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Coronavirus - Doomsday

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28 minutes ago, edjr said:

 

can we open the focking country back up please? it's not that bad. Shocker!

We need beds!!!  40,0000 ventilators!  STAT!  

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10 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

We need beds!!!  40,0000 ventilators!  STAT!  

Wow, that is a death rate of 0.6%!

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18 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

We need beds!!!  40,0000 ventilators!  STAT!  

I give the man credit for admitting he was wrong. Yet, I didn't hear him say "lets open sh1t back up!"

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3 minutes ago, edjr said:

I give the man credit for admitting he was wrong. Yet, I didn't hear him say "lets open sh1t back up!"

He absolutely panicked.  Trump stayed calm.  I like calm.

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5 minutes ago, Gladiators said:

I wonder when MDC, Honcho and Herb are going to jump on Cuomo...

What part? Asking for more respirators than they may need?

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Just now, MDC said:

What part? Asking for more respirators than they may need?

40,000!! and 10,000 BEDS!!

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Just now, edjr said:

40,000!! and 10,000 BEDS!!

I officially condemn him for possibly being wrong. You can take that to the bank! :thumbsup: 

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3 minutes ago, edjr said:

40,000!! and 10,000 BEDS!!

We need the Federal stockpile!  We need your state’s healthcare workers.  Christ, med students who didn’t even graduate were given permission to practice.  
 

Pure panic.

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5 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

We need the Federal stockpile!  We need your state’s healthcare workers.  Christ, med students who didn’t even graduate were given permission to practice.  
 

Pure panic.

83% of them croaked anyway.

 

but in all honesty. now that we know the virus has been here since 2019 and all this was for not. Why isn't anyone saying it's time to open the country back up?

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1 minute ago, edjr said:

83% of them croaked anyway.

 

but in all honesty. now that we know the virus has been here since 2019 and all this was for not. Why isn't anyone saying it's time to open the country back up?

Because Trump said it.  If Trump said stay closed liberals would be clamoring to open.

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Currently there are 11,000 deaths in NYC and it has a population of 8.4 million according to google. According to the below article 20%(1.68 million) of that population has had coronavirus.

(11,000/1,680,000)*100 = .6% this falls in line with the math in LA and santa clara.

 

 

https://www.livescience.com/covid-antibody-test-results-new-york-test.html

In New York City, the number is even higher: About 1 in 5 people tested positive for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. 

 

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My only concern with the New York study is we do not know how accurate the test is. Some of the FDA approved antibody tests such as BioMedomics Covid-19 IgM/IgG Rapid Test have a specificity of 90%.

There is still more that we do not know than what we do know.

 

https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/analysis/spotlight/covid-19-antibody-tests-face-very-specific-problem

And accuracy needs to be high. The prevalence of Covid-19 is estimated at around 5% in the US, and at this low a level the risk of false positives becomes a major problem. If a serological test has 90% specificity, its positive predictive value will be 32.1% – meaning nearly 70% of positive results will be false. At this same disease prevalence, a test with 95% specificity will lead to a 50% false positive rate. Only at 99% specificity does the false positive rate become anywhere near acceptable, and even here 16% of positive results would still be wrong. 

 

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1 hour ago, edjr said:

83% of them croaked anyway.

 

but in all honesty. now that we know the virus has been here since 2019 and all this was for not. Why isn't anyone saying it's time to open the country back up?

The states can open back up. It’s their call. Go to the message board at masstard.com and bring it up there. 

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Stay at home extended to May 15 in MI.  We can golf, boat, and landscape again.  Looks like my store could open for curbside pickup or delivery, but that doesn't really help us.  Still no installations.  

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42 minutes ago, vuduchile said:

Stay at home extended to May 15 in MI.  We can golf, boat, and landscape again.  Looks like my store could open for curbside pickup or delivery, but that doesn't really help us.  Still no installations.  

It is something. Do you have any idea what precautions you would have to take in order to do installations again? 

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1 hour ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

It is something. Do you have any idea what precautions you would have to take in order to do installations again? 

Just read about Inslee's plan for construction opening back up in WA.  Main gist is that each site would require a covid supervisor to monitor workers health and that they follow guidelines.  This is probably more for large construction projects, though.  Don't know how/if it applies to smaller jobs. 

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33 minutes ago, DonS said:

Just read about Inslee's plan for construction opening back up in WA.  Main gist is that each site would require a covid supervisor to monitor workers health and that they follow guidelines.  This is probably more for large construction projects, though.  Don't know how/if it applies to smaller jobs. 

Construction is booming here around DC. Totally essential. 

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4 hours ago, MTSkiBum said:

 

My only concern with the New York study is we do not know how accurate the test is. Some of the FDA approved antibody tests such as BioMedomics Covid-19 IgM/IgG Rapid Test have a specificity of 90%.

There is still more that we do not know than what we do know.

 

https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/analysis/spotlight/covid-19-antibody-tests-face-very-specific-problem

And accuracy needs to be high. The prevalence of Covid-19 is estimated at around 5% in the US, and at this low a level the risk of false positives becomes a major problem. If a serological test has 90% specificity, its positive predictive value will be 32.1% – meaning nearly 70% of positive results will be false. At this same disease prevalence, a test with 95% specificity will lead to a 50% false positive rate. Only at 99% specificity does the false positive rate become anywhere near acceptable, and even here 16% of positive results would still be wrong. 

 

Yes, mathematically this refers to Bayes' theorem.  That being said, we don't need a national number -- NYC for instance appears to have 20% affected, which significantly lowers the number of false positives from a statistical perspective.

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3 hours ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

It is something. Do you have any idea what precautions you would have to take in order to do installations again? 

I just got off a conference call with our Congressman Fred Upton.  He took credit for convincing Whitmer to allow boating.  He said he was disappointed that she didn't ease restrictions on residential construction.  He committed to putting real estate and construction at the top of his list to battle for, but he was really only talking about construction that takes place outdoors. 

I don't think many people are going to be comfortable allowing work crews inside their primary residences for awhile yet.  Prior to the shutdown, we'd been installing only in homes that were unoccupied.  Maybe we can get to that at some point before June, but I'm not holding my breath.  

He also said all that 2nd round PPP money is already spent.  Banks have been calling his office non-stop to find out when they can actually release the new round of funds.  He said they all have thousands of applicants already lined up from last time.  

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37 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

Construction is booming here around DC. Totally essential. 

That's the bullsh1t thing.  Out here "government" construction was business as usual.  Private construction was shut down. 

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8 minutes ago, vuduchile said:

I just got off a conference call with our Congressman Fred Upton.  He took credit for convincing Whitmer to allow boating.  He said he was disappointed that she didn't ease restrictions on residential construction.  He committed to putting real estate and construction at the top of his list to battle for, but he was really only talking about construction that takes place outdoors. 

I don't think many people are going to be comfortable allowing work crews inside their primary residences for awhile yet.  Prior to the shutdown, we'd been installing only in homes that were unoccupied.  Maybe we can get to that at some point before June, but I'm not holding my breath.  

He also said all that 2nd round PPP money is already spent.  Banks have been calling his office non-stop to find out when they can actually release the new round of funds.  He said they all have thousands of applicants already lined up from last time.  

I was asking because you will want to at least be ready to understand the implications for your work and your costs.  We have all sorts of projects that we work on for my company and we are dealing with what PPE is required in what situations and I was not sure if you could do something similar on a smaller scale.  

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2 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

I was asking because you will want to at least be ready to understand the implications for your work and your costs.  We have all sorts of projects that we work on for my company and we are dealing with what PPE is required in what situations and I was not sure if you could do something similar on a smaller scale.  

Every business has it's unique challenges during this crisis.  Here are mine from today: 

We could open and offer curbside pickup or delivery, but we'd still be out of business.   Our distribution centers in MI (Grand Rapids, Lansing and Livonia) are still only allowed to deliver for essential infrastructure projects.  So, in theory I could sell product and tell customers they can pick it up at my dock,  but I can't actually get the product to my warehouse.

 We've reached the point where we have lots of special order product hung up in transit and customers have started asking about refunds so they can look into other options.  Our policy is that special order product is non-refundable, so this is turning into a real clusterfock. 

My suppliers won't refund my accounts once the special order is placed and we've already paid for most of these orders.   Looking back, this seems like a tactical error on our part.  We've done a lot to conserve cash, but we wanted to make we got the goods here so we could start installing asap.

But these suppliers aren't not generating much cash flow right now, and won't be in any hurry to start issuing refunds.  They all lived through the last recession that saw so many stores like mine fold up and stick them with a hefty bill.  They got our money now and I'm sure they're going to keep it.  

Beyond all that, we install about 80% of the products we sell.  So if we can't install, we have no business. 

Time for the weekend.  

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10 minutes ago, iam90sbaby said:

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), with the support of Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE), is launching a bipartisan initiative to shift the United States' reliance on China for drugs and medical supplies to ally Israel.

 

https://disrn.com/news/sen-ted-cruz-rely-on-israel-rather-than-china-for-drugs-medical-supplies

 

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

I don't understand why he would propose this. The entire country of Isreal has a population that is very similar in size to the Houston metro area and I assume with less total manufacturing capacity than the Houston metro area.

 

How could it possibly meet our needs as a country. I think he is just trying to score political points and he is doing it poorly. He should have proposed his home state to manufacture the drugs.

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Biden’s top medical advisor, Dr. Zeke Emanuel, predicted we would have 100 million cases by Monday. He’s only off by 99 million. That should be a bit more troubling than Trumps gaffe. I’ll go check out CNN and their thoughts on that.  Nope, nothing. 

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5 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Biden’s top medical advisor, Dr. Zeke Emanuel, predicted we would have 100 million cases by Monday. He’s only off by 99 million. That should be a bit more troubling than Trumps gaffe. I’ll go check out CNN and their thoughts on that.  Nope, nothing. 

Well he could be right if we all did antibody testing. But then the death rate is less than a cold. Doh!  There is no truth that can satisfy the poor libs.

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1 hour ago, iam90sbaby said:

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), with the support of Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE), is launching a bipartisan initiative to shift the United States' reliance on China for drugs and medical supplies to ally Israel.

 

😂

Are we too stupid to make it ourselves?

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4 minutes ago, lod001 said:

Are we too stupid to make it ourselves?

Not oxy. Can you imagine? 

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15 hours ago, MTSkiBum said:

 

My only concern with the New York study is we do not know how accurate the test is. Some of the FDA approved antibody tests such as BioMedomics Covid-19 IgM/IgG Rapid Test have a specificity of 90%.

There is still more that we do not know than what we do know.

 

https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/analysis/spotlight/covid-19-antibody-tests-face-very-specific-problem

And accuracy needs to be high. The prevalence of Covid-19 is estimated at around 5% in the US, and at this low a level the risk of false positives becomes a major problem. If a serological test has 90% specificity, its positive predictive value will be 32.1% – meaning nearly 70% of positive results will be false. At this same disease prevalence, a test with 95% specificity will lead to a 50% false positive rate. Only at 99% specificity does the false positive rate become anywhere near acceptable, and even here 16% of positive results would still be wrong. 

 

I think 99% accuracy would give you 8% of your positives be false with 5% of the population true positive.

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10 hours ago, jerryskids said:

 

Yes, mathematically this refers to Bayes' theorem.  That being said, we don't need a national number -- NYC for instance appears to have 20% affected, which significantly lowers the number of false positives from a statistical perspective.

Base rate neglect for the win.  I actually had to explain it to my obstetrician when he thought my kid had some rare disease and she turned out fine.  It's why so many people think they have health miracles.

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49 minutes ago, wiffleball said:

Where's "the official I have Covid "thread?

 

 

It fell to page 2.  Bumped it for yay.

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Yeah, I would not be assuming the accuracy of any of the tests right now. It is reported that on me to to 3% of people with active cove in symptoms end up with resultant antibodies. So much for the antibody test.

 

The swab test? Otherwise known as PCR? Is assumed to be false negative if it comes back as anything other than positive. The test is so inaccurate and so routinely screwed up by those administering it.

 

And yeah, that's the test I'm waiting on right now.

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How about a reasonable compromise? anybody who smokes more than a pack of cigarettes a week is automatically precluded from any sort of treatments or testing.

 

Stupid f****** are busy washing their boxes of fruit loops from invisible germs while firing down known carcinogens right into their lungs. Then whining that they can't breathe.

 

Fock em. 

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At this point I want Fauci gagged. All of his reports are trying to push back any return to normalcy in the next year or two. 

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