**Official Chiefs vs Buccaneers Super Bowl Thread **

[GobbleDog 985]

7 minutes ago, nzoner said:

Coach to Have Nostrils Seen First During Game 

Bruce Arians -200

Andy Reid +150

 

As far as I recall Arians has been wearing the see thru shield.

That's funny. The problem is who grades what officially counts? Does partially seen count?  Does one nostril count?  Obviously the off-shore sportsbook grades it. I don't bet it, if the result isn't in the boxscore.

I remember 10 years ago, there was a prop bet: "How many FOODS will John Madden mention during the game?" Over/under was 2.5 or something.  Funny bet, but what if John Madden had referenced a Bacon-Lettuce-Tomato sandwich... is that 1 food or 3?  Both sides could be argued.  Makes me think the sportsbook goes with whichever side profits them most.

[NEWPOSTERGUY! 288]

6 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

There's a good reason some odds are +550. I don't mess that.  I go the other way and look for negative odds. Like:

Will there be a Defensive or Special Teams TD?   No (-275)

Need to parlay that with something else.  I recommend a college basketball big favorite on the money-line.  I already won the first leg of my parlay bet. Just waiting on the obvious.

 

 i am quite familiar with betting, tyvm ... i get it. 

i'll take the +550 on Godwin as a much, much better bet than DWill in every way possible... and more attainable, imo.

and youare looking to parlay a -275 prop with a prohib money line CB favorite?  what are you looking for, a -325 combo?

meh.  no thanks. 

[nzoner 937]

4 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

That's funny. The problem is who grades what officially counts? Does partially seen count?  Does one nostril count?  Obviously the off-shore sportsbook grades it. I don't bet it, if the result isn't in the boxscore.

I remember 10 years ago, there was a prop bet: "How many FOODS will John Madden mention during the game?" Over/under was 2.5 or something.  Funny bet, but what if John Madden had referenced a Bacon-Lettuce-Tomato sandwich... is that 1 food or 3?  Both sides could be argued.  Makes me think the sportsbook goes with whichever side profits them most.

Yeah I wouldn't trust any of them,I just bumped a thread I started earlier this week that's got some additional strange bets,in fact I can't imagine being the poor schmuck that gets to track them.

[NEWPOSTERGUY! 288]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

How many players will attempt a pass:  OVER 2.5 (+125)

Injury to either QB - win.  Andy Reid's famous trick play - win.

Good odds. 

i do like this one very much ... it might come down to 'Homie missing a series or two if that turf toe gets aggravated - this one could easily click.

botched xp or fg att. could also deliver this one - also fake punt/fg in play. 

[GobbleDog 985]

5 minutes ago, NEWPOSTERGUY! said:

 

 i am quite familiar with betting, tyvm ... i get it. 

i'll take the +550 on Godwin as a much, much better bet than DWill in every way possible... and more attainable, imo.

and youare looking to parlay a -275 prop with a prohib money line CB favorite?  what are you looking for, a -325 combo?

meh.  no thanks. 

Exactly, whatever gets it close to even money payout.  That's how I make 99% of my bets all year.

Rather than KC -3, I prefer Kansas City money-line parlayed with a 15+ point college basketball game or a couple of 20+ point favorites.

 

Will so-and-so win by 3, 7 or 10 or 20+?  Who the hell knows. A lot easier just picking winners. To each their own.

 

[NEWPOSTERGUY! 288]

3 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Exactly, whatever gets it close to even money payout.  That's how I make 99% of my bets all year.

Rather than KC -3, I prefer Kansas City money-line parlayed with a 15+ point college basketball game or a couple of 20+ point favorites.

 

Will so-and-so win by 3, 7 or 10 or 20+?  Who the hell knows. A lot easier just picking winners. To each their own.

 

i can dig a good grinding strategy - fair enuff.

getting back to Williams, i love him at o14.5 rec yds at +105 much more than his rushing prop. 

CEH will not be the 3rd down/2 min/hurry up back tmrw ... it has been mostly Williams all season, that ain't changing for this game. 

gl ✌

 

[JustinCharge 2,397]

11 minutes ago, NEWPOSTERGUY! said:

CEH will not be the 3rd down/2 min/hurry up back tmrw ... it has been mostly Williams all season, that ain't changing for this game. 

gl ✌

 

Every NFL coach operates with a sense of ego, pride and hubris and sticks with the style and identity that got them there...except Belichick.  Belichick displays a total lack of ego, pride and hubris in that he will completely scrap schemes and switch to whatever works to win.  Because Belichick is all about winning.  Belichick demonstrates a tremendous amount of humility and discipline to do that.  Its really rare.

[GobbleDog 985]

9 minutes ago, NEWPOSTERGUY! said:

getting back to Williams, i love him at o14.5 rec yds at +105 much more than his rushing prop.

He only broke 14.5 rec yds FIVE times this year out of 18 games (not counting week 17 - barely played - didn't break it then either).  And 2 of those five times he barely got there with 15 yds and a third time he had 16 yds.

That one makes me nervous. 

[NEWPOSTERGUY! 288]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

He only broke 14.5 rec yds FIVE times this year out of 18 games (not counting week 17 - barely played - didn't break it then either).  And 2 of those five times he barely got there with 15 yds and a third time he had 16 yds.

That one makes me nervous. 

i'll take 5 outta18 aaaalllllll day over 1 outta 9 

(Williams eclipsed 28.5 rush yds only once with both him & CEH healthy & active, and that was the Denver snow bowl).

 

[cmh6476 1,010]

There's going to be a lot of quick passes designed to get the ball out quick with the tackles out.  I'd say 3-5 of these will be designed for tyreek, basically setup as running plays.  He breaks one off and he isn't being held to 100 yards.

[NEWPOSTERGUY! 288]

13 minutes ago, cmh6476 said:

There's going to be a lot of quick passes designed to get the ball out quick with the tackles out.  I'd say 3-5 of these will be designed for tyreek, basically setup as running plays.  He breaks one off and he isn't being held to 100 yards.

 

this also leads me to believe Williams will see enough pass game volume to easily surpass 14.5 rec yds ... hell, even CEH is live on his #

if one wants to float a contrarian Hill prop (u92.5), cool ... but for one to say he won't come close to 100 is ridiculous.

ETA: just saw Hill at -105 for o6.5 rush yds ... open the vault

 

 

[listen2me 23 1,831]

19 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Exactly, whatever gets it close to even money payout.  That's how I make 99% of my bets all year.

Rather than KC -3, I prefer Kansas City money-line parlayed with a 15+ point college basketball game or a couple of 20+ point favorites.

 

Will so-and-so win by 3, 7 or 10 or 20+?  Who the hell knows. A lot easier just picking winners. To each their own.

 

Hou 5th ranked lost to Eastern Carolina the other night.  15th ranked Creighton got beat by 4-8 Georgetown the same night.  I understand the strategy but parlaying big favorite CBball games to get down close to even seems like an awful strategy especially this year.  There are big upsets each night.  No rhyme or reason to that season this year.  

Nothing worse than nailing say the Chiefs ML here then losing it on some -1000 college team mot coming through.  Id rather eat some juice than play that game all year.

[JustinCharge 2,397]

1 hour ago, NEWPOSTERGUY! said:

if one wants to float a contrarian Hill prop (u92.5), cool ... but for one to say he won't come close to 100 is ridiculous.

I'm just basing it off history. 

When good teams face the Mahomes-era Chiefs the second time in the same season, they make it a top priority to take Tyreek Hill out of the game.  He basically has no catches.  And the Chiefs have lost both of those games.   It certainly makes sense to me.  Speed kills in the NFL.  Hill must be removed from the game.  Seeing Hill in person the first time helps the defense greatly in getting that done.  They know who to assign to lock him down.  I won't guarantee the Buccaneers will accomplish that.  But I feel certain they will try.  And if I had to bet, I would bet Hill has a very quiet super bowl.

Hell, I just looked it up, and the Ravens shut down hill the second time they played, and that was across 2 seasons.  Only 77 yards.

[nospk 230]

On 2/5/2021 at 10:26 PM, Hardcore troubadour said:

JPP puts on a show,  34-27 Bucs. 

Like a fireworks show?

[Hardcore troubadour 14,960]

5 minutes ago, nospk said:

Like a fireworks show?

Ha! 

[GobbleDog 985]

3 hours ago, listen2me 23 said:

Hou 5th ranked lost to Eastern Carolina the other night.  15th ranked Creighton got beat by 4-8 Georgetown the same night.  I understand the strategy but parlaying big favorite CBball games to get down close to even seems like an awful strategy especially this year.  There are big upsets each night.  No rhyme or reason to that season this year.  

Nothing worse than nailing say the Chiefs ML here then losing it on some -1000 college team mot coming through.  Id rather eat some juice than play that game all year.

Upsets happen - I lost some on that Georgetown upset. Gotta be selective and bet small amounts.  But I'd still rather roll the dice on a few big favorites winning than eat juice or lay points.

[The Elevator Killer 521]

Sung to the tune of Super Freak. (Yeah it's short. So is your mom.)

 

It's time for the Super Bowl,
You know the one with Tom Brady,
Gronk's going to be too,
And Tom took Antonio Brown of the street

Mahohmey's going down
Half his line is still in High School
Boyles is going to blitz him
It's the right time, for Suh to eat his speen.

Gronk is pretty wild now
He head butted the Super Bowl trophy
Tom is going to win this one for Drobeski
So he will have as many rings and Drobes has teeth
KC are going to try passes that are dinky
The NFL is going to  freak
QBs are are flying from team to team
Because it's a copy cat league

Brady's all right, Hes all right
That G.O.A.T.'s all right with me yeah. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa
It's the Super Bowl, Super Bowl
It's the Super Bowl, Super Bowl, Super Bowl

Tyreek Hill has special speed
From from his head down to his toenails
But will it really matter,
Because they will only throw dinks.

 

[Cdub100 3,843]

Anyone else not watching?

[Utilit99 4,099]

Go bucs

[Utilit99 4,099]

I am so glad this is the ***********Offiicial Thread************

Gives me a sense of calm.

[Mike Isles 583]

Who was the black chick with guitar and big boobs ?

[fandandy 3,313]

Just play the focking game already.  These people just love hearing themselves babble.

[fandandy 3,313]

I'm so glad it ain't Buck/Aikman.

[Old School 360]

The pregame was godawful. Damn that was painful.

Hopefully we can now concentrate on the actual game

[Mike Isles 583]

3 and out

Love it. Spags !!!!

[Utilit99 4,099]

This is the "Official Thread"?. Holy cray. I'm honored.!!!!

[fandandy 3,313]

M. Knight shoulda stopped after the Sixth Sense.  That looks DUMB.

[DonS 3,292]

So can we expect poetry at the coin toss from now on? 

[Strike 5,219]

Anyone remember when SB commercials were actually entertaining?

[Utilit99 4,099]

Just now, Strike said:

Anyone remember when SB commercials were actually entertaining?

It's been a while but yeah.

[fandandy 3,313]

I'm on Tranny Watch.  I bet we see one in a commercial.

[Utilit99 4,099]

Just now, fandandy said:

I'm on Tranny Watch.  I bet we see one in a commercial.

Good call. 

[Hardcore troubadour 14,960]

Matthew McKindagay

[fandandy 3,313]

You knew Gronk was gonna score.

[posty 2,613]

Did they say that was Brady’s first TD pass in the first quarter of a Super Bowl?

[DonS 3,292]

Crazy stat that Brady never had a 1st quarter SB TD until that one. 

[DonS 3,292]

Just now, posty said:

Did they say that was Brady’s first TD pass in the first quarter of a Super Bowl?

Yep.  Until that he had 0 TDs and 2 INTs in 1st.

[fandandy 3,313]

Just now, posty said:

Did they say that was Brady’s first TD pass in the first quarter of a Super Bowl?

Yep.  2 interceptions but never a TD until now.

[Mike Honcho 5,115]

That was less than 18 inches to go and did he get stopped????

 

[BeenHereBefore 1,469]

Yep he did.