Coronavirus - Doomsday

[nobody 2,044]

I think the Santa Clara study and the LA study both indicate a mortality rate about 0.1% and a hospitalization rate at about 0.35%.

That means we're looking at 330k deaths, but the problem is we can't handle a 0.35% hospitalization rate.  Backing out the numbers, LA county can only handle about 1.5 million infections at any one time before the hospitals are overrun.  If the number of infections doubles every 5 days, and even 0.01% of the population has it right now, 1.5 million people would have it in 45 days (accumulating cases), if it doubles every 4 days, that's about a month.

At least we have some real data to make decisions with.  A general rule of thumb for me is that infections will need to be less than available ICU beds * 1000.  ie, 1 in 1000 infected person will need an ICU bed.

The bad news is we have to stay on lock down until we get a treatment to lower that ICU rate or we build up our ICU capability.  If I was mayor of LA and we could get to a point where number of infected being able to be treated + number of past infections > 4 million, I'd open it up.  Right now we're at about 2 million (about 500k had infection + ability to treat 1.5 million infected).

I chose 4 million as the benchmark because:

1. 10% of people will still quarantine out of fear
2. Continued social distancing and masking up will slow the spread hopefully allowing the max infection numbers to not be breached
3. After about 40% of the population gets it, the spread will automatically slow due to not having as many people to infect

I don't have a fancy model to this arithmetic though.

[KSB2424 3,083]

13 minutes ago, nobody said:

I think the Santa Clara study and the LA study both indicate a mortality rate about 0.1% and a hospitalization rate at about 0.35%.

That means we're looking at 330k deaths, but the problem is we can't handle a 0.35% hospitalization rate.  Backing out the numbers, LA county can only handle about 1.5 million infections at any one time before the hospitals are overrun.  If the number of infections doubles every 5 days, and even 0.01% of the population has it right now, 1.5 million people would have it in 45 days (accumulating cases), if it doubles every 4 days, that's about a month.

At least we have some real data to make decisions with.  A general rule of thumb for me is that infections will need to be less than available ICU beds * 1000.  ie, 1 in 1000 infected person will need an ICU bed.

The bad news is we have to stay on lock down until we get a treatment to lower that ICU rate or we build up our ICU capability.  If I was mayor of LA and we could get to a point where number of infected being able to be treated + number of past infections > 4 million, I'd open it up.  Right now we're at about 2 million (about 500k had infection + ability to treat 1.5 million infected).

I chose 4 million as the benchmark because:

1. 10% of people will still quarantine out of fear
2. Continued social distancing and masking up will slow the spread hopefully allowing the max infection numbers to not be breached
3. After about 40% of the population gets it, the spread will automatically slow due to not having as many people to infect

I don't have a fancy model to this arithmetic though.

It's seems so obvious, but I've never even considered the bolded. 

People are going to die, they just are....its no one person, at least in America's "fault".  We did not cause this virus....forget politics..... it was going to come here no matter HOW much or how early we started mitigating.  This thing seems to spread extremely easily....more-so than most other respiratory diseases / viruses.

I do find it really odd / fascinating / kinda scary that it seems to act so much differently in people.  The fact a virus can seemingly have zero symptoms on one person then ravage another is insane to me. 

 

[KSB2424 3,083]

1 hour ago, jerryskids said:

Georgia to reopen some businesses as early as Friday

 

 

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/kemp-shuttered-georgia-businesses-reopen-friday-70250918

Seems a bit early, but its not everything.  Large mass gathering are still out.  Takeout orders only at restaurants.  I don't know the numbers in Atlanta but if I was a Governor the Federal Task Force put out some guidelines to opening back up.  Something like 14 days of declining numbers yada yada.  I'd be damn certain I follow that as I wouldn't want to NOT follow it and it bite me in the arse.

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

Isn’t Georgia the state where the Governor didn’t know that people could transmit the disease if they were asymptomatic? Seems like he is not following Trump’s criteria and is jumping the gun a little bit.

Maybe his lack of knowledge is impacting his thinking on why opening gyms is risky. Not sure whether he thinks that, up to this point, a home rowing machine was restricted.

[TimmySmith 2,782]

16 hours ago, FeelingMN said:

His rate was 10x lower than the study he was citing.  If you're trying to say he was implying that the Deep State is inflating the numbers to justify their means in handling this, then by taking his rate you'd say only about 4,000 people have truly died from covid.  That'd put us in the China neighborhood of numbers.

Yeah.....I'm gonna say you guys are wrong.

I am asking what's the rate of positive Covid19 cases who have died?  That would be the most clear, known mortality rate.  Shouldn't be a hard number to find. 

[Hawkeye21 1,855]

5 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

I am asking what's the rate of positive Covid19 cases who have died?  That would be the most clear, known mortality rate.  Shouldn't be a hard number to find. 

Isn't the US at 5% right now?  That's deaths out of total cases right now.

[edjr 5,568]

 

[Strike 3,980]

27 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Isn't the US at 5% right now?  That's deaths out of total cases right now.

No.

[Hawkeye21 1,855]

1 minute ago, Strike said:

No.

What is it then?

[Strike 3,980]

Just now, Hawkeye21 said:

What is it then?

Do your own focking research.  As I've said, trying to have a discussion with you is worthless.  But it's nowhere near 5%.  Re-read this thread  People have been posting studies and data daily.

[Hawkeye21 1,855]

6 minutes ago, Strike said:

Do your own focking research.  As I've said, trying to have a discussion with you is worthless.  But it's nowhere near 5%.  Re-read this thread  People have been posting studies and data daily.

Quit being such a focking a$$ all the time.  I looked on worldometer and got the numbers from there.  You said I was wrong so why can't you show me why?  Pretty standard discussion procedure but you're rarely capable of it, just insults.

[Alias Detective 1,179]

33 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Isn't the US at 5% right now?  That's deaths out of total cases right now.

I see this as the number too.  Based on the data below.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?fbclid=IwAR31SziNf-1CYru3ZDsq3CTDweyWm4ctxcIZRbsFmtPPGQ_8O0JbDdifGT0#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[Alias Detective 1,179]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Quit being such a focking a$$ all the time.  I looked on worldometer and got the numbers from there.  You said I was wrong so why can you show me why?  Pretty standard discussion procedure but you're rarely capable of it, just insults.

I can be a dic and know it.  Strike is a dic and doesn’t know it.

[jerryskids 5,210]

Interesting note from Worldometer:

Quote

NOTES:

In accordance with new CDC guidelines:

• New York: the numbers shown below include probable deaths (and, consequently, probable cases for the same number) as reported by New York City
• Maryland: includes probable deaths, as reported by the Department of Health (Section: "COVID-19 Statistics in Maryland")
• Wyoming: includes probable cases, as reported by the Department of Health

So for NY, which has almost 1/2 of the deaths, mostly in the NYC area, the data is actually "probable" COVID-19 deaths. 

[Strike 3,980]

8 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

I see this as the number too.  Based on the data below.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?fbclid=IwAR31SziNf-1CYru3ZDsq3CTDweyWm4ctxcIZRbsFmtPPGQ_8O0JbDdifGT0#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Cool.  You two can be ignorant together. 

[Strike 3,980]

10 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Quit being such a focking a$$ all the time.  I looked on worldometer and got the numbers from there.  You said I was wrong so why can't you show me why?  Pretty standard discussion procedure but you're rarely capable of it, just insults.

From the first focking post on this page:

Quote

I think the Santa Clara study and the LA study both indicate a mortality rate about 0.1% and a hospitalization rate at about 0.35%.

You're welcome to google the two studies mentioned if you want to confirm but is it too much to ask that you read the actual focking thread you're posting in before posting ignorance?

[nospk 230]

53 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

I am asking what's the rate of positive Covid19 cases who have died?  That would be the most clear, known mortality rate.  Shouldn't be a hard number to find. 

In my zip code, which has a higher number of positive cases than most of the surrounding area, there have been 18 deaths out of 154 positive tested. Thats 11.7%. There are just over 23,000 people in this zip code

[Alias Detective 1,179]

Just now, Strike said:

From the first focking post on this page:

You're welcome to google the two studies mentioned if you want to confirm but is it too much to ask that you read the actual focking thread you're posting in before posting ignorance?

Fake News.  Prove it to be right dic.

[jerryskids 5,210]

And also from Worldometer, from the link to "new CDC guidelines"
 

Quote

On April 14, New York City reported 3,778 additional deaths that have occurred since March 11 and have been classified as "probable," defined as follows: “decedent [...] had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the death certificate lists as a cause of death “COVID-19” or an equivalent" [source]. 

From April 14 onward, New York City has provided - and will continue to provide -  the updated number of probable deaths in its daily reports.

 

[MTSkiBum 1,594]

26 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

What is it then?

Most likely it is somewhere between 0.2 and 1.5%.

 

For example ~4% of LA county has antibodies and currently 670 people have died. If we use the number of people who have had it in LA county in the article we can estimate the mortality rate.

 

(670/221,000)x100 = .3% mortality

(670/442,000)x100 = .15% mortality

However, this needs to be adjusted slightly since it takes on average 25 days for someone who gets covid-19 to reach conclusion. There are additional people out of that currently infected who will most likely pass away adjusting the mortality up slightly.

 

http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328

[Strike 3,980]

1 minute ago, Alias Detective said:

Fake News.  Prove it to be right dic.

No need.  As I said, you two can be ignorant together.

[Strike 3,980]

2 minutes ago, jerryskids said:

And also from Worldometer, from the link to "new CDC guidelines"
 

 

The real problem with their "math" is that it's based simply on people who have been diagnosed with Covid but the evidence is showing that there are massive numbers of people who have never been diagnosed because they don't show symptoms.  It's like saying that the mortality rate of people shot by a gun is 100% based upon those cases in the morgue.  That's where the antibody tests come in.  With those they can do random samples of people and determine how many have had the virus at some point, regardless of whether they were diagnosed. 

[Alias Detective 1,179]

6 minutes ago, Strike said:

No need.  As I said, you two can be ignorant together.

Ahhhh, take your 3000 person sample and shove it up your you know what.  I’ll stick to the current data I linked not a hypothesis based on a 3000 person sample.

Now, maybe more data will support your stance, until then, calling someone ignorant is...well you being a dic.

[Strike 3,980]

1 minute ago, Alias Detective said:

Ahhhh, take your 3000 person sample and shove it up your you know what.  I’ll stick to the current data I linked not a hypothesis based on a 3000 person sample.

Now, maybe more data will support your stance, until then, calling someone ignorant is...well you being a dic.

There are multiple studies showing the same thing.  You discounting it based upon the sample size is ignoring science and......ignorant.

[TimmySmith 2,782]

56 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Isn't the US at 5% right now?  That's deaths out of total cases right now.

I agree with the 5% number.  I just don't quite understand how they arrive at it.  

Read the CDC determination below. 

Quote

A4. Vital Records Criteria A death certificate that lists COVID-19 disease or SARS-CoV-2 as a cause of death or a significant condition contributing to death. 
 
A5. Case Classifications       Confirmed:  • Meets confirmatory laboratory evidence. 
 
Probable:  • Meets clinical criteria AND epidemiologic evidence with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID-19. • Meets presumptive laboratory evidence AND either clinical criteria OR epidemiologic evidence. • Meets vital records criteria with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID19.

https://cdn.ymaws.com/www.cste.org/resource/resmgr/2020ps/Interim-20-ID-01_COVID-19.pdf

In essence, a death certificate saying you died from it means you probably had it.  Huh?

[Hawkeye21 1,855]

2 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

I agree with the 5% number.  I just don't quite understand how they arrive at it.  

Read the CDC determination below. 

https://cdn.ymaws.com/www.cste.org/resource/resmgr/2020ps/Interim-20-ID-01_COVID-19.pdf

In essence, a death certificate saying you died from it means you probably had it.  Huh?

I think a lot of the data is a mess right now.

[Bert 1,092]

How many more cases do we get simply because now hospitals get more money for each COVID-19 diagnosis?  

[jerryskids 5,210]

11 minutes ago, Strike said:

The real problem with their "math" is that it's based simply on people who have been diagnosed with Covid but the evidence is showing that there are massive numbers of people who have never been diagnosed because they don't show symptoms.  It's like saying that the mortality rate of people shot by a gun is 100% based upon those cases in the morgue.  That's where the antibody tests come in.  With those they can do random samples of people and determine how many have had the virus at some point, regardless of whether they were diagnosed. 

My links suggest reductions to the numerator.  You are talking about increases to the denominator, which I agree is probably a larger issue with the data.  I merely was pointing out that people should be careful when using Worldometer data as gospel, since Worldometer itself questions the data it is receiving.

[Hawkeye21 1,855]

1 minute ago, jerryskids said:

My links suggest reductions to the numerator.  You are talking about increases to the denominator, which I agree is probably a larger issue with the data.  I merely was pointing out that people should be careful when using Worldometer data as gospel, since Worldometer itself questions the data it is receiving.

It's certainly not gospel but it is kind of a base to go off of.  I agree that there are most likely a lot more people out there who have the virus but are not confirmed and included in the numbers.  A more accurate death percentage is going to be below 5% but based on the info we have right now, that's what it is.

[MTSkiBum 1,594]

4 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

It's certainly not gospel but it is kind of a base to go off of.  I agree that there are most likely a lot more people out there who have the virus but are not confirmed and included in the numbers.  A more accurate death percentage is going to be below 5% but based on the info we have right now, that's what it is.

 

I will re-quote you again, we do have data that shows it is much lower than 5%. Most likely it is somewhere between 0.2 and 1.5%.

 

For example ~4% of LA county has antibodies and currently 670 people have died. If we use the number of people who have had it in LA county in the article we can estimate the mortality rate.

 

(670/221,000)x100 = .3% mortality

(670/442,000)x100 = .15% mortality

However, this needs to be adjusted slightly since it takes on average 25 days for someone who gets covid-19 to reach conclusion. There are additional people out of that currently infected who will most likely pass away adjusting the mortality up slightly.

 

http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328

[MTSkiBum 1,594]

 

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/04/21/coronavirus-covid-toes-may-symptom-covid-19-young-people/2994930001/

 

Doctors have identified a new symptom of COVID-19, caused by the novel coronavirus, informally dubbed “COVID toes.”  

The new symptom – a presence of purple or blue lesions on the patient’s feet and toes – is puzzling infectious disease experts. 

“They’re typically painful to touch and could have a hot burning sensation,” said Dr. Ebbing Lautenbach, chief of infectious disease at the University of Pennsylvania's School of Medicine.

What doctors say is most interesting about "COVID toes" is that it seems to appear in COVID-19 patients who don’t exhibit any symptoms. Similarly, the loss of taste and smell was also found to be associated with COVID-19 among asymptomatic patients by the American Academy of Otolaryngology – Head and Neck Surgery and ENT UK in late March.

[nospk 230]

4 minutes ago, MTSkiBum said:

 

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/04/21/coronavirus-covid-toes-may-symptom-covid-19-young-people/2994930001/

 

Doctors have identified a new symptom of COVID-19, caused by the novel coronavirus, informally dubbed “COVID toes.”  

The new symptom – a presence of purple or blue lesions on the patient’s feet and toes – is puzzling infectious disease experts. 

“They’re typically painful to touch and could have a hot burning sensation,” said Dr. Ebbing Lautenbach, chief of infectious disease at the University of Pennsylvania's School of Medicine.

What doctors say is most interesting about "COVID toes" is that it seems to appear in COVID-19 patients who don’t exhibit any symptoms. Similarly, the loss of taste and smell was also found to be associated with COVID-19 among asymptomatic patients by the American Academy of Otolaryngology – Head and Neck Surgery and ENT UK in late March.

You left out the part about this is being found more In children and younger adults

[NorthernVike 2,080]

33 minutes ago, Bert said:

How many more cases do we get simply because now hospitals get more money for each COVID-19 diagnosis?  

This.  

[kutulu 1,551]

If you have a confirmed case of covid-19 what is the chance of it being fatal?

[TimmySmith 2,782]

5 minutes ago, kutulu said:

If you have a confirmed case of covid-19 what is the chance of it being fatal?

Looking at the numbers, somewhere between 0-0.3% for 96% of people, and 95-100% for 4%.  Now which category are you in?

[kutulu 1,551]

2 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

Looking at the numbers, somewhere between 0-0.3% for 96% of people, and 95-100% for 4%.  Now which category are you in?

I haven't been tested/confirmed infected

[FeelingMN 273]

2 hours ago, TimmySmith said:

I am asking what's the rate of positive Covid19 cases who have died?  That would be the most clear, known mortality rate.  Shouldn't be a hard number to find. 

It's a hard number to find because as it has been pointed out some deaths are probable Covid, lacking the positive test result.....because there aren't enough tests.  And I will concede that all those probable deaths due to Covid....all of them....aren't due to Covid.  Some are due to something else.  What percentage is that?  Dunno....but I don't think it's a huge number.

I do think we're looking at a mortality rate around .1%.  I'll see if I can locate the article I was reading last night but there are several antibody studies going on right now around the world, including about a dozen here in the States.  As nobody pointed out above, it'd be interesting to see an antibody study focused on the NYC area.  There's no way you can apply the Cali numbers to that area.  They don't make sense.  So maybe for that area there is something shady going on....or maybe it's more widespread there.  

And to that point....not all antibodies confer immunity.  I wasn't in Digby's immunology class so I don't really understand all the details....but some antibodies can give you a positive result on a test, but they aren't the ones that will protect you going forward.  Just another wrinkle in this clusterfock.  

[TimmySmith 2,782]

Just now, kutulu said:

I haven't been tested/confirmed infected

Well then, that's easy, if you haven't been tested its 100% fatal. 

[Strike 3,980]

3 minutes ago, FeelingMN said:

It's a hard number to find because as it has been pointed out some deaths are probable Covid, lacking the positive test result.....because there aren't enough tests.  And I will concede that all those probable deaths due to Covid....all of them....aren't due to Covid.  Some are due to something else.  What percentage is that?  Dunno....but I don't think it's a huge number.

I do think we're looking at a mortality rate around .1%.  I'll see if I can locate the article I was reading last night but there are several antibody studies going on right now around the world, including about a dozen here in the States.  As nobody pointed out above, it'd be interesting to see an antibody study focused on the NYC area.  There's no way you can apply the Cali numbers to that area.  They don't make sense.  So maybe for that area there is something shady going on....or maybe it's more widespread there.  

And to that point....not all antibodies confer immunity.  I wasn't in Digby's immunology class so I don't really understand all the details....but some antibodies can give you a positive result on a test, but they aren't the ones that will protect you going forward.  Just another wrinkle in this clusterfock.  

NYC is more widespread because of population density and their heavy use of public transportation.  They've had a large number of transportation workers become infected which tells us that Covid-19 has been prevalent on buses and subways.  And the problem was how many people were exposed to it before we even knew much about it or that it had hit the U.S.

[kutulu 1,551]

6 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

Well then, that's easy, if you haven't been tested its 100% fatal. 

That's what I was afraid of