Coronavirus - Doomsday

[Hawkeye21 1,855]

1 minute ago, Strike said:

Of course we need to take it seriously.  Has anyone said not?  Why are you moving the goalposts?  This is the comment I made which led to this tangent:

Where do I suggest we not take it seriously?  I specifically qualify my stance with "once we have a vaccine."  I swear, trying to have a discussion with you is futile.

I never said you weren't taking it seriously.  There are plenty of people who are not though.  Just look at edjr's posts.

[Strike 3,980]

34 minutes ago, ZeroTolerance said:

I don't expect this to be anywhere as crazy next year. Probably still an issue, but not requiring shutting down businesses and overwhelming hospitals. Now if we could just get China to do something about those markets so the world doesn't get anal probed again when someone eats an undercooked bat. 

I think the wet market theory is pretty much dead.  Doesn't mean they shouldn't be closed but it's looking more and more like misinformation that the Chinese started to deflect from the likelihood that this came from a lab.

[FeelingMN 273]

On 4/16/2020 at 10:53 PM, Intense Observer said:

Looking back, the biggest things learned are that nursing homes are ground zero for case spread and deaths, and ventilators do more harm than good because it doesn't affect the lungs as much as the blood, and that is what causes the breathing and heart problems, lack of O² in the blood. Similar to altitude sickness.

There's only one natural way to get oxygen into the blood stream.  Your lungs.  When you get altitude sickness, you have low O2 levels because there simply isn't enough oxygen in the air.  With Covid, there's plenty of oxygen in the air but it can't get into your blood because....your lungs are shot.  

19 hours ago, Intense Observer said:

You want some real stats?

Making the real mortality rate .01%

 

14 hours ago, Intense Observer said:

That leaves a mortality rate of less than .05% and close to .01%.

At first I thought it was a typo...then saw you doubled down on dumb.  We've surpassed your "real" mortality rate....and that's if everyone in America is infected.  The real rate is probably 10x yours.  Which means if we do nothing, 350,000 people could die from this.  We have to take extreme measures to make sure that number is as low as possible.  Which makes this far from some media induced overhyped flu.  

Did you play College Baseball by chance?

[Strike 3,980]

Just now, Hawkeye21 said:

I never said you weren't taking it seriously.  There are plenty of people who are not though.  Just look at edjr's posts.

There are very small groups not taking it seriously.   The notion that it's a significant portion of our population is ridiculous.  And if there's a vaccine and everyone taking it seriously gets the vaccine, those who don't can get sick and it won't affect the rest of us.

[FeelingMN 273]

Somebody's got a bad case of the Mondays.   

[Mike Honcho 4,039]

1 hour ago, Utilit99 said:

Gotta love '+' you threw in there.

The first confirmed death in the US was Feb 29, about 6 weeks ago.   The + was for the few weeks of incubation and the small number of cases before 6 weeks ago...

My "+" was a hell of lot more accurate than you comparing an entire flu season to the partial Covid-19 season.   

 

 

[Utilit99 4,099]

16 minutes ago, Mike Honcho said:

The first confirmed death in the US was Feb 29, about 6 weeks ago.   The + was for the few weeks of incubation and the small number of cases before 6 weeks ago...

My "+" was a hell of lot more accurate than you comparing an entire flu season to the partial Covid-19 season.   

 

 

At least you try hard.

[edjr 5,568]

The world is overpopulated. This was the virus we needed

[Strike 3,980]

10 minutes ago, edjr said:

The world is overpopulated. This was the virus we needed

Yep.  We thought creating the AIDS virus would help with overpopulation as well as some other issues but alas it didn't work.

[edjr 5,568]

3 minutes ago, Strike said:

Yep.  We thought creating the AIDS virus would help with overpopulation as well as some other issues but alas it didn't work.

whomever is creating these, sure knows who to go after, that's for sure.

[porkbutt 861]

speaking of AIDS that killed 500k+ last year...why do we not talk about the fact that highest risk are men banging other dudes? why don't we ban that behavior? instead we have commercials that condone it but say take this medication?

[usurpers26 26]

1 minute ago, porkbutt said:

why do we not talk about the fact that highest risk are men banging other dudes?

user name checks out

[TimmySmith 2,782]

2 hours ago, FeelingMN said:

At first I thought it was a typo...then saw you doubled down on dumb.  We've surpassed your "real" mortality rate....and that's if everyone in America is infected.  The real rate is probably 10x yours.  Which means if we do nothing, 350,000 people could die from this.  We have to take extreme measures to make sure that number is as low as possible.  Which makes this far from some media induced overhyped flu.  

He may be talking about the mortality rate of people who have tested positive for Covid.     We should know that number, but we don't.  I wonder why not? 

[Hardcore troubadour 12,661]

5 year old girl in Detroit died from the Chinavirus. No underlying conditions. 

[MDC 5,895]

10 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

He may be talking about the mortality rate of people who have tested positive for Covid.     We should know that number, but we don't.  I wonder why not? 

Tell us Tim.

[Casual Observer 597]

18 minutes ago, porkbutt said:

speaking of AIDS that killed 500k+ last year...why do we not talk about the fact that highest risk are men banging other dudes? why don't we ban that behavior? instead we have commercials that condone it but say take this medication?

Because we need them to take Prep so they can continue their gay dance routines or whatever they were showing on that commercial that aired a million times.  Which brings me to another point - want to lower the cost of prescription meds?  Ban pharma from advertising on TV.  These ads are all over TV.  If there is a medication that is appropriate for a patient let that conversation occur between doctor and patient.

[porkbutt 861]

4 minutes ago, Casual Observer said:

Because we need them to take Prep so they can continue their gay dance routines or whatever they were showing on that commercial that aired a million times.  Which brings me to another point - want to lower the cost of prescription meds?  Ban pharma from advertising on TV.  These ads are all over TV.  If there is a medication that is appropriate for a patient let that conversation occur between doctor and patient.

yup. i don't understand  why we have med commercials.

[TimmySmith 2,782]

7 minutes ago, MDC said:

Tell us Tim.

Great stuff.   Shouldn't you be blasting small business owners for wanting to put people back to work?  

[MDC 5,895]

4 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

Great stuff.   Shouldn't you be blasting small business owners for wanting to put people back to work?  

No answer then?

[Hardcore troubadour 12,661]

6 minutes ago, porkbutt said:

yup. i don't understand  why we have med commercials.

They should be banned. Tell your doctor what’s up and they can tell you what you need. 

[TimmySmith 2,782]

3 minutes ago, MDC said:

No answer then?

To what troll?  Why a workaday guy like you hates small business owners who put people to work?  Nope. 

[MDC 5,895]

6 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

To what troll?  Why a workaday guy like you hates small business owners who put people to work?  Nope. 

Why you think we don’t have mortality rates. 

[MDC 5,895]

Harrisburg protests today. Standing shoulder to shoulder, looks like half or more of these people don’t have masks, etc. 

 

[iam90sbaby 2,125]

When we open back up does that mean we will open the borders too?

[FeelingMN 273]

3 hours ago, TimmySmith said:

He may be talking about the mortality rate of people who have tested positive for Covid.     We should know that number, but we don't.  I wonder why not? 

His rate was 10x lower than the study he was citing.  If you're trying to say he was implying that the Deep State is inflating the numbers to justify their means in handling this, then by taking his rate you'd say only about 4,000 people have truly died from covid.  That'd put us in the China neighborhood of numbers.

Yeah.....I'm gonna say you guys are wrong.

[wiffleball 4,647]

3 hours ago, iam90sbaby said:

When we open back up does that mean we will open the borders too?

You think there will be a run on book stores?

[KSB2424 3,083]

http://www.publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328

 

Quote   USC-LA County Study: Early Results of Antibody Testing Suggest Number of COVID-19 Infections Far Exceeds Number of Confirmed Cases in Los Angeles County   Los Angeles (April 20, 2020) - USC and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health (Public Health) today released preliminary results from a collaborative scientific study that suggests infections from the new coronavirus are far more widespread - and the fatality rate much lower - in L.A. County than previously thought. The results are from the first round of an ongoing study by USC researchers and Public Health officials. They will be conducting antibody testing over time on a series of representative samples of adults to determine the scope and spread of the pandemic across the county. Based on results of the first round of testing, the research team estimates that approximately 4.1% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus. Adjusting this estimate for statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus- which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have had the infection. That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county by the time of the study in early April. The number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600. "We haven't known the true extent of COVID-19 infections in our community because we have only tested people with symptoms, and the availability of tests has been limited," said lead investigator Neeraj Sood, a USC professor of public policy at USC Price School for Public Policy and senior fellow at USC Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics. "The estimates also suggest that we might have to recalibrate disease prediction models and rethink public health strategies." The results have important implications for public health efforts to control the local epidemic.

[DonS 3,067]

44 minutes ago, wiffleball said:

You think there will be a run on book stores?

I chuckled.

 

[Baker Boy 1,485]

3 hours ago, MDC said:

Harrisburg protests today. Standing shoulder to shoulder, looks like half or more of these people don’t have masks, etc. 

 

Sooner or later everyone will have to get out in public, let these people start the migration. It will be their risk. Why do you care? When would you end the shut down of our country? When you tell them it is OK to go out in public will they be able to sue if they catch it?

[nobody 2,044]

23 minutes ago, KSB2424 said:

http://www.publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328

 

Finally some real data.  

Ok current death rate is hovering around 5.3%.  Let's assume that real number of infected is 45x higher and extrapolate it out to the country.  That puts the death rate at about 0.1%. 

That can't be right, though, since we're already at 40k+ deaths.  I guess we can't extrapolate it out.   I guess the number of infected must be a much higher % on the east coast.  That or Timmy is right and we're waaaay over-inflating deaths, but I find that hard to believe.  Doctors would be going on the record by now, and other countries that don't care about politics are seeing similar death numbers.  

[FeelingMN 273]

22 minutes ago, KSB2424 said:

http://www.publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328

 

This is the second study that has confirmed higher numbers of individuals with antibodies...and a lower death rate.  It's weird though....even at a .25% mortality rate, 875,000 people die.

Obviously this all much better than having a virus that was thought to be 10x deadlier just a month ago.....but...even with higher numbers of people having supposed immunity, lots of people could still die. 

And that doesn't mean we sit around waiting for a vaccine.  It highlights how much we need antibody testing asap.  

[Hardcore troubadour 12,661]

There’s no big benefit to testing people to see if they have it. Maybe before they go into a hospital and other places like Jails and Military , but if you test negative and get it the next day what does that do? It’s the anti-bodies test thats the important one. 

[Cdub100 3,384]

5 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

There’s no big benefit to testing people to see if they have it. Maybe before they go into a hospital and other places like Jails and Military , but if you test negative and get it the next day what does that do? It’s the anti-bodies test thats the important one. 

They want plasma from people who have been infected. If you have been infected and have the antibodies that allows you to help in ways non infected people shouldn't

[Hardcore troubadour 12,661]

4 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

They want plasma from people who have been infected. If you have been infected and have the antibodies that allows you to help in ways non infected people shouldn't

Exactly. But just testing to see if you have it provides very little protection to the public beyond telling someone to quarantine themselves. I guess that’s the best part about it.  

[Cdub100 3,384]

1 minute ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Exactly. But just testing to see if you have it provides very little protection to the public beyond telling someone to quarantine themselves. I guess that’s the best part about it.  

Sure if you haven't been ill and haven't shown symptoms there's no reason to get tested.

[nobody 2,044]

19 minutes ago, FeelingMN said:

This is the second study that has confirmed higher numbers of individuals with antibodies...and a lower death rate.  It's weird though....even at a .25% mortality rate, 875,000 people die.

Obviously this all much better than having a virus that was thought to be 10x deadlier just a month ago.....but...even with higher numbers of people having supposed immunity, lots of people could still die. 

And that doesn't mean we sit around waiting for a vaccine.  It highlights how much we need antibody testing asap.  

Both studies were in California and are estimating that 3-4% of the population has had it.  Hard hit cities might be sitting on 25-30% infected for all we know.  That's the only way these numbers really make sense.

[KSB2424 3,083]

48 minutes ago, FeelingMN said:

This is the second study that has confirmed higher numbers of individuals with antibodies...and a lower death rate.  It's weird though....even at a .25% mortality rate, 875,000 people die.

Obviously this all much better than having a virus that was thought to be 10x deadlier just a month ago.....but...even with higher numbers of people having supposed immunity, lots of people could still die. 

And that doesn't mean we sit around waiting for a vaccine.  It highlights how much we need antibody testing asap.  

Agreed.  And there are just a few of these studies coming in, it could sway wildly as more and more data comes in.  Who knows, its a moving target.

With that said, I think we can safely assume that a statistically significant number of people get it and never have symptoms (or at least enough to go to a doctor), which means the death rate isn't nearly as bad as previously thought.  I'll take that as good news.   However you are right, even if the mortality rate is one half of one percent that is still a lot of deaths.

Agreed with HT that it seems this antibody test will be huge going forward. 

Hopefully, not sure if this is completely known yet, once you get the virus once you don't get it again at least for that year (until it mutates, if it even does).

Still gonna need a vaccine ASAP,  or at the very least a shot (like the normal flu) that 1.) potentially protects you if they get the strain right or 2.) at least reduces symptoms and lowers deaths.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,661]

On the subject of a vaccine, I’m not so happy that it’s being rushed. I understand why, it’s obvious, but I don’t think I want to be in the first wave that gets it. Then we will have the issue of who gets it first and everything thing that will go with the politicization of that. You know there will be cries of racism and all that. More fun to follow, bank on it. I want football back like anyone but I don’t want to see players getting to the front of the line. 

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

8 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

On the subject of a vaccine, I’m not so happy that it’s being rushed. I understand why, it’s obvious, but I don’t think I want to be in the first wave that gets it. Then we will have the issue of who gets it first and everything thing that will go with the politicization of that. You know there will be cries of racism and all that. More fun to follow, bank on it. I want football back like anyone but I don’t want to see players getting to the front of the line. 

Agree on this and the antibody testing being critical.

[jerryskids 5,211]

Georgia to reopen some businesses as early as Friday

 

Quote

 

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp says some businesses ordered closed to mitigate coronavirus threats may begin reopening statewide Friday

By

JEFF AMY Associated Press

April 20, 2020, 3:41 PM

5 min read

 

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp listens to a question from the press during a tour of a massive temporary hospital at the Georgia World Congress Center on Thursday, April 16, 2020, in Atlanta. Kemp took part in a tour of the 200-bed facility, constructed quickly in the lower levels of the Georgia World Congress Center which normally plays host to large conventions and sporting events. (AP Photo/Ron Harris, Pool)The Associated Press

ATLANTA -- Georgia's governor announced plans Monday to restart the state's economy before the end of the week, saying many businesses that closed to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus could reopen as early as Friday.

The governor in neighboring Tennessee planned to let businesses in most of his state begin reopening as soon as next week.

Georgia's timetable, one of the most aggressive in the nation, would allow gyms, hair salons, bowling alleys and tattoo parlors to reopen as long as owners follow strict social-distancing and hygiene requirements. By Monday, movie theaters may resume selling tickets, and restaurants limited to takeout orders could return to limited dine-in service.

Republican Gov. Brian Kemp said it was important to allow businesses that had been shut down a chance to get some revenue flowing.

“I think this is the right approach at the right time,” Kemp said. “We’re not just throwing the keys back to these business owners. We’re talking about people the government shut down their business.”

Bars, nightclubs and live performance venues will remain closed.

Kemp’s action comes a month after he closed many businesses and not quite three weeks after he issued a shelter-at-home order that will remain in place until April 30. Kemp said elderly and medically fragile people should continue to stay at home until May 13.

The governor said a decline in emergency room visits by people with flu-like symptoms indicates that infections are coming down.

“The bottom line is, social distancing worked,” state Public Health Commissioner Kathleen Toomey told a handful of reporters after Kemp's news conference.

Kemp acknowledged Georgia has lagged when it comes to COVID-19 testing and announced new initiatives to ramp it up.

He said the state medical college in Augusta will begin producing thousands of swabs each day for collecting test samples. The school will also offer an online app statewide that would let people with symptoms consult with a clinician and be referred for testing if warranted. Meanwhile, the Georgia National Guard will begin deploying teams to nursing homes and other long-term care facilities with equipment for administering 1,500 tests per day.

“Testing defines the battlefield and informs our long-term strategy,” Kemp said. “These efforts significantly increase our capacity as we take measured steps forward.”

In downtown Savannah, Patrick Godley’s restaurant 17 Hundred 90 has been closed for a month. His fine-dining menu doesn’t suit itself to takeout, so he just locked the doors. His cooks, waiters and dishwashers were furloughed, allowing them to draw partial unemployment benefits.

Godley said Monday he fears it’s too early to reopen for business and that doing so might trigger a new spike in infections.

“I’d rather stay closed an extra week and wipe this thing out than to open prematurely, have a second wave and have to shut down again,” he said.

Even if he did reopen next week, Godley said, he doubts he would have many customers.

“I don’t think people are going to be going out and celebrating a lot right now.”

Ian Jones, who owns four restaurants in the Atlanta area with about 100 employees, said he’s concerned that Kemp’s order could force people to reopen before they are ready because lenders and landlords might stop being forgiving. He also expressed fears that employees would have to give up unemployment benefits to return to work, but might be thrown out of work again if infection rates grow again.

“It just seems like it’s too early,” Jones said.

Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee, also a Republican, said his mandatory safer-at-home order will expire April 30, which will pave the way for 89 of the state’s 95 counties to begin opening businesses.

Lee’s announcement did not apply to counties with the largest cities, including Davidson, Hamilton, Knox, Madison, Shelby and Sullivan counties — areas that are not overseen by Tennessee’s Department of Health but have their own public health districts.

Lee said officials were "working directly with our major metropolitan areas to ensure they are in a position to reopen as soon and safely as possible.”

Some businesses will be allowed to reopen as early as April 27, but it was unclear exactly which ones will be granted such clearance. Lee told reporters that details would be finalized later this week.

Georgia’s death toll from COVID-19 rose above 700 as new numbers were reported Monday. Infections have been confirmed in nearly 19,000 people.

Kemp's announcement followed calls from President Donald Trump and protesters to lift restrictions.

Automaker Kia planned to reopen its manufacturing plant in west Georgia next week after a nearly monthlong shutdown that the company attributed to supply chain shortages and concerns about the virus. Plant spokesman Rick Douglas did not give a specific reopening date.

On Monday, about 40 workers at the plant began making face shields to help offset a shortage of protective gear for medical workers and first responders. The company said those workers are having their temperatures scanned and are being provided with masks and gloves. Their workstations are arranged to enforce social distancing. Douglas said similar safeguards will be used when the rest of Kia’s Georgia employees return to work next week.

For most people, the coronavirus causes mild or moderate symptoms. For some, it can cause severe illness such as pneumonia or death.

———

Associated Press Writer Russ Bynum in Savannah, Georgia, contributed to this report.

———

Follow AP coverage of the virus outbreak at https://apnews.com/VirusOutbreak and https://apnews.com/UnderstandingtheOutbreak.

 

 

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/kemp-shuttered-georgia-businesses-reopen-friday-70250918