens in the joint and two of them are dedicated to races around the country. They are at one end of the bar and we are at our end. When they are there and a race comes on, we can't talk over them. We just listen to that two minutes race.

 

My friend Todd named them "3 in the 4" crowd. It's stuck. When they win, free drinks. One has a Saudi friend and three partners in a race for the KD. Saturday is going to be fun.

[wiffleball 4,696]

I don't remember a field like this ever. wasn't that long ago when it was pretty damn rare to be 50 to 1. From memory, what? Giacomo and mine that bird? And that was over like 10 years.

[bandrus1 413]

Don't know what happened the horse "Gronkowski" which everyone thought would race in the Derby six months ago. Gronk - the player who's also part owner, reportedly said he wanted to ride that horse someday.... before a reporter pointed out that thoroughbreds aren't used to carrying more than 125 pounds.

 

Maybe he did ride it. And killed it.

The horse had a fever and was pulled from the race

[GobbleDog 829]

I don't remember a field like this ever. wasn't that long ago when it was pretty damn rare to be 50 to 1. From memory, what? Giacomo and mine that bird? And that was over like 10 years.

Per Wiki, two horses went off at 50-1 last year and two the year before. Four in 2015.

 

There does seem to be more than usual now, but that'll change by post time.

 

Mine That Bird in 2009 was a 50-1 winner. Most amazing ride of all time. Dead last place until final turn... won by 6 lengths. $1 Trifecta paid $21,000 and $1 Superfecta paid $280,000!

[edjr 5,784]

Should I do a kentucky derby pool?

 

$5 or $10 per horse, random draw?

[shotsup 832]

The bar I go to has a few bookies that eat this sh!t up. There's twenty flat screens in the joint and two of them are dedicated to races around the country. They are at one end of the bar and we are at our end. When they are there and a race comes on, we can't talk over them. We just listen to that two minutes race.

 

.

My local evolved to the same thing. A mile from Belmont Park and an OTB across the street. Bookies. Phone accounts. Apps. Betting Paradise.

[patweisers44 712]

Vino Rosso

not showing much in workouts leading up to the race, which is his M.O. before he performs well.. Don't like the post position, but I like the 12-1.

[patweisers44 712]

Should I do a kentucky derby pool?

 

$5 or $10 per horse, random draw?

In.

[patweisers44 712]

Don't bet the chalk. Despite the favorite winning like 4 or 5 years in a row, it wont happen this year...I just pulled Justify in our office drawing.

 

:horsecack:

[GobbleDog 829]

Last year, I picked the Kentucky Derby winner!!! In 2016, my horse took 2nd and in 2015 my horse took 2nd. I'm on a roll!

 

So here we go... same old qualifiers - Eliminate horses not finishing in the top 2 in the five major prep races. Eliminate all horses not bred in the great state of Kentucky. Say hello to 80% of all Derby winners over past 75+ years.

 

 

Santa Anita Derby

1. Justify (4-5)

2. Bolt d'Oro (1-1)

 

Arkansas Derby

1. Magnum Moon (4-5)

2. Quip (6-1) Not entered in Derby

 

Blue Grass

1. Good Magic (8-5)

2. Flameaway (5-1) Born in Ontario

 

Florida Derby

1. Audible (8-1) Born in New York

2. Hofburg (8-1)

 

Wood Memorial

1. Vino Rosso (4-1)

2. Enticed (6-5)

.........................................................................

 

Down to 7 horses.

 

Toss out any horse that didn't race as a 2 year old... aka "The Apollo Curse" The last horse to do it - Apollo in.... 18-focking-82.

 

Say goodbye Justify and Magnum Moon.

.........................................................................

 

Down to 5. Time for some arbitrary eliminations.

 

Hofburg.... only 1 stakes race and took 2nd place at high odds. Also, similar to the Apollo Curse, it's very rare if a horse didn't WIN a race as a 2 year old. Out.

Vino Rosso.... nobody wins back to back Derby's and Vino is ridden by last year's winning jockey John Velazquez. Starting from the #18 gate... good luck. Out.

Enticed.... ridden by Junior Alvarado... never raced a Derby. Also distance issues.

...............................................................................

 

That leaves Bolt d'Oro and Good Magic.

 

The Blue Grass winner hasn't won the Derby since 1991 and reportedly Good Magic's competition wasn't all that. On the other hand, Bolt d'Oro is one of the most talented horses in the race. Has Grade I and Grade II wins, good Beyer rating, and definitely passes the eye test. Which is why Bolt d'Oro is my ***Official Derby Winner***.

[TimmySmith 2,782]

Past Performances.

 

http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Derby18.pdf

 

Who won't win or be in the money

 

21 15 14 13 12 9 10 8 4 3 2 1

 

Horses that can finish in the money

 

20 19 18 17 11 7 6 5

 

Wont win 20 19 17 11

 

Superfecta 18 7 6 5

Vin Rosso

Justify

Good Magic

Audible

 

Winner 5 Audible

[Hardcore troubadour 13,034]

Last year, I picked the Kentucky Derby winner!!! In 2016, my horse took 2nd and in 2015 my horse took 2nd. I'm on a roll!

 

So here we go... same old qualifiers - Eliminate horses not finishing in the top 2 in the five major prep races. Eliminate all horses not bred in the great state of Kentucky. Say hello to 80% of all Derby winners over past 75+ years.

 

 

Santa Anita Derby

1. Justify (4-5)

2. Bolt d'Oro (1-1)

 

Arkansas Derby

1. Magnum Moon (4-5)

2. Quip (6-1) Not entered in Derby

 

Blue Grass

1. Good Magic (8-5)

2. Flameaway (5-1) Born in Ontario

 

Florida Derby

1. Audible (8-1) Born in New York

2. Hofburg (8-1)

 

Wood Memorial

1. Vino Rosso (4-1)

2. Enticed (6-5)

.........................................................................

 

Down to 7 horses.

 

Toss out any horse that didn't race as a 2 year old... aka "The Apollo Curse" The last horse to do it - Apollo in.... 18-focking-82.

 

Say goodbye Justify and Magnum Moon.

.........................................................................

 

Down to 5. Time for some arbitrary eliminations.

 

Hofburg.... only 1 stakes race and took 2nd place at high odds. Also, similar to the Apollo Curse, it's very rare if a horse didn't WIN a race as a 2 year old. Out.

Vino Rosso.... nobody wins back to back Derby's and Vino is ridden by last year's winning jockey John Velazquez. Starting from the #18 gate... good luck. Out.

Enticed.... ridden by Junior Alvarado... never raced a Derby. Also distance issues.

...............................................................................

 

That leaves Bolt d'Oro and Good Magic.

 

The Blue Grass winner hasn't won the Derby since 1991 and reportedly Good Magic's competition wasn't all that. On the other hand, Bolt d'Oro is one of the most talented horses in the race. Has Grade I and Grade II wins, good Beyer rating, and definitely passes the eye test. Which is why Bolt d'Oro is my ***Official Derby Winner***.

That's good stuff. Thanks!

[iam90sbaby 2,169]

All of my family is from Louisville (St. Matthews) - my uncle and a lot of the locals favorite in their neighborhood is Magnum Moon.

[BufordT 379]

Good stuff Gobble. And thanks Timmy for the PP's. Didn't realize the Wood Memorial was downgraded to a G2 stakes. The Wood was a huge race back in the day.

 

Just scanning the pp's it looks like a more top heavy race than usual between Audible, Justify, Bolt d'oro and Mendelssohn. Mendoelssohn responded awesomely in his only start on dirt overseas. OBrien/Moore combo have done recent damage in the Breeder's Cup. Justify will be one of the bigger stars, though, if he can win the TC. Only knock is he's only run 3 races.

 

I'll have about $100 worth of exacta and trifecta combinations on the #'s 5, 7, 9, 10, 11, 14 and 19, keying mostly 7, 10 & 14.

[TimmySmith 2,782]

Last 20 years winners and month of foal

January 0

February 9

March 5

April 5

May 1

 

This year

HORSE

DATE

INDEX

MY BOY JACK

1/26

1.77

BRAVAZO

1/29

2.75

GRONKOWSKI

2/1

3.00

HOFBURG

2/11

2.78

AUDIBLE

2/19

5.00

QUIP

2/19

3.00

FLAMEAWAY

2/28

3.00

GOOD MAGIC

3/1

3.40

BOLT D'ORO

3/17

3.00

FIRENZE FIRE

3/17

4.14

ENTICED

3/23

3.00

JUSTIFY

3/28

3.00

VINO ROSSO

3/29

3.57

LONE SAILOR

3/30

2.71

NOBLE INDY

3/31

3.00

SOLOMINI

4/29

3.00

COMBATANT

5/2

2.60

FREE DROP BILLY

5/3

1.74

MAGNUM MOON

5/9

3.27

PROMISES FULFILLED

5/11

9.00

MENDELSSOHN

5/17

1.80

[Old School 360]

Last year, I picked the Kentucky Derby winner!!! In 2016, my horse took 2nd and in 2015 my horse took 2nd. I'm on a roll!

 

So here we go... same old qualifiers - Eliminate horses not finishing in the top 2 in the five major prep races. Eliminate all horses not bred in the great state of Kentucky. Say hello to 80% of all Derby winners over past 75+ years.

 

 

Santa Anita Derby

1. Justify (4-5)

2. Bolt d'Oro (1-1)

 

Arkansas Derby

1. Magnum Moon (4-5)

2. Quip (6-1) Not entered in Derby

 

Blue Grass

1. Good Magic (8-5)

2. Flameaway (5-1) Born in Ontario

 

Florida Derby

1. Audible (8-1) Born in New York

2. Hofburg (8-1)

 

Wood Memorial

1. Vino Rosso (4-1)

2. Enticed (6-5)

.........................................................................

 

Down to 7 horses.

 

Toss out any horse that didn't race as a 2 year old... aka "The Apollo Curse" The last horse to do it - Apollo in.... 18-focking-82.

 

Say goodbye Justify and Magnum Moon.

.........................................................................

 

Down to 5. Time for some arbitrary eliminations.

 

Hofburg.... only 1 stakes race and took 2nd place at high odds. Also, similar to the Apollo Curse, it's very rare if a horse didn't WIN a race as a 2 year old. Out.

Vino Rosso.... nobody wins back to back Derby's and Vino is ridden by last year's winning jockey John Velazquez. Starting from the #18 gate... good luck. Out.

Enticed.... ridden by Junior Alvarado... never raced a Derby. Also distance issues.

...............................................................................

 

That leaves Bolt d'Oro and Good Magic.

 

The Blue Grass winner hasn't won the Derby since 1991 and reportedly Good Magic's competition wasn't all that. On the other hand, Bolt d'Oro is one of the most talented horses in the race. Has Grade I and Grade II wins, good Beyer rating, and definitely passes the eye test. Which is why Bolt d'Oro is my ***Official Derby Winner***.

Thats a pretty good review.

Good Magic may be a good add to exotics-

[tubby_mcgee 691]

I know he is the favorite...but...jeez...the more I read on Justify....I think he will win it...if he is in the clear and within 5 lengths of the lead midway on the first turn. Obviously, they won't let me wait to bet until that point...so....I'll go.

 

1.) Justify

over

2.) Vino Rosso/Good Magic

3.) Vinny Rosso/Good Magic/My Boy Jack/Bolt D'Oro

[Old School 360]

I know he is the favorite...but...jeez...the more I read on Justify....I think he will win it...if he is in the clear and within 5 lengths of the lead midway on the first turn. Obviously, they won't let me wait to bet until that point...so....I'll go.

 

1.) Justify

over

2.) Vino Rosso/Good Magic

3.) Vinny Rosso/Good Magic/My Boy Jack/Bolt D'Oro

I hate betting the fav in a race this big- but when the fav is this strong, you almost have to have him in some action.

And, leave him out.

He either runs hard and nails it- or hes spent and out of the money.

Will key Justify in an Exacta Box

Will play another Exacta Box without Justify

[Old School 360]

Big move this morning

The 10- My Boy Jack has been bet down from 30-1 down to 5-1

Hes a strong closer and could have a big finish

[listen2me 23 1,592]

Big move this morning

The 10- My Boy Jack has been bet down from 30-1 down to 5-1

Hes a strong closer and could have a big finish

This was my horse but I had no real reason other than I liked the name.

[shotsup 832]

This was my horse but I had no real reason other than I liked the name.

Unless you have a son named Jack you are a pedophile.

[Old School 360]

Damn- rambling on solo style reminiscent of a GF post.

 

Dinked around a little today

Pre Derby

Race 9 DD 3 to the 8

Race 10 DD 8 to the 1,10

Race 9 Pick 3- 3 to the 8 to the 1,10

Race 10 Pick 3- 8 to the 10 to the 6,7

 

Derby

W & P #6 Good Magic

Exacta- Key the 7 w 5,6,10

Exacta box - 5,6,10

 

Tri-box- 5,6,10

Tri- key #6 w 5,7,10,11,18

[listen2me 23 1,592]

Unless you have a son named Jack you are a pedophile.

I had a dog named Jack. Does that count?

[shotsup 832]

I had a dog named Jack. Does that count?

Yes - I was going to say son or pet.

[shotsup 832]

Where do you bet ?

I live a mile from Belmont

Have an OTB literally down the block.

 

But I can sit on the couch and bet on the Twin Spires app.

 

For the derby I'll go to OTB and watch at the bar across the street.

[Old School 360]

Where do you bet ?

I live a mile from Belmont

Have an OTB literally down the block.

 

But I can sit on the couch and bet on the Twin Spires app.

 

For the derby I'll go to OTB and watch at the bar across the street.

In theory- I cant do online betting in this state.

So- theoretically- Id need a friend to place the action in my honor.

[dain11279 935]

6,11 exacta box

[Alias Detective 1,207]

Tri box 6,11,13

 

$2 tri box = $12

[Cloaca du jour 2,094]

Hoffburg on a sloppy track!!

 

Man the racial diversity of this event has really grown!!