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Coronavirus - Doomsday

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2 minutes ago, Strike said:

Link?   I looked at their link to their methods, which I found a bit wanting, but the word "August" is not mentioned once and I see to specific list of assumptions.  I assume you are looking at something different.  My link:

http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

 

The below quote(and a few similar quotes)and they are projecting the epidemic to last late July/early August.

 

 

The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths.

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21 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

It is funny that the people wanting the data now are pointing to low numbers, but are ignoring the fact that we are just at the beginning.  We can count the bodies at the end and then see that it is not the flu.  In the meantime, it would be great to know how many have it, but we don't have the testing capabilities to do that still.  

I'd rather see the numbers in addition to listen to a bunch of people guessing what will happen.  And guessing is exactly what is happening.  Doctors all over the world a theorizing and we have listened and reacted with the social distancing.

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24 minutes ago, MTSkiBum said:

 

The below quote(and a few similar quotes)and they are projecting the epidemic to last late July/early August.

 

 

The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths.

1)  It sounds like you're the one making assumptions.

2)  Even if they predict the pandemic to last through August that does not equate with us keeping the "country shut down" until then as you said in the post I replied to. 

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11 minutes ago, Strike said:

1)  It sounds like you're the one making assumptions.

2)  Even if they predict the pandemic to last through August that does not equate with us keeping the "country shut down" until then as you said in the post I replied to. 

 

We can agree to disagree on the interpretation of their assumptions. :cheers:

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1 hour ago, Bert said:

I'm not saying it's not.  I would like to see how bad the regular flu season this was/is this year compared to other years and how fast the regular flu numbers are increasing.

The heat map I've repeatedly linked to shows that the flu-like (flu + covid) fevers have plummeted in the past week.  In EVERY county in the country, even NY metro and Nawlins area.  In the end, if anyone has and releases the data, those deaths will be significantly less than historical flu-only averages.  As MTSkiBum points out, this is due to the measures we are taking, so I'm not saying that they don't help.  But at some point, at the risk of quoting Trump, the cure will be worse than the disease.

https://healthweather.us/, click on the Trends tab, click on your county and look at the graph underneath the map.

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I had to head down to the office in order to grab some hardware.  Nice to see the junkies across from my office practicing social distancing by sitting side by side while shooting up.  As an added bonus the POS on the right chucked his orange needle cap into the street when he was done.  Just like cockroaches after a nuclear war I have a feeling that these upstanding citizens will survive COVID just fine.

https://i.postimg.cc/BvDFgQKN/20200331-121251.jpg

 

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18 minutes ago, DonS said:

I had to head down to the office in order to grab some hardware.  Nice to see the junkies across from my office practicing social distancing by sitting side by side while shooting up.  As an added bonus the POS on the right chucked his orange needle cap into the street when he was done.  Just like cockroaches after a nuclear war I have a feeling that these upstanding citizens will survive COVID just fine.

https://i.postimg.cc/BvDFgQKN/20200331-121251.jpg

 

of course, they live on the streets, their immunities are higher than normal people

 

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35 minutes ago, jerryskids said:

The heat map I've repeatedly linked to shows that the flu-like (flu + covid) fevers have plummeted in the past week.  In EVERY county in the country, even NY metro and Nawlins area.  In the end, if anyone has and releases the data, those deaths will be significantly less than historical flu-only averages.  As MTSkiBum points out, this is due to the measures we are taking, so I'm not saying that they don't help.  But at some point, at the risk of quoting Trump, the cure will be worse than the disease.

https://healthweather.us/, click on the Trends tab, click on your county and look at the graph underneath the map.

So, two questions:

- how many will die from the economic impact of the current stay-at-home orders?

- how many deaths will the break even point be for the cure to be better than the disease? Is it 50k, 100k, 200k, etc.?

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5 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

So, two questions:

- how many will die from the economic impact of the current stay-at-home orders?

- how many deaths will the break even point be for the cure to be better than the disease? Is it 50k, 100k, 200k, etc.?

How would that number be determined?

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6 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

How would that number be determined?

Trump said that people will die from the economic impact when he was touting Easter. I have never heard how many. Is it 5?

If the “cure is worse than the disease” then we need to be able to compare the two. Right?

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1 minute ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

Trump said that people will die from the economic impact when he was touting Easter. I have never heard how many. Is it 5?

If the “cure is worse than the disease” then we need to be able to compare the two. Right?

I understand that but how would one determine the number from the cure?  It's not like determining the number of people dying from a virus.

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1 minute ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I understand that but how would one determine the number from the cure?  It's not like determining the number of people dying from a virus.

Both are a totally wild ass guess, but at least the estimates for deaths under social distancing and stay-at-home are shared and can be debated 

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Just now, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

Both are a totally wild ass guess, but at least the estimates for deaths under social distancing and stay-at-home are shared and can be debated 

Wouldn't deaths by a virus be much easier to determine?

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58 minutes ago, jerryskids said:

The heat map I've repeatedly linked to shows that the flu-like (flu + covid) fevers have plummeted in the past week.  In EVERY county in the country, even NY metro and Nawlins area.  In the end, if anyone has and releases the data, those deaths will be significantly less than historical flu-only averages.  As MTSkiBum points out, this is due to the measures we are taking, so I'm not saying that they don't help.  But at some point, at the risk of quoting Trump, the cure will be worse than the disease.

https://healthweather.us/, click on the Trends tab, click on your county and look at the graph underneath the map.

Thanks

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THIS SUCKS!!! RELEASE THE HOUNDS!

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1 hour ago, DonS said:

I had to head down to the office in order to grab some hardware.  Nice to see the junkies across from my office practicing social distancing by sitting side by side while shooting up.  As an added bonus the POS on the right chucked his orange needle cap into the street when he was done.  Just like cockroaches after a nuclear war I have a feeling that these upstanding citizens will survive COVID just fine.

https://i.postimg.cc/BvDFgQKN/20200331-121251.jpg

 

Speaking of which.  Why hasn't this virus devastated the homeless? Has living on the streets given them stronger immune systems?  :dunno:

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2 minutes ago, Bert said:

Speaking of which.  Why hasn't this virus devastated the homeless? Has living on the streets given them stronger immune systems?  :dunno:

Perhaps we've found the cure!

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2 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Wouldn't deaths by a virus be much easier to determine?

My guess is that they would be closer to being right.  I am not sure what you are asking me.  I was trying to understand what Trump meant when he said one week ago,

Quote

 

"I’m not looking — I’m not looking at months, I can tell you right now.  We’re going to be opening up our country, and we’re going to be watching certain areas.  And we’re going to be practicing everything that — that Deborah is referring to right here.  I mean, we’re going to be watching this very closely.  But you can’t keep it closed for the next, you know, for years.  Okay?

This is going away.  We’re — we’re going to win the battle, but we also have — you know, you have tremendous responsibility. We have jobs, we have — people get tremendous anxiety and depression, and you have suicides over things like this when you have terrible economies.  You have death.  Probably and — I mean, definitely would be in far greater numbers than the numbers that we’re talking about with regard to the virus."

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Gladiators said:

Perhaps we've found the cure!

I can see the headline now: "3 Nigerians Die After Trump Touts Heroin As A Coronavirus Cure!!!" 

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5 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

My guess is that they would be closer to being right.  I am not sure what you are asking me.  I was trying to understand what Trump meant when he said one week ago,

 

I was referring to this, "how many will die from the economic impact of the current stay-at-home orders?  How would deaths from the economic impact be determined.

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9 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I was referring to this, "how many will die from the economic impact of the current stay-at-home orders?  How would deaths from the economic impact be determined.

I know!!!!!  I never said that there would be any people that die from the economic impact.  Trump did, so I am trying to figure out WTF he is talking about.  Hence the focking question. 

Go ask one of the Trumpettes how you could determine the number.

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Just now, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

I know!!!!!  I never said that there would be any people that die from the economic impact.  Trump did, so I am trying to figure out WTF he is talking about.  Hence the focking question. 

Go ask one of the Trumpettes how you could determine the number.

Pretty simple.  You throw together a graph and a chart, tell everyone you ran it through a computer simulation and make the number of deaths higher than the coronavirus deaths...voila

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We all cannot stay in our houses for a year, the economy would come to a stop or close to it.  America would go into a depression.  People would suffer, there would be more homelessness, hunger, crime et al.  Death rates would be hard to quantify for multiple reasons though as suicide rates would go up, but car accidents would go down.  However peoples 401(k)'s, all they've worked for would vanish right before our eyes.  We cannot do 2 Trillion dollar packages every month for that long, the well will run dry.

On the other hand we are in a global pandemic and the social distancing, shutting down of non-essential gatherings, so on is the the right call to "flatten the curve" of transmission - sickness - death.

So what the gov't (State and Federal) is doing is listening to the experts to try and find at which point in time has the curve flattened, exactly how do we go back to normalcy, is it a tiered approach, can we get a vaccine, can we get medication that helps, can we get better testing, does temperature / humidity factor, etc etc.

Right now, what we are doing, will go on for another month, April 30th is the goal, another checkpoint.  Hopefully we can reach it, but this is uncharted waters and everything is being constantly assessed and reassessed. 

I just don't see a reason to argue about exact dates at this point in time. :dunno:

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2 minutes ago, KSB2424 said:

We all cannot stay in our houses for a year, the economy would come to a stop or close to it.  America would go into a depression.  People would suffer, there would be more homelessness, hunger, crime et al.  Death rates would be hard to quantify for multiple reasons though as suicide rates would go up, but car accidents would go down.  However peoples 401(k)'s, all they've worked for would vanish right before our eyes.  We cannot do 2 Trillion dollar packages every month for that long, the well will run dry.

On the other hand we are in a global pandemic and the social distancing, shutting down of non-essential gatherings, so on is the the right call to "flatten the curve" of transmission - sickness - death.

So what the gov't (State and Federal) is doing is listening to the experts to try and find at which point in time has the curve flattened, exactly how do we go back to normalcy, is it a tiered approach, can we get a vaccine, can we get medication that helps, can we get better testing, does temperature / humidity factor, etc etc.

Right now, what we are doing, will go on for another month, April 30th is the goal, another checkpoint.  Hopefully we can reach it, but this is uncharted waters and everything is being constantly assessed and reassessed. 

I just don't see a reason to argue about exact dates at this point in time. :dunno:

That is a lucid, intelligent, very well thought out objection.

 

Overruled.

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1 hour ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

Trump said that people will die from the economic impact when he was touting Easter. I have never heard how many. Is it 5?

If the “cure is worse than the disease” then we need to be able to compare the two. Right?

It's 30 million.  30 million people will die unless we open back up by Easter.  Their blood will be on your hands.

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1 hour ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

So, two questions:

- how many will die from the economic impact of the current stay-at-home orders?

- how many deaths will the break even point be for the cure to be better than the disease? Is it 50k, 100k, 200k, etc.?

For the first question, I read the rest of the thread and share your questions.  Although my earlier comment did not include the thousands of people saved from traffic fatalities.  Although, I was on the road today and a car blew through a red light a solid second after it turned red, I wonder if people are starting to go Mad Max out there.

For the second question, my point is that we will NOT hit the normal flu-only annual deaths.  The question is at what point we feel the curve is sufficiently flattened to not overrun health care capabilities (which, based on the data I showed, should NOT happen except for potentially a few outlier areas).

We are currently at 3700+ covid deaths nationwide, but I am very confident that at this time last year we had a higher number of flu deaths.  No way we get anywhere near 6 figures from covid.  Frankly I'd be surprised at 20K at this point.  Given the procedures in place I believe the vast majority of cases are in flight already.  We should see the numbers coming down in a few weeks.

My wife is a data wonk and is tracking actual vs. predicted deaths in our county.  "Predicted" is a doubling every 3 days, as long as we haven't hit the knee in the curve to start the downturn.  It's early but we may have started the downturn, in deaths anyway (which is more important than confirmed cases -- those numbers will continue to rise as we roll out tests, but then again the mortality rate will go down relatedly).

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2 hours ago, jerryskids said:

Nawlins area.  

Has Bunny been accounted for?  I would assume he has some level of immunity by sweating alcohol.

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you can determine additional deaths by looking at each suicide and see if there is an underlying connection to the financial crisis of 2019.  Did that person lose their job, their house, etc

 

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China claims 3200 deaths and 82,000 cases. The US says 3500 deaths and 180,000 cases. No fockin way.  China is evil and the enemy. When this is over the American people have to say enough with them. It’s only the elite that benefit from dealing with China. I can pay more for the junk I get from that shithole. And oh yeah, fock General Motors. Fock them hard.  

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31 minutes ago, jerryskids said:

For the first question, I read the rest of the thread and share your questions.  Although my earlier comment did not include the thousands of people saved from traffic fatalities.  Although, I was on the road today and a car blew through a red light a solid second after it turned red, I wonder if people are starting to go Mad Max out there.

For the second question, my point is that we will NOT hit the normal flu-only annual deaths.  The question is at what point we feel the curve is sufficiently flattened to not overrun health care capabilities (which, based on the data I showed, should NOT happen except for potentially a few outlier areas).

We are currently at 3700+ covid deaths nationwide, but I am very confident that at this time last year we had a higher number of flu deaths.  No way we get anywhere near 6 figures from covid.  Frankly I'd be surprised at 20K at this point.  Given the procedures in place I believe the vast majority of cases are in flight already.  We should see the numbers coming down in a few weeks.

My wife is a data wonk and is tracking actual vs. predicted deaths in our county.  "Predicted" is a doubling every 3 days, as long as we haven't hit the knee in the curve to start the downturn.  It's early but we may have started the downturn, in deaths anyway (which is more important than confirmed cases -- those numbers will continue to rise as we roll out tests, but then again the mortality rate will go down relatedly).

Flu is something like 40,000 deaths this season. Should we make a bet that there are more (or less) than 100k deaths from COVID-19?

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There have been many stories of business leaders stepping to the plate during this crisis, here is another.  I always thought this dude was a bit of a wack job but good on him.  His simulated self is A-ok in my book.  

 

SAN FRANCISCO (KRON) – Tesla CEO Elon Musk on Tuesday announced his company has extra FDA-approved ventilators for hospitals around the world in dire need of more medical equipment to combat the coronavirus.

In a tweet, Musk said the free ventilators will ship to hospitals worldwide “within Tesla delivery regions” at no charge.

Musk added that the only requirement for obtaining the ventilators is they be used “immediately for patients, not stored in a warehouse.”

 

Just last week Musk donated more than 1,200 ventilators to California officials to help with hospitals providing treatment for patients with coronavirus.

Musk said the devices were purchased from China and airlifted to the state, tweeting: “China had an oversupply, so we bought 1255 FDA-approved ResMed, Philips & Medtronic ventilators on Friday night and air-shipped them to LA. If you want a free ventilator installed, please let us know!”

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8 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

China claims 3200 deaths and 82,000 cases. The US says 3500 deaths and 180,000 cases. No fockin way.  China is evil and the enemy. When this is over the American people have to say enough with them. It’s only the elite that benefit from dealing with China. I can pay more for the junk I get from that shithole. And oh yeah, fock General Motors. Fock them hard.  

I'm so disgusted with china I cant put it in words.   Fock everything about them.

And no for focks sake I dont mean the Chinese folks living in my neighborhood.  But if it exists within their borders I want nothing to do with them. 

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2 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

And no for focks sake I dont mean the Chinese folks living in my neighborhood.

They are prolly covert agents or spies.

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Nice to see the recovery numbers. Would also be nice to have an accurate contracted number, but oh well.

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17 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

China claims 3200 deaths and 82,000 cases. The US says 3500 deaths and 180,000 cases. No fockin way.  China is evil and the enemy. When this is over the American people have to say enough with them. It’s only the elite that benefit from dealing with China. I can pay more for the junk I get from that shithole. And oh yeah, fock General Motors. Fock them hard.  

Fock walmart. They are the ones that made billions as a middleman from china to us.

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Fock the US citizens. They’re ultimately in control. The overwhelming majority want everything for as cheap as possible. Cheap labor and significantly more lax safety and pollution restrictions means sending manufacturing outside our country. We reap what we sow.

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13 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

Fock walmart. They are the ones that made billions as a middleman from china to us.

Yup. Move those factories to Africa or Mexico. Enough. China blew it. 

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