Say you were the head of the DNC.....

[Sean Mooney 1,937]

So a little scenario exercise for everyone (and for those on the right, put away the political team stuff for a moment)....

 

The push is to remove Biden from the ticket. But I think at this point it may not matter. Trump is in the pole position and having an assassination attempt against his life only furthers that hold. I'd have to think at this point there is a strong chance Trump is elected President. But anyway....

In today's Politico Playbook they looked at a poll by BlueLabs Analytics about their findings on the 2024 election. What they found was essentially:

1.) Pretty much every Democratic candidate they tried polled better than Biden.

2.) Most of those people were pulling votes from the Republican side as well.

3.) People want fresh faces (consequently- Kamala was polling better than Biden but not as well as the fresh faces. Essentially people wanted someone not associated with the incumbent administration)

4.) The 4 Democrats who polled the best were in alphabetical order: Mark Kelly (AZ), Wes Moore (MD), Josh Shapiro (PA), Gretchen Whitmer (MI)....(I would argue the Dems have a pretty deep bench right now as that 4 doesn't include like Newsom and Jefferies and others who could conceivably be propped up into a run. 

So there are potentially viable options but you could also be potentially running a candidate that has a strong chance in 2028 or 2032 and burning them on an election cycle that might already be lost which weakens the bench some.

The question then is: If you were the head of the DNC and had to make a recommendation in one way or another do you:

1.) Stay the course with Biden and crossing your fingers the old man can figure it out which might lose you the 2024 White House but keeps your deep bench intact.

2.) Roll over to Kamala and asking her to not use one of your potential candidates upcoming and hoping for the best

3.) Roll over to Kamala, letting her pick whoever she wants as VP with the risk that a Kamala loss hurts her and potentially ruins a person for a 2028 bid.

4.) Say "Screw it"- let's pick the best candidate we can off the bench and letting them take the Presidency, or the loss, essentially sacrificing someone for the Democratic brand potentially

[Sean Mooney 1,937]

Here is the Politico piece I mentioned:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2024/07/17/new-polling-bolsters-dump-biden-push-00168943

 

Additionally-according to this poll from the AP and NORC- 65% of Democrats want Biden to drop out of the race:

https://apnorc.org/projects/most-say-biden-should-withdraw-from-the-presidential-race/

[The Real timschochet 6,410]

1. I think it’s meaningless to poll how other Democrats might perform against Trump. Those polls can’t be accurate. We wouldn’t know until it happened. 

2. The assassination attempt is going to give Trump a very temporary boost but no way is it going to last more than a few weeks, certainly not by the election. The debate disaster is far more problematic for Biden- but the polls have moved only a little. 

3. All this talk about Biden quitting (he won’t) is affecting polling because it’s delaying the reality- voters still haven’t fully accepted the fact that they face a stark choice between Biden and Trump, either-or. When they do the polls will tighten further. In fact I expect that Biden might gain the slight edge at that point, sometime in September or October. 

4. Several upcoming events between now and November will help Biden: cutting of interest rates, inflation receding further, border control continuing to tighten, Israel- Hamas ceasefire, and Biden’s new Supreme Court proposal. 
 

Still tons of time. I think Joe is primed for a big comeback. 

[zsasz 361]

This isn't really ________ v. Trump.  This is Trump Adoration v. Trump Hate against the backdrop of traditional Democratic and Republican values and ideas.  Sure, both sides are hyper charged by their Project 2025 and "OmG ThE TrANs!!!!" whining....but this is still about traditional values.

I don't think the D's are at the point where they don't think Biden can win.  I think they're at the point where they're looking to see if there's an easier path to victory with another candidate.  To that, there probably is.  I don't think there's a ardent Biden supporter who will NOT vote in this election if Biden is replaced...because it is about Trump.

A late move swerve does several things tactically:

It will have wasted some of Trump's time and money on Biden; he'll have to redirect his attack platform on the fly a bit; while the Democrats won't.   Trump is still Trump while Shapiro or Moore or Kelly are not Biden.

It gives them the "too old to hold" card now; unless they nominate Bernie Sanders.  It's a bit of an overrrated card...but people still care.

It might improve the standing with a particular state or demographic at the voting booths.  

 

The Shark move is for Biden to back out himself and allow someone else to take his place.  

 

 

[Engorgeous George 2,126]

They should put Kamala up as the sacrificial lamb so that they have her out of the way for 2028.

[IGotWorms 4,057]

You go #3. Give it to Kamala and she picks VP.

I’d also caution against relying on polls with lesser known candidates. As soon as they’re named there will be an immediate and widespread effort to negatively define them and drive down their approvals. It’s only at that point, once they’ve been sort of “battle tested,” that you can really say how they’ll do.

Kamala has been mostly battle tested. Not to say that it won’t intensify big time, because of course it will, but she’s withstood it so far.

[MDC 7,124]

It’s not up to the DNC, only Biden can decide to step down. But if I’m head of the party and could decide what’s best long term I go with option 2. 

The optics of going with a candidate who isn’t Kamala are awful and whoever runs this year is at a massive disadvantage. I preserve that deep bench roster for 2028, after Trump has the worst 2nd term in history.

[Tree of Knowledge 1,699]

35 minutes ago, Engorgeous George said:

They should put Kamala up as the sacrificial lamb so that they have her out of the way for 2028.

This would be the smart play.  

[GutterBoy 2,898]

Biden's gotta go.  At this point I think the only option is Kamala.  I think from a logistics perspective it makes the most sense.  Give her a chance to beat the piss out of Trump on a daily basis, humiliate him, expose him, etc.  If she sucks as president then clean slate in 4 years.

Plus is will expose maga for the ass holes that they are.  All we'll hear is she's a DEI hire, she's a slut, etc.  All personal attacks by the king of personal attack and at least she has the wit to defend herself and strike back.

[Baker Boy 1,687]

5 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

Biden's gotta go.  At this point I think the only option is Kamala.  I think from a logistics perspective it makes the most sense.  Give her a chance to beat the piss out of Trump on a daily basis, humiliate him, expose him, etc.  If she sucks as president then clean slate in 4 years.

Plus is will expose maga for the ass holes that they are.  All we'll hear is she's a DEI hire, she's a slut, etc.  All personal attacks by the king of personal attack and at least she has the wit to defend herself and strike back.

She was a DEI hire, Biden said he was going to pick a woman of color as his VP.

[RaiderHaters Revenge 4,237]

I think no 3 is the best option, I don't think Kamala would pick someone capable as a VP, as that would be a threat to her

one of the safest things Biden did was select Kamala, cause no matter what, the thought was shes way worse

 

[HellToupee 1,584]

1 hour ago, MDC said:

It’s not up to the DNC, only Biden can decide to step down

I hope Dr Jill ensures his security is playing ball and on top of their game 

[IGotWorms 4,057]

9 minutes ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

I think no 3 is the best option, I don't think Kamala would pick someone capable as a VP, as that would be a threat to her

one of the safest things Biden did was select Kamala, cause no matter what, the thought was shes way worse

 

That is a real concern. She would need someone palatable but who would not outshine her. I’m thinking a bit lesser-known governor like beshear or Shapiro?

[MDC 7,124]

11 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

That is a real concern. She would need someone palatable but who would not outshine her. I’m thinking a bit lesser-known governor like beshear or Shapiro?

Shapiro is boring and represents a swing state, he’d make a great VP.

[Hardcore troubadour 14,927]

Kamala isn’t a slut. She’s a who-re. 

[purdygood 334]

Just now, Hardcore troubadour said:

Kamala isn’t a slut. She’s a who-re. 

Pro Tip - never trust/marry a woman who has 2 A's in her name and end in "uh" (Kamala, Melania...)

[patweisers44 815]

Not sure on all of this, but i wouldn't consider Gretch as a part of any deep "bench"

[Hardcore troubadour 14,927]

If the democrats are tying to get away from the woke stuff, I’d say go with Jeffries. He’s been an anti- Semite since way before Oct 7. 

[IGotWorms 4,057]

9 minutes ago, patweisers44 said:

Not sure on all of this, but i wouldn't consider Gretch as a part of any deep "bench"

I have to agree. Everyone acts like she’s some kind of impressive candidate but from everything I’ve seen she’s just okay. Maybe not even that good, something about her is kind of off putting imo

[Sean Mooney 1,937]

3 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

You go #3. Give it to Kamala and she picks VP.

I’d also caution against relying on polls with lesser known candidates. As soon as they’re named there will be an immediate and widespread effort to negatively define them and drive down their approvals. It’s only at that point, once they’ve been sort of “battle tested,” that you can really say how they’ll do.

Kamala has been mostly battle tested. Not to say that it won’t intensify big time, because of course it will, but she’s withstood it so far.

That's what I think they have to do

[BudBro 173]

Head of DNC should make sure the A team crews are in place in the other countries that have access during the night of vote counting.  Have a couple water pipe breaks on the ready to shut everything down again.  See if Martha and Bret are ready to help throw another one.

[listen2me 23 1,825]

4 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

You go #3. Give it to Kamala and she picks VP.

I’d also caution against relying on polls with lesser known candidates. As soon as they’re named there will be an immediate and widespread effort to negatively define them and drive down their approvals. It’s only at that point, once they’ve been sort of “battle tested,” that you can really say how they’ll do.

Kamala has been mostly battle tested. Not to say that it won’t intensify big time, because of course it will, but she’s withstood it so far.

Anyone with chops or age on their side would probably shy away anyway in hopes for a run next cycle.  

So I agree with throw Kamala to the wolves stuff.  

[thegeneral 2,896]

Ideal ticket for me all things considered are Kamala with a white dude who looks like a tv politician, preferably from the south.

Andy Beshear Kentucky fits the bill, Shapiro from Penn would work.

[IGotWorms 4,057]

4 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

Anyone with chops or age on their side would probably shy away anyway in hopes for a run next cycle.  

So I agree with throw Kamala to the wolves stuff.  

Trump is a very weak candidate. There’s an opportunity to pounce here and plenty are probably willing to take it.

In ‘28, who knows. Maybe Vance is popular with MAGA but doesn’t have all the baggage of Trump. That might be pretty hard to beat.

[iam90sbaby 2,486]

Nothing you can do, y'all are focked. Trump 2024 b!tches!!!!!

[jerryskids 6,559]

Kamala, prolly option 3.  I didn't see mentioned the fact that she can use the war chest they've amassed.  Also, she has been outspoken about abortion.

[Engorgeous George 2,126]

3 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

I have to agree. Everyone acts like she’s some kind of impressive candidate but from everything I’ve seen she’s just okay. Maybe not even that good, something about her is kind of off putting imo

Sure but what sort of narrative can be woven around her.  "She stood bravely in the face of an attempted kidnaping and possible assination attempt.  She has skillfully governed a state with massively disparate constituencies.  She has always, as a women, been the staunchest support of a woman's right to choose."  Maybe that can be sold better than Cackling Kamala.  Maybe not.  I still say take all the bad medicine in one big gulp.  Accept the coming loss and clear the stage of both Biden and Kamala by running her.  Otherwise the Democrats have to live with her in 2028, either as the nominee or as a spurned black, female nominee who loves big yellow school buses.

[nobody 2,562]

There's still 100 days to the election.  Trump doesn't have this thing locked up by a long shot.

The Dems problem for this election in my perspective is that I think there is going to be low voter turnout since he's just not inspiring a lot of faith.  So it's not about switching votes.  It's about getting the people who are going to vote for you to go out and vote.  

Kamala won't be exciting.  There's too much bias against women.

They can't switch up to someone new because Biden unless Biden plays ball, or else the in fighting this late will be too big of a drag on the chances of whomever it may be.

[Maximum Overkill 1,739]

7 hours ago, Sean Mooney said:

4.) Say "Screw it"- let's pick the best candidate we can off the bench and letting them take the Presidency, or the loss, essentially sacrificing someone for the Democratic brand potentially

This  

They have to do what they have to do. 

[TimHauck 2,614]

10 hours ago, thegeneral said:

Ideal ticket for me all things considered are Kamala with a white dude who looks like a tv politician, preferably from the south.

Andy Beshear Kentucky fits the bill, Shapiro from Penn would work.

Sounds like you’re describing Roy Cooper from NC, but I want him to be President eventually and not wasted on a ticket with Kamala.

[TimHauck 2,614]

Michelle Obama would kinda make sense as a YOLO candidate TBH.  Not really burning the “bench,” and righties can’t claim they were discriminating against Kamala for being a black woman.

[BunnysBastatrds 2,310]

 Knee pads

[Voltaire 5,183]

Trump is beatable. You've spent ten years painting him as Orange Hitler.  Ideally, you'd toss both Joe and Kamala over the side and get somebody else.  After exerting all this effort to get Joe to step aside, can you do that all over again a second time on Kamala and also get her to shut up and not throw a fit?

You're the party of DEI (among 1000 other bad ideas). You have to put Kamala up. You need a talented talker like Clinton or Obama but you're not going to identify that person on such short notice and promote him/her/ze/it. if you do, your Kamala faction will shriek like banshees and split the party when she gets skipped over.

Maybe she has it in her to not fock this up, probably not, but then you also have her out of the way for 2028 as well and can get a fresh start.

My ideal, since I loathe everything the 2024 Democrats stand for, is to run Joe and lose. Then in 2028,  watching the Dems twist themselves into a pretzel trying to either avoid their DEI border czar Kamala and fail, or succeed and suffer the fury of their intersectional adulteress scorned. I want to save hearing /singing the sweet music of "the only reason to not support Kamala is racism and sexism" for the Dem primaries in 2028. 

In addition to being 100 times more competent and intelligent, JD Vance speaks the language of forgotten voters of the Rust Belt in out native tongue and more eloquently than the rest of us, meanwhile repulsive DEI VP Kamala was hatched in San Francfreako from an egg that originated on Mars and has zero appeal to Blue Wall voters. That's a wonderful matchup for 2028, especially if he spends 2024 in all these swing voting states as a warm up introducing himself.

[Sean Mooney 1,937]

1 hour ago, Voltaire said:

Trump is beatable. You've spent ten years painting him as Orange Hitler.  Ideally, you'd toss both Joe and Kamala over the side and get somebody else.  After exerting all this effort to get Joe to step aside, can you do that all over again a second time on Kamala and also get her to shut up and not throw a fit?

You're the party of DEI (among 1000 other bad ideas). You have to put Kamala up. You need a talented talker like Clinton or Obama but you're not going to identify that person on such short notice and promote him/her/ze/it. if you do, your Kamala faction will shriek like banshees and split the party when she gets skipped over.

Maybe she has it in her to not fock this up, probably not, but then you also have her out of the way for 2028 as well and can get a fresh start.

My ideal, since I loathe everything the 2024 Democrats stand for, is to run Joe and lose. Then in 2028,  watching the Dems twist themselves into a pretzel trying to either avoid their DEI border czar Kamala and fail, or succeed and suffer the fury of their intersectional adulteress scorned. I want to save hearing /singing the sweet music of "the only reason to not support Kamala is racism and sexism" for the Dem primaries in 2028. 

In addition to being 100 times more competent and intelligent, JD Vance speaks the language of forgotten voters of the Rust Belt in out native tongue and more eloquently than the rest of us, meanwhile repulsive DEI VP Kamala was hatched in San Francfreako from an egg that originated on Mars and has zero appeal to Blue Wall voters. That's a wonderful matchup for 2028, especially if he spends 2024 in all these swing voting states as a warm up introducing himself.

If the Democrats lose in 2024 Kamala won't be close to the candidate in 2028...There are far better candidates behind her that won't have the stigma of 2024 or the Biden administration. 

 

[Hardcore troubadour 14,927]

If you’re considering voting for Harris then you aren’t a serious person and will vote for whoever they tell you to. Why bother paying attention anymore? 

[nobody 2,562]

Running Michelle Obama would probably be a mistake.  You want to talk about demographics that wouldn't vote for a black woman?  Look no further than black men and Hispanic men.

[Hardcore troubadour 14,927]

3 minutes ago, nobody said:

Running Michelle Obama would probably be a mistake.  You want to talk about demographics that wouldn't vote for a black woman?  Look no further than black men and Hispanic men.

Plus the resting bich face.  

[RLLD 4,143]

7 minutes ago, nobody said:

Running Michelle Obama would probably be a mistake.  You want to talk about demographics that wouldn't vote for a black woman?  Look no further than black men and Hispanic men.

I think she is smart enough to not even put herself in this position.  Right now they are a mess over there.

But it would make so much sense for them to do this very thing.  They can use gender/race as a shield so no one could ever honestly assess her for the role, she is effectively immune to any criticism.

[TimHauck 2,614]

14 minutes ago, nobody said:

Running Michelle Obama would probably be a mistake.  You want to talk about demographics that wouldn't vote for a black woman?  Look no further than black men and Hispanic men.

Why not?

[HellToupee 1,584]

18 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

Trump is a very weak candidate. There’s an opportunity to pounce here and plenty are probably willing to take it.

In ‘28, who knows. Maybe Vance is popular with MAGA but doesn’t have all the baggage of Trump. That might be pretty hard to beat.

MAGA is set for at least a solid 12 year run. Should be 16 since Donald’s first 4 years were stolen from him but set that aside for now.