Coronavirus - Doomsday

[Djgb13 2,339]

11 minutes ago, MTSkiBum said:

 

If that is the case then you should be a little worried for the same reason that I am worried. I have read many scientific articles about coronavirus's over the last month. I highlighted the main two sentences that stand out to me in the article you linked. They can be found in the Diagnosis, Treatment, and Prevention section if you want to verify. 

 

Quotes below:

Only limited options are available to prevent coronavirus infections. Vaccines have only been approved for IBV, TGEV, and Canine CoV, but these vaccines are not always used because they are either not very effective, or in some cases have been reported to be involved in the selection of novel pathogenic CoVs via recombination of circulating strains.

 

Owing to the lack of effective therapeutics or vaccines, the best measures to control human coronaviruses remain a strong public health surveillance system coupled with rapid diagnostic testing and quarantine when necessary.

 

 

Article is from 5 years ago. I just read about it cause I was bored and figured I’d let you read about it too. What we are dealing with is different. Still not a lot of info to go off of but it’s still not bad for healthy adults 

[MTSkiBum 1,620]

https://katu.com/news/local/watch-live-6-pm-oregon-officials-announce-first-presumptive-case-of-novel-coronavirus

 

Oregon officials announced the state’s first presumptive case of the novel (COVID-19) coronavirus Friday.

The person spent time at the Forest Hills Elementary School in the Lake Oswego School District, officials said. The person is an employee at the school and officials say the person may have spread it to students and staff there.

The Lake Oswego School District sent a robocall to parents saying that Forest Hills Elementary will be closed until Wednesday so it can be deep-cleaned by maintenance workers.

The patient lives in Washington County, according to officials, and there is no known travel related to the case. The person did not travel to any of the places in the world that has had an outbreak of the virus. Officials say that means the virus was spread within the community. Officials also said they don't believe the person came in close contact with another person with the virus.

The person began experiencing symptoms of the virus Feb. 19. The person was tested Friday and the sample was sent to the Oregon State Public Health Laboratory in Hillsboro.

The case is considered presumptive until another test is done by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to confirm.

[MTSkiBum 1,620]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/02/28/second-case-unexplained-coronavirus-appears-california-raising-fears-community-infection/4908615002

 

The nation's second case of unexplained coronavirus - in which a person emerges with the infection with no obvious indication of how the virus was transmitted - has been reported in California, health officials confirmed Friday.

Officials in San Jose said the patient was an older adult woman with chronic health conditions who does not have a travel history or any known contact with a traveler or infected person. It comes two days after state officials said a woman in Solano County had contracted the illness after no known contact.

“This new case indicates that there is evidence of community transmission but the extent is still not clear,” said Dr. Sara Cody, Health Officer for Santa Clara County and Director of the County of Santa Clara Public Health Department. "This case does signal to us that it's now time to shift how we respond to the novel coronavirus."

[naomi 356]

MTSki, since you're reading studies, check this one out: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762452

I haven't yet read about the lasting damage it may leave (a la Scarlet fever) but that's another thing Chinese researchers are trying to figure out. Not good signs on that front so far. 

[MTSkiBum 1,620]

4 minutes ago, naomi said:

MTSki, since you're reading studies, check this one out: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762452

I haven't yet read about the lasting damage it may leave (like Scarlet fever) but that's another thing the Chinese researchers are trying to figure out. Looks like there is Cris left over.

 

To quote someone I respect, although personally I would move #2 to the bottom.

 

 

Multiple potential explanations (from most to least likely, IMO):

1. Immunity is incomplete, so reinfection with the same bug is possible. Happens with other infections, like norovirus.

2. The virus mutated and she caught a new strain - despite coronavirus being mutation prone in general, some have suggested COVID-19 hasn’t shown that tendency.

3. The test of cure was a false negative.

4. The repeat test was a false positive.

5. The virus has a latent reservoir, like HIV and herpesviruses, which isn’t picked up by conventional testing. Given opportunity, it can reactivate. Nothing we know about coronoviral pathogensis suggests this occurs.

[Voltaire 5,322]

13 minutes ago, MTSkiBum said:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/02/28/second-case-unexplained-coronavirus-appears-california-raising-fears-community-infection/4908615002

 

The nation's second case of unexplained coronavirus - in which a person emerges with the infection with no obvious indication of how the virus was transmitted - has been reported in California, health officials confirmed Friday.

Officials in San Jose said the patient was an older adult woman with chronic health conditions who does not have a travel history or any known contact with a traveler or infected person. It comes two days after state officials said a woman in Solano County had contracted the illness after no known contact.

“This new case indicates that there is evidence of community transmission but the extent is still not clear,” said Dr. Sara Cody, Health Officer for Santa Clara County and Director of the County of Santa Clara Public Health Department. "This case does signal to us that it's now time to shift how we respond to the novel coronavirus."

Ugh. Keep buying an extra day and another and another. These bonus days may be coming to an end.

[nobody 2,694]

56 minutes ago, Djgb13 said:

I literally hit with you facts about how many people died from flu, from coronavirus, who has mainly died, how the procedure goes, etc. I’m walking to the bar now though. Have fun 

You seem to think that old and sick people dying isn't a problem.  Do you think the US doesn't have sick and old people, or do you think the government won't care about them?

 

That's my point.  We agree who's at risk.  We don't agree on the lengths the government will go to protect them.

[Voltaire 5,322]

Here's a passenger from the Diamond Princess telling his story about coming down with coronavirus.

http://archive.is/ILAAB

[MTSkiBum 1,620]

Bill Gates quote in the New England Journal of Medicine published today.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2003762

 

In the past week, Covid-19 has started behaving a lot like the once-in-a-century pathogen we’ve been worried about. I hope it’s not that bad, but we should assume it will be until we know otherwise.

There are two reasons that Covid-19 is such a threat. First, it can kill healthy adults in addition to elderly people with existing health problems. The data so far suggest that the virus has a case fatality risk around 1%; this rate would make it many times more severe than typical seasonal influenza, putting it somewhere between the 1957 influenza pandemic (0.6%) and the 1918 influenza pandemic (2%).²

Second, Covid-19 is transmitted quite efficiently. The average infected person spreads the disease to two or three others — an exponential rate of increase. There is also strong evidence that it can be transmitted by people who are just mildly ill or even presymptomatic.³ That means Covid-19 will be much harder to contain than the Middle East respiratory syndrome or severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), which were spread much less efficiently and only by symptomatic people. In fact, Covid-19 has already caused 10 times as many cases as SARS in a quarter of the time.

[MTSkiBum 1,620]

1 hour ago, Djgb13 said:

Article is from 5 years ago. I just read about it cause I was bored and figured I’d let you read about it too. What we are dealing with is different. Still not a lot of info to go off of but it’s still not bad for healthy adults 

The article you linked makes my point. We need a large amount of testing and selective quarantines.

Please keep linking scientific articles about coronavirus. I have read many of them and they will only strengthen my argument.

[Djgb13 2,339]

14 minutes ago, MTSkiBum said:

The article you linked makes my point. We need a large amount of testing and selective quarantines.

Please keep linking scientific articles about coronavirus. I have read many of them and they will only strengthen my argument.

Please list, in bullet form, what point you’re trying to make. I will answer them and either correct you or agree with you 

[Djgb13 2,339]

59 minutes ago, nobody said:

You seem to think that old and sick people dying isn't a problem.  Do you think the US doesn't have sick and old people, or do you think the government won't care about them?

 

That's my point.  We agree who's at risk.  We don't agree on the lengths the government will go to protect them.

Bruh what point are you trying to make? Pneumonia for an old person is very deadly. Same with this virus. I don’t know what you’re trying to say but I do know you’re wrong 

[nobody 2,694]

I'm making a couple of points.

1. The response to an outbreak in the US and Europe will result in a significant disruption in the affected communities

2. The resulting disruption will have an affect on the economy and stock market.  Therefore, it is worth the effort to try to contain it.

 

[nobody 2,694]

50 minutes ago, Djgb13 said:

 I don’t know what you’re trying to say but I do know you’re wrong 

There's your problem.  You care about being right.  I care about getting it right.

[Djgb13 2,339]

5 minutes ago, nobody said:

There's your problem.  You care about being right.  I care about getting it right.

Sorry bro but what I care about is the truth of the matter. I try and educate you on it but you seem to want to be scared. So be afraid. Live in fear. Be that worried about the virus I don’t care 

[KSB2424 3,148]

Who is this Djgb13  character?  It’s like a BigPete/Gfiafp/Newbie hybrid.  

[SUXBNME 1,521]

3 hours ago, Voltaire said:

Here's a passenger from the Diamond Princess telling his story about coming down with coronavirus.

http://archive.is/ILAAB

Great, positive story.  
Of course some of the comments at the bottom read like a typical day here..

Quote

I'm very glad Mr. Goldman seems to be recovering and surviving the virus. But this essay still seems like a Mike Pence directed "The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow...." type planted piece to me. Don't intend to sound cynical, but on the other hand I am a resident of the United States in the age of the worst and most corrupt, ignorant, incompetent, vulgar and self-absorbed president in our entire history, Don the Con, whom the GOP so shamelessly inflicted upon us and with such horrendous results. To wit, I am accustomed to government by gaslight. 

 

[Intense Observer 344]

6 hours ago, Voltaire said:

Here's a passenger from the Diamond Princess telling his story about coming down with coronavirus.

http://archive.is/ILAAB

Every sky screamer should read that.

Looking at you MTSkiBiotch and nobody.

[Intense Observer 344]

Just a reminder, 16000 Americans have died this season from the flu. 

 

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/1300-people-died-flu-year/story?id=67754182

 

So far, 16,000 people have died and 280,000 people have been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season, according to preliminary estimates from the CDC.

"The flu season began early this year and took off aggressively," added Schaffner. "It began prominently in the southeastern states but quickly spread. So far, there is no sign that the momentum of the annual epidemic is slowing."

The majority of states, as well as New York City and Puerto Rico, are seeing high flu activity.

In total, the CDC estimates that 29 million people have gotten the flu so far this season.

[Cloaca du jour 2,151]

Usa Today touting empty shelves at costco trying to induce panic.  Typical MsM.  Of course the link is 404 now but they leave the headline up.

[MTSkiBum 1,620]

1 hour ago, Intense Observer said:

Every sky screamer should read that.

Looking at you MTSkiBiotch and nobody.

?? I was the one that gave him a like for posting the article.

[Strike 5,601]

7 hours ago, MTSkiBum said:

Bill Gates quote in the New England Journal of Medicine published today.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2003762

 

In the past week, Covid-19 has started behaving a lot like the once-in-a-century pathogen we’ve been worried about. I hope it’s not that bad, but we should assume it will be until we know otherwise.

There are two reasons that Covid-19 is such a threat. First, it can kill healthy adults in addition to elderly people with existing health problems. The data so far suggest that the virus has a case fatality risk around 1%; this rate would make it many times more severe than typical seasonal influenza, putting it somewhere between the 1957 influenza pandemic (0.6%) and the 1918 influenza pandemic (2%).²

Second, Covid-19 is transmitted quite efficiently. The average infected person spreads the disease to two or three others — an exponential rate of increase. There is also strong evidence that it can be transmitted by people who are just mildly ill or even presymptomatic.³ That means Covid-19 will be much harder to contain than the Middle East respiratory syndrome or severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), which were spread much less efficiently and only by symptomatic people. In fact, Covid-19 has already caused 10 times as many cases as SARS in a quarter of the time.

Did you read the article I posted from the NEJM?  The one with analysis from, you know, actual doctors? 

[MTSkiBum 1,620]

18 minutes ago, Strike said:

Did you read the article I posted from the NEJM?  The one with analysis from, you know, actual doctors? 

 

I did read it previously and I am sorry for not commenting. They make good points about not knowing the denominator. I tried to also make that similar point in many of my own posts.

 

I agree that they lay out one possible outcome of this outbreak, it could be that there are many more minor cases out there and the mortality rate is much lower than what we think today. Something similar happened with the swine flu I believe.

 

10 hours ago, MTSkiBum said:

Italy is up to a 2.5% mortality rate. Although this is almost certainly because it is in an area of the country that skews older and most likely a large number of undiagnosed cases. On the negative side is that fact that it takes a can take a long time for some people to pass away as per the link in some of my previous posts.

 

https://www.thelocal.it/20200228/italys-coronavirus-death-toll-rises-to-21-as-821-cases-confirmed

 

[MTSkiBum 1,620]

12 minutes ago, Strike said:

Did you read the article I posted from the NEJM?  The one with analysis from, you know, actual doctors? 

Also, I apologize if I have attacked you in the past. I am not sure if the snarkiness towards me is deserved as I do not remember ever saying negative posts towards you.

 

I have said negative things to other posters in the past, and maybe that included you and I have forgotten. If that is the case I am sorry.

 

 

[TimmySmith 2,782]

14 hours ago, MTSkiBum said:

It is funny, I post how my opinion could be wrong and could change and the other side is posting how I would have to be unintelligent to have my opinion.

You're a numbers guy I can see.  Don't fall for conclusions put out by the hysteria squad. We have no idea how deadly this is for the population, we just know its virulant for the very few that have caught it so far. Which is 100% typical for any new virus. 

[jerryskids 6,853]

6 hours ago, KSB2424 said:

Who is this Djgb13  character?  It’s like a BigPete/Gfiafp/Newbie hybrid.  

He had some beer muscles going last night it seems...

I don't know what the argument is.  This virus has already disrupted our supply chain and impacted our economy.  It has impacted my wife's company which is a major electronics supplier to Asia.  It is reasonable for it to get worse here before it gets better. 

[Utilit99 4,099]

Talk about fear mongering. Here's the title of an NBC news article I saw today. Nice throwing that "information" from an  unknown source out there for people like Newbie to count as factual.

Number of coronavirus cases from unknown source growing in U.S.

[Fireballer 2,644]

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H. L. Mencken

[The Observer 641]

6 minutes ago, Utilit99 said:

Talk about fear mongering. Here's the title of an NBC news article I saw today. Nice throwing that "information" from an  unknown source out there for people like Newbie to count as factual.

Number of coronavirus cases from unknown source growing in U.S.

It's a big story. All the other cases are from those who have travelled to countries or been exposed to people who have it. We now have four cases of people who have not traveled or knowingly been around anyone with the virus. 

If you don't understand why those cases are more alarming than the others, then this topic is just too deep for your mental capacity. 

[Utilit99 4,099]

42 minutes ago, The Observer said:

It's a big story. All the other cases are from those who have travelled to countries or been exposed to people who have it. We now have four cases of people who have not traveled or knowingly been around anyone with the virus. 

If you don't understand why those cases are more alarming than the others, then this topic is just too deep for your mental capacity. 

Are you the unknown source? Or did that "source" call you and let you know about it?

And depth of mental capacity is not something you of all people should be talking about because you have none.

On the other hand, you are at the top of the line in having TDS. So there's something you can be proud of. I guess.

[Utilit99 4,099]

48 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H. L. Mencken

Hence.....Newbie needing a socialist to run his life for him.

[The Observer 641]

7 minutes ago, Utilit99 said:

Are you the unknown source? Or did that "source" call you and let you know about it?

And depth of mental capacity is not something you of all people should be talking about because you have none.

On the other hand, you are at the top of the line in having TDS. So there's something you can be proud of. I guess.

As I thought. You have no idea why those four patients are more concerning than the other 60.  Carry on with your ignorant trolling.

[Utilit99 4,099]

15 minutes ago, The Observer said:

As I thought. You have no idea why those four patients are more concerning than the other 60.  Carry on with your ignorant trolling.

Keep desiring the government to take care of you because you can't. Carry on you ignorant pvssy liberal.

[The Observer 641]

Just now, Utilit99 said:

Keep desiring the government to take care of you because you can't. Carry on you ignorant pvssy liberal.

Your talking points are adorable. Not sure why you would ever think I want the government to take care of me. I make twice what you do. But if it makes you feel better, keep on screaming. 

[Utilit99 4,099]

3 minutes ago, The Observer said:

Your talking points are adorable.

Yours are idiotic. Keep up with the full blown TDS and you will continue to hear the same replies to your idiocy on a daily basis. Your liberal  narrative drives others to vote conservative republican. Keep up the good work.

[nobody 2,694]

9 hours ago, Djgb13 said:

Sorry bro but what I care about is the truth of the matter. I try and educate you on it but you seem to want to be scared. So be afraid. Live in fear. Be that worried about the virus I don’t care 

I'm not scared.  I'm trying to understand the impact, so I can properly invest.  This could be a once in a decade opportunity if we can identify the key indicators that will signal a turn-around.  If you gave me a compelling reason why the response in Europe and the US wouldn't be as strong as what's happening in South Korea and Japan, I would listen.

By the way, the best argument you can make is probably the spread of the virus will most likely diminish when it gets warmer, but I guess your degree didn't teach you that.

[nobody 2,694]

1 hour ago, Utilit99 said:

Talk about fear mongering. Here's the title of an NBC news article I saw today. Nice throwing that "information" from an  unknown source out there for people like Newbie to count as factual.

Number of coronavirus cases from unknown source growing in U.S.

You're misunderstanding what they mean by "unknown source"

It's not saying an unknown source told them about the cases.  It's saying that patients contracted the virus from an unknown source.  In other words, they don't have a direct connection to affected areas of people.

The implication of that the virus has already spread to communities.

[Strike 5,601]

3 hours ago, MTSkiBum said:

 

I did read it previously and I am sorry for not commenting. They make good points about not knowing the denominator. I tried to also make that similar point in many of my own posts.

I agree that they lay out one possible outcome of this outbreak, it could be that there are many more minor cases out there and the mortality rate is much lower than what we think today. Something similar happened with the swine flu I believe.

 

 

3 hours ago, MTSkiBum said:

Also, I apologize if I have attacked you in the past. I am not sure if the snarkiness towards me is deserved as I do not remember ever saying negative posts towards you.

I have said negative things to other posters in the past, and maybe that included you and I have forgotten. If that is the case I am sorry.

 

You have not attacked me in the past.  I'm not trying to be particularly "snarky"; if anything just having a little fun.  I'm not taking this thread as seriously as you obviously are.  My only issue is that you're going out of your way to post articles that are negative and paint a "chicken little" scenario.  IMO you ignore other points of view.  Then you ignored my post about a NEJM article with analysis by Doctors but posted one of your own from the same publication, that quotes Bill focking gates, the most unethical businessperson this country has produced in at least 50 years who has no medical background at all.  I just wish you'd be more balanced.  Our mortality rate in the U.S. is still 0 percent if I'm not mistaken.

[Utilit99 4,099]

From the other thread. Newbie's black god Hussien's response to things like this.

So if the good economy was a carry over from Hussein's years in office, was this as well?

  On 10/3/2014 at 1:28 PM, Baker Boy said:

April 1st 2010

 

The Obama administration has quietly scrapped plans to enact sweeping new federal quarantine regulations that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention touted four years ago as critical to protecting Americans from dangerous diseases spread by travelers.

The regulations, proposed in 2005 during the Bush administration amid fears of avian flu, would have given the federal government additional powers to detain sick airline passengers and those exposed to certain diseases. They also would have expanded requirements for airlines to report ill passengers to the CDC and mandated that airlines collect and maintain contact information for fliers in case they later needed to be traced as part of an investigation into an outbreak.

 

Airline and civil liberties groups, which had opposed the rules, praised their withdrawal.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/washington/2010-04-01-quarantine_N.htm

[Hardcore troubadour 15,517]

1 hour ago, Utilit99 said:

From the other thread. Newbie's black god Hussien's response to things like this.

So if the good economy was a carry over from Hussein's years in office, was this as well?

April 1st 2010

 

The Obama administration has quietly scrapped plans to enact sweeping new federal quarantine regulations that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention touted four years ago as critical to protecting Americans from dangerous diseases spread by travelers.

The regulations, proposed in 2005 during the Bush administration amid fears of avian flu, would have given the federal government additional powers to detain sick airline passengers and those exposed to certain diseases. They also would have expanded requirements for airlines to report ill passengers to the CDC and mandated that airlines collect and maintain contact information for fliers in case they later needed to be traced as part of an investigation into an outbreak.

 

Airline and civil liberties groups, which had opposed the rules, praised their withdrawal.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/washington/2010-04-01-quarantine_N.htm

Yeah, didn’t want hurt feelings.