Lessons learned from 2023

[wolves111 104]

Where to start.

Ditch the zero rb strategy. As well as the dead zone in rds 3-6.

On an 18 player roster get 14 rb/wr. Maybe 15 total if you go one Qb.

Get one of the young t/e early. Kelce is toast.

Avoid early Qb picks in rds 1-6. Value available later. Better off having two QBs and playing matchups than one of the top three or four. Injuries, schedule, weather mitigate their value. 
 

This will be my 30th year doing this including a FF radio show in 2002-2004. Can’t recall a season with so many hamstring and ankle injuries that put players out for 4-7 weeks. A strong bench is critical. Years ago you penciled in the first six picks and rode them all season. The no contact training camps, bad turf, running qbs, money, steroids, have changed the game.

A big fu to this season.

 

 

 

[taco breath 424]

never bench your studs.

[wolves111 104]

Yeah but it’s time to redefine studs. 

[makindollaz 51]

While you can’t ignore the 28 year old rule with regards to RB’s, it’s not gospel either.

Henry has performed past 28.  CMac is having arguably his best year at 27, and not slowing down.  Kamara has looked good this year.

A lot do start to wear down, but not all.

[polecatt 474]

The Waiver Wire is more important than ever.

As the OP mentioned, injuries are abundant. It certainly was for my team.

My dynasty team, players I have added from waivers the past two seasons, Kenneth Walker, Chris Olave, CJ Stroud, Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Sam LaPorta.

Working the waiver wire can be just as important as the draft

[taco breath 424]

don't pet the sweaty things.

[DrG 102]

High floor players keep you in the game, high ceiling players win you games. A winning roster needs a mix of both.

[makindollaz 51]

2 hours ago, DrG said:

High floor players keep you in the game, high ceiling players win you games. A winning roster needs a mix of both.

This is a good point, and I think what may have bit me in a couple of leagues.  For instance, Goedert is a good TE, but I’d love to have LaPorta instead.  Or drafting Cooper or Hopkins when I could have waited another round or two and gotten Moore or Aiyuk instead.

[wolves111 104]

18 hours ago, polecatt said:

The Waiver Wire is more important than ever.

As the OP mentioned, injuries are abundant. It certainly was for my team.

My dynasty team, players I have added from waivers the past two seasons, Kenneth Walker, Chris Olave, CJ Stroud, Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Sam LaPorta.

Working the waiver wire can be just as important as the draft

In five money leagues I drafted a total of 90 players, 18 per team. Of the original 90 I lost 32 from 2/3 weeks out, or to season ending injuries. Roughly 33 %. Add in all the waiver pickups and it jumps another 15% of players rostered for the season. That's almost half the players. And I'm guessing this wasn't unique to my teams. We were all affected. 

Hard to win that way. As one of the posters commented the draft is just a part of it. In season moves have become really important.

[League Champion 1,896]

My ZERO RB theory was correct but I wasn't fully committed. Next season I'm going WR, QB, WR, WR, TE and then digging into the running backs. 

6th round + is where the value was this season. 

[GobbleDog 976]

On 12/20/2023 at 4:31 PM, wolves111 said:

Ditch the zero rb strategy.

Out of the top 20 Rbs drafted, you could only feel confident starting 2 of them in Week 16.... McCaffrey & Gibbs. 

This season totally validated Zero Rb strategy more than any other in recent history. The trick is to nail the WR picks.

[wolves111 104]

35 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Out of the top 20 Rbs drafted, you could only feel confident starting 2 of them in Week 16.... McCaffrey & Gibbs. 

This season totally validated Zero Rb strategy more than any other in recent history. The trick is to nail the WR picks.

On the surface you’re not wrong but fracturing in injuuries distorts the premise. 
Zero rb was viable due to injuries. Is that guaranteed next year?

[easilyscan 855]

I tried streaming kickers this year. Not every week, but switched 4 or 5 times. Complete failure. Would've been much better off just keeping the guy I drafted in the last round, Jason Myers.

								Fantasy
Player Sort First:       Last:	Team	G	FGM	FGA	FG%	EPM	EPA	FPts	FPts/G
1. Brandon Aubrey	DAL	14	31	31	100.0%	40	43	133.0	9.5
2. Dustin Hopkins	CLE	14	33	36	91.7%	22	24	121.0	8.6
3. Justin Tucker	BAL	14	27	32	84.4%	39	40	120.0	8.6
4. Jason Myers	SEA	14	28	35	80.0%	28	28	112.0	8.0
5. Matt Gay	IND	14	26	33	78.8%	32	33	110.0	7.9
6. Harrison Butker	KC	14	25	26	96.2%	34	34	109.0	7.8
7. Jake Elliott	PHI	14	24	26	92.3%	37	38	109.0	7.8
8. Jake Moody	SF	14	18	21	85.7%	53	53	107.0	7.6
9. Wil Lutz	DEN	14	27	29	93.1%	25	27	106.0	7.6
10. Blake Grupe	NO	14	25	32	78.1%	30	30	105.0	7.5

 

[rilett 15]

There is always an over reaction to what happened the previous year. QB Is down this year, injuries have been a big part of that and the top QB’s have not put up the numbers we are used to seeing. Next year they are going to be a great value as they will be drafted lower than they should be in some cases much lower. I try to take advantage of the overreaction that comes every year if possible. 

[GobbleDog 976]

3 hours ago, wolves111 said:

Zero rb was viable due to injuries. Is that guaranteed next year?

Rb injuries might have been more excessive this year, but I don't think it was too far from the norm (no data, just a hunch). Aside from injuries they certainly under-perform at a higher rate than other positions.

The most valuable draft capital in FF is your first and second draft picks. Investing that capital in the most volatile position is inherently risky. I knew that going in this year and still couldn't help myself when Chubb was still there early 2nd.  Never again.

No matter how "safe" that RB appears to be.. I'm out. Wr-Wr for life in my ppr league.

[easilyscan 855]

4 hours ago, rilett said:

There is always an over reaction to what happened the previous year. QB Is down this year, injuries have been a big part of that and the top QB’s have not put up the numbers we are used to seeing. Next year they are going to be a great value as they will be drafted lower than they should be in some cases much lower. I try to take advantage of the overreaction that comes every year if possible. 

Nailed it.

In 2005, after 2 years of trying, my work friends finally convinced me to play fantasy football. I had the first pick. Because Peyton Manning had thrown 49 TDs in 2004, I made him the number one pick. He ended up with 28. 

[wolves111 104]

10 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Rb injuries might have been more excessive this year, but I don't think it was too far from the norm (no data, just a hunch). Aside from injuries they certainly under-perform at a higher rate than other positions.

The most valuable draft capital in FF is your first and second draft picks. Investing that capital in the most volatile position is inherently risky. I knew that going in this year and still couldn't help myself when Chubb was still there early 2nd.  Never again.

No matter how "safe" that RB appears to be.. I'm out. Wr-Wr for life in my ppr league.

Yeah, did that this year. Took Jefferson with the #1 pick. Didn't work out so well. 

[Flipper 60]

13 hours ago, easilyscan said:

Would've been much better off just keeping the guy I drafted in the last round, Jason Myers.

The best plan.  He was my choice next to last in the draft and I dropped him for his bye and picked him back up the next week.

[Flipper 60]

48 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

Yeah, did that this year. Took Jefferson with the #1 pick. Didn't work out so well. 

Jefferson was bad luck but we all get those vibes after a career year.  I will NEVER draft any position except WR with my first 2 to 3 picks.  I drafted late this year and landed St. Brown and Lamb. 

[LaChup 228]

Always, always, always pick the best team and whatever you do, don't draft players who are going to get hurt. If you have to choose between two players with equal talent, start the one who is going to score the most points. Always put the bad JuJu on your opponent and never hope for the CBS guru to predict you the weekly winner. Pick up Taysom Hill as your secret weapon and never pick up a TE after he starts dating a billionaire.

[TBayXXXVII 2,480]

In 2 QB leagues, you're not really safe until you have FOUR startable QB's.

[GobbleDog 976]

6 hours ago, wolves111 said:

Yeah, did that this year. Took Jefferson with the #1 pick. Didn't work out so well. 

Obviously wr-wr isn't completely risk free, just less risky.  Much less.

[posty 2,608]

To continue to not play fantasy football and enjoy not dealing with this every year...

[DrG 102]

I ascribe to the 1 rb rule. I will draft 1 rb and 1  wr early. Zero rb risky and prone to misdraft if there is a run and the roster is unbalanced.

[wolves111 104]

Zero.

[Ramrock 17]

You can never have to many rbs

[Alias Detective 1,388]

Hoard TE’s and QB’s

[BufordT 425]

First 4 rounds....best RB/WR available.  Rounds 5-6 ..... best RB/WR/TE available.  After that hope like he11 you hit on your QB.  

One addendum, try not to take players coming off of a career year. 

Two addendum, stay away from coaching staffs with Matt Nagy and probably Hackett

[Gratefulegg1973 261]

2-3 leagues for the past 30+ years.  I honestly think this was the first year I've had a #1 overall pick.  I went;  JJ, Chubb, Mahomes, D. Smith, Waller.  Somehow I'm still in it.  

The big mistake I made was Mahomes.   I should have waited till all the 'top' QBs were gone, and went with Dak or someone.  I'll never take a QB before round 5 again.  

Never, ever draft Darren Waller.  It's a guarantee he'll miss at least half the season.

 

[justforbeer 41]

Kelce is no longer a first round pick next year. 
 

Unless Mahomes gets some wide receiver help. He is no longer a top 3 qb. 
 

Laporta is the TE to have next year.  Probably was this year also!
 

McCaffrey will be the number one pick next year.  (Barring injury.)
 

Try to avoid running back by committee situations when drafting running backs late. There is several backs this year that were given the opportunity and have been amazing.  Rashad White, Raheem Mostert, travis Etienne, Kamara, and James Conner.  

[TimHauck 2,598]

7 hours ago, justforbeer said:

Try to avoid running back by committee situations when drafting running backs late. 

Uh, this is pretty much impossible, particularly going into the season.

I think this season is further proof that you should wait on RB and QB.

If there’s one thing I learned it’s don’t be scared of early season suspensions.  Kamara was probably my best draft pick in my main league.   Early season injuries however are risky.  Kupp and Taylor for example had a good stretch, but both weren’t very reliable.

[JagFan 149]

On 12/22/2023 at 11:47 AM, LaChup said:

Always, always, always pick the best team and whatever you do, don't draft players who are going to get hurt. If you have to choose between two players with equal talent, start the one who is going to score the most points. Always put the bad JuJu on your opponent and never hope for the CBS guru to predict you the weekly winner. Pick up Taysom Hill as your secret weapon and never pick up a TE after he starts dating a billionaire.

Said billionaire is leaving the country in October after the election so said TE is a DND next year since he’ll probably go with her.  I’ll be throwing parties all November when said like minded people as her have moved to Brazil and this country gets back on track!

[wolves111 104]

2 hours ago, JagFan said:

Said billionaire is leaving the country in October after the election so said TE is a DND next year since he’ll probably go with her.  I’ll be throwing parties all November when said like minded people as her have moved to Brazil and this country gets back on track!

I'll help her pack. Rich liberal doing her part to destroy America.

[TBayXXXVII 2,480]

17 hours ago, justforbeer said:

Kelce is no longer a first round pick next year. 
 

Unless Mahomes gets some wide receiver help. He is no longer a top 3 qb. 

I have a feeling the Chiefs know this (not specific to fantasy, but know they need a WR... BAD), and they're going to write Mike Evans a blank check in the off-season.

[BufordT 425]

19 hours ago, justforbeer said:

Kelce is no longer a first round pick next year. 

Taylor "Memo" Swift

[justforbeer 41]

18 hours ago, TimHauck said:

Uh, this is pretty much impossible, particularly going into the season.

Yet Mostert was complete gold in the 14th round of my draft.
 

also, I listed off plenty of work horse backs that were not drafted in the first two rounds.

[TimHauck 2,598]

1 hour ago, justforbeer said:

Yet Mostert was complete gold in the 14th round of my draft.
 

also, I listed off plenty of work horse backs that were not drafted in the first two rounds.

“After the first 2 rounds” is not late IMO.  I also had Etienne in a couple leagues and Kamara in one, but I wouldn’t call where they were being drafted as “late,” even though I just said Kamara was probably the best pick I made.

You don’t think Miami was considered a RBBC leading into the season?

 

[easilyscan 855]

On 12/22/2023 at 11:47 AM, LaChup said:

Always, always, always pick the best team and whatever you do, don't draft players who are going to get hurt. If you have to choose between two players with equal talent, start the one who is going to score the most points. Always put the bad JuJu on your opponent and never hope for the CBS guru to predict you the weekly winner. Pick up Taysom Hill as your secret weapon and never pick up a TE after he starts dating a billionaire.

Thank you. The rest of my league doesn't have a prayer next year 

 

I learned most of these lessons long before 2023, but I think most still ring true today.

Don't follow the herd. Leading up to my 1st ever draft, I read an article saying not to pick a TE until someone else drafts one. Since the run on that position would now have started, grab one ASAP. The same article, said the same thing regarding QB's. 

Starting with my 2nd draft in 2006, I did the opposite. I intentionally set up the Yahoo draft window in a way that I couldn't see who anyone else drafted.  Instead of paying attention to what others were doing, I filled my roster one position at a time, with the best player available. 

No smack talk during the draft. That first year, I allowed myself to be distracted by getting involved in the smack talk comments section/window.

Time Allowed Per Pick: In year 2, the commissioner threw us a curve by changing the time allowed per pick from 60 seconds to 30. I might get some pushback here, but that's ridiculous. Yahoo allows up to a full 2 minutes. That's too long. 30 seconds isn't enough. Make sure you know the time allowed before the draft. 

I suppose this goes along with not following the herd, but don't be afraid to draft someone early if you have a hunch. Michael Turner backed up LT on the Chargers from 2004-2007. He was traded to the Falcons in the off-season. He was freakish in size - 5' 10" 240+ lbs.  What impressed me was that he returned kicks for the Chargers. That told me he had speed that a guy that size shouldn't. Don't remember what round I drafted him, just know that I grabbed him early & the next day, at least one owner asked me, "what the hell were you thinking ?  Of course I'm cherry picking with that one, and I'm sure I made similar moves later that probably didn't work out at all.

LaChup already pointed this out, but it's worth repeating. Always start your studs. 2023 is my 18th year of playing FF, & I still make @ least a couple insanely stupid mistake every year. My worst this year happened in week 13. I drafted DK Metcalf, & picked up Tank Dell when he was dropped after missing week 6 & being on his bye week 7. Metcalf wasn't exactly setting the world on fire, while Dell had been (weeks 10-11-12) Metcalf was playing at Dallas @ the time one of the toughest matchups for WR's. So I benched him for Tank. On the Seahawks 1st possession, Geno Smith hit him for a 74 yard TD. He finished 6-148-3. Unfortunately for Dell, he broke his leg & scored zero pts. 

Follow the box scores every week, especially early in the year. This is where people willing to put in the time, can identify players beginning to break out. This doesn't guarantee anything, but if you have a decent sized bench, it gives you a 'chance' to pick up a guy who could be a difference maker 'before' everyone knows & literally thousands of waiver wire articles tell the masses to pick them up Tuesday morning. 

[weepaws 3,149]

4 hours ago, TimHauck said:

“After the first 2 rounds” is not late IMO.  I also had Etienne in a couple leagues and Kamara in one, but I wouldn’t call where they were being drafted as “late,” even though I just said Kamara was probably the best pick I made.

You don’t think Miami was considered a RBBC leading into the season?

 

Never will know, but if Achane And Wilson didn’t get hurt , it might have been a RBBC.  

[taco breath 424]

back up you kicker for the playoffs.  

(fantasypros) Dustin Hopkins has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Jets.

Analysis: Hopkins injured his hamstring this past weekend against the Texans. He will be sidelined for at least one game.